Robin Van Persie - Is it time to sell?

keane2097

roryc wrote: »

Expecting logic on an opinion is hardly the right setting to open a discussion on the matter now is it!

For anyone not used to gambling/chance statistical analysis, EV stands for Expected Value. It deals with variance. So if you were in this exact situation with RVP 1000 times, how often do you think it would be the right decision. Anything above 500 is +EV, anything below is -EV.

Generally in mathematical concepts like this the edge is minute, like in the situation with taking a points hit for Wilson last week. I think it was a very close call but fractionally +EV. As it turned out it would have been a bad move as he only scored 1 point and players like Demel somehow got 2, but with all factors taken into account beforehand I think it was slightly +EV.

In this situation I think it is a bit higher, probably 55-60%. But there are so many variables to take into account that trying to work out an exact figure would be close to impossible, hence why I think it's a bit silly for people asking me to prove it. I generally do rough calculations when there are a lot of variables, the Wilson one was a lot easier to calculate.

I wasn't asking you to prove it, fair enough if you understood "citation needed" as a request for complex calculations rather than the standard contextual "please expand" meaning. I figured I clarified further in the second post asking you for some logic behind the statement but you were probably too far along the path of thinking you were in an argument to give a decent response at that stage.

Since you made the comment I figured you had some back of the napkin stuff done on points you're likely to win/lose with/without RVP over the next couple of weeks that might have been useful for the people considering the move at the moment.

Captain Bob

Just sold HIM,
next fixture is not garranted + CL games + premier league won+Rooney factor
too much risk for that kind of "money"

YeatsCounty

I'm leaning towards selling him, but that decision is fraught with difficulties.

1) I have Pog as well who I plan to get rid of for Lambert. I need to take a hit to get Lambert in regardless, but should I use the funds from RVP's sale to fund it or should I keep RVP and downgrade Cameron instead?

2) Who do I replace RVP with? I already have Suarez and I don't want to double up on Liverpool strikers. Arsenal's options are inconsistent, at best. Aguero and City have been poor for weeks and he could miss GW 29 also. Rooney could miss GW 29.

3) If he plays against Norwich, I could lose a lot of money on him. I do have a buy back plan in place (so long Fellaini) but I would like to avoid losing 0.5+ if possible.


Edit: Decided to keep RVP for now, will re-assess at the weekend.

Liam O

I'm basically trying to decide if Hazard/Lampard and Suarez will outscore RVP and Pablo Hernandez the next few weeks to make my decision, not really bothered about the money, been an abortion of a season anyway.

FutureGuy

I think I might leave RVP until next gw until we see the result of the CL game with Madrid, who tore Barcelona a new arsehole last night.

I have a front 7 of Mata, Michu, Bale, Sissoko, Walcott, Sturridge and Lambert for GW28. I can rest Van Persie this week and take it from there.

If I did buy Suarez, I'd have to drop one of the above 7 which is tough.

keane2097

FutureGuy wrote: »

I think I might leave RVP until next gw until we see the result of the CL game with Madrid, who tore Barcelona a new arsehole last night.

I have a front 7 of Mata, Michu, Bale, Sissoko, Walcott, Sturridge and Lambert for GW28. I can rest Van Persie this week and take it from there.

If I did buy Suarez, I'd have to drop one of the above 7 which is tough.

Same boat exactly.

Iused2likebusts

FutureGuy wrote: »

I think I might leave RVP until next gw until we see the result of the CL game with Madrid, who tore Barcelona a new arsehole last night.

I have a front 7 of Mata, Michu, Bale, Sissoko, Walcott, Sturridge and Lambert for GW28. I can rest Van Persie this week and take it from there.

If I did buy Suarez, I'd have to drop one of the above 7 which is tough.

true would be hard to leave any of those out this week. Mata is the only one that concerns me I really hope he doesnt start tonight as that would mean him playing last thurs, sunday, tonight so sat would look fairly likely for a 15 min cameo from him.
If your selling rvp this week it would be purely to limit your losses on buying him back. Id say rvp will be 13.7/13.8 after the madrid game and suarez will be gone up .2.

keane2097

Just thinking there, RVP played about 20 minutes in the Cup and 40 in the EPL at the weekend. Those are his last two games, right?

So if he doesn't play Saturday, by the time the Madrid game rolls around he will have played an hour or so since the 13th of February, which will be three weeks on.

For a player that has said himself he prefers not to take rests that would be bordering on not enough gametime. The bang on the hip seems like it was pretty much trivial to me, doubt that will have any impact on his selection at all.

I'll not be surprised if he starts this weekend.

moreau

keane2097 wrote: »

Just thinking there, RVP played about 20 minutes in the Cup and 40 in the EPL at the weekend. Those are his last two games, right?

So if he doesn't play Saturday, by the time the Madrid game rolls around he will have played an hour or so since the 13th of February, which will be three weeks on.

For a player that has said himself he prefers not to take rests that would be bordering on not enough gametime. The bang on the hip seems like it was pretty much trivial to me, doubt that will have any impact on his selection at all.

I'll not be surprised if he starts this weekend.

Good points!

I just hope Fergie comes out and lets us know before transfer deadline. If he was def injured I will be transferring him out.

I don't think Fergie will though:(

Iused2likebusts

keane2097 wrote: »

Just thinking there, RVP played about 20 minutes in the Cup and 40 in the EPL at the weekend. Those are his last two games, right?

So if he doesn't play Saturday, by the time the Madrid game rolls around he will have played an hour or so since the 13th of February, which will be three weeks on.

For a player that has said himself he prefers not to take rests that would be bordering on not enough gametime. The bang on the hip seems like it was pretty much trivial to me, doubt that will have any impact on his selection at all.

I'll not be surprised if he starts this weekend.

I do agree with that way of thinking I do feel he still wont start but think because he didnt get 90 mins against QPR it gives him more chance of starting. As you say he will have gone 3 weeks without playing 90 mins. Thing is rooney also needs game time as does kagawa. The way I see it even if he does start a minimum amount of people will capt him( too much of a risk ) so its not as much of a big deal.(unless he scores a hat trick).

Melion

This will come back to bite a lot of people in the arse by the end of the season. Shipping him out now is a big mistake if you cant afford to get him back in

Iused2likebusts

Melion wrote: »

This will come back to bite a lot of people in the arse by the end of the season. Shipping him out now is a big mistake if you cant afford to get him back in

It will also come back to bite you by not having the flexibility to move him in and out between now and the end of the season. GW 26 and GW 28 were the ideal times to give yourself that flexibility.
Ill be keeping the money for RVP but I feel the ship has sailed with regard to him being a must have and a capt every week option. Ill have him the weeks I want to captain him and feel hes guaranteed to start.

Santi101

Strongly thinking about it now.

But tbh if I get him out, I'd say that will be it...rather than worrying about getting him back in a few weeks.

roryc

For me it's partly a gamble on United going through against Real. If they get knocked out I think I'll have to bring him back in GW30.

Not having RVP later in the season with United out of the CL and a DGW could be suicide.

the whole year inn

roryc wrote: »

For me it's partly a gamble on United going through against Real. If they get knocked out I think I'll have to bring him back in GW30.

Not having RVP later in the season with United out of the CL and a DGW could be suicide.

Surly its worth the risk espically for these two weeks with his price dropping and for me any way Suarez price rising I should be ok.

14m on the bench not playing for two weeks is crazy.

Santi101

Worth noting that Van Persie slowed down noticeably for us last season in the last 10 games or so...something like 4 goals in the last 10.

Doubt he'll suffer the same malaise as United close in on a title but he hasnt looked as sharp in recent weeks. Tbh I'd say he'll score a good number between now and May but not to the extent that he cannot be done without in this game if you can get a good striker and upgrade one/two mids and maybe a defender who can bridge the points gap.

It's still quite the gamble, I've looked at it once or twice today and played around with the extra cash which makes it tempting but still you sense it might be a game-changing decision. Who knows.

Iused2likebusts

hope chelsea win tonight as if utd play them in the cup rather than boro theres much less of a chance of rvp starting against norwich imo.
Sat Nor
Tues real
sun Chelsea/boro
The carling cup meaningless champs lge games crew(smalling ,anderson, hernandez) will get a run out in one of the games either side of real.

moreau

Santi101 wrote: »

Worth noting that Van Persie slowed down noticeably for us last season in the last 10 games or so...something like 4 goals in the last 10.

Doubt he'll suffer the same malaise as United close in on a title but he hasnt looked as sharp in recent weeks. Tbh I'd say he'll score a good number between now and May but not to the extent that he cannot be done without in this game if you can get a good striker and upgrade one/two mids and maybe a defender who can bridge the points gap.

It's still quite the gamble, I've looked at it once or twice today and played around with the extra cash which makes it tempting but still you sense it might be a game-changing decision. Who knows.

I have had the same gut feeling about rvp, he hasn't looked as sharp and maybe tiring a bit. Good point about last year, replacing him with Rooney and/or aguero worked wonders last year.

@roryc (or anyone else transferring him out) : have you considered NOT getting rvp back?

roryc

moreau wrote: »

@roryc (or anyone else transferring him out) : have you considered NOT getting rvp back?

I'm going into GW30 with Suarez and Sturridge up front, with £4m in the bank.

If RVP looks worth getting back in that week I will, if not I'll leave it and stick with two Liverpool strikers as they have a lovely run after the Spurs game. I won't be spending the £4m though, luckily I have a high enough value team that I can leave it there.

If/when United have a DGW I'll almost certainly get RVP or possible Rooney in, it would be silly not to.

Iused2likebusts

roryc wrote: »

I'm going into GW30 with Suarez and Sturridge up front, with £4m in the bank.

If RVP looks worth getting back in that week I will, if not I'll leave it and stick with two Liverpool strikers as they have a lovely run after the Spurs game. I won't be spending the £4m though, luckily I have a high enough value team that I can leave it there.

If/when United have a DGW I'll almost certainly get RVP or possible Rooney in, it would be silly not to.

What would make rvp worth getting back in for a home game against reading if you have the money surely its a no brainer. I will also have suarez and sturridge for gw 29 and if liverpool win 6 0 and both players get a hat trick I will still be transferring one of them out to make rvp capt against reading.

roryc

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

What would make rvp worth getting back in for a home game against reading if you have the money surely its a no brainer. I will also have suarez and sturridge for gw 29 and if liverpool win 6 0 and both players get a hat trick I will still be transferring one of them out to make rvp capt against reading.

He could be injured/get injured. Also If United get through against Real he could be rested. Unlikely but possible.

I'm planning on bringing him back but tbh would prefer not to as it forces peoples hands who hold on to him. I hope his hip falls off tbh

Iused2likebusts

roryc wrote: »

He could be injured/get injured. Also If United get through against Real he could be rested. Unlikely but possible.

I'm planning on bringing him back but tbh would prefer not to as it forces peoples hands who hold on to him. I hope his hip falls off tbh

Barring injury hes back in for me he wont be rested. I agree with your previous shout if utd are through in cl he could miss the gw 31 game against sunderland. I think our ideal scenario is for him to get sent off against chelsea making him suspended for the reading game

keane2097

When are those FA Cup games on?

Iused2likebusts

keane2097 wrote: »

When are those FA Cup games on?

Sun mar 10 the first team will be needed for that one

keane2097

Ok I've decided to get rid for the next couple of weeks as well, one more on the bandwagon!

I currently have RVP, Sturridge & Lambert.

Is Suarez the best option? I'm not really pushed about the whole coverage thing for this one - Sturridge is there and he's staying there as part of my long term strategy unless I decide to kick RVP for good - I'm purely worried about what individual striker is going to return the most points with any price increases a welcome boost as well.

Suarez is the stand out candidate right?

roryc

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Barring injury hes back in for me he wont be rested. I agree with your previous shout if utd are through in cl he could miss the gw 31 game against sunderland. I think our ideal scenario is for him to get sent off against chelsea making him suspended for the reading game

He'll never get sent off, too nice! And he's Dutch. Dutch people are 10 different kinds of awesome.

keane2097 wrote: »

Suarez is the stand out candidate right?

IMO yes. Liverpool have some cracking fixtures coming up and all goals should come through Suarez or Sturridge.

You'll have same front three as me.

Jax Teller

Sturridge is a doubt for the weekend , might make you reconsider Keano

roryc

Where have you heard this? Good news for me actually.

I would happily avoid bringing Sturridge in and opt for someone like Cisse instead.

Jax Teller

http://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/latest-news/reds-to-check-on-sturridge-fitness

keane2097

Jax Teller wrote: »

Sturridge is a doubt for the weekend , might make you reconsider Keano

Heh - if anything it's even more a reason to bring in Suarez!