RaboDirectPRO12 Race to Playoffs 2012/13

decisions

Ospreys

CatFromHue wrote: »

Should Munster not be on 43pts?

Yep, think so.

That was a very quick edit :pac:

[Jackass]

Munster

Good results this weekend from a Leinster point of view. For Munster and Ospreys you'd have to say that's a bit of a disastor, neither of them will be happy with a draw from that, both needed the win.

I think the top 3 now will battle it out for top spot, I think their play-off spots are safe, it's now down to Scarlets, Ospreys and Munster to contest the final spot. I wouldn't say it's game over for Munster, but they'll need the Scarlets to completely implode and to be done a few favours by other teams in beating Ospreys - Leinster being one of those teams - and they'll need to win all their remaining games, including two tough interpro home games against Connacht and Leinster and an away trip to league leaders Glasgow who are in rich form.

It's not over yet, but they're teeing off on the 18th needing a hole in one to make the cut.

Makes the Munster Leinster game even bigger now, Leinster will need the win to try and top the table, Munster will need the win to keep play-off hopes alive.

P_1

Would certainly be interesting to see the reactions of certain blazers should Connacht finish ahead of Munster

durkadurka

Munster

Hard to see them gain seven points on scarlets who have this run in

SCARLETS:
Zebre (H), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)
Scarlets could very easily win each of them. Hard to see them not winning at least three.

[Jackass]

Munster

Well Treviso have shown they're no mugs and Glasgow will be going all out to get a home semi or even top spot, so those two would be tough games I'd imagine, but Zebre at home should be nailed on 4 points minimum, Dragons have been a joke this season and they should win that and Cardiff haven't been much better and you'd fancy Scarlets to win at home.

Even just those 3 wins as worst case scenario for Scarlets, plus the 7 point lead over Munster, would mean Munster would need 20 points from their last 5 games (i.e. win them all) whilst also hoping Scarlets get no BP wins or losing bonus point in 2 defeats to Treviso or Glasgow at the Parc Y Scarlets .... seems unlikely alright.

One thing is for sure though, it's out of their hands now.

[Jackass]

Munster

Regarding Connacht, I actually think it would be great for Irish rugby for Connacht to get into the Heineken Cup on merit, even if Leinster were to qualify Munster by winning the Amlin or something, just to force the IRFU to reconsider the poor cousin attitude to Connacht and perhaps just allow the provinces to evolve naturally and not try and control everything and not focus on one province to prevent it from collapsing and stifle another province and prevent it from growing.

It needs to occur naturally and equally. The IRFU, whilst masterminding the success of Irish rugby through the set up in professionalism, are now the worst thing holding it back.

irishbucsfan

Munster

[Jackass] wrote: »

Regarding Connacht, I actually think it would be great for Irish rugby for Connacht to get into the Heineken Cup on merit, even if Leinster were to qualify Munster by winning the Amlin or something, just to force the IRFU to reconsider the poor cousin attitude to Connacht and perhaps just allow the provinces to evolve naturally and not try and control everything and not focus on one province to prevent it from collapsing and stifle another province and prevent it from growing.

It needs to occur naturally and equally. The IRFU, whilst masterminding the success of Irish rugby through the set up in professionalism, are now the worst thing holding it back.

The IRFU are already increasing Connacht's funding

durkadurka

Munster

Ospreys run in is interesting
Three handy games first, keeping them in the hunt right up to the two massive games at the end away to Gla and Leinster.

Dragons (H), Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

Could be that Leinster have the chance to eliminate them in the last game.

thomond2006

Ospreys

TABLE AFTER ROUND 17
Glasgow 61
Ulster 61
Leinster 59
Scarlets 50

---

Ospreys 49
Munster 43
Treviso 35
Cardiff 33
Connacht 32
Edinburgh 24
Dragons 23
Zebre 8

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

---

REMAINING FIXTURES

ULSTER:
Edinburgh (A), Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Cardiff (H)

GLASGOW:
Leinster (A), Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)

LEINSTER:
Glasgow (H), Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)

OSPREYS:
Dragons (H), Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

SCARLETS:
Zebre (H), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

MUNSTER:
Connacht (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

I think Munster will get four wins at best, that won't be enough given Scarlets' run in.

Ospreys will need to win their next three games to have a chance, with their last two games being trips to Glasgow and Leinster.

Borders no.2

Munster are done for after tonight. Scarlets should make it but not sure do I trust them.

durkadurka

Munster

I reckon:

4 wins for Leinster = 75
3 wins for Gla and Uls = 73
4 wins for Sca= 66
4 wins for ospreys = 65
Leaving Munster needing 23 points. Can't see then getting more than maybe 19- 4 wins including three TBPs

molloyjh

Not sure i get where people are coming from re Connacht finishing ahead of Munster. They are 9 points behind with nothing but tough fixtures remaining. It's not going to happen.

Don't see Munster making the play-offs now. I reckon Scarlets will make 4th spot. The race for top spot is all going to come down to bonus points I reckon. It's going to be tight. Ulster have a slight advantage I reckon, but if they make the SF of the HEC then they might need to focus on that at the expense of the league.

irishbucsfan

Munster

molloyjh wrote: »

Not sure i get where people are coming from re Connacht finishing ahead of Munster. They are 9 points behind with nothing but tough fixtures remaining. It's not going to happen.

One of those fixtures is aganist Munster though. A possible 4 point swing.

But the fact Munster finish up with fixtures against the Dragons and Zebre should really guarrantee them finishing ahead of Connacht. They probably only need to beat them next weekend.

What Munster really need is a win in Scotstoun (very tough) or a win against Leinster. If they win aganist Connacht, one of those games, Zebre and Dragons then they could be a playoff team.

Problem is that if Scarlets win 3 of their remaining 5 games then Munster probably won't qualify. And Scarlets play Zebre, Cardiff, Dragons and Treviso!

vienne86

Ospreys

I think Scarletts will make it - they have a handy enough run in. Leinster's last match will be against Ospreys, and it may need a win to keep them out of the play offs....which would be some incentive.....we owe them!

ArmaniJeanss

Out of interest if Connacht did finish ahead of Munster (obviously unlikely) is it written in stone that they would definitely get the HCup spot, or is still at the IRFUs discretion?

Arguably (whilst I'd consider it wrong) it could be considered better from both a financial pov and the international team pov (in theory the IRFUs ultimate mandate) for Munster to have the HCup spot instead of Connacht.

CatFromHue

Ospreys

Yeah it's written in the qualification rules that the top 3 Irish teams in the Rabo go into HEC.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Munster

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Out of interest if Connacht did finish ahead of Munster (obviously unlikely) is it written in stone that they would definitely get the HCup spot, or is still at the IRFUs discretion?

Arguably (whilst I'd consider it wrong) it could be considered better from both a financial pov and the international team pov (in theory the IRFUs ultimate mandate) for Munster to have the HCup spot instead of Connacht.

no longer the IRFU's discretion they agreed a number of years ago that the Celtic league would be the qualifying tournament and the top three teams in it would qualify for the HEC

andrewdcs

Munster

It would take a miracle for Munster to overhaul Ospreys or Scarlets. I can't see Ospreys overhaul Scarlets tbh, Scarlets'll be 4th.

For the top 3 with the way the games go any combination of Ulster, Leinster Glasgow at 1, 2, 3 a possibility. that order is likeliest.

I also can't see Connacht overtaking Munster, would require outrageous results, possible during 6 nations window, not when they all get everyone back in the huddle.

So Ulster Scarlets, Leinster Glasgow for first round of playoffs...

thomond2006

Ospreys

Zebre 5-11 Scarlets - HT

WinnyThePoo

thomond2006 wrote: »

Zebre 5-11 Scarlets - HT

Come On ZEBRE!

Skid X

Zebre 10 Scarlets 24 after 59 mins.

Two tries for the Scarlets so far.

CatFromHue

Ospreys

I am also cheering on Zebre tonight!

I have them at +10.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Ospreys with three tries in the first twenty minutes, nailed on BP win then.

durkadurka

Munster

Predictable results to be fair , but lessening Munsters chances even further.

CatFromHue

Ospreys

CatFromHue wrote: »

I am also cheering on Zebre tonight!

I have them at +10.

Bugger, it finished up 10 - 24.

Hagz

Dan Lydiate looks like he's enjoyed his break.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Ospreys 31-11 up, BP in the bag.

totallegend

Ospreys

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ospreys 31-11 up, BP in the bag.

Very bad outcome for Munster, especially with scarlets winning too. Going to need to win all remaining games I'd say.

thomond2006

Ospreys

totallegend wrote: »

Very bad outcome for Munster, especially with scarlets winning too. Going to need to win all remaining games I'd say.

Anything less than a Munster BP win tomorrow and we're toast.

Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

Above are Scarlets' remaining games, they'll get at least 13 points out of 25 IMO.

thomond2006

Ospreys

So going into tomorrow, with Leinster hosting Glasgow and Munster hosting Connacht:

Ulster 62
Glasgow 61
Leinster 59
Ospreys 54

---

Scarlets 54
Munster 43

Tox56

Leinster go top with any win... I'll take that

thomond2006

Ospreys

Tox56 wrote: »

Leinster go top with any win... I'll take that

It also means both home semis are now up for grabs. Even Scarlets and Ospreys could sneak in.

Podge_irl

Given their run-in I think Munster are as good as out of contention. With trips to Leinster and Connacht coming up, Ulster may yet find themselves away in the semis. If they win the HEC QF I'd almost guarantee it. Leinster - Glasgow tomorrow will go a long way to deciding the final make up of the table.

Podge_irl

thomond2006 wrote: »

It also means both home semis are now up for grabs. Even Scarlets and Ospreys could sneak in.

I dunno about that. I think the home semis will still be between Ulster, Glasgow and Leinster. Too much of a gap to make up and would require several screw ups by those ahead of them.

durkadurka

Munster

Leinster now favourites to win the regular season.

Will probably need a result in thomond though.

thomond2006

Ospreys

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taMw-48usTA

tolosenc

Munster

Wow, Ulster have lead the league all year, but now a loss in Dublin will likely mean losing a home semi. They need Tommy Bowe back ASAP.

Munter failing to pick up 5 points tonight will see them end their challenge, with a draw being enough to secure a Heineken Cup berth.

Leinster are really set up for it now.

Can someone like release the flu virus at Ospreys training, or something?

Tox56

tolosenc wrote: »

Wow, Ulster have lead the league all year, but now a loss in Dublin will likely mean losing a home semi. They need Tommy Bowe back ASAP.

Munter failing to pick up 5 points tonight will see them end their challenge, with a draw being enough to secure a Heineken Cup berth.

Leinster are really set up for it now.

Can someone like release the flu virus at Ospreys training, or something?

No, bring them to the RDS for the final and make them suffer. Perfect sendoff for Nacewa, BOD and Sexton

irishbucsfan

Munster

Tox56 wrote: »

Perfect sendoff for Nacewa, BOD and Sexton

Ah now

ssaye

tolosenc wrote: »

Wow, Ulster have lead the league all year, but now a loss in Dublin will likely mean losing a home semi. They need Tommy Bowe back ASAP.

Munter failing to pick up 5 points tonight will see them end their challenge, with a draw being enough to secure a Heineken Cup berth.

Leinster are really set up for it now.

Can someone like release the flu virus at Ospreys training, or something?

As I said before great starting 15 but poor extended squad, its really showing injuries or otherwise

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Ah now

Hope not but a winning Lions tour and he's gone I reckon. Wonder when he will make the decision, Leinster said they would give him time but surely their patience has a limit

irishbucsfan

Munster

Tox56 wrote: »

Hope not but a winning Lions tour and he's gone I reckon. Wonder when he will make the decision, Leinster said they would give him time but surely their patience has a limit

What about a last shot at the all blacks in november?

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

What about a last shot at the all blacks in november?

True enough but lets face it, chances are Ireland will lose that game. But then will he play on the whole season just because he wants 1 shot at the all blacks? Will that be his last game for Ireland? Decisions decisions

CIARAN_BOYLE

Munster

Tox56 wrote: »

Hope not but a winning Lions tour and he's gone I reckon. Wonder when he will make the decision, Leinster said they would give him time but surely their patience has a limit

He has said that he would decide after the Lions and Leinster have said they aren't brining in a replacement 13 so if he goes its trust Macken/EOM while if he stays its same old same old.

irishbucsfan

Munster

Tox56 wrote: »

True enough but lets face it, chances are Ireland will lose that game. But then will he play on the whole season just because he wants 1 shot at the all blacks? Will that be his last game for Ireland? Decisions decisions

I don't buy for a single sexond that the IRFU are incapable of giving him a contract that would allow him to retire after that game and keep playing with Leinster.

I just get this feeling that the "future testimonial event" in Dublin on the BOD testimonial website will be a match. And if it is I hope it's against the Kiwis.

thomond2006

Ospreys

TABLE AFTER ROUND 18
Leinster 63
Glasgow 62
Ulster 62
Ospreys 54

---

Scarlets 54
Munster 47
Treviso 39
Cardiff 33
Connacht 32
Edinburgh 28
Dragons 23
Zebre 8

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

---

REMAINING FIXTURES

ULSTER:
Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Cardiff (H)

GLASGOW:
Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)

LEINSTER:
Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)

OSPREYS:
Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

SCARLETS:
Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

MUNSTER:
Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

So next weekend's fixtures (relevant to playoff race):

Leinster vs Ulster
Dragons vs Scarlets
Glasgow vs Munster
Cardiff vs Ospreys

I predict wins for Leinster, Scarlets, Glasgow and Ospreys. Try bonus points in any of those wins are unlikely.

durkadurka

Munster

Scarlets should probably get three wins which would eliminate Munster.

Munster MUST beat Glasgow.

jamiedav2011

We could realistically be looking at knocking 'Spreys out in last game of season, and perhaps putting us top too.

Win next weekend would be big, as would win in Thomond.

Next three games are season defining.

tolosenc

Munster

Scarlets with the easier run in should nick the 4th spot. Munster's race is run.

Not an easy run in for Leinster (except for 5 points from Zebre), but confident we can get it done and top the league yet again.

totallegend

Ospreys

thomond2006 wrote: »

TABLE AFTER ROUND 18
Leinster 63
Glasgow 62
Ulster 62
Ospreys 54

---

Scarlets 54
Munster 47
Treviso 39
Cardiff 33
Connacht 32
Edinburgh 28
Dragons 23
Zebre 8

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

---

REMAINING FIXTURES

ULSTER:
Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Cardiff (H)

GLASGOW:
Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)

LEINSTER:
Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)

OSPREYS:
Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

SCARLETS:
Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

MUNSTER:
Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

I would expect each of those teams to win 3 of the last 4 games, except Ospreys who could lose their last two.

Unfortunately for Munster, Scarlets have the easiest run-in of all and could conceivably win all four remaining matches. Munster are gone.