The importance of the league in football

68Murph68

With the league back in action at the weekend I was wondering how important people think it is? I was looking at some of the results in the Championship and in the League and how they compare in the same year.

Since 2008 (when the current league structure was adopted) the All-Ireland winners have been as follows

2012 Donegal
2011 Dublin
2010 Cork
2009 Kerry
2008 Tyrone

Their position in the league for that year was as follows

2012 6th
2011 1st
2010 2nd
2009 1st
2008 5th

Its only a small sample size but basically there seems to be a pretty strong correlation between league position and getting to the business end of the Championship.

To look at bit further I had a look at how the losing All-Ireland finalists did in the league

2012 Mayo
2011 Kerry
2010 Down
2009 Cork
2008 Kerry

2012 4th
2011 3rd
2010 9th
2009 10th
2008 2nd

Obviously 9th and 10th are teams that came first and second in Division Two.
So basically unless you are in Division One (or get promoted from Division Two) your chances of getting to an All-Ireland arent that great.

Seems to be more evidence on the side of if a team is going well in the league its a good sign of their prospects for the Championship.

I also had a look at the losing semi-finalists and their league position

2012 Cork Dublin
2011 Mayo Donegal
2010 Dublin Kildare
2009 Tyrone Meath
2008 Cork Wexford

2012 2nd 5th
2011 5th 9th
2010 3rd 14th
2009 4th 13th
2008 13th 18th

Its worth noting that in 2008 because of the change from the previous league structure things weren't as settled in terms of the rankings which explains why you had a team who came 13th and 18th in the semis.

The things that jumped out for me is that

1) over the last five years league form has become more useful in judging how a team will do in the Championship

Compare the league positions of the four semifinalists last year compared to in 2008

2012 6th 4th 2nd 5th
2011 1st 3rd 5th 9th
2010 2nd 9th 3rd 14th
2009 1st 10th 4th 13th
2008 5th 2nd 13th 18th


2) no side who got relegated in the league got to even a semi-final place, so if your side does get relegated in the league the chances are you can book holidays for August without too much worry [not exactly all that surprising]

Obviously there are some major caveats the main one being related to the fact that the sample size is relatively small. It will be very interesting to see how this continues to develop over the next few years.

To turn it on its head - can anyone imagine a situation where a side for the 3rd/4th division win the All-Ireland?

Fr Tod Umptious

It has different importance to different teams at different times I suppose.

I reckon last year Mayo needed to get to the Semi so they would at least get one more game before the long layoff until a Connuaght SF in late June 24th
This year they may aim for Div 1 status for 2014 and then experiment as they have a big game much earlier on May 19th v Galway.

I think Dublin will go all out to win it this year and establisdh a bit of momentium for the yaer ahead.

Kildare will also like to do well to get big game experience in a semi or final

Donegal will be happy to sat up, they need the rest.


there was a good point made on radio 1 last Sunday that some teams in Div 2 would prefer to stay there a few season before getting promoted to Div 1, beacuse Div 1 would be too much of a step for them, Westmeath was their example

davegrohl48

The only way a Division 3 side would win the league would be a close match to Meath this year.
- A record of beating good teams on occasion in championship
- Talented forwards (All Ireland unwinnable without)
- Physically big (All Ireland unwinnable without)
Simply a team with plenty individual talent but an inconsistent few seasons having them down in division 3.

Always_Running

68Murph68 wrote: »

To turn it on its head - can anyone imagine a situation where a side for the 3rd/4th division win the All-Ireland?

At the moment no and it's unlikely any side from this years Div 2 will win the All Ireland either.

Dirty Dingus McGee

I think that the current situation where it is highly unlikely a team from division 2 can win the all ireland show how important the league is.At this moment in time the league pretty much reflects the strength of teams and where they stand as championship contenders.7 of last years quarter finalists are in division 1 now.

The league get more importanat the lower down you go as teams will never improve if they are stiuck in the lower divisions so there is a massive emphasis on getting promoted for the teams outside of division 1.In division 4 7 of the 8 teams are legitimate promotion contenders and teams and it should be a terrific race to get promoted

Always_Running

Maybe but it wasn't always the case. Sligo,Offaly,Roscommon etc have won provincial titles from playing in the div 3,4. Down were div 3 team in 2009 by 2010 they almost won the All Ireland.

Squareball2010

68Murph68 wrote: »

With the league back in action at the weekend I was wondering how important people think it is? I was looking at some of the results in the Championship and in the League and how they compare in the same year.

Since 2008 (when the current league structure was adopted) the All-Ireland winners have been as follows

2012 Donegal
2011 Dublin
2010 Cork
2009 Kerry
2008 Tyrone

Their position in the league for that year was as follows

2012 6th
2011 1st *
2010 2nd *
2009 1st
2008 5th

Small mistake here in that Cork have actually won the league for the past 3 years running (4 if you include division 2 triumph in 09) so you've them slightly mixed up there in 11 and 10. But same point being made I guess. As a Corkman had to point it out though!


To turn it on its head - can anyone imagine a situation where a side for the 3rd/4th division win the All-Ireland?

Absolutely NOT. Realistically these teams have too much ground to make up on the leading pack and it will take some time before they catch them all and go on to win the AI in my view. Obviously anything can happen on any given day and any team can beat anyone if luck and things go their way but you need more than one shock result to win an AI if you're plying your trade in div 3, 4 and dare I say even division 2! Division one teams have the advantage of coming up against and playing the best teams in the country week in week out int he league...there is no let up. Granted the intensity and challenge presented is not the same as in championship but there is no massive step up when these teams play each other come June/July/August/September unlike say the division 3/4 teams when they play championship. Long way to go but at least things aren't as bad as they are in the hurling. The gap is ten times wider when it comes to the small ball

Tom Joad

Drop the red font dude it hurts my eyes^^

Realistically there is not a chance of any team in Division 3 or 4 winning an All Ireland. Meath have the potential to do a Down and get to the final but that's just based on their history and the fact they are Meath. Outside that the teams in Division 3 and 4 are a long way off.

It does show the importance of the league to teams preparations and especially with so many new managers - if they don't show something in the league they are under serious pressure. League performance is getting more and more important and can set the tone for a teams season. Very few teams treat the league lightly anymore.

iDave

The league wont decide who will win the All Ireland bit it will give you a general idea of where teams stand. All the recent AI finalists are up in Div 1.

Boom__Boom

I've updated this post from last year relating to the importance of form in the league and doing well in the Championship.

This year has added more evidence that if you want to do well in the Championship, you need to be doing well in Division 1.

Since 2008 (when the current league structure was adopted) the All-Ireland winners have been as follows

2013 Dublin
2012 Donegal
2011 Dublin
2010 Cork
2009 Kerry
2008 Tyrone

Their position in the league for that year was as follows

2013 1st
2012 6th
2011 2nd
2010 2nd
2009 1st
2008 5th

Its only a small sample size but basically there seems to be a pretty strong correlation between league position and getting to the business end of the Championship.

How the losing All-Ireland finalists did in the league

2013 Mayo
2012 Mayo
2011 Kerry
2010 Down
2009 Cork
2008 Kerry

2013 4th
2012 4th
2011 3rd
2010 9th
2009 10th
2008 2nd

Obviously 9th and 10th are teams that came first and second in Division Two.
So basically unless you are in Division One (or get promoted from Division Two) your chances of getting to an All-Ireland arent that great.

Seems to be more evidence on the side of if a team is going well in the league its a good sign of their prospects for the Championship.

The losing semi-finalists and their league position

2013 Tyrone Kerry
2012 Cork Dublin
2011 Mayo Donegal
2010 Dublin Kildare
2009 Tyrone Meath
2008 Cork Wexford

2013 2nd 6th
2012 2nd 5th
2011 5th 9th
2010 3rd 14th
2009 4th 13th
2008 13th 18th

Compare the league positions of the four semifinalists last year compared to in 2008

2013 1st 2nd 4th 6th
2012 6th 4th 2nd 5th
2011 2nd 3rd 5th 9th
2010 2nd 9th 3rd 14th
2009 1st 10th 4th 13th
2008 5th 2nd 13th 18th

Its worth noting that in 2008 because of the change from the previous league structure things weren't as settled in terms of the rankings which explains why you had a team who came 13th and 18th in the semis.

Basically over the last six years, league form has become more useful in judging how a team will do in the Championship.

Also it would be interesting to see how the two teams who were relegated from Division 1 perform in the Championship given how poorly both Donegal and Down did this year.

If you hear someone saying "it's only the league" there's a serious amount of evidence that person doesn't have much of a clue.

manofwisdom

Cavan,Meath,Monaghan all had good championships from the platform of Div three. Donegal tried to ignore their poor league and thought things would fall into place for the championship. Did Westmeath,Derry put too much into the league? both were very flat in the championship.

Fr Tod Umptious

manofwisdom wrote: »

Cavan,Meath,Monaghan all had good championships from the platform of Div three. Donegal tried to ignore their poor league and thought things would fall into place for the championship. Did Westmeath,Derry put too much into the league? both were very flat in the championship.

Derry lost by a point to Cavan in injury time, had they won they would have faced London and more than likely made it to a QF.
So they were not that far off going deeper in the Championship

See my earlier post in this thread re Westmeath getting to Div 1 'too early'
They may be a long way off Div 1 standard at the moment