Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

cherryghost

0z still looking pretty much the same. Low is slightly further south again.

EDIT: More confidence for a cold reload on Wednesday so far....

EDIT: UKMO also looks good for sustained cold.

derekon

This morning's 6z ECM is amazing at just T+24.

In summary, -8 upper temperatures will flood over the north and east of Ireland from tomorrow afternoon.

Then -12 upper temperatures (yes that is -12!!) will remain over Ireland for most of Monday and Tuesday with the -8 upper temps not clearing the east coast until sometime on Thursday.

However why do I have a niggling feeling we will get no snow out of this? Probably due to the following:

1. Met Eireann's latest update does mention snow but just a "dusting" confirming any amounts that fall will be small

2. Will there be enough precipitation? I can't see how there will be.

3. Dependence on streamers. Will they occur?

4. Although I would happily bank MT"s update from this morning, we cannot discount the fact that (all all due respect here MT), some of his predictions have not come to pass over the past year or so in terms of severe cold and snow for Ireland (in particular the January 2013 assertion that a December 2010 event during February 2013 was very likely). So MT, love your forecasts but I think even you would say its fair that people should not get their hopes up about Monday - also you might note MT's forecast is peppered with words such as "likely", "may" and "could". All for valid reasons, weather is volatile. But people think so highly of MT, I think expectations should be kept in check.

One final thing, where are all the posters this morning? :rolleyes:

D

munsterlegend

All very quiet here this morning! No big back track overnight from what I can see so still all to to play for Sunday night and Monday.

DOCARCH

derekon wrote: »

One final thing, where are all the posters this morning? :rolleyes:

Oh....just waiting.

patneve2

As I said before my worry is the strength of the wind. If the wind is too strong, showers will not form properly. other than that it looks v good for snow sunday/monday.

red_bairn

patneve2 wrote: »

As I said before my worry is the strength of the wind. If the wind is too strong, showers will not form properly. other than that it looks v good for snow sunday/monday.

I'm in my burrow...waiting... ^_^

ninebeanrows

NAE is cold!! Has a few mm hitting the east coast but the GFS precip usually calls this the best and a few mms in these forecast usually mean ~5-10mm per 6hrs or so.

Bur what a chart:

patneve2

500 hPa temperature vastly improved on the GFS, down to -34/35 over the Irish sea Monday morning

heffoo

Its unsually quiet in here today considering were t minus 24h to an epic cold spell

pad199207

heffoo wrote: »

Its unsually quiet in here today considering were t minus 24h to an epic cold spell

Thats the negative effect of a Winter 2012/13 im afraid

dacogawa

heffoo wrote: »

Its unsually quiet in here today considering were t minus 24h to an epic cold spell

Everyone's getting some sleep as they will be up all night tomorrow!

Still looking lovely...

dopolahpec

Looked through the GFS ensembles. At this stage it looks highly unlikely that the low will trouble the south coast.

One thing I noted over on the Netweather forum was Ian Ferguson (from British Met) starting to talk up localised heavy snow from north sea streamers. The north sea is currently 4.5 C I think. That's 3 degrees cooler than the Irish Sea. Does this mean the Irish Sea is potentially a better source of heavier showers?

Iancar29

06 NAE picking is picking up on the streamers for Leinster region 2moro night :cool: , A nice dusting would be the order of the day:D

... nothing epic mind you...

Pangea

M.T. says 70% chance of snow for Donegal, where exactly would these showers come from, the irish sea?
Dont think il get anything out of this. Weathering might get a bit hes a good bit further east.

heffoo

dacogawa wrote: »

Everyone's getting some sleep as they will be up all night tomorrow!

Still looking lovely...

I certainly will be up as im in a prime location for snow (225mtrs asl in the wicklow mts area) happy days

snowstorm445

I'm having doubts about seeing any snow here tomorrow night. Met Éireann's website charts show no precipitation across Ireland on Sunday night into Monday, despite being cold (although they do show potential streamers along the east coast on Monday morning).

munsterlegend

Certainly looking very good for the East Coast. The South Coast event needs a major upgrade in the afternoon and evening models which appears unlikely. Might get a light sprinkle if the showers penetrate inland on the strong winds.

Redsunset

I too had a look through the GFS ensembles and some say the South still has a chance from the low. Small chance but it's there.

Wouldn't this be lovely.


Also I cannot see the Irish sea not exploding to life for the East. Those small precip numbers are just the guide to Say Streamer Alert. Changing thread title to reflect risk.

fr wishy washy

Very Strange altogether. Every window door in the house is open lovely day here in West Wicklow real Spring like feel to it. Hardly can believe whats to come.

Trotter

When you guys says east coast.. How far west do you consider it to be? As in west towards say the Waterford Cork border or Only as far as Wexford?

Weathering

Pangea wrote: »

M.T. says 70% chance of snow for Donegal, where exactly would these showers come from, the irish sea?
Dont think il get anything out of this. Weathering might get a bit hes a good bit further east.

I know. Te be honest I'm a bit doubtful about seeing snow here. Further East in Ulster defo will. Story of our lives this Winter

Northern areas of Donegal East facing coast will fair best

weatherfiend

This is a really strange feeling. We've been living in the middle of cloud for the last three days. The ground is completely saturated, front grass under water and it's really mild despite the damp.

If the temp drops as dramatically as it appears in the next 36 hours, I presume all this water just will just freeze quickly because with the pea soup we're enveloped in, there's no way it's going to evaporate. I'll scream if all the lovely snow dumping is a damp squib (pardon the pun) because the ground is too wet!!!

omegaultimo2

fr wishy washy wrote: »

Very Strange altogether. Every window door in the house is open lovely day here in West Wicklow real Spring like feel to it. Hardly can believe whats to come.

In Wicklow in slightly higher grounds,windows open but it's completely misty sky's and pretty cold to be honest.Cant really get the sense of a lovely day

Saganist

Thread should be upgraded to a Level 1 at least ?

Pangea

BBC forecast showed white from Belfast to Sligo for Saturday night.

esposito

Would love to see the deep cold continue into wednesday and thursday. I'll settle for a 3-5cm in Dublin but hopefully a tad bit more !!

Speak Now

weatherfiend wrote: »

This is a really strange feeling. We've been living in the middle of cloud for the last three days. The ground is completely saturated, front grass under water and it's really mild despite the damp.

If the temp drops as dramatically as it appears in the next 36 hours, I presume all this water just will just freeze quickly because with the pea soup we're enveloped in, there's no way it's going to evaporate. I'll scream if all the lovely snow dumping is a damp squib (pardon the pun) because the ground is too wet!!!

The wet ground wont be a factor when it comes to sticking. If its cold enough snow will lodge regardless.

Speak Now

Those -8 uppers way off the west coast after they hanging around the Irish sea several times this winter.

maquiladora

Hi-res UKMO model for 9pm Sunday (as far as it goes). Showing streamers from the North Sea getting into England/Scotland. Dark blue corresponds to very light snizzle on these charts btw.


Here is the HIRLAM for the same time :

http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/hirlamukpcp45.gif

Doesn't make as much of those North Sea streamers but shows more snow for southern England than the UKMO.

Redsunset

That's great news. North sea streamers are another good guide to when the colder air crosses the Irish sea.