Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

maquiladora

Looking mostly dry in terms of streamer activity on the latest UK4 model.

9pm:


Midnight:


3am Monday:


6am Monday:

M.T. Cranium

Would expect the southern band of sleet and rain to turn increasingly to snow but with gradual dissipation overnight, however we may get some reports of accumulation in the 2-5 cm range with that.

Early forays of weak sea effect will come and go before midnight but expect the main action to begin after midnight and quite possibly well-developed streamer bands before sunrise bringing in moderate or even heavy snow to parts of Leinster. Some of these will get a good portion of the way across the country before dissipating (Athenry to Limerick to northeast Cork). Some bands may also hit the south coast especially first half of Monday when wind vectors around the Brittany low will be more conducive (080-110 deg good, then backing to 050 deg not so good for south coast).

Cold advection looks robust with temps as low as -2.5 C already at Leek and to -2 C at lower elevations of Yorkshire ... North Sea is cold which will help in general by not filling the boundary layer with too much stable stratocumulus.

The only question left, I feel, is whether this becomes explosive and heavy snow develops, or more subued with light to moderate amounts. I continue to lean towards the heavier solution, all factors look remarkably good considering the time of year. And that is actually in our favour too as convection could be more dramatic with the extra power of the March sun. Thundersnow and large hail in a few of these streamers would not surprise at all.

Strap in, we're heading into the great unknown of March streamer madness.

snowlover

Jordan5372 wrote: »

i heard its in cavan and Navan, anyone from there, could give us an update? still nothing here in Ashbourne.

Nothing in navan as yet.... Should I be panicking? 😥😥😥

Deank

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would expect the southern band of sleet and rain to turn increasingly to snow but with gradual dissipation overnight, however we may get some reports of accumulation in the 2-5 cm range with that.

Early forays of weak sea effect will come and go before midnight but expect the main action to begin after midnight and quite possibly well-developed streamer bands before sunrise bringing in moderate or even heavy snow to parts of Leinster. Some of these will get a good portion of the way across the country before dissipating (Athenry to Limerick to northeast Cork). Some bands may also hit the south coast especially first half of Monday when wind vectors around the Brittany low will be more conducive (080-110 deg good, then backing to 050 deg not so good for south coast).

Cold advection looks robust with temps as low as -2.5 C already at Leek and to -2 C at lower elevations of Yorkshire ... North Sea is cold which will help in general by not filling the boundary layer with too much stable stratocumulus.

The only question left, I feel, is whether this becomes explosive and heavy snow develops, or more subued with light to moderate amounts. I continue to lean towards the heavier solution, all factors look remarkably good considering the time of year. And that is actually in our favour too as convection could be more dramatic with the extra power of the March sun. Thundersnow and large hail in a few of these streamers would not surprise at all.

Strap in, we're heading into the great unknown of March streamer madness.

Super Ramp MT, one of the best yet...:D

kc66

Jordan5372 wrote: »

i heard its in cavan and Navan, anyone from there, could give us an update? still nothing here in Ashbourne.

I'm in Kells, half way between the 2. Nothing at the moment.

LoadofCROC

Is there a chance that it might just stay wet/windy and extremely cold tonite through till morning?? Just asking...

DIF

donjfarrell wrote: »

I'm in East Cork on high ground so I really don't snow until my after mother & mother-in-law leave my house after their Mother's Day Dinner! The thoughts of been snowed in with them both sounds like a scene from a nightmare.... so please snow... wait till they are both safely back home in Cork City ahahaaaa

OK The 'Mammies' are safely home.... Snow.... let the games begin!

Darwin

Deank wrote: »

Super Ramp MT, one of the best yet...:D

Ramptastic in fact

vickers209

Metro-alarm are going for an Orange warning for the east and south

valid from 10.03.2013 15:43 CET Until 11.03.2013 17:59 CET
Snow/Ice Awareness Level: Orange
"Snowfall with ice. Minimum temperatures zero to -4 degrees."



http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

dopolahpec

LoadofCROC wrote: »

Is there a chance that it might just stay wet/windy and extremely cold tonite through till morning?? Just asking...

Yes. Have a look at what Maq posted above. There's a definite chance many places will stay dry tonight.

stephenjmcd

Fingers crossed in the morning

Mr Cumulonimbus

Looking at the direction those echoes are travelling in on the rain today radar I fear the North Louth area may miss out on streamer generated snow unless the wind backs more easterly. Mournes and Cooley hills will block them.

Wine Goddess

Tallaght/Firhouse

Temp 1.8C

DP is a balmy -5C (Cue jaws type music)

Wind is really picking up here now although the NRA site only reporting 16km/h but max gusts are 27km/h

Bitterly bitterly cold - feels like a -2 with the wind chill (not mentioned AT ALL on Met E f/cast tonight BTW)

We are strapped in cap'n and ready to go to warp snow speed!

pad199207

Feeling arctic out there now with a howling wind!

Currently in Naas

2.5c
DP @-3.0c
Winds out of the East gusting to 50 KMH
RH @ 68%
1009.6mb rising slowly

sunbabe08

I keep hearing 3-8 cm of snow to hit cork city. Is it true?

Deank

Yellow (sleet) blobs in the Irish Sea now turning Orange (Snow) and increasing in size, I'd be surprised if Dublin doesn't see some white gold in the next hour.

Trotter

Odd.. DP has dropped off quickly here 7miles from the Tramore coast.. but the temp is a half degree warmer in the last hour?!

snowstorm445

sunbabe08 wrote: »

I keep hearing 3-8 cm of snow to hit cork city. Is it true?

3-8 of snow across the entire country. In Cork's case, presuming the temps drop far enough and the front stays around long enough, I would say more like 4 cm at best, maybe 5.

Cogsy88

sunbabe08 wrote: »

I keep hearing 3-8 cm of snow to hit cork city. Is it true?

Well the temp at cork airport is down to 1 degree and the rain has turned to moderate/heavy sleet according to met.ie. Ya never no it mite happen.

dopolahpec

Why are we so confident streamers are going to spring into life after midnight? What's the trigger?

Thinking back to December 2010 I remember the most potent activity was usually in the morning after sunrise and the late afternoon. Was the diurnal temperature change a trigger?

On a side note. There's going to be disappointing gaps between the streamers. I remember as a child a similar night giving 4-5 inches in Kells and hardly a flake in Navan.

The wind us strong tonight. Even a big shower will pass quickly so you will be hoping for a good frequency of showers to get any notable accumulation.

Hopefully we will see decent snowfall anyway but maybe be prepared for a non event too

matt-dublin

I don't think the snow will hit Greystones until about 2am

Plenty of wind and alarms going off here

snowstorm445

Deank wrote: »

Yellow (sleet) blobs in the Irish Sea now turning Orange (Snow) and increasing in size, I'd be surprised if Dublin doesn't see some white gold in the next hour.

Which site radar can you use to determine precipitation type?

aurora 527

Trotter wrote: »

Odd.. DP has dropped off quickly here 7miles from the Tramore coast.. but the temp is a half degree warmer in the last hour?!

Yes i noticed that too temp 3.1c DP -0.4c, DP dropped 1.4c very quickly

mothel

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking mostly dry in terms of streamer activity on the latest UK4 model.

9pm:


Midnight:


3am Monday:


6am Monday:

I take it you're not an east coaster!

Deank

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Which site radar can you use to determine precipitation type?

Blue = Rain
Yellow = Sleet
Orange = Snow
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0&type=rain-snow-sleet

John.Icy

dopolahpec wrote: »

Why are we so confident streamers are going to spring into life after midnight? What's the trigger?

Thinking back to December 2010 I remember the most potent activity was usually in the morning after sunrise and the late afternoon. Was the diurnal temperature change a trigger?

On a side note. There's going to be disappointing gaps between the streamers. I remember as a child a similar night giving 4-5 inches in Kells and hardly a flake in Navan.

The wind us strong tonight. Even a big shower will pass quickly so you will be hoping for a good frequency of showers to get any notable accumulation.

Hopefully we will see decent snowfall anyway but maybe be prepared for a non event too

People should focus on posts like this aswell, and not just ramping by MT.

High chance of super disappointment if people don't consider the possibility that they might see nothing at all.

Reckless Abandonment

dopolahpec wrote: »

Why are we so confident streamers are going to spring into life after midnight? What's the trigger?

Thinking back to December 2010 I remember the most potent activity was usually in the morning after sunrise and the late afternoon. Was the diurnal temperature change a trigger?

On a side note. There's going to be disappointing gaps between the streamers. I remember as a child a similar night giving 4-5 inches in Kells and hardly a flake in Navan.

The wind us strong tonight. Even a big shower will pass quickly so you will be hoping for a good frequency of showers to get any notable accumulation.

Hopefully we will see decent snowfall anyway but maybe be prepared for a non event too

Yeah that wind could do with easing off a bit... it could be the spanner in the works of this whole "event" ...

snowstorm445

Deank wrote: »

Blue = Rain
Yellow = Sleet
Orange = Snow
http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0&type=rain-snow-sleet

Cheers!

MidMan25

Look at those streamers all along the east coast of the uk!

Fingers crossed for later in the night

JanuarySnowstor

Wet snow here for last 2 hours but it's refusing to stick. (500 ft above sea level)
Am surprised at this stage as we are now under -6 uppers (at least that's was predicted)
We have about another 2 hours of ppn so hopefully another drop in temp will swing the balance