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Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday
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maquiladora wrote: »I dunno, 5-15cm sounds almost impossible to me WC!
If you look at the UKMO warning, southern England which will be getting by far the most precip out of this, there is only "a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor".
Also in the Chief Forecaster's assessment : " At this stage there is uncertainty about how far north precipitation will push, and also the extent to which snow will settle on the recently warmed ground."
Maq, why do you think -12c to -14c 850 temps over 7c ish water wont deliver considerable streamers to the east coast? The models dont normally pick them up and the met rarely cop on to it either. I wouldnt be surprised if monday was like one of the heavy snow streamer days from Dec 2010! Amazing potential for beafy streamers at any time of the year! If this was may or june and we were looking at similiar temps then I would expect heavy snow then too- exceptionally cold airmass that is very rare here.
Dan
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Maq, why do you think -12c to -14c 850 temps over 7c ish water wont deliver considerable streamers to the east coast? The models dont normally pick them up and the met rarely cop on to it either. I wouldnt be surprised if monday was like one of the heavy snow streamer days from Dec 2010! Amazing potential for beafy streamers at any time of the year! If this was may or june and we were looking at similiar temps then I would expect heavy snow then too- exceptionally cold airmass that is very rare here.
Dan
The synoptic/conditions in March are different than if this was happening in the middle of winter.
In terms of Irish Sea streamers, the models are not showing anything other than light shower activity with little or no accumulations. The models certainly showed accumulations for the beefy streamers in 2010 for example. And the models are backed up by the assesments of the professional, qualified forecasters in both Ireland and the UKMO which show they are not overly concerned about accumulations from heavy convective snow showers at all.
Of course everyone wants to see lots of snow. But let's be realistic.
Look at the hi-res UK4 model for 9pm Sunday. There is -10 to -12 uppers over the Irish Sea and East coast here. I've seen more beef in a Tesco burger. :pac:
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maquiladora wrote: »The synoptic/conditions in March are different than if this was happening in the middle of winter.
In terms of Irish Sea streamers, the models are not showing anything other than light shower activity with little or no accumulations. The models certainly showed accumulations for the beefy streamers in 2010 for example. And the models are backed up by the assesments of the professional, qualified forecasters in both Ireland and the UKMO which show they are not overly concerned about accumulations from heavy convective snow showers at all.
Of course everyone wants to see lots of snow. But let's be realistic.
Look at the hi-res UK4 model for 9pm Sunday. There is -10 to -12 uppers over the Irish Sea and East coast here. I've seen more beef in a Tesco burger. :pac:
Maq ,in 30 years watching bbc forecasts based on the above,prior to east coast events lately and based on intuition prior to the models existing,the Uk met office have never modeled irish sea streamers properly even when they were in a northerly heading into wales(the only time they need to mention them)
They do catch features well 24hrs before they get here if they are exiting tbe UK though.
That famous Ian mcCaskill 'great white siberian army' youtuber from jan 87,I remember see'ing when it was broadcast live.
My point being,taking the above as gospel is not the way to do this.
Dublins snow of November/December 2010 should not have happened in the quantity and frequency it did,if you relied on the above to catch streamers.
Streamer forecasting require a high level of intuition and past experience.and being hit and miss difficult to pinpoint trajectory.0 -
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If the models are already showing light preciptation its a very good sign. Multiply what they are showing by about 5 and you have a more realistic figure
Only thing that worries me is the strength of the wind, was reading that 'lake effect' diminishes a lot if the wind goes over 45/50 mph 0 -
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Yeah but it also says the showers turn to rain as they head inland :rolleyes:downwiththatsor wrote: »Latest Nae rain / snowfall at Sat 12 + 42hrs looks dry except the east coast
Snow 10 miles out to sea and rain on the coast when dew points are going to be well below zero and all other parameters right for snow.
Kinda says a lot about how unreliable that chart is...0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »The synoptic/conditions in March are different than if this was happening in the middle of winter.
In terms of Irish Sea streamers, the models are not showing anything other than light shower activity with little or no accumulations. The models certainly showed accumulations for the beefy streamers in 2010 for example. And the models are backed up by the assesments of the professional, qualified forecasters in both Ireland and the UKMO which show they are not overly concerned about accumulations from heavy convective snow showers at all.
Of course everyone wants to see lots of snow. But let's be realistic.
Look at the hi-res UK4 model for 9pm Sunday. There is -10 to -12 uppers over the Irish Sea and East coast here. I've seen more beef in a Tesco burger. :pac:
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Hi Maq, if you live in Dublin don't be worried about this.
As another poster has alluded to, if you live on the east cost of IRELAND then I would not be worried about the BBC or UK Met Office showing no snow for our part of the world.
The week before Christmas 2010, Dublin was plastered with snow (just shy of a foot of snow recorded at Casement on Xmas day as per Met Eireann) - the BBC showed NO SNOW that week. Quite laughable.
Look I don't know whether it will snow tomorrow or Monday but the BBC/UK Met predicted nothing for that week in 2010. The following YouTube video shows what actually occurred!!
D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZcMEagq1Io0 -
Some great discussions going on here I must say . Nobody having a go at anyone , just genuine debate ... One thing that can make this forum
Great when done right . Sadly can't contribute much as I'm
In work .... Hopefully this evening though . I'm going for 3-5 cms of snow broadly on the easy coast .. 0 -
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HIRLAM (06z) prep projection for 06z Mon to 12z Mon. Shows the well modeled up to now 'streamers' that may well give a dusting but not showing anything vigorous or heavy. That dosen't mean to say there won't be the odd heavy snow shower but I'd not be surprised if this turned out to be a very forgettable event in the history of Irish weather.
What I don't understand is why some people are questioning the modeled intensity of prep simply because it isn't showing a total white out yet at the same time quite willingly accept that the same models are progging the 850 temps and wider pattern with such certainty.
New Moon
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Because history tells us,they model 850 temps well but not the extent of lake effect.
What I don't understand is why some people are questioning the modeled intensity of prep simply because it isn't showing a total white out yet at the same time quite willingly accept that the same models are progging the 850 temps and wider pattern with such certainty.
Remember the 2 to 5 cm's often forecast in Nov 2010? People were digging their cars out.
Not saying that will happen, but really are glasnevin going to see no lying snow at HQ?
You'd think so by their forecast.
What's so wrong with mentioning. percentage chances? Before it starts snowing.0 -
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What I don't understand is why some people are questioning the modeled intensity of prep simply because it isn't showing a total white out yet at the same time quite willingly accept that the same models are progging the 850 temps and wider pattern with such certainty.
In fairness, the 850mb temp, for example, is ONE variable so far easier for the models to get right. With precip modelling, many variables have to be taken into account and even then the nature of what eventually happens has a lot of randomness involved. It;s practically impossible to forecast when and where streamers will form and how intense they will get with current technology.
And also history tells us the models generally get the 850s right within 48 hrs, while precip is usually down to radar watching (under these kind of setups).0 -
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Met.ie update:http://www.met.ie/forecasts/ wrote:Today
Outbreaks of rain and sleet over the northern half of the country for a time tonight, turning to snow at times, but dying out before morning. Dry and rather cloudy elsewhere, apart from isolated showers in the south. Turning much colder as easterly winds strengthen but only patchy frost is likely in the north. Lowest temperatures 0 to +4 degrees Celsius.
Tomorrow
Very cold on Sunday. Many places dry with sunny spells but isolated wintry showers will affect eastern and southern counties, with some sleet and snow on higher ground. Winds will be fresh to strong, northeasterly and highest temperatures will range 4 to 8 degrees Celsius.
Outlook
OUTLOOK: Bitterly cold to begin, rather cold thereafter. Overall a lot of dry weather, but some wintry showers likely early on, with bands of rain later in the week. Very frosty conditions throughout, with the risk of ice.
TOMORROW NIGHT: Dry, cold and clear for much of the night, with widespread frosty and possibly icy conditions. Some wintry showers of rain, sleet and snow will feed in from the Irish Sea towards morning, with a dusting of snow likely across the east of Leinster (mainly on higher ground, but also on lower levels here too). Very cold, with overnight lows of -1 to - 4 degrees Celsius (coldest in the northwest), and mainly moderate northeast breezes.
MONDAY: An extremely cold day with a significant wind chill effect. Many places will be dry with good sunshine, however some wintry showers will continue to feed into Leinster, Munster and east Ulster, streaming in on a stiff northeast flow. Some snow accumulations on lower levels, but amounts will be fairly small. Highest temperatures just 1 to 4 degrees Celsius, but feeling even colder, with a strong northeast gradient. Becoming dry early in the night, with the exception of a few wintry flurries closer to the east coast. Another very cold and frosty night, as northerly winds fall off light, with icy in parts also. Lowest temperatures -1 to -6 degrees Celsius; again coldest in the northwest.
TUESDAY: A severe frost with ice in parts to begin. Still very cold but holding mainly dry with good sunshine - risk of a few wintry showers along eastern fringes, with one or two rain showers in the northwest later. Highest temperatures only around 4 or 5 degrees Celsius, with mostly moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh in the afternoon along eastern and southern counties. A sharp frost overnight, again with ice locally.
WEDNESDAY: Frost and ice in parts early on. Holding dry across most areas with sunny spells, but a few scattered rain showers will feed in from the Atlantic later. Temperatures improving on recent days, but still cool, with afternoon maxima of 5 to 8 degrees Celsius; coolest in the north. Winds will be moderate to fresh northwest.0 -
whitebriar wrote: »Remember the 2 to 5 cm's often forecast in Nov 2010? People were digging their cars out.
Fair point, though going only by a quick eye over on the various model parameters the air mass this time around, though colder, seems less unstable, particularly at 500 hPa level but however it turns out in the end, I think we will all learn something from it. New Moon
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think I'm going to attempt to forget about it for another 24hrs....*
This discussion has been closed.
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