Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Dotsie~tmp

Well i finally received my diploma in weatherology from wikipedia.

Forecast: No Snow

Iancar29

snow probability chances in DUblin .... :cool:

lucernarian

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Indeed they're not, although the lifted index value is very very high and that does have an impact on how far relatively warm air from the sea will be advected upwards. The main consequence of both SSTs and upper air temps being colder than Dec 2010 would be (IMO) that we need a longer sea fetch for the cold breeze to get the moisture necessary to generate showers, ignoring any inherent instability in the air flow. So the Isle of Mann shadow could make a big difference this time around.

Actually I'll backtrack on the above bit about lifted index. Lifted Index is practically irrelevant in a setup like this. It's not that LI will have an "impact" on convection, it's moreso describing that there's not much potential for thundery weather. CAPE is somewhat reasonable all things considered, though the capacity of such cold air to generate showers is limited. We will need some dry/bright weather over Monday to get proper convection going over the sea, especially for those places where the wind will cross Wales before reaching the sea.

Speak Now

Eoin Sherlock on newstalk said risk of wintry precip on high ground in north and east on Monday.

Probably spelt his name wrong, its the guy that sounds like Padraig Harrington.

Larbre34

I'm with the Met, evidence for some unusual March cold, but the explosive scenario MT is progging with significant local accumulations from a Monday spell is eyebrow raising and a really big call. He really has stuck his hat over the parapet on this one.

Im going for a raw wind, mixed showery precip at sea level and some sugar coating above 200m, days and nights 2-3C below the norm up to Friday. Ill be very pleased to be wrong.

srocliffe

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm with the Met, evidence for some unusual March cold, but the explosive scenario MT is progging with significant local accumulations from a Monday spell is eyebrow raising and a really big call. He really has stuck his hat over the parapet on this one.

Im going for a raw wind, mixed showery precip at sea level and some sugar coating above 200m, days and nights 2-3C below the norm up to Friday. Ill be very pleased to be wrong.

I'm not really sure where you are getting the "mixed showery precip at sea level" from, it may turn out drier than some would hope, but based on the current model output, there is no doubt that any precipitation falling will not be mixed, the uppers and dew points are way too low for rain or sleet (for 48 hours at least, from about 12PM Sunday).

force eleven

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Eoin Sherlock on newstalk said risk of wintry precip on high ground in north and east on Monday.

Probably spelt his name wrong, its the guy that sounds like Padraig Harrington.

He said UK would get more of 'the white stuff' . Nothing out of the ordinary whatsoever so, according to Met E. A bit cold for sure, hard frosts. No disruption.

Iancar29

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Actually I'll backtrack on the above bit about lifted index. Lifted Index is practically irrelevant in a setup like this. It's not that LI will have an "impact" on convection, it's moreso describing that there's not much potential for thundery weather. CAPE is somewhat reasonable all things considered, though the capacity of such cold air to generate showers is limited. We will need some dry/bright weather over Monday to get proper convection going over the sea, especially for those places where the wind will cross Wales before reaching the sea.

Goood on ya !

Heres an image i found and added the vital piece of info that we obviously will have tick off the list


We'll just have to cross our fingers for the chance of enough convection for thundersnow.

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm with the Met, evidence for some unusual March cold, but the explosive scenario MT is progging with significant local accumulations from a Monday spell is eyebrow raising and a really big call. He really has stuck his hat over the parapet on this one.

Im going for a raw wind, mixed showery precip at sea level and some sugar coating above 200m, days and nights 2-3C below the norm up to Friday. Ill be very pleased to be wrong.

I agree that I might not be as widespread as said but come on where are you seeing the risk being only at 200m +? lol !

:cool:

Redsunset

I think all will be more clear come morning. Take a brake. I am.

sully2010

Well I remember very well in 2010 I was working in Celbridge, watched the lunchtime weather forecast and met.ie said a possibility of a few light flurries on the east coast. Got a phone call from the OH at 4pm saying it was bucketing down in Dublin CC. Decided to leave Celbridge straight away to go home (DCC).

Hit a 2 hour very heavy streamer, got home 4 and a half hours later to 4-5 inches of snow. Just saying that its almost impossible to predict how, when and how heavy these streamers will be, precip charts don't model streamers well. Conditions are deffo favourable on Monday for this so maybe met.ie should at least be hinting at the possibility.

This happened several other times in 2010 when met.ie underestimated the Irish seas snow dumping potential;)

dacogawa

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm with the Met, evidence for some unusual March cold

Not bashing here just pointing out that on the met main page it has temps of 6c for Sunday around the Dublin area & on their 5 day forecast the highest temp of the day is 2c... that's just confusing but make what you will of it

lucernarian

srocliffe wrote: »

I'm not really sure where you are getting the "mixed showery precip at sea level" from, it may turn out drier than some would hope, but based on the current model output, there is no doubt that any precipitation falling will not be mixed, the uppers and dew points are way too low for rain or sleet (for 48 hours at least, from about 12PM Sunday).

Exactly. Any prediction for rain or at least non-frozen precipition at this stage is either delusional nonsense or on a source of information most posters here don't have access to and which contradicts most of the global model output!

Like bringing high ground into it, sure it will be cold enough for snow on Dollymount beach in Dublin if there was precipitation for it! Orographic lift will give more snow for hills but it will be cold enough for snow or graupel showers at low levels along the east coast on Monday according to every single last bit of model output available now.

I can understand differing interpretations of data but what are Met Éireann playing at?? It's the job of scientists to use their experience and reason and data at hand to give a reasonable expectation of what further results will be.

Davaeo09

As a snow lover ive been saying all inter to my friends, there will be snow on x y and z. After the disappointments of January I gave up hope I started job this week and now it looks like were in for a white out and I wont be able to enjoy it!
FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS!

whitebriar

Redsunset wrote: »

I think all will be more clear come morning. Take a brake. I am.

I wouldn't use the brake at all on Monday if Iwere you,you'll slide into the ditch

patneve2

Yeah so true, current model output suggests that during heavy showers it could snow even snow below sea level :P Dew points perfect, 850s seem to in the range of -10 to -13...only variable that isn't nailed yet are 500 hPa temps (hopefully these will be lower than -30). I'd be surprised if at least some areas didn't get a proper dumping with the charts currently on offer

Bejubby

Met.ie showing little or no precip on sunday /monday
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

dopolahpec

Davaeo09 wrote: »

As a snow lover ive been saying all inter to my friends, there will be snow on x y and z. After the disappointments of January I gave up hope I started job this week and now it looks like were in for a white out and I wont be able to enjoy it!
FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS!

You need to be unemployed to enjoy snow? News to me

whitebriar

Gerry just did the mid afternoon forecast there on Rte one.
13c Sunday ..
6c Monday lads...

:eek: :eek:

barney 20v

whitebriar wrote: »

Gerry just did the mid afternoon forecast there on Rte one.
13c Sunday ..
6c Monday lads...

:eek: :eek:

context please?? surely highs in the sw on both days??

Wicklow Weather

Thats it I am going to ring ME and ask why they have not even issued a low level windchill warning for the elderly etc etc

cherryghost

whitebriar wrote: »

Gerry just did the mid afternoon forecast there on Rte one.
13c Sunday ..
6c Monday lads...

:eek: :eek:

I cant see temps that high on any chart

whitebriar

cherryghost wrote: »

I cant see temps that high on any chart

The 13 was in the Sw Sunday.
The Monday temp was in the each day grid in the closing caption.
There was mention of it getting much colder alright but no details and no mention of wintry showers.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Has to be a wind up lads, their site shows 0 temps at midday on Monday

Edit: I didn't mean a windup by you WB !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wicklow mountains get a bit at 6am Sunday

kenmc

If it's any consolation, yr.no is showing snow from 0h00 to 18h00 on Monday in Dubland
(and then again on Paddys Day afternoon)

Wicklow Weather

got through to Pat Clark and he reckons they have been warning about the upcoming forecast and severe cold. He said its not usual ME policy to issue wind chill warning but it will be mentioned to his boss for later forecasts. I told him I felt they were underestimating the cold event and he said they are not and have included cold warnings on numerous occasions. Interesting to see if this evenings forecasts mention wind chill!!

lucernarian

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

got through to Pat Clark and he reckons they have been warning about the upcoming forecast and severe cold. He said its not usual ME policy to issue wind chill warning but it will be mentioned to his boss for later forecasts. I told him I felt they were underestimating the cold event and he said they are not and have included cold warnings on numerous occasions. Interesting to see if this evenings forecasts mention wind chill!!

It need to be impressed upon media outlets and Met Eireann that this bad weather is outside the time people typically expect snowfall and on the back of a light winter so far. This will take people quite by suprise! The frost on Monday night will be severe and will surely hamper whatever amount of plant growth that's taken place in 2013.

Larbre34

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

got through to Pat Clark and he reckons they have been warning about the upcoming forecast and severe cold. He said its not usual ME policy to issue wind chill warning but it will be mentioned to his boss for later forecasts. I told him I felt they were underestimating the cold event and he said they are not and have included cold warnings on numerous occasions. Interesting to see if this evenings forecasts mention wind chill!!

Good call! Fair play to Pat as well

Iancar29

Met Office have theres out... Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0837 on Fri 8 Mar 2013

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1200 on Saturday and 0800 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Turning colder over the weekend as cold air spreads south across the country during Saturday. Also during Saturday, a band a rain will move south across England and rain is expected to turn increasingly to sleet or snow down to low levels by the evening. Further snow showers are expected to follow into some eastern parts with a risk of a period of heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. The cold weather will also be exacerbated across all areas for a time by brisk easterly winds bringing a marked wind chill. This spell of cold weather is expected to last across most areas until at least Tuesday and perhaps longer.

Larbre34

Iancar29 wrote: »

Met Office have theres out... Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Yes but their 5 day text forecast is fairly moderate for snowfall. The warning does not apply to NI or Wales