March 2013 Boards forecast contest

rameire

done

waterways

done

M.T. Cranium

March forecast contest entries
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Forecaster ................ IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max-17th
____________________________________________________________


lostinashford ............ 8.9 .... 16.7 .... -3.2 .... 082 .... 112 .... 14.7
H2UMrsRobinson....... 7.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 079 .... 13.3
MiNdGaM3 ............... 7.5 .... 16.9 .... -4.8 .... 100 .... 099 .... 14.0
jpmarn .................... 7.4 .... 18.5 .... -1.5 .... 074 .... 121 .... 13.1
nabber .................... 7.3 .... 20.1 .... -6.6 .... 088 .... 107 .... 16.5
nilhg ....................... 7.2 .... 15.5 .... -3.1 .... 080 .... 090 .... 12.2
Gonzo ..................... 7.1 .... 19.2 .... -4.2 .... 083 .... 068 .... 14.5
John mac ................. 7.1 .... 16.3 .... -3.1 .... 103 .... 122 .... 15.2
bejubby ................... 7.0 .... 12.0 .... -4.0 .... 085 .... 090 .... 10.0
dacogawa ................ 7.0 .... 14.9 .... -3.9 .... 130 .... 082 .... 10.5
Bsal ........................ 7.0 .... 14.4 .... -5.2 .... 101 .... 098 .... 13.0
rickylovesuall ........... 7.0 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 090 .... 120 .... 14.0
jd ........................... 7.0 .... 18.2 .... -3.0 .... 105 .... 105 .... 16.2
cherryghost ............. 7.0 .... 18.1 .... -3.5 .... 090 .... 105 .... 15.0
traecy 1 .................. 7.0 .... 17.6 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 090 .... 12.8
waterways (-5) ........ 7.0 .... 19.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 090 .... 11.0
omicron .................. 6.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 15.0
Strasser .................. 6.9 .... 18.0 .... -4.0 .... 095 .... 105 .... 11.1
Seafields ................. 6.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 120 .... 16.8

Con Sensus ............. 6.8 .... 17.5 .... -3.5 .... 093 .... 105 .... 13.9

kindredspirit ............ 6.8 .... 16.0 .... -5.8 .... 080 .... 115 ...... 8.0
talkabout ................ 6.8 .... 16.7 .... -3.1 .... 090 .... 105 .... 13.9
homolumo ............... 6.7 .... 15.1 .... -3.6 .... 103 .... 109 .... 12.3
200motels ............... 6.7 .... 17.9 .... -3.9 .... 075 .... 109 .... 12.9
DOCARCH ................ 6.7 .... 18.2 .... -4.2 .... 085 .... 095 .... 16.1
rebelbrowser ............ 6.6 .... 16.8 .... -3.8 .... 065 .... 131 .... 14.0
Tae laidir ................. 6.6 .... 18.3 .... -5.1 .... 056 .... 132 .... 10.9
okla ........................ 6.5 .... 15.9 .... -3.6 .... 092 .... 104 .... 12.5
Pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 17.1 .... -3.8 .... 103 .... 109 .... 11.0
snowstreams ............ 6.5 .... 19.8 .... -3.8 .... 096 .... 110 .... 16.5
M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 17.7 .... -5.0 .... 120 .... 120 .... 15.0
harps ....................... 6.3 .... 16.9 .... -3.5 .... 085 .... 090 .... 11.1
rameire .................... 6.3 .... 19.7 .... -4.5 .... 095 .... 105 .... 12.5
mickger844posts ....... 6.2 .... 17.8 .... -1.9 .... 078 .... 110 .... 14.2
Jerry Seinfeld (-10) ... 6.2 .... 18.0 .... -5.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 10.0
Joe Public ................. 5.9 .... 19.9 .... -5.9 .... 079 .... 129 ...... 9.9
delw......................... 5.1 .... 14.0 .... -1.0 .... 090 .... 087 .... 11.0
dasa29 .................... 5.0 .... 14.0 .... -5.0 .... 090 .... 120 .... 14.0


______________________________

Entries still welcome, either on the thread or into the form (post 3) ... at this point you're saving me a step by posting on the thread. Thanks.

dasa29

Hi Mt,

you have my entry wrong, i just double checked the speadsheet and on it my entry is
imt 5, Max 14 min -5, Prc 90, Sun 120, max-17th 14,

Speak Now

Doh!!!!! Forgot this

6.2 ..... 18..... -5.5.... 100..... 100..... 10

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, Jerry, and sorry dasa29, normally I am inkapabl of eror but I will check the table against everyone's entry later if I can print it out, looks like I got cross-eyed because half your entry was right and the other half was next to yours.

As I say, it's rair for me to make any sort of misteak specially when it comes to wurds or numbres.

Edit ... checked the form, think everything else is okay.

M.T. Cranium

-4.9 C at Gurteen (2nd) and Athenry (1st-2nd probably a midnight reading).

Will that stand? Time will tell.

M.T. Cranium

Tracking the plunge of the IMT ...

after Sat 9th ... 5.7 C

after Sun 10th ... 5.4 C

after Mon 11th ... 4.9 C

pauldry

Temperatures of close to minus 7 were recorded in Sligo and Roscommon last night.

This is yet to verify though

Certainly looks like 5.something could be the IMT for the end of March with more cold weather on the way for Paddys weekend

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday brought the IMT down further, to 4.5 C. The daily mean was 0.5 C.

We have a new MIN of -7.6 C (Markree) and that is also coldest of the (extended) winter season.

Precip during this cold spell has been very low especially at the eleven sites used, so we're stalled in the range of 65% of normal to this point. Looks like that should increase gradually over the next five days.

Sunshine is about normal so far, thanks to about three bright days here and there.

The MIN has fallen well outside the range of our predictions which means that the points for that are now set. Nabber will nab 18 for his guess of -6.6 ... Joe Public has expropriated 16 and kindredspirit has spirited away 14. Those are the only forecasts that would qualify for any points on regular rules so the rest of the points table will be getting a total gift of 1-13 points (you can look up your rank and figure out that part). I see Jerry saying what's with my 13 points? Bsal (12) and Tae laidir (11) then dasa29,MTC (10 each) next up for the emergency rations. If you said -4 and change, you'll probably score something between 1 and 8.

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I see Jerry saying what's with my 13 points?

13 Minus 10

pauldry

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

13 Minus 10

13 minus 13 for me

pauldry

Max temp so far appears to be 9c sherkin island but could be 8.something

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Max temp so far appears to be 9c sherkin island but could be 8.something

Possibly a happy St Patrick's Day to me.

Nabber

Happy with the -6.6
Was risky. But it paid off

M.T. Cranium

The bonus question, highest MAX in Ireland on the 17th, is confirmed at 9.0 C which makes the scoring easy, same as the (reverse) order of forecasts. Joe Public at 9.9 edged out Kindredspirit at 8.0, but they share top score of ten with bejubby and Jerry Seinfeld who both guessed 10.0 ... KS had the only guess below the actual.

The IMT meanwhile is stuck at 4.2 C after yesterday and shows only faint signs of recovery, the main question now is whether or not the IMT will make it back into our forecast range (low forecast is 5.0) and whether or not the scoring will require a touch of help from the minimum progression rule (which applies to the whole range of scores). Seems rather likely that assistance will be forthcoming. The current charts don't hold much promise of a finish higher than 5.0, even if there were a few warmer days at the end, by then they don't shift the numbers much (4.5 on 28th for example, then three days at 10, leaves the result at 5.1).

With heavy precip in the forecast period, the current estimate of 50% means very little, we'll be better to assess this figure by next weekend.

M.T. Cranium

It's looking increasingly possible that March will come in colder than the three winter months. The IMT has now sunk to 4.1 C after 20 days and there are forecasts of colder days ahead without too much compensation on the up side, so the finishing point might be anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 depending on how severe the cold spell is, and how much last minute warmth can be found.

Precip before today's heavier rainfall was sitting close to 50% of normal or 35% of the monthly normal values, either way, a downpour of 30 mm would adjust the running totals to about 100% of normal and 70% of the eventual monthly averages, which means that if the eleven stations do manage to average 30 mm (probably a high end estimate) then a further 30 mm will be required to make the month end values normal at that point. The charts have some further potential for precip but perhaps not that much, so 80-90 per cent looks the most likely end result now.

Sunshine has been running about normal or a bit below, so a lot will depend on whether the easterly flow is cloudy or largely cloud-free next week.

M.T. Cranium

After 24 days the IMT is at 4.1 C but that's rounded up from 4.06 and I suspect it will settle into the high 3s during the week, maybe even mid 3s. In any case, it appears almost certain that the "minimum progression" rule will be required to give the field any sort of scoring on the IMT now. So, you who went low are locked into 23 and 20 points for first and second, then we go 18, 16, 15 etc all the way down to one point, except if the natural scoring is higher in any case then you get that instead. This rule has saved many in the past, as a group I would have to say this was all rather dimly foreseen although some gave it a nod.

The April contest will be posted soon, thanks to the help of S.B. on the form. I think I may open it later this evening in fact.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now on 3.7 C, continuing to drift down about like the snow, meanwhile would say precip set to finish on 80 per cent give or take, unless unexpectedly heavy precip hits by Sunday. Sunshine seems a bit low also.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for March

Since the "minimum progression" (mercy) rule will apply to all temperature forecasts and the bonus scoring is settled, we can estimate final scoring as follows, based on the values shown.

Forecaster ................ IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max-17th
____________________________________________________________

Actual values ............ 3.5 ... 13.2 ... <-7.0 .... 080 .... 090 .... 9.0

dasa29 .................... 23* ... 18* ... 11* ... 12 .... 04 .... 05 ..... 73
delw......................... 20* ... 18* ... 00 .... 12 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 68
Joe Public ................. 18* ... 00 .... 16* ... 15 .... 02 .... 10 ..... 61
kindredspirit ............ 03* ... 08* ... 14* ... 15 .... 05 .... 10 ...... 55
bejubby ................... 00 .... 14* ... 05* ... 13 .... 10 .... 10 ..... 52
Bsal ........................ 00 .... 14* ... 13* ... 08 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 49
harps ....................... 14* ... 03* ... 01* ... 13 .... 10 .... 08 .... 49
Jerry Seinfeld (-10) ... 16* ... 00 .... 15* ... 09 .... 08 .... 10 ..... 58-10=48
okla ........................ 11* ... 09* ... 02* ... 11 .... 07 .... 07 ..... 47
rameire .................... 14* ... 00 .... 08* ... 10 .... 07 .... 07 ..... 46
nilhg ....................... 00 .... 10* ... 00 .... 15 .... 10 .... 08 ..... 43
mickger844posts ....... 16* ... 00 .... 00 .... 14 ... 06 .... 05 ..... 41
nabber .................... 00 .... 00 .... 18* ... 12 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 40
homolumo ............... 06* ... 11* ... 02* ... 07 .... 06 .... 08 ..... 40
Tae laidir ................. 08* ... 00 .... 12* ... 07 .... 02 .... 09 ..... 38
DOCARCH ................ 06* ... 00 .... 07* ... 13 .... 09 .... 03 ..... 38
Pauldry .................... 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 07 .... 06 .... 09 ..... 36
200motels ............... 06* ... 00 .... 03* ... 13 .... 06 .... 07 ..... 35
MiNdGaM3 ............... 00 .... 03* ... 09* ... 08 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 33
M.T. Cranium ............ 12* ... 00 ... 11* ... 02 .... 04 .... 04 ..... 33
talkabout ................. 03* ... 06* ... 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 33
rebelbrowser ............ 08* ... 04* ... 03*... 10 .... 02 .... 05 ..... 32
snowstreams ............ 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 10 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 32
dacogawa ................ 00 .... 12* ... 03* ... 00 .... 08 .... 09 ..... 32
Strasser .................. 01* ... 00 .... 05* ... 10 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 31
Gonzo ..................... 00 .... 00 .... 07* ... 14 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 31
lostinashford ............ 00 .... 06* ... 00 .... 14 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 30

Con Sensus ............. 03* ... 00 .... 01* ... 11 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 27

cherryghost ............. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 12 .... 07 .... 04 ..... 24
traecy 1 .................. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 05 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 23
waterways (-5) ........ 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 08 .... 10 .... 09 ..... 28-5=23
omicron .................. 01* ... 01* ... 01* ... 08 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 23
John mac ................. 00 .... 07* ... 00 .... 07 .... 04 .... 03 ..... 21
H2UMrsRobinson....... 00 .... 01* ... 01* ... 05 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 21
jpmarn .................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 02 .... 06 ..... 21
rickylovesuall ........... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 04 .... 05 ..... 21
Seafields ................. 01* ... 01* ... 01*... 08 .... 04 .... 02 ..... 17
jd ........................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 17
__________________________________

* scores are determined from "minimum progression" rule

This scoring table will be updated around 2 April from the actual precip and sunshine values.

Let me know if you spot any problems. At least most of us beat Con Sensus for a change.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT was in fact 3.6 C, only Shannon managed to break 4 and the other four averaged 3.4 C.

I have a better estimate for precip now, 74% but we'll wait and see what the MS says about it. That would basically drop almost every score by 2 in that category unless you predicted under 80% (in the provisional scoring above).

I expect the MS to appear tomorrow, as I gather today has been a holiday. The only people who take Easter Monday as a holiday here are the banks, oddly enough, and we don't use the term "bank holiday" so maybe they wanted to make a point.

April forecast is still there for the taking, and updated forecasts can be put into the table or the thread until 0300h. I only take your last entry so it's always okay to edit forecasts up to the deadline.

Duggys Housemate

Any stats on how unusual this march has been? The guys in NetWeather - where the CET was 2.9 - have a list of kinds of records beaten. Colder than all 3 Winter months, colder than Jan & Feb where Jan & Feb were colder than average for the first time since 1882 etc.

M.T. Cranium

I was just reading the Monthly Summary from Met-E and they say Dublin (A) at 3.1 C had the coldest March since station opened in the 1940s, most other locations coldest also since whenever they opened except some in the south coldest since 1955 or 1962. However there don't seem to be a lot of comparable records from the 19th century as there are in Britain, at least not readily available. I've observed that our IMT index usually performs about like the CET index, and on that, March was coldest since 1883 which was almost a degree colder, so that might give you some indication. Also, in both cases, the period 11th to 31st was a half degree colder than the monthly average which is even more noteworthy and takes you back even further (for the CET, into the period 1799 to 1837) to find colder periods.

I think we could summarize by saying that March was about as cold as it can possibly be, within half a degree.

Anyway, I have the final stats now, which are:

IMT ... 3.6 C

MAX ... 14.3 (Athenry, 8th)

MIN ... --7.6 (Markree, 12th)

PRC ... 76% of normal (Cork at 138% somewhat disguises how dry most of the country was, some stations at or below 50%)

SUN ... 84% of normal (the east and south coasts were near 60% and the west, north closer to 105%)

I will revise my provisional scoring which should only take a few minutes because most of the table is final and the order won't change very much if at all, so check back in about half an hour, that should be posted.

M.T. Cranium

Forecaster ................ IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max-17th
____________________________________________________________

Actual values ............ 3.6 .. 14.3 .. -7.6 ... 076 ... 086 ... 9.0 ... TOTALS

dasa29 .................... 23* ... 17 .... 11* ... 10 .... 03 .... 05 .... 69
delw......................... 20* ... 17 .... 00 .... 10 .... 10 .... 09 .... 66
Joe Public ................. 18* ... 00 .... 16* ... 14 .... 01 ... 10 .... 59
kindredspirit ............. 03* ... 10* .. 14* ... 14 .... 04 .... 10 .... 55
Bsal ......................... 00 .... 19 .... 13* ... 07 .... 08 .... 06 .... 53
harps ...................... 14* ... 04* ... 01* ... 11 .... 09 .... 08 .... 47
okla ........................ 11* ... 11* ... 02* ... 10 .... 06 .... 07 .... 47
Jerry Seinfeld (-10) ... 16* ... 00 .... 15* ... 07 .... 07 .... 10 .... 55-10=45
rameire ................... 14* ... 00 .... 08* ... 09 .... 06 .... 07 .... 44
bejubby ................... 00 .... 08* ... 05* ... 12 .... 09 .... 10 .... 44
nilhg ....................... 00 .... 12* ... 00 .... 14 .... 09 .... 08 ..... 41
mickger844posts ...... 16* ... 00 .... 00 .... 14 .... 05 .... 05 ..... 40
homolumo ............... 06* ... 13* .. 02* ... 06 .... 05 .... 08 ..... 40
nabber .................... 00 .... 00 .... 18* ... 11 .... 06 .... 03 ..... 38
Tae laidir ................. 08* ... 00 .... 12* ... 08 .... 01 .... 09 .... 38
DOCARCH ................ 06* ... 00 .... 07* ... 12 .... 08 .... 03 .... 36
200motels ............... 06* ... 00 .... 03* ... 15 .... 05 .... 07 ..... 36
dacogawa ................ 00 .... 14 .... 03* ... 00 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 35
Pauldry ................... 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 06 .... 05 .... 09 ..... 34
rebelbrowser ............ 08* ... 05* .. 03*.... 11 .... 01 .... 05 .... 33
MiNdGaM3 ............... 00 .... 04* ... 09* ... 07 .... 07 .... 05 .... 32
talkabout ................. 03* ... 07* .. 00 .... 10 .... 06 .... 05 ..... 31
M.T. Cranium ........... 12* ... 00 .... 11* ... 01 ... 03 .... 04 ..... 31
Gonzo ..................... 00 .... 00 .... 07* ... 13 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 30
snowstreams ........... 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 08 .... 05 .... 02 ..... 29
Strasser .................. 01* ... 00 .... 05* ... 08 .... 06 .... 08 ..... 28
lostinashford ............ 00 .... 07* .. 00 ..... 13 .... 05 .... 04 ..... 29

Con Sensus ............. 03* ... 00 .... 01* ... 09 .... 06 .... 05 ..... 24

omicron .................. 01* ... 02* .. 01* ... 07 .... 07 .... 04 ..... 22
jpmarn ................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 14 .... 03 .... 06 ..... 23
H2UMrsRobinson....... 00 .... 02* ... 01* .. 04 .... 09 .... 06 ..... 22
John mac ................ 00 .... 09* ... 00 .... 06 .... 03 .... 03 ..... 21
cherryghost ............. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 10 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 21
traecy 1 .................. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 04 .... 09 .... 07 ..... 21
waterways (-5) ........ 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 07 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 26-5=21
rickylovesuall ........... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 .... 03 .... 05 ..... 18
Seafields ................. 01* ... 02* .. 01*... 07 .... 03 .... 02 ..... 16
jd ........................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 .... 06 .... 03 ..... 14
__________________________________

* scores are determined from "minimum progression" rule

Most of the provisional scoring was only out by 1-2 points in the unresolved categories. However, my estimate of 13.2 for the max was off by 1.1 and that changed the situation slightly. The first four scores were "natural" and oddly were more or less minimum progression too. Then bejubby at 12.0 (a bit wider than I had thought) got dropped several spots against various others who moved up one. The precip and sun forecasts were generally dropped by one or two points each as they were lower and most went higher, but a few people actually gained points there. So anyway, the order changed a bit from the provisional list but on top we still find dasa29 and delw. The good news for most is that they edged out Con Sensus for a change, somehow.

I will start looking at annual scoring after the April contest.