The Golf Tips Thread

abarkie

Hi

This weeks selections:

Open de France - Pablo Larrazabal 66/1 & Thongchai Jaidee 60/1

WGC Bridgestone Invitational - Rickie Fowler 28/1 & Danny Lee 66/1

Barracuda Championship - Gary Woodland 12/1 & Robert Garrigus 25/1

Each Way Doubles & Trebles

Good luck all

galwaylad14

WGC Bridgestone: Grace, Koepka and Dustin Johnson

4068ac1elhodqr

Can't go too far wrong with a couple of steady favourites on power's extra places:

Scottish Open Thur 7 July: Stenson, Henrik E/Way 1/5 places 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Open Championship Thur 14 July: Johnson, Dustin @9, E/Way 1/5 places 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

Also, Alex Noren @56, Marc Leishman @81 as value wildcards.

the groutch

extra places, but 1/5 the odds.

I'd sooner stick with less places, and keep my 1/4 the odds

4068ac1elhodqr

For the open anyway everyone (except Boyles 6pl) is (currently) only paying '5places' 1/4.

Happy enough with another 3 places at slightly lower odds for a few random wildcards on an accumulator. May even work out the same (or better) if taken at peak prices, circa 20+% above the norm.

jjll

Have to be out late and early in Scottish open so grace for me no wind late thurs early fri

mailburner

jjll wrote: »

Have to be out late and early in Scottish open so grace for me no wind late thurs early fri

good advice and now only 6/1

abarkie

abarkie wrote: »

Hi

This weeks selections:

Open de France - Pablo Larrazabal 66/1 & Thongchai Jaidee 60/1

WGC Bridgestone Invitational - Rickie Fowler 28/1 & Danny Lee 66/1

Barracuda Championship - Gary Woodland 12/1 & Robert Garrigus 25/1

Each Way Doubles & Trebles

Good luck all

Winner - Jaidee & Placed - Woodland

Crossbar again

Going to sit this week at look for clues for the Open

galwaylad14

abarkie wrote: »

Winner - Jaidee & Placed - Woodland

Crossbar again

Going to sit this week at look for clues for the Open

I'm doing the same, but I think to be honest it's a case of eye up guys in good form the past few weeks (particularly this week on a links), look at the statistics for what it is that Open champions generally do well and then have a look at guys that generally do well at the Open. And once you've all that done, just pick Dustin Johnson.

I've been on him for his last two wins and there's no way I'm leaving him now, the guy is playing outrageous golf at the moment and he has to be full of confidence that he can win again. I'm very surprised he's not going in as favourite to be honest. 9/1 with Powers. Probably go with Grace aswell, he's playing well at the moment and going well on the Links over at the Scottish Open this week. 25/1

jjll

mailburner wrote: »

good advice and now only 6/1

Hardly any wind this morning now its picking up cant see anyone getting to danny lee this afternoon

jjll

jjll wrote: »

Hardly any wind this morning now its picking up cant see anyone getting to danny lee this afternoon

At least we in contention over weekend

mailburner

bet365 a standout 15/2 on noren

at least two points bigger than the next best so took that for value

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open/winner

abarkie

galwaylad14 wrote: »

I'm doing the same, but I think to be honest it's a case of eye up guys in good form the past few weeks (particularly this week on a links), look at the statistics for what it is that Open champions generally do well and then have a look at guys that generally do well at the Open. And once you've all that done, just pick Dustin Johnson.

I've been on him for his last two wins and there's no way I'm leaving him now, the guy is playing outrageous golf at the moment and he has to be full of confidence that he can win again. I'm very surprised he's not going in as favourite to be honest. 9/1 with Powers. Probably go with Grace aswell, he's playing well at the moment and going well on the Links over at the Scottish Open this week. 25/1

What are the features of Troon?

Accuracy or Power course?

Exposed or not?

Better get looking I suppose - Found this via betfair thread and Catch me of you can

THE Spreadsheet you've all been waiting for...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q-c0Ea6oq1g0LpBWRCdvdr70F5212_RZuxOXHc4eRDI/pubhtml

Don't think I can be having Johnson - Playing well on those lovely sunny courses in the USA - is he going to get the same in Scotland?

abarkie

mailburner wrote: »

bet365 a standout 15/2 on noren

at least two points bigger than the next best so took that for value

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open/winner

Didn't last long - 6/1 at 18.48

4068ac1elhodqr

abarkie wrote: »

Didn't last long - 6/1 at 18.48

This stuck out earlier in the week (4th Jul 10pm), simply as a value wildcard option. Showed @56, with 7places (1/5), BP & most places is never a bad combination.


Plenty of bad weather on the way, so R2 leader still no guarantee

mailburner

abarkie wrote: »

Didn't last long - 6/1 at 18.48

he was 14s after making his first birdie today so was kicking myself for not taking it and 22s right after his first round
just a lad I follow from time to time with little success bar one tourney where he had it won after three rounds

redzerdrog

abarkie wrote: »

What are the features of Troon?

Accuracy or Power course?

Exposed or not?

Better get looking I suppose - Found this via betfair thread and Catch me of you can

THE Spreadsheet you've all been waiting for...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q-c0Ea6oq1g0LpBWRCdvdr70F5212_RZuxOXHc4eRDI/pubhtml

Don't think I can be having Johnson - Playing well on those lovely sunny courses in the USA - is he going to get the same in Scotland?

Dustin is a fantastic wind player

PopePalpatine

abarkie wrote: »

What are the features of Troon?

Accuracy or Power course?

Exposed or not?

Better get looking I suppose - Found this via betfair thread and Catch me of you can

THE Spreadsheet you've all been waiting for...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q-c0Ea6oq1g0LpBWRCdvdr70F5212_RZuxOXHc4eRDI/pubhtml

Don't think I can be having Johnson - Playing well on those lovely sunny courses in the USA - is he going to get the same in Scotland?

Where's this Betfair thread you're talking about? I'm assuming the "Rank" value in the first column corresponds to each player's value for money, right?

abarkie

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Where's this Betfair thread you're talking about? I'm assuming the "Rank" value in the first column corresponds to each player's value for money, right?

http://community.betfair.com/golf/go/thread/view/94086/30627601/the-open-championship-2016-royal-troon

jjll

Oh well had run for money out of it now

abarkie

mailburner wrote: »

bet365 a standout 15/2 on noren

at least two points bigger than the next best so took that for value

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open/winner

Well done for highlighting him at this time - seems a streak player

Anyway, early thoughts for next week are :

McDowell , Stenson & Mickelson

When you look at Stenson & Mickleson, both lost about 5 or 6 shots on the first round

Lets hope they don't repeat that!

abarkie

redzerdrog wrote: »

Dustin is a fantastic wind player

I will checking the weather forecast, but I will be looking for a price for him to miss the cut

Think he will suffering mental let down after his 2 wins

4068ac1elhodqr

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

Can't go too far wrong with a couple of steady favourites on power's extra places:

Scottish Open Thur 7 July: Stenson, Henrik E/Way 1/5 places 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Open Championship Thur 14 July: Johnson, Dustin @9, E/Way 1/5 places 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

Also, Alex Noren @56, Marc Leishman @81 as value wildcards.

No need for all those extra places anyway!



Sticking with an array of e/w value wildcards for the Open e.g.:

M.Leishman (still @81) 8pl
L.Donald @126 8pl
C.Knost @251 8pl
maybe C.Montgomerie if he gets back out to @301 territory 8pl

abarkie

Noren tipped at 66/1 apparently

http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/live/1576/66-1-tip-noren-wins-scottish-open/report

PopePalpatine

I got him @80/1 with PP.

Loafing Oaf

abarkie wrote: »

McDowell , Stenson & Mickelson

When you look at Stenson & Mickleson, both lost about 5 or 6 shots on the first round

I've bet a few times on Stenson for major, usually top European or whatever, and he's never had a sniff. Reckon he's one of these guys who'll never do it for whatever reason.

More broadly I've probably bet €500+ on golf over the years and don't think I have ever come close to winning. What are you guys' strike rates like? Is there a market or approach that can maximise your chances?

abarkie

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

More broadly I've probably bet €500+ on golf over the years and don't think I have ever come close to winning. What are you guys' strike rates like? Is there a market or approach that can maximise your chances?

The thread is there for all to see - think a reasonable return for most

For me, as a general rule, its a sport where you can still get reasonably good odds / value on a player you fancy to win

I find players are either :

Fond of places and play well there or are form players who play well irrespective of course

Why don't you follow a few and enjoy the fun?:)

Loafing Oaf

abarkie wrote: »

The thread is there for all to see - think a reasonable return for most

For me, as a general rule, its a sport where you can still get reasonably good odds / value on a player you fancy to win

I find players are either :

Fond of places and play well there or are form players who play well irrespective of course

Why don't you follow a few and enjoy the fun?:)

Thanks for the feedback

I've made a whole stack of medium odds specialist market bets listed in the Open thread, largely based on Oddschecker/Betting Directory tips. None of them setting the world on fire so far...

rollerdisco

keegan bradley is 151 on betway ??

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I've bet a few times on Stenson for major, usually top European or whatever, and he's never had a sniff. Reckon he's one of these guys who'll never do it for whatever reason.

It's like what Father Ted tells Mrs Doyle regarding Father Jessup the sarcastic priest. Whatever I say about golf betting, you guys do the exact opposite and you'll be minted.:rolleyes: