RSA Chase

dk6dk6

Seems more and more Jewson bound, Pipe taking the soft option.

UrbanSea

Dynaste 5/2 with racebets for the RSA

SRFC

SRFC wrote: »

How many horses as good as dynaste have ran in the race without a prep in the calender year,my guess would be very few so the stat is probably rubbish same with the 9 yr old in the champion hurdle thread how many 9yr olds with hf's ability ran in it? my guess none so that stat goes out the window,

We can debate what "as good as Dynaste" means till the cows come home but in the last two years both Grand Crus and Time For Rupert didn't run in the same calendar year, both were seen as good things with bullet-proof form, and as we now know both proved the trends nerds correct.

So there's two for you.

Colonel Sanders

I posted this on another thread

Dynaste has pretty much every trend to break but the RSA looks a very weak race this year. If he runs I'm nudging myself towards backing him rather than simply not opposing him

His rating is surely inflated (already rated equal to Bobs Worth and Denman after they won the RSA) but he's been flawless so far over fences

UrbanSea

Paul Nicholls doesn't think all has been right with Dynaste and thinks he'll go for the Jewson

SRFC

Deleted User wrote: »

We can debate what "as good as Dynaste" means till the cows come home but in the last two years both Grand Crus and Time For Rupert didn't run in the same calendar year, both were seen as good things with bullet-proof form, and as we now know both proved the trends nerds correct.

So there's two for you.

The hard races in the world hurdle ruined them two horses imo,big bucks broke them along with punchestowns and voler la vedette imo,


Im backing dynaste nrnb for the jewson he wont be 5/2 if he shows up.

SRFC

SRFC wrote: »

The hard races in the world hurdle ruined them two horses imo,big bucks broke them along with punchestowns and voler la vedette imo,

Im backing dynaste nrnb for the jewson he wont be 5/2 if he shows up.

It broke them to the extent that they returned back the next season and were unbeaten - and looking awesome - until the festival? Not sure I am buying that tbh.

In the run up to both races the fact that both had finished 2nd to Big Bucks was seen as a major positive. In contrast Dynaste was not exactly impressive over 3m at Cheltenham last spring.

SRFC

Deleted User wrote: »

It broke them to the extent that they returned back the next season and were unbeaten - and looking awesome - until the festival? Not sure I am buying that tbh.

In the run up to both races the fact that both had finished 2nd to Big Bucks was seen as a major positive. In contrast Dynaste was not exactly impressive over 3m at Cheltenham last spring.

They all came back a year later for their respective grade ones and got stuffed,one or two maybe but everything that has finished 2nd to him in the world hurdles may aswell have been retired because they've won nothing decent since coming 2nd to the beast as far as I remember.

SRFC

SRFC wrote: »

They all came back a year later for their respective grade ones and got stuffed,one or two maybe but everything that has finished 2nd to him in the world hurdles may aswell have been retired because they've won nothing decent since coming 2nd to the beast as far as I remember.

Grands Crus won the Feltham beating Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti that year, some performance for a 'broken' horse!

Anyway the point stands, Dynaste ran with no real credit in the world hurdle and I don't really see why that is a reason to consider him superior to TFR and GC (both of whom did)

Colonel Sanders

Betfair market is suggesting Dynaste goes for the Jewson

Tbh if I owned him I'd be very tempted to take the Jewson in ahead of the RSA but I'm not on ante post so easy for me to say.

RSA is an atrocious race if he ducks it

Slattsy

Twas all over Twitter last night that they'd go Jewson.

Slattsy

The RSA could be one of the worst in years if Dynaste doesnt turn up.

I dont fancy Unioniste or Hadrians Approach. Boston Bob is underpriced on what he's done.
Then you've a load of rags

Shocking race.

droidman123

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Betfair market is suggesting Dynaste goes for the Jewson

Tbh if I owned him I'd be very tempted to take the Jewson in ahead of the RSA but I'm not on ante post so easy for me to say.

RSA is an atrocious race if he ducks it

I read somewhere yesterday that the jewson is pipes first choice, dont know how the owner feels.

SRFC

droidman123 wrote: »

I read somewhere yesterday that the jewson is pipes first choice, dont know how the owner feels.

Nicholls reckons hes a penalty kick in the Jewson and they heard whispers he hasnt been right this year at home he said,him and mccain also give captain conan no chance in the jewson.

dk6dk6

So seems most definately that Dynaste runs in the Jewson, another bottler in David Pipe and this is the problem with so many mickey mouse races at the festival now. It like Mullins raving about Quevegas achievement which wouldnt have been possible at all back in the 3 day festival, Mullins should actually be ashamed if you ask me.

Colonel Sanders

While I agree that the extra day (and extra races) has diluted the quality I'd not be a huge fan if the RSA for a young chaser

I don't see it as a case of "bottling" anything, just doing what's best for the horses long term future.

TheMilkyPirate

Couldn't see past BB anyway but if Dynaste is gone to the Jewson then BB is a shoo-in.

Still 5/1 available as well.

UrbanSea

Not impressed with Boston Bob at all. Lots and lots of money for Goulanes from the same stable as Dynaste. Will go in again on Houblon des Obaeux think he is a cracking bet at 25s

droidman123

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Not impressed with Boston Bob at all. Lots and lots of money for Goulanes from the same stable as Dynaste. Will go in again on Houblon des Obaeux think he is a cracking bet at 25s

I only got 20-1 in p.powers last saturday for hdo

UrbanSea

I'm on 33/1 with Ladbrokes ante post but 25/1 still knocking around with one or two NRNB

jimjamcos

dk6dk6 wrote: »

So seems most definately that Dynaste runs in the Jewson, another bottler in David Pipe and this is the problem with so many mickey mouse races at the festival now. It like Mullins raving about Quevegas achievement which wouldnt have been possible at all back in the 3 day festival, Mullins should actually be ashamed if you ask me.

Build a bridge ffs. Go for a pint during mares race an leave little Quevega alone will ya! :P

mdwexford

Surely if it was a long term plan for Dynastes future to run in the Jewson (which I do see the point of with the RSA seeming to break a lot of horses) then they must have had this in mind months ago and should have informed the public.

I'll still be surprised if he's doesn't go in it but if he doesn't Boston Bob will be about 7/4 or so I'd imagine, backing him now nrnb should result in a nice free bet

Gringo180

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Not impressed with Boston Bob at all. Lots and lots of money for Goulanes from the same stable as Dynaste. Will go in again on Houblon des Obaeux think he is a cracking bet at 25s

Cracking each way bet some great form and is proven around Cheltenham, my only negative would be hes had a lot of racing for a 6 year old and would be a bit more exposed than others in the race.

faoile@n

dk6dk6 wrote: »

So seems most definately that Dynaste runs in the Jewson, another bottler in David Pipe and this is the problem with so many mickey mouse races at the festival now. It like Mullins raving about Quevegas achievement which wouldnt have been possible at all back in the 3 day festival, Mullins should actually be ashamed if you ask me.

Have you backed Quevega for the world or something #pockettalk

I for one looking forward to seeing Quevega making history when romping home for a fifth year in a row

Backstreet Moyes

Dynaste over 4/1 on Betfair now for the RSA.

kiers47

mdwexford wrote: »

I'll still be surprised if he's doesn't go in it but if he doesn't Boston Bob will be about 7/4 or so I'd imagine, backing him now nrnb should result in a nice free bet

There is absolutely no chance of him going off 7/4 with no dynaste. I would be surprised if he is much shorter than 3/1 possibly 5/2.

dk6dk6

faoile@n wrote: »

Have you backed Quevega for the world or something #pockettalk

I for one looking forward to seeing Quevega making history when romping home for a fifth year in a row

But it's not the same achievement considered the state of the race she keeps winning, if the horse was anywere near as good as many say then she'd be in the WH, fact.

Nobody can argue that the festival has alot of poor races since 4 days were introduced and we're seeing the problem again with David Pipe taking the soft option for Dynaste.

The hole point of Cheltenham is to see the best take on the best, Dynaste is not going to do that because of bottling connections and Quevega's connections have taken the soft option every year instead of letting the public see exactly how good she is.

RichieLawlor

With no Dynaste, If Ruby rides Unioniste Boston Bob probably won't, and shouldn't start favourite

Colonel Sanders

dk6dk6 wrote: »

But it's not the same achievement considered the state of the race she keeps winning, if the horse was anywere near as good as many say then she'd be in the WH, fact.

Or the trainer or owner might prefer a penalty kick to make history rather than a hard race over 3m (where she'd be no "good thing")

dk6dk6 wrote: »

we're seeing the problem again with David Pipe taking the soft option for Dynaste

I disagree the Jewson is a "soft option". While neither race looks absolutely top class I'd fear the likes of Captain Conan, Aupcharlie than Boston Bob & Hadrian's Approach. In any case they may simply be looking after a horse they believe to have a big future. Let's also not forget the Pipe's have a horse (Goulanes) who'd probably be more suited by the slog an RSA chase often becomes

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Dynaste is not going to do that because of bottling connections

I still don't see how they're "bottling" anything. It may be disrespectful to punters but I don't see anyone "bottling" anything

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Quevega's connections have taken the soft option every year instead of letting the public see exactly how good she is.

Up to this year they had a certain Big Bucks to worry about. Now they don't they are on the verge of a place in the history books if she can win the same race 5 times. Rock and hard place springs to mind

I'd love to see her run in the World Hurdle but it's easy for people with "no skin in the game" so to speak to train horses from their arm chairs

dahat

Quite happy to see Pipe take the easier option for Dynaste as it means my 8/1 about Unionste looks a good bet now.

Race looks wide open now and i most likely will back something at good odds on the day

dk6dk6

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Or the trainer or owner might prefer a penalty kick to make history rather than a hard race over 3m (where she'd be no "good thing")



I disagree the Jewson is a "soft option". While neither race looks absolutely top class I'd fear the likes of Captain Conan, Aupcharlie than Boston Bob & Hadrian's Approach. In any case they may simply be looking after a horse they believe to have a big future. Let's also not forget the Pipe's have a horse (Goulanes) who'd probably be more suited by the slog an RSA chase often becomes



I still don't see how they're "bottling" anything. It may be disrespectful to punters but I don't see anyone "bottling" anything



Up to this year they had a certain Big Bucks to worry about. Now they don't they are on the verge of a place in the history books if she can win the same race 5 times. Rock and hard place springs to mind

I'd love to see her run in the World Hurdle but it's easy for people with "no skin in the game" so to speak to train horses from their arm chairs

How is it not te soft option when even scudamore said dey wer considering te jewson because it looked so soft and big bucks wasn't winning world hurdles wen quevega first came on te scene so stop talking out of your hole, or did quevegas connections know sumting no1 else did wen big bucks was surprisingly good over hurdles.

Colonel Sanders

dk6dk6 wrote: »

How is it not te soft option when even scudamore said dey wer considering te jewson because it looked so soft and big bucks wasn't winning world hurdles wen quevega first came on te scene so stop talking out of your hole, or did quevegas connections know sumting no1 else did wen big bucks was surprisingly good over hurdles.

"Talking out of my hole", another quality post smacking of pocket talk & an armchair trainer knowing more than 2 hugely successful NH trainers

I repeat I don't think the opposition in the RSA is in anyway tougher than the Jewson. I think the RSA is physically a tougher race however and if I owned Dynaste he wouldn't be going anywhere near the RSA. Some owners/trainers actually look further ahead than the next race

Please elaborate on all the top class opposition (far ahead of the Jewson opposition) Dynaste would face if he lines up in the RSA?

When Quevega 1st came on the scene she hadn't proved herself over 3m. Indeed her first run over the trip let alone win was Punchestown 2010 after Big Bucks had abandoned chasing. They avoided probably the greatest staying hurdler we've seen in modern times (and who can blame them when they had the option of a penalty kick instead) & now he's no longer around are choosing to try make history rather than try win a race where the mare would be no certainty. Makes plenty of sense to me

Slattsy

CS - who do you fancy for the RSA?

For all your talk you never really give a pick.

Colonel Sanders

I only give a "pick" if its a race I've a strong opinion on and/or plan to have a bet. My enjoyment if racing extends past merely having a bet.

Despite having to defy a pile of trends I was leaning towards backing Dynaste, looks not to be an issue now. I've 10/1 Boston Bob but am not hugely confident, he doesn't have much chase experience & Ruby may desert him.

Lyreen Legend & Goulanes strike me as typical slogger types who seem to excel in this contest but lack of experience is a worry for the latter. I'd huge time for LL as a novice hurdler so he'd be my choice given a free bet.

Slattsy

By all accounts Ruby on Unioniste. So Townend on BB.
I'd be happy if i had 10/1 BB but cant touch it at 4s.

As i've said before, this looks an awful RSA, possibly the worst in the history of racing !!

Colonel Sanders

It does look a poor renewal, hence why I'd moved from not opposing Dynaste to actually backing him!

UrbanSea

Dynaste 6 on Betfair for this

I know I keep going on about Houblon des Obeaux but there's a big discrepancy in some of the prices I think.
Goulanes is a 10/1 shot. He beat Super Duty by a head on his only chase start (obviously very good for his only chase) but there remains a question mark over how this horse will run after only a month off, whilst he has been very promising, he may well be at his best fresh, winning a maiden hurdle after 4 months off, a handicap after 7 months and then his chase start after 2 and a half months off.

If that's the case that he needs to be very fresh, Super Duty is held by Poungach, who was readily held behind Houblon Des Obeaux over a trip too short for HDO at Wincanton earlier on in the season. Similarly,I don't see how Super Duty is five points shorter on BF

jimjamcos

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Dynaste 6 on Betfair for this

I know I keep going on about Houblon des Obeaux but there's a big discrepancy in some of the prices I think.
Goulanes is a 10/1 shot. He beat Super Duty by a head on his only chase start (obviously very good for his only chase) but there remains a question mark over how this horse will run after only a month off, whilst he has been very promising, he may well be at his best fresh, winning a maiden hurdle after 4 months off, a handicap after 7 months and then his chase start after 2 and a half months off.

If that's the case that he needs to be very fresh, Super Duty is held by Poungach, who was readily held behind Houblon Des Obeaux over a trip too short for HDO at Wincanton earlier on in the season. Similarly,I don't see how Super Duty is five points shorter on BF

I tend to agree with you and backed Houblon des Obeaux yesterday. Assuming Dynaste doesn't run, this is a terrible RSA with not a Gold Cup horse in sight and if having a bet we might as well look for some value. Boston Bob and Unioniste can hardly be described as value at 4's and 5's respectively given what they've done so far. Can't understand how Hadrian's Approach is priced 5 points better than Unioniste after their last run when Unioniste was lucky to hold on against a Hadrian's Approach who blundered 2 out. I know Nicholls said Unioniste wasn't fully tuned up but couldn't have either of them.

Next in betting is Goulanes who needed every last inch of the 3m.1 to beat Super Duty LTO. He falls into the Back in Focus category for me and should be in 4miler IMO. While he beat a good horse in Super Duty, McCain has always stated that his horse performs much better on good ground like he got when 2nd to Simonsig at Aintree last year. Goulanes just about beat Super Duty on soft and the fact that Super Duty was the winner all over before tiring is a negative in my book. Also the fact that McCain is likely to swerve this race with SD for easier option doesn't say much for Goulanes form IMO.

Next in betting is Lyreen Legend. Had a small ew bet on this horse today after most of panel at Cafe on Seine advised it and reported Hughes to be sweet on his chances and improvement for step up to 3m. Apparently he was only back working a few weeks when a tiring close 4th at Leopardstown LTO. Travels well and at 14/1, he's worth a bet on his proximity LTO to likely fav BB alone.

Now Houblon Des Obeaux...what price was Rocky Creek before he was pulled, 10/1? And what price would Rocky Creek be if he was still in the race? Venetia Williams said that her horses price was an insult a few weeks back and she was right. His run LTO just behind Rocky Creek, in ground similar to what he might get here, was good and his earlier form not far behind Highland Lodge, Benifficient and Harry Topper is decent form. He has also showed well against Captain Conan and Third Intention at a trip too short.

I think that there's very little between the RSA's field, if Dynaste deflects to Jewson. I do think Lyreen Legend and Houblon Des Obeaux represent value against the principles however.

Huntley

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Dynaste 6 on Betfair for this

I know I keep going on about Houblon des Obeaux but there's a big discrepancy in some of the prices I think.
Goulanes is a 10/1 shot. He beat Super Duty by a head on his only chase start (obviously very good for his only chase) but there remains a question mark over how this horse will run after only a month off, whilst he has been very promising, he may well be at his best fresh, winning a maiden hurdle after 4 months off, a handicap after 7 months and then his chase start after 2 and a half months off.

If that's the case that he needs to be very fresh, Super Duty is held by Poungach, who was readily held behind Houblon Des Obeaux over a trip too short for HDO at Wincanton earlier on in the season. Similarly,I don't see how Super Duty is five points shorter on BF

It was yourself who argued with me that the staying chasers were rubbish this year and you thought a novice could challenge. Considering this was the horse you nominated to do that you must feel he is a massive contender for the novice event?

UrbanSea

Huntley wrote: »

It was yourself who argued with me that the staying chasers were rubbish this year and you thought a novice could challenge. Considering this was the horse you nominated to do that you must feel he is a massive contender for the novice event?

Yeah,I was probably wrong about that and I'll hold my hands up, think Bobs Worth and SDC will prove that wrong, still don't like Silviniaco.

I said that after he won at Wincanton and I do think he's a massive contender especially if Dynaste defects. Not sure how Goulanes is half his price. Have backed him at 33/1 and at 20/1 can see him going off about 14s on the day.

dk6dk6

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

"Talking out of my hole", another quality post smacking of pocket talk & an armchair trainer knowing more than 2 hugely successful NH trainers

I repeat I don't think the opposition in the RSA is in anyway tougher than the Jewson. I think the RSA is physically a tougher race however and if I owned Dynaste he wouldn't be going anywhere near the RSA. Some owners/trainers actually look further ahead than the next race

Please elaborate on all the top class opposition (far ahead of the Jewson opposition) Dynaste would face if he lines up in the RSA?

When Quevega 1st came on the scene she hadn't proved herself over 3m. Indeed her first run over the trip let alone win was Punchestown 2010 after Big Bucks had abandoned chasing. They avoided probably the greatest staying hurdler we've seen in modern times (and who can blame them when they had the option of a penalty kick instead) & now he's no longer around are choosing to try make history rather than try win a race where the mare would be no certainty. Makes plenty of sense to me

So u know more than scudamore and pipe then, because they did call it softer. Comedy gold smacks of pocket talk and armchair trainer, what would you know because you're talking absolute pony. Or are you denying that scudamore said that, or you denying Mullins also admitted taking the soft option. So please stop making yourself look stupid. Makes sense to you avoiding a championship race, why am I not surprised with your mentality. Who the hell will remember winners of the Mickey Mouse mares hurdles in years to come, nobody.

mdwexford

Captain Conan looks tougher opposition than anything in the RSA to me anyway.

Colonel Sanders

dk6dk6 wrote: »

So u know more than scudamore and pipe then, because they did call it softer

I never said I know more than anyone

If Pipe and Scudamore said the Jewson was "softer" and meant the opposition is weaker I disagree. If by "softer" They meant a less gruelling race then I agree

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Comedy gold smacks of pocket talk and armchair trainer, what would you know because you're talking absolute pony

Care to elaborate? I'd appreciate you starting with how you feel the potential opposition Dynaste will face in the Jewson is weaker.

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Or are you denying that scudamore said that

Nope, didn't see the quote myself however.

dk6dk6 wrote: »

or you denying Mullins also admitted taking the soft option.

Stop putting words in my mouth I agree the mares is a softer option than the WH

dk6dk6 wrote: »

So please stop making yourself look stupid

Please point out what I said that was so stupid

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Makes sense to you avoiding a championship race, why am I not surprised with your mentality

I never said I agree with their decision I understand why they are doing it however. I'd love to see her race in the WH but it's easy for me to say. I can't promise I wouldn't do the same if I owned her. Quevega would be well fancied in the world hurdle, she'd most certainly not be a certainty

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Who the hell will remember winners of the Mickey Mouse mares hurdles in years to come, nobody.

Real racing fans will recall a good mare becoming the first horse since Golden Miller to win a festival race 5 years in succession, mug punters with no interest in the actual sport may not

mdwexford wrote: »

Captain Conan looks tougher opposition than anything in the RSA to me anyway.

Agreed

premierstone

well said colonel, the droolers who only populate such forums as this in March may not remember but any genuine horse racing fan will.

And the Jewson looks every bit as strong as the RSA if not indeed stronger.

dk6dk6

premierstone wrote: »

well said colonel, the droolers who only populate such forums as this in March may not remember but any genuine horse racing fan will.

And the Jewson looks every bit as strong as the RSA if not indeed stronger.

The droolers, comedy gold. The jewson looks stronger than the rsa, I've heard it all now

wesleysniper38

dk6dk6 wrote: »

The droolers, comedy gold. The jewson looks stronger than the rsa, I've heard it all now

+ 1 .

I'm following both NH and Flat for the past 30 years in Irl, UK and abroad..
Opinions are what were all entitled to but some of the rants expressions of opinion are pure comedy.

Colonel Sanders

dk6dk6 wrote: »

The droolers, comedy gold. The jewson looks stronger than the rsa, I've heard it all now

Timeform have 2 of the likely Jewson field rated 150 or more (Aupcharlie on 151 & Captain Conan 150p) while of the potential RSA field only one is (Boston Bob on 154p)

Rather than just mouthing off is there any chance you'll actually elaborate on your opinions on the relative strengths of both races?

Hulk Hands

In terms of Dynaste's chances of winning then the Jewson would look to be the softer option given that he's a sure fire stayer of the trip, the obvious doubt in the RSA. His chances of winning the Jewson are greater than his chances in the RSA certainly, so in that sense it's a softer option, especially given the difference in prize money. However, I think it's obvious that the Jewson bar Dynaste is also a classier field at this stage. The RSA has cut up so much that the very average pair of Lyreen Legend and Goulanes are looking like two of the most solid prospects in the race, certainly at the prices. I thought after Bostons Angels RSA, we would never see one as bad again, but this one has the potential to challenge it

Harry Angstrom

Nicky Henderson seemed to think that Dynaste was all set for the Jewson when being interviewed on Channel 4 Racing today. He didn't seem to think the RSA was part of Pipe's plans.

Slattsy

Walsh confirmed on Unioniste.
Surely he'll go off favourite if GC goes Jewson, which seems likely.