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Shortage of houses...
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Touché sir.
The market is not being allowed to stabilise naturally. There is huge (and costly) state intervention to prevent it happening.
And there is banging on about debt forgiveness every day of the week. Debt forgiveness is not free. Every cent of debt forgiveness will come from the tax payer.
I have no faith in there being any sort of equitable solution to any of this. The Croke Park Agreement enshrines that the unsustainable wages and benefits of existing public servants were prioritised as the terms and benefits of new starters were savaged. Our idea of a 'bank debt deal' is for our betters to accept a mountain of debt that the young will bear the brunt of paying.
:rolleyes:
You are hereby informed that as a compliant mortgage payer you were included in the 'Our' taxes bit.
banging on about debt forgiveness and getting debt forgiveness are two different things. There hasnt been blanket debt forgiveness so your jumping the gun completely. Just becasue you have no faith in an equitable solution doesnt mean there wont be.
People get far too emotive on the subject of arrears and all you hear is we the taxpayer are subsidising X,Y & Z
Ive yet to see a CBA on the benefit of repossessing all these homes. Given that it would fall on the state taxpayers when it comes to housing a large propertion of these people via the social welfare system, in addition to the debt write off banks would be forced to do as you cannot get blood from a stone.
Cystalising these losses then adds to issues on the banks balance sheets that the government would be forced to plug, which adds further to the deficit this country is running, which adds to the cost of borrowing on the bond markets, which adds to the cost to the taxpayer as we try to get our house in order.
its a vicious circle. You cant take a slash and burn approach to the housing market and think it will fix it. Its unfortunate but the fact is you cannot.
First step repo BTL's in arrears and then see how the new insolvency bill pans out. Reassess and take the next step.0 -
banging on about debt forgiveness and getting debt forgiveness are two different things. There hasnt been blanket debt forgiveness so your jumping the gun completely.
But there is debt forgiveness going on behind closed doors without any public oversight or scrutiny. Significant levels in some cases.Just because you have no faith in an equitable solution doesnt mean there wont be.
Just because you are taking the leap of faith that there will be an equitable solution doesn't meaning I'm going to tell you stop 'banging on' and telling people that their opinions are crap.Ive yet to see a CBA on the benefit of repossessing all these homes. Given that it would fall on the state taxpayers when it comes to housing a large proportion of these people via the social welfare system, in addition to the debt write off banks would be forced to do as you cannot get blood from a stone.
Cystalising these losses then adds to issues on the banks balance sheets that the government would be forced to plug, which adds further to the deficit this country is running, which adds to the cost of borrowing on the bond markets, which adds to the cost to the taxpayer as we try to get our house in order.
I'm no economist but that doesn't sound viable to me. You don't want to repossess houses because that 'crystallizes' loses which adds issues to the banks balance sheets. Right. But it allows the banks to liquidate the assets and get pay down debt which they are currently servicing at high interest. You'd prefer that they engage in large amounts of debt forgiveness which would crystallize losses onto their balance sheets with no asset liquidation. Just less debt owed to the bank.its a vicious circle. You cant take a slash and burn approach to the housing market and think it will fix it. Its unfortunate but the fact is you cannot.
I'm not advocating a 'slash and burn' approach. I'm advocating basic capitalist principles! People took this debt on of their own free will. It's tragic for them. But if they cannot pay back that debt then they *should* lose the asset.
If the house had appreciated by 25% they would not be volunteering any of that profit back. Flipside should apply.
And maybe, just maybe, this country's demented take on property and debt might actually change.
I am not for one second arguing that people be left homeless or that the social machinery of the state be deprived. But many people did not get sucked into the mania of the boom. They did so because they understood the moral hazard at play and understood the sums involved were insane.
We are constantly fed an argument that we need to sustain the unsustainable status quo 'for the economy'. We need to continue to run a massive deficit that we can barely service in order to keep pumping out unsustainable levels of public spending so as to keep the economy going with piles of more debt.
I know the whole argument about counter cyclical expenditure etc. But we are well past this. Our fate rests with a broader European recovery. What the state needs to do on a national is to pull it's bloody oar out of the property market (no more interference, no more incentives, nothing) and let the thing come to a sustainable level, balance the books, let the banks do what makes sense economically (whilst regulating the **** out of them to make sure there are no more screw ups).0 -
But there is debt forgiveness going on behind closed doors without any public oversight or scrutiny. Significant levels in some cases.
There is some happening behind closed doors but significant levels is completely overstating the point. If you were to look at the individual cases which unfortuantly were not really privvy to you can be assured that the bank are doing the best possible deal for themselves.
Just because you are taking the leap of faith that there will be an equitable solution doesn't meaning I'm going to tell you stop 'banging on' and telling people that their opinions are crap.
You used the term banging on first i just answered using your own terminology.
I'm no economist but that doesn't sound viable to me. You don't want to repossess houses because that 'crystallizes' loses which adds issues to the banks balance sheets. Right. But it allows the banks to liquidate the assets and get pay down debt which they are currently servicing at high interest. You'd prefer that they engage in large amounts of debt forgiveness which would crystallize losses onto their balance sheets with no asset liquidation. Just less debt owed to the bank.
I never said I didnt want to see houses repossessed. What I said is that Ive yet to see a CBA indicating the slow staged wait and see approach the banks are taking is a negative for them, nor have I seen a CBA that shows that its a much better approach by the government in terms of managing the situation.
I'm not advocating a 'slash and burn' approach. I'm advocating basic capitalist principles! People took this debt on of their own free will. It's tragic for them. But if they cannot pay back that debt then they *should* lose the asset.
I fully agree. Hense my comment lets wait and see the results of the new insolvency bill legislation before getting the torches and pitchforks out.
If the house had appreciated by 25% they would not be volunteering any of that profit back. Flipside should apply.
I agree but remember said banks are in national ownership now, so the right decisions here make the banks more valuable for eventually selling. Thats something people keep forgetting even if it means short term losses.
We are constantly fed an argument that we need to sustain the unsustainable status quo 'for the economy'. We need to continue to run a massive deficit that we can barely service in order to keep pumping out unsustainable levels of public spending so as to keep the economy going with piles of more debt.
I know the whole argument about counter cyclical expenditure etc. But we are well past this. Our fate rests with a broader European recovery. What the state needs to do on a national is to pull it's bloody oar out of the property market (no more interference, no more incentives, nothing) and let the thing come to a sustainable level, balance the books, let the banks do what makes sense economically (whilst regulating the **** out of them to make sure there are no more screw ups).
The state run NAMA , NAMA's objective is to try and at least break even on the assests / loans they have taken on, to do this the state have to have an oar in the market like it or not. Is this right or wrong only time will tell , one things for sure the Irish situation will be a topic in many many Economy text books in the future.
comments above0 -
If there are a lack of houses in the cities, building more outside the cities won't cure the problem.Ray Palmer wrote: »There is a shortage of houses avalible to buy in the cities.0 -
I agree but remember said banks are in national ownership now, so the right decisions here make the banks more valuable for eventually selling. Thats something people keep forgetting even if it means short term losses.
The state run NAMA , NAMA's objective is to try and at least break even on the assests / loans they have taken on, to do this the state have to have an oar in the market like it or not. Is this right or wrong only time will tell , one things for sure the Irish situation will be a topic in many many Economy text books in the future.
Its wrong what they(banks, govt) are doing and have been doing for years. They have\are trying to hold prices up as long as possible to the detriment of FTB's, that is the individual citizen. Renters like quad_red end up in a strangled rental market are justifiably frustrated at the state intervention.
The kicking the can down the road approach of dealing with the non-developer debts has strangled the market for years, I myself said that years ago yet they are only starting to tackle it in 2013.
That along with the non-repo of houses, NAMA withholding property, the inaction at the massive insolvency and mortgage arrears issue are attempts are trying to stop prices falling any further.0 -
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Prices going down will not create more houses.Its wrong what they(banks, govt) are doing and have been doing for years. They have\are trying to hold prices up as long as possible to the detriment of FTB's, that is the individual citizen. Renters like quad_red end up in a strangled rental market are justifiably frustrated at the state intervention.
The kicking the can down the road approach of dealing with the non-developer debts has strangled the market for years, I myself said that years ago yet they are only starting to tackle it in 2013.
That along with the non-repo of houses, NAMA withholding property, the inaction at the massive insolvency and mortgage arrears issue are attempts are trying to stop prices falling any further.
Repossessions will not create more houses.0 -
How can you say there is inaction on insolvency. The new insolvency bill has been enacted. We have discussed NAMA ad nauseum on here. It's not going to dump property in a depressed Market. It's raison d'être is to turn a profit for us, the taxpayer. Not to find a floor.
Its wrong what they(banks, govt) are doing and have been doing for years. They have\are trying to hold prices up as long as possible to the detriment of FTB's, that is the individual citizen. Renters like quad_red end up in a strangled rental market are justifiably frustrated at the state intervention.
The kicking the can down the road approach of dealing with the non-developer debts has strangled the market for years, I myself said that years ago yet they are only starting to tackle it in 2013.
That along with the non-repo of houses, NAMA withholding property, the inaction at the massive insolvency and mortgage arrears issue are attempts are trying to stop prices falling any further.0 -
StillWaters wrote: »How can you say there is inaction on insolvency. The new insolvency bill has been enacted. We have discussed NAMA ad nauseum on here. It's not going to dump property in a depressed Market. It's raison d'être is to turn a profit for us, the taxpayer. Not to find a floor.
took the words right out of my mouth0 -
In certain areas there are no doubt a shortage of certain types of accomodation.
This fact coupled with the issue you have mentioned above are why people are tending not to want to move anywhere.
I had a very honest chat with an EA recently who advised that the "bottom" is nowhere near yet and will not be met until:
1. The banks close in on the non-performing BTL accomodation and put them on the market.
2. The insolvency bill is enacted.
He also said that there is a shortage of certain types of house and an inability of those without houses to even get a mortgage at this point.
I'd say the bottom has been met in some areas in the country. You could buy a decent house in a housing estate in the midlands for between 75-100k. The size of the site alone could be worth 15k. The site is serviced with water/sewage/electricity/roads/proximity to employment and public transport. I livewithin walking distance from town in the midlands near to the train station and there is always demand for rented property. I think there will be a adjustment in some parts of the country when repossessions start but they will quickly sold as there is demand for these types of properties.0 -
CreepingDeath wrote: »Another MAJOR reason why people aren't selling houses to trade up/down is they'll lose their tracker mortgages.
I've been looking into this recently.
I've a house in West Dublin on a tracker mortgage and am considering moving to Drogheda.
If I borrow the exact same amount to sell up and buy another similar house, then my mortgage interest rate goes from 1.9% to 4.7% immediately.
That works out at an extra €250 per month for 15 years.
At least €55k extra in interest fees.
So even people in positive equity are trapped by tracker rates especially with AIB raising them more, and the possibility of them rising to 6 - 7% in the mid-term future.
You would still get a better and bigger house but you are right how would give up the tracker mortgage unless it was worth your money. I am on a tracker mortgage but I'd give it up to move nearer to work a need only one car and have 400 p/m extra in my pocket to pay the higher rate of intrest.0 -
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StillWaters wrote: »How can you say there is inaction on insolvency. The new insolvency bill has been enacted. We have discussed NAMA ad nauseum on here. It's not going to dump property in a depressed Market. It's raison d'être is to turn a profit for us, the taxpayer. Not to find a floor.
The purpose of NAMA was to ensure that credit, the "lifeblood" of the economy, would flow forth when the banks were relieved of bad developer debt.
This it has spectacularly failed to achieve.
It always strikes me as pure Irish humour the possibility that any monies clawed back by NAMA could constitute a 'profit'.
I think the conceit behind NAMA, that Government blank cheques could forstall a property and banking collapse, has been shown to be utter hogwash. The banks continued to Hoover up tens of billions of euro after the NAMA process and credit availability is still massively constrained.
For NAMA to 'make' money, however loosely you define that, it doesn't just require a return to market activity. It needs a serious increase in prices.
The NAMA process has failed. I'm not talking about a fire sale. But the entire opaque and unaccountable machinery and old boys gravy train it feeds (as brilliantly covered my namawinelake) needs to stop.
NAMA's meddling needs to stop.0 -
Prices going down will not create more houses.
Repossessions will not create more houses.
They normally would. The market has not been flooded with repo's yet as the banks have not taken any action towards those in arrears both PPR and BTL's. Their preferred action as the behest of the govt is to keep people in houses with vastly reduced mortgages\or letting the occupiers rent the house from the bank. All to keep excess property off the market helping "stabilise" prices.StillWaters wrote: »How can you say there is inaction on insolvency. The new insolvency bill has been enacted. We have discussed NAMA ad nauseum on here. It's not going to dump property in a depressed Market. It's raison d'être is to turn a profit for us, the taxpayer. Not to find a floor.
How many years has it taken to get the Insolvency Bill enacted since the crash? Yes, its taken now 6 years since 2007, thats inaction. Expected finally this summer.
NAMA's action is to the detriment of buyers in order to hold prices and try to raise them. Buyers ain't foolish and thankfully have not jumped at the bait of a "recovery in the property market propaganda" spouted by vested interests.0 -
Conspiracy forum, this way >>
They normally would. The market has not been flooded with repo's yet as the banks have not taken any action towards those in arrears both PPR and BTL's. Their preferred action as the behest of the govt is to keep people in houses with vastly reduced mortgages\or letting the occupiers rent the house from the bank. All to keep excess property off the market helping "stabilise" prices.
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Banks operate in their own interests, not at the behest of Governmen. Why do you think Bank of Scotland has not moved on arrears? They have much of the BTL Market.0 -
StillWaters wrote: »Conspiracy forum, this way >>
Banks operate in their own interests, not at the behest of Governmen. Why do you think Bank of Scotland has not moved on arrears? They have much of the BTL Market.
Label it conspiracy when it suits.
BOSI\Halifax closed it Irish operations over 2 years ago, they are trying to offload their loan book. http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/fresh-hope-of-deal-for-those-struggling-on-100pc-mortgages-28904395.html . KBC who are foreign owned already did, they've been very active in the courts pursuing unpaid debts.
The other banks, AIB\BOI\PTSB are nearly wholly owned by the govt, thats your vested interest into not flooding the market with repo's.0 -
No, BoS/Certus are not acting on arrears either in any major way. Prior to offloading to Certus, a clearing of the loan book occurred, but nothing much since.
Label it conspiracy when it suits.
BOSI\Halifax closed it Irish operations over 2 years ago, they are trying to offload their loan book. http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/fresh-hope-of-deal-for-those-struggling-on-100pc-mortgages-28904395.html . KBC who are foreign owned already did, they've been very active in the courts pursuing unpaid debts.
The other banks, AIB\BOI\PTSB are nearly wholly owned by the govt, thats your vested interest into not flooding the market with repo's.
Because in most cases, it makes no sense for the Bank to act. As long as interest in being paid, why on earth would they reposess?0 -
StillWaters wrote: »No, BoS/Certus are not acting on arrears either in any major way. Prior to offloading to Certus, a clearing of the loan book occurred, but nothing much since.
Because in most cases, it makes no sense for the Bank to act. As long as interest in being paid, why on earth would they reposess?
They won't act as they have a fear of a mass firesale in the market further depressing prices. While they don't act, those insolvent loans have gotten worse hence the recent push by Elderflield for the banks to sort the arrears situation out, starting with BTL's.
Why all this is relevant is the staggering numbers that are involved. http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/08/23/more-than-22-of-irish-mortgages-are-in-arrears-or-have-been-restructured/More than 22% of Irish mortgages are in arrears or have been restructured.
This morning, the Financial Regulator and deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Matthew Elderfield has released data for the April – June 2012 quarter on Irish mortgage arrears, restructures and repossessions. Overall there are now 83,251 accounts in arrears for more than 90 days, up 5,621 or 7% from the previous quarter and 27,488 or 49% from a year ago.
Normally, those in severe arrears would have been repossessed like in the UK of the 90's. This has not happened for the politically sensitive reason of mass evictions so far in an Irish context and further depressing housing prices.
83,000 in severe arrears is bloody huge for the already "broken" banks. They and NAMA have been kicking the can down the road in the hope of a rising market which has not happened so their hand has been forced to deal with the issue. The Central Bank at the behest of Europe\IMF are pushing the issue to the dealt with. Pity it took 6 years later for the banks to deal with it, they have only dealt with big developer loans so far.0 -
It's posturing. Deals have been done on a case by case basis for years. There is nothing new here.
83,000 in severe arrears is bloody huge for the already "broken" banks. They and NAMA have been kicking the can down the road in the hope of a rising market which has not happened so their hand has been forced to deal with the issue. The Central Bank at the behest of Europe\IMF are pushing the issue to the dealt with. Pity it took 6 years later for the banks to deal with it, they have only dealt with big developer loans so far.0 -
Ray Palmer wrote: »The best solution is to give a tax incentive for older people to sell their houses. Ideally for a pension plan. Older houses are in better serviced areas for schools, shops etc...
It would reduce the need for children to be driven to school. Older people could have property designed for their needs due to failing health.
Every house near me has been selling very quickly. They are family homes in Dublin
There already is an incentive in that there is no tax on PPR's.
There is a shortage of family homes in desireable areas such as south dublin, there are a number of factors, none easily solveable, these are principally demographic in nature - people living longer, older generations tending to have more of the wealth, the fact that our population is about 1m higher than 30 yrs ago (30%) etc.0 -
Lets see what happens when, insolvency bill, comes in, and law is passed to make it easier to foreclose on btl clients in arrears.
Theres people who look for a house, 3 bed, with a garden ,they won,t look at an 800 ft apartment in the same area.
Even though the living space is the same in both dwellings.
IN many areas,there s no sites left ,for new house construction.0 -
There is nowhere for downsizers to move to, a couple in their 60s or more whose house is too large for their needs will want to downsize in the same area, they have no interest in an apartment in Leitrim away from children, grandchildren and friends. There was very little decent town housing or well built apartments built for this demographic in the areas they want to live. So they remain, and a blockage is created. This is going to be a tough one to solve.
There already is an incentive in that there is no tax on PPR's.
There is a shortage of family homes in desireable areas such as south dublin, there are a number of factors, none easily solveable, these are principally demographic in nature - people living longer, older generations tending to have more of the wealth, the fact that our population is about 1m higher than 30 yrs ago (30%) etc.
Talking about arrears and delinquent mortgages is not relevant, as the vast majority of housing in Ireland, and particularly of the type we are discussing are mortgage free. I am a case in point. I would love to downsize, but there is nothing to downsize to!0 -
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StillWaters wrote: »There is nowhere for downsizers to move to, a couple in their 60s or more whose house is too large for their needs will want to downsize in the same area, they have no interest in an apartment in Leitrim away from children, grandchildren and friends. There was very little decent town housing or well built apartments built for this demographic in the areas they want to live. So they remain, and a blockage is created. This is going to be a tough one to solve.
Talking about arrears and delinquent mortgages is not relevant, as the vast majority of housing in Ireland, and particularly of the type we are discussing are mortgage free. I am a case in point. I would love to downsize, but there is nothing to downsize to!
I agree with all that, the consequences are that we're left with more central city areas with half empty schools and suburban areas with no available school places, and the peak of the massive birth wave has yet to hit primary school.
It really is extremely difficult to know what the solution is, there's no where to downsize to.0 -
StillWaters wrote: »Talking about arrears and delinquent mortgages is not relevant, as the vast majority of housing in Ireland, and particularly of the type we are discussing are mortgage free. I am a case in point. I would love to downsize, but there is nothing to downsize to!
This isn't necessarily the case though, I rent in a pretty good area, a decent 4 bed family house, I know the owner has a string of similar properties and I also know the landlord is struggling badly. I'm happy enough that the banks are holding off for the time being, but if they didn't, there would be 3 decent sized semi's in desireable areas of Dublin on the market (not to mention several apartments).
I really do think the enactment of the insolvency legislation will ease supply somewhat as I have heard (from reliable sources) of a number of BTL investors people waiting to test it out.0 -
I suppose ultimately old people die and the problem resolves itself, just takes longer than if they downsized "voluntarily".StillWaters wrote: »This is going to be a tough one to solve.
I don't think downsizing has ever been the done thing in Ireland though. There's no culture or history of it that I am aware of, not that it is a bad thing, quite the contrary it allows a more efficient use of housing stock.0 -
For example, could some estates in places like Longford be made into retirement villages for downsizers relocating from family homes in Dublin.
http://www.ruralresettlement.com/move_faq.html
Rural Resettlement Ireland is a voluntary body. There are no government grants or incentives attached to it, their main function is to be a match maker between rural landlords and urban tenants who want to move.
If someone was looking to buy they could give advice on that too.
They'll give advice and guidance but there is no money available.
Pat Kenny show did a few interviews about it.
Mainly used by young Dublin families who feel they are in a bad situation and likely they see their school going child going down a bad path.
Co. Clare seems to be the most popular spot.
Offtopic post, just there is someone to talk to if anyone ever wanted to leave an urban area and start afresh.
Come Whest :cool:0 -
But our demographics have shifted hugely, we have a rapidly ageing population, and these people are keeping active for longer. Our planning process over the last 10 years totally ignored this, and instead planned for the old model, that older people would stay in their large suburban houses with big gardens, only moving on to a nursing home.
I don't think downsizing has ever been the done thing in Ireland though. There's no culture or history of it that I am aware of, not that it is a bad thing, quite the contrary it allows a more efficient use of housing stock.
Certainly the property tax might encourage these people to vacate, but the question remains, where to?0 -
Another little anecdote for this thread. We are renting for the last 6 months, having sold our house, trying to buy another. Moving due to job. Our finances are in order, we are ready, willing and able to buy. But the area we are looking at has sod all. We want a 3 or 4 bed house with a garden. Not an apartment, not a duplex, not a terrace. There are thousands of the houses we would like physically sitting there, but nothing for sale. We have bid and lost on 2 properties in those six months, and are bidding on a third at the moment. All have sold within 4 weeks of going on the market, and all for above the asking price. Once this one sells... (Probably not to us if it goes above our budget), we wait another month or so, basically until someone passes away and their house goes on the market. Then we bid against the ten or twenty other potential buyers haunting this area.
I am sure there are loads of unsellable apartments in the middle of nowhere, but there is a definite shortage of trader-ups / trader-downs from where I am sitting.0 -
IF someone is in a house loan, 200k, house now worth 100k,
is there any financial benefit,to a bank foreclosing on it,
IF the client is paying interest only?
it,ll cost the bank a few grand to sell it, go to court.
I don,t think we,ll sell a large amount of evictions in the next 2 years.
IT would be more accurate to say in Certain areas there,s a shortage of houses for sale.
pwurble look at other areas,in a 3 mile radius.0 -
what a crock of crap :rolleyes: your taxes are not subsidising anything. Nobody will get a free ride the wheels of democracy may run slowly but those that cant / wont pay will get their come uppance eventually.
I also love how renters think their taxes are more important than others. Im a fully compliant mortgage payer my taxes are just as important as yours so why do you feel mentioning that you are a renter has any weight when making statements about reposessions ?
Because he has no rights compared to a "home owner" (what a lie that is!). I have done both and the only reason I bought a house was because I had more rights than when renting. If you look at the land league's demands for the 3 F's in the 1850s, modern day renters have none of these:
Fair rent — meaning rent control: for the first time in the United Kingdom, fair rent would be decided by land courts, and not by the landlords;
Free sale — meaning a tenant could sell the interest in his holding to an incoming tenant without landlord interference;
Fixity of tenure — meaning that a tenant could not be evicted if he had paid the rent.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Fs
If renters were given these rights today, it would transform the property market here to a more stable and less boom-bust one similar to what exists elsewhere in Northern Europe.0 -
StillWaters wrote: »But our demographics have shifted hugely, we have a rapidly ageing population, and these people are keeping active for longer. Our planning process over the last 10 years totally ignored this, and instead planned for the old model, that older people would stay in their large suburban houses with big gardens, only moving on to a nursing home.
Certainly the property tax might encourage these people to vacate, but the question remains, where to?
There are tons of NAMA owned apartments that would be ideal. Elderly people are generally resistant to change, but if there were good incentives for them to sell up and somewhere nearby with proper facilities for them to go, their minds might be changed. Most seniors don't want to go into nursing homes therefore try to stay in their houses as long as possible.
Give them some financial incentive to move - maybe a tax payable by the new purchaser that goes to maintaining an assisted living style setup. Make apartment blocks exclusively for seniors. There are plenty of solutions to this if people used their imagination.0 -
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