A two tier recession

okiss

I would agree that we are having a two tier recession. The jobs market was never as good in the midlands as people stayed in jobs once they got work.
Now there are very few jobs in the midlands and the so called job bridge is being used as a form of cheap labour.
I was speaking to a man recently and I asked him were things as bad in the 1980's. He said no due to the fact the most people hadn't much in the 1980's and now everyone is in so much debit that it is far harder for them. He said that any one with out ties here will leave as they see no hope the future.
I have a large number of relatives between the ages of early 20's to late 40's.
The eldest went to London after finishing college as there was no work here.
Now x number of years later the youngest is working in London due to the same thing.

strongback

I see it that there are at least 3 tiers to this recession. Depending on which tier people sit very much reflects their opinion.


Tier 1 – People Who Bought Their House Pre-2000

-They have either paid off their mortgage or have very manageable repayments.

-The promissory note deal eases the problems for today which they are happy about. The deal extends to 2048, most of these people will be retired in 10-15 years so won’t bear the brunt of the repayments.

- They have been the most successful of any group at retaining employment albeit at reduced salaries.

-The biggest negative is this groups children are getting hit hardest by the recession.



Tier 2 – People Who Bought Their House Between 2000 and 2008

- Negative equity to manage of the order of €100k - €400k for an average semi-d depending on what year the house was purchased.

- The retirement age will probably be raised to 70 so this group will significantly pay towards the promissory note repayments.

- This is the group that the family home repossessions will come from now the banks are being forced to deal with bad loans.


Tier 3 – People under 30

- Poor employment opportunities. Emigration leading to a brain drain and the continuation of the collective sadness that has hung over this country since the famine.

- Will be paying back the promissory note until 2048.

- Lack of hope leads to increasing youth crime which can already be seen. Studies have shown the roots of the London riots lay in youth unemployment.

- Instead of the energy and enthusiasm of young people being harnessed to develop the country the youth are paradoxically a significant cost on the economy.


As was always the case Ireland is a country of me fein’ers, most people look at the issues in a very personal way. If we thought collectively we would probably have taken to the streets by now but that just isn't us.

I have to say I have encountered a certain smugness creeping in from some people over 50. I was taken aback a bit by it but I suppose they can see they have been protected the most and are in the best position.

nice_guy80

strongback wrote: »

I see it that there are at least 3 tiers to this recession. Depending on which tier people sit very much reflects their opinion.


Tier 1 – People Who Bought Their House Pre-2000

-They have either paid off their mortgage or have very manageable repayments.

-The promissory note deal eases the problems for today which they are happy about. The deal extends to 2048, most of these people will be retired in 10-15 years so won’t bear the brunt of the repayments.

- They have been the most successful of any group at retaining employment albeit at reduced salaries.

-The biggest negative is this groups children are getting hit hardest by the recession.



Tier 2 – People Who Bought Their House Between 2000 and 2008

- Negative equity to manage of the order of €100k - €400k for an average semi-d depending on what year the house was purchased.

- The retirement age will probably be raised to 70 so this group will significantly pay towards the promissory note repayments.

- This is the group that the family home repossessions will come from now the banks are being forced to deal with bad loans.


Tier 3 – People under 30

- Poor employment opportunities. Emigration leading to a brain drain and the continuation of the collective sadness that has hung over this country since the famine.

- Will be paying back the promissory note until 2048.

- Lack of hope leads to increasing youth crime which can already be seen. Studies have shown the roots of the London riots lay in youth unemployment.

- Instead of the energy and enthusiasm of young people being harnessed to develop the country the youth are paradoxically a significant cost on the economy.


As was always the case Ireland is a country of me fein’ers, most people look at the issues in a very personal way. If we thought collectively we would probably have taken to the streets by now but that just isn't us.

I have to say I have encountered a certain smugness creeping in from some people over 50. I was taken aback a bit by it but I suppose they can see they have been protected the most and are in the best position.

you forgot the huge number of people in late 20s to mid 30s who never bought a house or apartment in the boom.
plenty of them around.
I was at a stag weekend last summer - lads in early 30s, all employed, of the 14/15 there only 3/4 had bought houses.
they knew prices were too high.

a lot of them have reasonably good jobs and are waiting for the market to bottom out.
or, cannot get mortgage approval to buy
or, are living in Dublin so can't afford to buy

strongback

nice_guy80 wrote: »

you forgot the huge number of people in late 20s to mid 30s who never bought a house or apartment in the boom.
plenty of them around.
I was at a stag weekend last summer - lads in early 30s, all employed, of the 14/15 there only 3/4 had bought houses.
they knew prices were too high.

a lot of them have reasonably good jobs and are waiting for the market to bottom out.
or, cannot get mortgage approval to buy
or, are living in Dublin so can't afford to buy

You're right there is a fourth tier and probably a fifth and a sixth if the situation was analysed in more detail.

I think its fair to say the people now in their late 20's or early 30's worked in the boom and got skills and training. They also probably didn't earn enough 6 years ago to get a mortgage for €300-500k to buy a starter home. They dodged the bullet of negative equity but significant numbers of this group have emigrated, particularly those that worked in the construction sector. The people who stayed in Ireland are working for significantly reduced wages and have job security worries.

More experienced people who are less dispensable took their wage cuts from their very inflated pay packets that grew exponentially in the boom. Most of these people are mortgage free or have small repayments.

It seems to me the biggest issues facing us are youth unemployment and negative equity. Lets see if the government can finally make a dent in these problems.

Barracuda1

nice_guy80 wrote: »

you forgot the huge number of people in late 20s to mid 30s who never bought a house or apartment in the boom.
plenty of them around.
I was at a stag weekend last summer - lads in early 30s, all employed, of the 14/15 there only 3/4 had bought houses.
they knew prices were too high.

a lot of them have reasonably good jobs and are waiting for the market to bottom out.
or, cannot get mortgage approval to buy
or, are living in Dublin so can't afford to buy

House are now as cheap in the midlands as they were 10 years ago. I live in Mullingar and you'd could get a decent house in a good estate for 90k upwards.

StillWaters

RATM wrote: »

Voting turnout from the U-25's, about 20%
Voting turnout from the over 70's, about 70%.

where did you get those figures RATM? I have it at 62% and 92%. I accept the 62% is exaggerated as it is 62% who are registered to vote.

nice_guy80

Barracuda1 wrote: »

House are now as cheap in the midlands as they were 10 years ago. I live in Mullingar and you'd could get a decent house in a good estate for 90k upwards.

people don't want to buy until they are sure the market has bottomed out.
plus, a lot of the housing stock available is pure muck.
crap design, crap building standards, crap building materials

RATM

StillWaters wrote: »

where did you get those figures RATM? I have it at 62% and 92%. I accept the 62% is exaggerated as it is 62% who are registered to vote.

I can't remember the exact percentages but I'm pretty sure the turnout of the u-25's is ridiculously low. I think I read it in Michael Gallaghers Election in Ireland 2007 book, I sold it after finishing studying political science so don't have it to hand now unfortunately.

The 2011 election was an extraordinary one in that turnout was up across the board. But as far as turnouts go I'm pretty sure the u-25's have very poor nunbers, it might not be 20% but I am doubting it is a whole lot more than 30% and would be shocked if it averages anywhere near 60% across all elections. Like I said I can't recall the exact percentages but I remember reading it at the time and being shocked by it, so much so that I brought it up with Prof.Gallagher once and he basically said that by and large the policies of Irish political parties are the ones that old age pensioners demand, primarily because constituency by constitunecy it is older people who vote in by far the biggest numbers, therefore any potential TD would be stupid not to pander to their demands.

The way the OAPs reacted against the FF govt over taking away medical cards from them a few years ago was symbolic of this. RTE has a classic piece of them protesting in a church on Westland Row, all of them getting angry as hell over it. The thing that stood out to me was when RTE did interviews they all had posh Dublin accents and were very very well dressed, in other words the type of people who could have afforded paying €50 to see a doctor. But the govt backed down almost immediately as they knew the wrath of OAPs would be electoral meltdown.

Then on the other hand in one single stroke of a pen they cut 40% from the dole money of u-25's. There was no protests, no media coverage and the government totally got away with it. Unlike the wealthy OAP's protesting that day these young people could not afford the cuts but they were rammed through with electoral impunity, mainly because u-25's cannot swing an election because the majority of them don't bother to vote.