Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

TheMilkyPirate

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

HIRLAM here shows the precip clipping the east coast but also begins to show the development of irish sea streamers towards the end of its run.

Redsunset

Yes it does baraca.Seen that bit earlier. Wouldn't take much notice of precip intensity on them. They are showing steamers and the rest will follow through.

bb1234567

I cant believe this is actually happening

Trotter

Just following on from my last Q..
Do the Irish Sea streamers tend to reach inwards onto the south east coast? (Waterford/Wexford?) or are we too far west?

Jordan5372

so what are all these charts saying? we in for a severe snow storm in next couple of days? how sure can we be?

Conrach

I am not holding out much hope for snow. I don't do well out of streamers. With the Isle of Man shadow and the Mournes I frequently watch streamers coming across and go around me.

Anyway, the forecasts over the last few day have me baffled. They are so different there is no 2 services that are even remotely alike.

Take for example the major 2. UKMO and NW.

Pop in my postcode and UKMO gives lowest temp of -5 overnight with windchill of -9 but no cold weather warning!! They also give 0% chance of precipitation,none, zero, nada!

Now I go to NW and pop in postcode. They give lowest temp overnight -2 and a windchill of -8. They also start giving a risk of snow from midnight...starting at 56% and increasing to 95% risk of snow by midday tomorrow. This is also a major upgrade from last night.
UKMO hasn't changed it's forecast for me in the last 72hours.

There is just a huge disparancy between all the forecasts. I have never seen it as bad before.

Redsunset

Wow where on earth are you coming up with the idea of severe snowstorm. Possible snow for the South Sunday evening and then the East gets steamers of varied intensity. Alot of places could be hit and miss. Wind will be changing over the course of the day so al eastern regions at Risk.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Just following on from my last Q..
Do the Irish Sea streamers tend to reach inwards onto the south east coast? (Waterford/Wexford?) or are we too far west?

Depends on how beefy they are. They can get quite far inland when they are beefy, think back to the recent cold winters.

The models are not showing that type of beefy shower activity for this cold spell for Ireland. There will be some snow showers but all indications point to them being fairly light. I'd guess from a dusting to a couple of cm in mostly coastal counties.

It will feel bitterly cold though, regardless of snow. That much is certain.

John.Icy

Redsunset wrote: »

Wow where on earth are you coming up with the idea of severe snowstorm. Possible snow for the South Sunday evening and then the East gets steamers of varied intensity. Alot of places could be hit and miss. Wind will be changing over the course of the day so al eastern regions at Risk.

Was mentioned several times by MT yesterday IIRC in his ramps.

Can't blame someone for asking about a snowstorm considering some posts yesterday.

Fear_an_tarbh

Pangea wrote: »

M.T. says 70% chance of snow for Donegal, where exactly would these showers come from, the irish sea?
Dont think il get anything out of this. Weathering might get a bit hes a good bit further east.

Does the streamer effect also occur on the north coast? There's plenty of sea on a NE angle between there and Scotland and if anything the Atlantic in that region would be a degree or so warmer than the Irish sea? I don't fully get streamer formation, could anybody clear that up for me?

icesnowfrost

Wat is a streamer

DOCARCH

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Wat is a streamer

O..M..G! You're obviously new to this.

It's and elongated stream of white gold.

Harry Deerpark

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Wat is a streamer

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=streamer+%2B+weather

TheMilkyPirate

Considering I got 1cm from this:



I find it hard to believe I won't see quite a bit more from this:

Musicman2000

Just saw this over on Netweather looks good for the East and South East

The NAEFS warning system (based upon the MOGREPS solution the Met Office use

derekon

Just watched the TV forecast there following RTE1 news. Totally underwhelming. Just a few comments about it being cold on Monday with the odd wintry shower. Totally different to the BBC forecasts that really emphasize the very cold pool of air that will flow over the Ireland & Britain during the coming days. Why is Met Eireann not even alluding to the fact that day time temps on Monday will hover around the zero mark, let alone even mentioning snow fall ?

Are we missing something here on Boards? And yes, I understand that ME has to be socially responsible however if we just over a day away from this "event" and ME has not even mentioned, common sense would tell me to be worried!


D

sully2010

derekon wrote: »

Just watched the TV forecast there following RTE1 news. Totally underwhelming. Just a few comments about it being cold on Monday with the odd wintry shower. Totally different to the BBC forecasts that really emphasize the very cold pool of air that will flow over the Ireland & Britain during the coming days. Why is Met Eireann not even alluding to the fact that day time temps on Monday will hover around the zero mark, let alone even mentioning snow fall ?

Are we missing something here on Boards? And yes, I understand that ME has to be socially responsible however if we just over a day away from this "event" and ME has not even mentioned, common sense would tell me to be worried!


D

They seem to have an overwhelming fear of being wrong. I don't get it, isn't it better to warn people of the risks and if it doesn't come to pass big deal, its the weather at the end of the day. I mean a lot of businesses could lose a lot of money for not being made aware of at least a risk so they can factor in a plan B if there is disruption.

ZX7R

derekon wrote: »

Just watched the TV forecast there following RTE1 news. Totally underwhelming. Just a few comments about it being cold on Monday with the odd wintry shower. Totally different to the BBC forecasts that really emphasize the very cold pool of air that will flow over the Ireland & Britain during the coming days. Why is Met Eireann not even alluding to the fact that day time temps on Monday will hover around the zero mark, let alone even mentioning snow fall ?

Are we missing something here on Boards? And yes, I understand that ME has to be socially responsible however if we just over a day away from this "event" and ME has not even mentioned, common sense would tell me to be worried!


D

One thing for sure is, who ever is correct Werther its met eireann, BBC or our own M.T ,One of them must be right and everyone else will have egg on there face's.
I hope M.Tis right:D

maquiladora

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Just saw this over on Netweather looks good for the East and South East

The NAEFS warning system (based upon the MOGREPS solution the Met Office use

That seems fair enough to me. About 50-70% chance for ~3cm for those areas.
Only 1-10% chance of >5cm shows how extremely unlikely anything more than a few cm is.

I hope this helps set peoples expectations.

Red Pepper

For once I don't want to live in Galway. Looks like we wont get any snow.

Redsunset

Yes very good charts there on snow depths and %.
I think it will be much higher in Wicklow and higher Dublin if streamer lines up well.
Maq is right about some people on here perhaps expecting snowmagedden and then screaming Where's my snow.

It's a radar watch for sure from Sunday night.

ninebeanrows

That is NAEFS registering its coarse grid output.

The fact the forecast risk is there for the east coast snow showers is a fantastic positive. Expect the 1-3cm to be more like 5-15cm.

ZX7R

Its not the amount of snow that worries me, when the snow is fresh i can still get around on my motor bike,but when its 1cm or 10cm of snow once it gets compacted there no hope of me getting around. normally that doesn't worry me but i started a new job and don't want to miss a day just yet...
i will stat walking now:D

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

That is NAEFS registering its coarse grid output.

The fact the forecast risk is there for the east coast snow showers is a fantastic positive. Expect the 1-3cm to be more like 5-15cm.

I dunno, 5-15cm sounds almost impossible to me WC!

If you look at the UKMO warning, southern England which will be getting by far the most precip out of this, there is only "a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor".

Also in the Chief Forecaster's assessment : " At this stage there is uncertainty about how far north precipitation will push, and also the extent to which snow will settle on the recently warmed ground."

rameire

just contacted my county council to get the gritters out tomorrow, if they are going by met.ie they may have the deck chairs out, and mess up like normal.

dacogawa

Starting to turn a bit sleeeeaty across the water

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/?type=rain-snow-sleet

fr wishy washy

http://www.winterready.ie/Be-Winter-Ready.aspx
Well just in case.

JanuarySnowstor

I expect Cork's chances to be very good on Monday as the wind is almost direct Easterly. Of course as soon as it veers off shore it will die out.
Cork historically does very well out of a direct easterly esp East Cork

pistolpetes11

There is a MET thread for all talk about the MET please use it

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

I dunno, 5-15cm sounds almost impossible to me WC!

If you look at the UKMO warning, southern England which will be getting by far the most precip out of this, there is only "a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor".

Also in the Chief Forecaster's assessment : " At this stage there is uncertainty about how far north precipitation will push, and also the extent to which snow will settle on the recently warmed ground."

How? Lets say a shower drops 2/3mm of precip, and some places get 5 or 6 of these.

Anyway, it's all closing in soon. Even a chance of some snowfall tomorrow mid-morning. But probably wont amount to much.