Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Gonzo

the band of rain/sleet up north seems to be dying out and has edged back north, not sure we'll get anything tonight. Will have to wait till tomorrow.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Its the real deal. Its the UKMO's UK4 model. UKMO uses an even higher res model though that is not available to the public.

That makes sense since I was comparing it to images such as this for the high res model. I also just learned today that the NAE is a UKMO based model too, so this makes me wonder what is the point/relevance of the UK4?

pueblo

Fascinating thread everyone, thanks.

Going back in the mists of time beyond the snow of 2010 just wondered if somebody could put a date on a fairly significant snow event back in the early 80's?

It must have been around 1982/83/84, I remember going on a school trek in the Dublin mountains that time and the drifts were phenomenal, and of course as a child the snow was all the way........ up to here ⬆

TheMilkyPirate

pueblo wrote: »

Fascinating thread everyone, thanks.

Going back in the mists of time beyond the snow of 2010 just wondered if somebody could put a date on a fairly significant snow event back in the early 80's?

It must have been around 1982/83/84, I remember going on a school trek in the Dublin mountains that time and the drifts were phenomenal, and of course as a child the snow was all the way........ up to here ⬆

Jan 82 I'd imagine.

Rougies

pueblo wrote: »

Fascinating thread everyone, thanks.

Going back in the mists of time beyond the snow of 2010 just wondered if somebody could put a date on a fairly significant snow event back in the early 80's?

It must have been around 1982/83/84, I remember going on a school trek in the Dublin mountains that time and the drifts were phenomenal, and of course as a child the snow was all the way........ up to here ⬆

Winter of 81/82 I'm sure you;re thinking of

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055437765
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afss7QL4wAc

Geomy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDv1ubaFA0E

Geomy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afss7QL4wAc

Geomy

Rougies wrote: »

Winter of 81/82 I'm sure you;re thinking of

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055437765
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afss7QL4wAc

You got there before me

pueblo

yeah 81/82...thanks folks

sea_monkey

it was grand lads, quit yer worryin.

dacogawa

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Meso-scale low spinning off the main low in Biscay, can easily be seen on satellite loop and heading for Kerry -- probably all rain at the moment, could be a sign of volatility to come as frontal zone presses south into outer circulation of this low.

I have no misgivings about the forecast after checking the latest guidance and obs, so bring it on and we'll see what's what. If this can't produce a streamer, then we'll have to fix the machine.

M.T. You've helped me with a lot of weather related issues over the last few years & I thank you for all of them (& you've always been right!), you're a person I look up to & do believe in (& what you're doing) & I'm sure many,many others do too. Thank you for the free service you give to all of us! I know you're working out you're own system & I'm very sure it will be integrated & help with all the forecasts in the future. I just think this needed to be said, we're very lucky to have you in this community. RESPEST!

Also.. I believe in streamers

Now I'm going to sleep until pm on Sunday & stay awake until late Monday! you're all going to do the same...

mountainy man

It's snowing here! not sure where its comming from as the radar blob crossing the north has broken up this end but there you are, not settling as yet seems too windy to. temp 0.4 dp. -1.5

BrianG23

Just leaving a comment to see updates...Hope college is called off Monday!

sparrowcar

METAR EIDW 100630Z 08021KT 9999 SCT012 BKN017 04/01 Q1006 NOSIG=
TAF LONG TAF EIDW 100500Z 1006/1106 06020KT 9999 SCT008 BKN015
TEMPO 1006/1009 4000 BR BKN004
BECMG 1006/1009 06020G32KT
BECMG 1009/1011 4000 -RASN BKN003
BECMG 1012/1014 9999 SCT008 BKN018
TEMPO 1011/1024 4000 -SHSN BKN006=

Ohhhh...snap

BrianG23

Sooo...odes than wall of Capitals and numbers mean something good? I guess it's snowing in Germany or something?

DOCARCH

I see that band of ppn over the north turned to snow at Aldergrove before clearing south. Light snow being reported at Glenanne (Co. Armagh) at 0600.

Redsunset

Steamer Alert

Redsunset

I've upgraded thread title as I've seen enough to warrant at least a Moderate Risk of heavy snow at times whilst temperatures plummet to give a shock to the system after the spring like weather we just had.

Jordan5372

Looks like its been raining last night. If there was snow
Now it wouldnt stick, would it?

ZX7R

Jordan5372 wrote: »

Looks like its been raining last night. If there was snow
Now it wouldn't stick, would it?

wet ground wont effect snow sticking don't worry

Simon Gruber Says

Was just outside near Dublin airport and the windchill is already bitter. Gusts are pretty stong too.

thomasm

What's a streamer ?

Pangea

Coating of snow on hills here ,encouraging.

dave1982

Hard to believe whats coming, but I do believe

Wine Goddess

Trying to make sense of what I am reading on here!

So we will have the low DPs, the low dam, the low temps, a pool of very cold air over us and the UK, a NNE wind - possibly gusting too strongly but hopefully enough to bring the streamers - and the core reason we might NOT get snow (feels faint at the thought but carries on bravely nonetheless) is what exactly?

a) the fact that wind might be too strong?
b) not enough ppn?
c) something else?

Could someone please help me understand, because despite all my lurking and reading over the past 2 years I don't quite get it!
Thanks in advance!

Wine Goddess

Looking at the snowdar site I can see lots of lovely white gold drifting across from the UK.....http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/?type=rain-snow-sleet


Here's hoping it'll turn into lovely STREAMERS for us later on.........



(Warning: you may get addicted to looking at and obsessively checking this site!)

M.T. Cranium

Hi, you may know me from such films as Phantom Ships of Meteociel and Return to the Isle of Woman ... at this point, would say the reason for no snow is more likely to be the reason for not much snow, and that would be basically the streamer(s) missed where you live.

Sweden and Denmark are seeing fairly extensive streamers now in the same air mass and wind flow that will be over the Irish Sea tonight and Monday.

I really think the main point now will be to nail down where streamers will set up and how strong they look to be ... which will be mostly nowcasting. The theoretical side would suggest two streamer bands, one a bit north of Dublin but moving further south across Dublin, and the second one a bit south of Dublin and eventually mostly over Wicklow and Wexford.

It would be surprising if every part of Leinster got snow, that might be asking a bit much but two thirds or so ... probably in the cards. We can look at all the guidance but really this is just a wait and see to get the exact details of where and when. Could start before sunrise Monday and if not, shortly afterwards.

Now I have to go for filming of my new movie, A Prog Too Far.

lucernarian

I'm not a big fan of the latest model output for the next 48 hours.

Whatever precipitation potential there was is now less obvious on the likes of GFS and NAE. While the models underestimated precipitation amounts during the 2010 streamers, they still showed much more than what the 00z and 06z NAE is showing. Back in 2010, they still predicted a centimetre or two over the course of a day. Far more than that fell, but looking at today's charts I see maybe 0.5 cm forecast along some parts of the east coast. I can't see the models getting it so substantially wrong if nothing else because I'm not sure all the factors are being taken into account here.

I think wind speeds will prove to be too strong and particularly so with vertical wind shear, which I think will ruin the development of any significant shower activity considering CAPE values are meagre. There will be snow, but firstly it may never be more than very light stuff for most of the country and secondly over the course of Monday there might be suprising penetration of these weak showers inland. So I suspect a broader area of very light snow is on the cards over the next 36 hours.

Also, I just checked DMI's radar, the streamers in the vicinity of Denmark are actually rather weak. Practically all the heavy precipitation in that region's coming from a trough over NE Germany and the Baltic Sea.

Pangea

Dont you just love it when M.T describes -2 as 'milder'..

The_Shotz

A little update from across the water folks, Im away in Chester for the weekend and it has been snowing for the past hour. Light enough but nice to see.