Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

TheMilkyPirate

RedmanDublin wrote: »

Why would you think that?

Most likely the fact that it's going to happen.

Rooy

10c in Cork ,nice Spring day , hard to believe the big drop of temps coming !

RedmanDublin

baraca wrote: »

Most likely the fact that it's going to happen.

It bloody well better happen! After all of the hype before then not much happening...it'll be interesting to see if anything comes of it!

TheMilkyPirate

RedmanDublin wrote: »

It bloody well better happen! After all of the hype before then not much happening...it'll be interesting to see if anything comes of it!

Well it's going to get very cold no doubt about that and there will be snow in a good few places so I'd be inclined to call it an event at this stage.

Conrach

Was out and about 2 hours ago and temp in car was 8c, just popped out there now to drop daughter off and temp had dropped to 4c.

Geomy

Cooling down here in Clare now

Redsunset

I notice more than half the GFS ensembles still show snow for the South. Not saying it will happen.




And this is the mean map.

Deank

Geomy wrote: »

Cooling down here in Clare now

The same here in NE Kildare, I could actually see my breath when I was out the back a few minutes ago, and I wasn't having a smoke;)

It's cooling down rather quickly now, actually I was in South Dublin earlier and it felt much cooler there than it does here in Kildare.

Saganist

from met.ie

MONDAY: An extremely cold day with a significant wind chill effect. Many places will be dry with good sunshine, however some wintry showers will continue to feed into Leinster, Munster and east Ulster, streaming in on a stiff northeast flow. Some snow accumulations on lower levels, but amounts will be fairly small.

Deank

Saganist wrote: »

from met.ie

MONDAY: An extremely cold day with a significant wind chill effect. Many places will be dry with good sunshine, however some wintry showers will continue to feed into Leinster, Munster and east Ulster, streaming in on a stiff northeast flow. Some snow accumulations on lower levels, but amounts will be fairly small.

Is that a ramp from ME???:cool:

oterra

snowstorm445 wrote: »

We've seen plenty of examples of good snowy spells of weather for the East coast that were forecasted as nothing more than flurries. I'm very confident that many areas in Leinster should do well, maybe not a complete pasting but certainly something of significance. Ulster, especially the East should do well too.

The West looks staying dry apart from some scattered showers tomorrow, which could turn wintry so don't loose hope.

As for the South, while I went a bit overboard earlier stating that I don't expect to see any snow, I certainly don't think we will see much. The precipitation looks like it will pull away to the south leaving most of Munster dry, maybe a few flurries down along the coast and perhaps even a streamer moving in from Leinster. I certainly can't really believe MT's snowstorm like scenario, even though I'd love to see it. It should be cold though, no doubt about that.

I remember back in dec 2010 met eireann had forecasted chance of wintry showers on one of the days. I recall it really well as I had to go to dundrum shopping centre in south Dublin. It started to snow when I went in. By the time I came out the snow was persistent with visibility quite low. I made it back to firhouse (7kms away) 2 hours later. It snowed all day and left a blanket of 8 inches. This happened all from lake effect from the Irish Sea but the difference was the showers merged and fell over a 6 hour period!
Anyone else remember this! Met Eireann baffled me that day with their conservative precip forecast. I think the moral of the story is streamer effect is quite sporadic and can ignite over small turbulent areas. It's a tough phenomena to measure in advance!

Redsunset

I've taken down the watch and put out the warning triangle. Fact is it will turn extremely cold and will be a shock to many a system regardless of what snow is to fall. And there will be snow.

No levels yet.

cowana

Deank wrote: »

The same here in NE Kildare, I could actually see my breath when I was out the back a few minutes ago, and I wasn't having a smoke;)

It's cooling down rather quickly now, actually I was in South Dublin earlier and it felt much cooler there than it does here in Kildare.

4.3 degrees on my weather station in Glencullen,Dublin Mountains. Falling at 0.45 degrees per hour. Wind coming from the NNE.

Deank

cowana wrote: »

4.3 degrees on my weather station in Glencullen,Dublin Mountains. Falling at 0.45 degrees per hour. Wind coming from the NNE.

A NNE breeze will bring the temps down nicely.

Nabber

Lamp-post should be lighting up soon. Time to take up position.


Precip charts should be gaining more accuracy now.

Cantona's Collars

Maybe on topic or not but it started snowing in England today,reported by the match reporter covering the Norwich game........it's on the way folks:)

M.T. Cranium

No large changes in guidance but I am probably going to update my forecast to reflect a stronger chance of accumulating snow in south central counties tomorrow as the cold air pushes rapidly into the retreating frontal band, this might give only 1-3 cm but it may be an earlier onset than some were expecting.

This radar loop (click on "sequence") shows the current state of play in the bitterly cold air as it arrives in southern Sweden around 1300h, there's quite a strong response from the Baltic streamers, and then looking at the temperature data from southern stations you can see a 3-4 C drop in temperature despite the hour of day (that drop would normally just be setting in now). Wind observations from Malmo are in the range of 45 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr. As a previous poster mentioned, we don't want to see winds too strong but the current model indications are just about perfect for streamer integrity, not too strong and certainly not too weak where they would meander around offshore.

http://www.smhi.se/en/Weather/2.732/Rainfall-radar


As to the final outcome, I think there will be an impact from snow in Leinster, the other portions of the forecast are less certain and the impact may be somewhat marginal, but my hunch is that all the usual signs are in place for amounts to reach above 10 cm and possibly well above that in places, and as some of those could be in the Dublin region this could therefore be a high impact event -- I'm not talking about snow up to the armpits here, but any measurable snow will probably come as a shock to the system for those who aren't tuned in here or in one or two other places where some kind of forecast of significant snow has been made.

However, the official forecast is gradually creeping closer to what most of you seem to be thinking (leaving out what I may be thinking) and that's good, I would be happy enough to see the outcome well predicted generally and nobody seriously caught out. It will be interesting for sure, how often do we see the entire country depicted inside the -12 C contour (GME at 12z for example) with the -14 C into Britain? And with the relatively early start mid-day Sunday on cold advection, a tightening pressure gradient from the slow approach of the low to south, this is not quite as brief a time window of opportunity for streamers as my thinking about four days back. There is a good 30-36 hour time window especially for Wicklow and Wexford -- and I have the feeling somebody in that region will hit the jackpot, you know who you are. I would say jackpot amount, 28 cm over/under. Up higher, maybe as much as 40-45 cm. Somebody post an animal jumping in a snowdrift video, ah loves em all.

arctictree

Slow drop in temps here. 4.8c now and bucketing rain. Funny, this is barely showing on the radar.

Duggys Housemate

It's ME vs MT.

The last forecast I saw from RTE was wintery showers. Not even snow.

weatherfiend

cowana wrote: »

4.3 degrees on my weather station in Glencullen,Dublin Mountains. Falling at 0.45 degrees per hour. Wind coming from the NNE.

Yep dropped here (base of 3 rock) in last 1.5 hours from 8 to 4.8. Rain still pouring down (prob waiting for the rugby to finish!!) and pea soup still outside but it feels much colder when hanging out the door for a smoke

ninebeanrows

Norfolk already: http://www.norfolklive.org/camera/bressingham.html

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There is a good 30-36 hour time window especially for Wicklow and Wexford -- and I have the feeling somebody in that region will hit the jackpot, you know who you are. I would say jackpot amount, 28 cm over/under.

I always said you were my favourite poster on here.

Deank

baraca wrote: »

I always said you were my favourite poster on here.

You two get a room FFS

H2UMrsRobinson

Ok -I give in. I've purchased a fast trak ticket. I'm waiting patiently at the front of the line, now let me climb aboard this frigging rollacoaster!

Deank

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Ok -I give in. I've purchased a fast trak ticket. I'm waiting patiently at the front of the line, now let me climb aboard this frigging rollacoaster!

Welcome aboard, the next 36 to 48 hours are going to be some ride, let's hope that there is no one left disappointed.

I hope everyone has stocked up on essential supplies.

• Coal (any fire fuel really)
• Beer (or whatever drink tickles your fancy)
• Milk and Bread (essentials in every Winter event)
• Beer (Oh I said that already)
• Cigarettes (for those of you stupid enough to smoke, as I do)

I think that's about all that is required in a white out

Cantona's Collars

Weathercheck wrote: »

Norfolk already: http://www.norfolklive.org/camera/bressingham.html

Lol at the caption "No people are waiting" on the bottom right,the whole lot of the posters in the weather forum are waiting:D

aboyro

i'm up the front waiting for the conductor to take me ticket

As ME would say "the evolution will not be televised""

:D:D:D:D:D

whitebriar

David rogers of M.e radio one at 5 to 6
Brief Dusting,no disruption.
Accumilating snow only on mountain tops.

The mind boggles.

Jordan5372

why is everyone acting like its some sort of ice age? as far as i can see its nothing a jacket wont stop ya going out in and a bit of driving skill for the possible snow fall. ? Am i missing something ?

John.Icy

For me, accumulations will depend on whether streamers develop. If proper streamers develop that is, and I mean actual streamers and not what most people call 'em. That means, fixed strip of snow, heavy in nature, continuous for hours, dry up the road etc. If this occurs, then it wouldn't even be ramping calling 20cm+, that would be reality of what actual streamers can do.

If we just get passing showers, not streamers, then a much more conservative forecast is more likely.