Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Oneiric 3

baraca wrote: »

I'd call bullshit on that chart tbh..

The same chart from the same model was thrown up and revered in wild abandon on here during the last 'event' when it showed a near nationwide whiteout (or pinkouts going by the colour scheme). Now it is dismissed which I think is most interesting.

TheMilkyPirate

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The same chart from the same model was thrown up and revered in wild abandon on here during the last 'event' when it showed a near nationwide whiteout (or pinkouts going by the colour scheme). Now it is dismissed which I think is most interesting.

Certainly wasn't thrown up and revered in wild abandon by me anyway. I don't pay any heed to those charts.

Do you think it's correct? Not even 2cm of snow on lugnaquilla?

heffoo

baraca wrote: »

Certainly wasn't thrown up and revered in wild abandon by me anyway. I don't pay any heed to those charts.

Do you think it's correct? Not even 2cm of snow on lugnaquilla?

Wel tbh i live around 3 miles from lug and i wouldnt find it strange to be white tipped in late may

lucernarian

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Meso-scale low spinning off the main low in Biscay, can easily be seen on satellite loop and heading for Kerry -- probably all rain at the moment, could be a sign of volatility to come as frontal zone presses south into outer circulation of this low.

I have no misgivings about the forecast after checking the latest guidance and obs, so bring it on and we'll see what's what. If this can't produce a streamer, then we'll have to fix the machine.

Just as well then, because it's already clear that there will be *a* streamer at some point in Ireland by Tuesday. But what about something that offers meaningful amounts sufficient to cause transport disruption, over an area greater than the area of Co. Louth? See I think it's likely there will be "streamers" and the models are already predicting this but if nowhere below 200 metres above sea level will see 10cm lying snow or more over this cold spell, is that a vindication of your recent predictions or a cause for concern or indeed worse? I appreciate there's probabilities involved but I also can imagine there's thresholds for various minima or maxima that you feel would verify your forecast.

TheMilkyPirate

heffoo wrote: »

Wel tbh i live around 3 miles from lug and i wouldnt find it strange to be white tipped in late may

I know I was being a bit pedantic there..!

ninebeanrows

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The same chart from the same model was thrown up and revered in wild abandon on here during the last 'event' when it showed a near nationwide whiteout (or pinkouts going by the colour scheme). Now it is dismissed which I think is most interesting.

The difference being, the forecast was for frontal snow and the track of the low changed.

We are looking at convective streamers which aren't easily forecast.

A major difference.

Conrach

Before I turn in....We have sleet and there are reports on my twitter feed of snow in Antrim.

Oneiric 3

baraca wrote: »

.

Do you think it's correct? Not even 2cm of snow on lugnaquilla?

Most likely, if not more though this would not be unusual for high ground. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

kingshankly

Lashing rain in the north east

Not

What I find strange is I drove up to Dublin from Kildare this evening, and I was driving through some fairly mouldy rain for a fair bit of the journey, and was thinking if that was falling as snow there would probably be quite a lot of it, certaintly near white out conditions in the wind. I look at the met eireann radar for this evening, and it hasn't picked up any of it

But the conditions remind me of a previous such time this winter when Dublin woke up to an unexpected carpet of snow. I also can't help noticing that met eireann, on their chart on their websites homepage, have a snow graphic over Dublin, for tonight.

Maybe temps wont fall enough tonight, but if they do we could be greeted by some ninja snow by the morning !

sea_monkey

its terribly windy here in galway, going to stay in another hour or so. see if it calms down.

Steopo

"here, im about to head out. is it going to snow or whats the craig?"

Sea_Monkey - depends where you're heading from, where you're heading to & when you're planning coming home.

If you're home for the Sunday fry you'll be grand. If you're not back till tomorrow night and heading up the East coast you might see a bit of the white stuff. And if you're planning an all weekend bender up the east coast there's a fair chance you'll see a few cm's or more along the way and u never know you might be stranded till Paddy's day. Anywhere else and it could be hit or miss depending on whether you're an optimist or not.

sea_monkey

Steopo wrote: »

"here, im about to head out. is it going to snow or whats the craig?"

Sea_Monkey - depends where you're heading from, where you're heading to & when you're planning coming home.

If you're home for the Sunday fry you'll be grand. If you're not back till tomorrow night and heading up the East coast you might see a bit of the white stuff. And if you're planning an all weekend bender up the east coast there's a fair chance you'll see a few cm's or more along the way and u never know you might be stranded till Paddy's day. Anywhere else and it could be hit or miss depending on whether you're an optimist or not.

im just going out for a few sociables in the cheapest nightclub i can find in galway.

it seems to be very fresh out at the moment, much too windy for my alcohol thinned blood.

this talk of sunday scares me. i will have a lovely 40minute walk home from work at midnight sunday. shall i bring my gloves?

Gonzo

3C here now and a large band of precipitation making it's way down from the north very slowly. Could well turn to sleet/wet snow during the night but this propably wont be till 3 or 4am maybe even later by time it gets here at current rate.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

3C here now and a large band of precipitation making it's way down from the north very slowly. Could well turn to sleet/wet snow during the night but this propably wont be till 3 or 4am maybe even later by time it gets here at current rate.

We waited up for a lot worse in the pre 2009 winters!

Geomy

Just checked the surf forcast on magicseaweed,Monday is going to be very cold in Lahinch
0-2 degrees during the day with an easterly but the following days are forcast to get warmer

fred funk }{

Folks, I'm looking for someone to put my mind at ease. I'm in my mid thirties and I don't ever remember snow sticking on the ground unless there was at least a few days of cold weather beforehand. It's been and is still relatively mild so it's very hard to believe we're going to be plastered in 24 hours.

MidMan25

Not wrote: »

What I find strange is I drove up to Dublin from Kildare this evening, and I was driving through some fairly mouldy rain for a fair bit of the journey, and was thinking if that was falling as snow there would probably be quite a lot of it, certaintly near white out conditions in the wind. I look at the met eireann radar for this evening, and it hasn't picked up any of it

But the conditions remind me of a previous such time this winter when Dublin woke up to an unexpected carpet of snow. I also can't help noticing that met eireann, on their chart on their websites homepage, have a snow graphic over Dublin, for tonight.

Maybe temps wont fall enough tonight, but if they do we could be greeted by some ninja snow by the morning !

The radar just shows the precipitation at that moment (updated every 15 mins)

There are bands of rain moving across the country so you were probably travelling along with it for most of your drive

Courtesy Flush

What are the chances of lying snow in Dublin city over the next few days do ye think ?

maquiladora

I think the most interesting thing from this cold snap won't be the snow flurries/showers but the very rare cold uppers for March. It will feel seriously bitter. I'm looking forward to taking a walk Monday morning in it!

Pangea

2C here, rain looks heavy on radar but just drizzle so far.

paddy ocon

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

What are the chances of lying snow in Dublin city over the next few days do ye think ?

high maybe have a quick read over the last few pages

Wicklow Weather

Folks off to bed with you all. We have a long day and night ahead of us tomorrow. Regardless of snowfall I am looking forward to the severe windchill readings over the coming 36 hours.

Rougies

21z UKMO high res doesn't give us much more insight than we already have.

On a side note I have some doubts about the credibility of this website's source of the UKMO high res data.

Wicklow Weather

I just saw a piece on CBS News about forecasters getting a snow event wrong in Denver. Snowstorm was expected but higher than expected temps too the sting out of the storm and it dropped 2 inches!

Rougies

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

I just saw a piece on CBS News about forecasters getting a snow event wrong in Denver. Snowstorm was expected but higher than expected temps too the sting out of the storm and it dropped 2 inches!

The same in Washinton D.C. recently, and of course the school closure here in 2010 that ended up melting all the snow with rain.

Courtesy Flush

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Folks off to bed with you all. We have a long day and night ahead of us tomorrow. Regardless of snowfall I am looking forward to the severe windchill readings over the coming 36 hours.

Im just looking for Snowfall

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

21z UKMO high res doesn't give us much more insight than we already have.

On a side note I have some doubts about the credibility of this website's source of the UKMO high res data.

Its the real deal. Its the UKMO's UK4 model. UKMO uses an even higher res model though that is not available to the public.

notnumber

fred funk }{ wrote: »

Folks, I'm looking for someone to put my mind at ease. I'm in my mid thirties and I don't ever remember snow sticking on the ground unless there was at least a few days of cold weather beforehand. It's been and is still relatively mild so it's very hard to believe we're going to be plastered in 24 hours.

A good frost between showers tomorrow night will certainly help but I know what your saying,once surfaces hit zero I doubt the previous states matter too much..the ground loses heat easily.

Not

MidMan25 wrote: »

The radar just shows the precipitation at that moment (updated every 15 mins)

There are bands of rain moving across the country so you were probably travelling along with it for most of your drive

No. The radar was showing static convective streamer rainfall across the country earlier this evening. It did not appear to show any rainfall in the north Kildare and south west Dublin areas between 20:30 and about 23:30, but it was raining, and more than drizzle when I drove through those areas.

Edit : it also appeared not to show current rain in south Dublin, but actually I've just noticed if you stick your nose right up to the screen there are a few almost invisible light blue pixels scattered around, so it is actually just about showing something. Have to remember to rub noses with the computer monitor while checking the radar from now on ! I still think though the rain is a bit more than the radar is showing, so could suggest the possibility of more snow than expected whenever/if the rain decides to turn to snow.