The Golf Tips Thread

Kirk Van Houten

redzerdrog wrote: »

Fancy McIlroy and Noren to both convert from here.

2pt win double @a little under 13/2

Only player to convert a 54 hole lead into a win at Torrey Pines in last 10 years is Tiger (2008 and 2013).

redzerdrog

Kirk Van Houten wrote: »

Only player to convert a 54 hole lead into a win at Torrey Pines in last 10 years is Tiger (2008 and 2013).

I think Noren is a class act and particularly when in contention. I think It will take one of the 8 unders to go very low to win it so happy enough to take him with a 3 shot head start on them. Don't think Palmer is that strong and Holmes coming off the back of a 7under round we see it so often that players struggle to follow that up.

3/1+ is a fair price on Noren I think

redzerdrog

Saying that I hope the first leg of the double loses to Levy ;-)

PopePalpatine

So...who else here got screwed by that 13-way tie in Dubai? Didn't even get my stake back on Stenson.

4068ac1elhodqr

PopePalpatine wrote: »

So...who else here got screwed by that 13-way tie in Dubai? Didn't even get my stake back on Stenson.

Nasty aul 13-way traffic jam for sure. Think Powers may place (7) him (near evens) as status of that line hasn't been updated on the betslip (as of yet).



Was hoping HP@126 might also have squeezed in. Only backed Tong on a couple of lines selections R4 @3.4, as Rory was too short (from the getgo really).

Farmers is still looking very good, but looking for plan B options, and there is a few with good +25% pricing (3pl 1/4). It may well turn out to be another jam at the top, full of -13 scores.

redzerdrog

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

Nasty aul 13-way traffic jam for sure. Think Powers may place (7) him (near evens) as status of that line hasn't been updated on the betslip (as of yet).



Was hoping HP@126 might also have squeezed in. Only backed Tong on a couple of lines selections R4 @3.4, as Rory was too short (from the getgo really).

Farmers is still looking very good, but looking for plan B options, and there is a few with good +25% pricing (3pl 1/4). It may well turn out to be another jam at the top, full of -13 scores.

Are you pulling a zimmer with the winner there? Its hard to decipher but can't see where you said you were backing him.

Also porteous definitely won't be placed 7th for betting purposes he finished 19th

4068ac1elhodqr

redzerdrog wrote: »

Are you pulling a zimmer with the winner there? Its hard to decipher but can't see where you said you were backing him.

Correct, never said was backing, as was only a short line option @3.4 (was into R4). Rory from memory was 1.91 for the last two rounds, and that's hard to get excited about.

redzerdrog wrote: »

Also porteous definitely won't be placed 7th for betting purposes he finished 19th

Correct again, and never said or indicated that he would. Just a pick from couple pages back. J-7 of course isn't the same as 7th. The query was with Stenson, who's result status still hasn't been updated on pp.

Poor Zimmer, he gets a hard time, from all the folks up on their high-horses. Would actually prefer his horse picks over the e.g. the sacred Del boy/roy chap who is still just break-even.

4068ac1elhodqr

About x12 still in contention with 3pl 1/4 still available, anyone could win about 1/2 way into R4 (12noon) over in San Diego.

One big surprise in that Rahm has gone +4 an is only on 8th

Best numbers currently are probably Bradley@51ew, Kim@26ew.
If other value appears, best to pick before the 3pl vanishes.

redzerdrog

Break even > massive loser

4068ac1elhodqr

Break even - (time x effort) < 0

gooseygander

PopePalpatine wrote: »

So...who else here got screwed by that 13-way tie in Dubai? Didn't even get my stake back on Stenson.

Had Richie Ramsey at 150/1 each way, thought I was in for a decent payout but got back pittance of only less than 4 to 1 on the each way portion of the bet. Had been told he finished 6th and did not know there was a log jam of players. RAGE

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Plenty of short priced fancied players in the Farmers Open.
However an interesting fact is that four of the 1st 5 in the betting missed the cut twice! in the last 3 years.

I am backing Charles Howell at 11/8 to finish in the top 20.

Over in Dubai the in-form Chris Paisley is my bet at 5/2 to finish in the top 20 and a bigger bet at 10/11 to finish in the top 40.

It may not be the most exciting form of betting,but so far it is proitable (3 out of 3 this week to follow 2 out of 2 last week).At 1 point level stakes this week the bets produced just over 4 3/4 points profit and the profit was bigger because of the larger bet on Paisley at 10/11 to finish in the top 40.

I will be sticking with this type bet and selection method for a while.

redzerdrog

redzerdrog wrote: »

Dubai desert classic
Alexander levy 1pt e/w @66/1
Nich Colsaerts 1pt e/w @150/1

Farmers
Johnny Vegas 1pt e/w @60/1
Charles Hoffman 1pt e/w @66/1

0.25pt e/w cross doubles

Also got a free bet so done

0.5 pts e/w double rose/Hatton

Full place payout on Levy at a tasty price. Unfortunately Hoffman had a poor final round and couldnt nick the place double.

Hatton also placed and would have fancied Rose to grad a place yesterday but he struggled to get going.

Still a profitable weekend which is welcomed after a couple of bad weeks

redzerdrog

Weeks Outlay: 13pts
Returns: 17.5pts
Weeks balance: +4.5pts
Previous balance: + 50pts

Running Balance: +54.5pts

danganabu

zimmermania wrote: »

It may not be the most exciting form of betting,but so far it is proitable (3 out of 3 this week to follow 2 out of 2 last week).At 1 point level stakes this week the bets produced just over 4 3/4 points profit and the profit was bigger because of the larger bet on Paisley at 10/11 to finish in the top 40.

I will be sticking with this type bet and selection method for a while.

No no your all wrong Zimmer them markets are simply easy child like bets

4068ac1elhodqr

You fellas did alright on the top 20, again it's not a bad market, just doesn't have bear any interest for me personally, unless as a line selection on multiple.

But here's a good question, would others such as danga.. not have preferred to have backed two (of four) of his rare suggestions that managed a very good R4 to place, as outrights (not top20/40).
Doing so would have been 'x6.5 better' if backed using that method. And even tried further multiplication with one of the safer short favourites from over in the Omega as a double.

e.g.
C Howell Top 20 @ 2/1, but as an Outright BP-SP@46 (Pl RTN 11.5/2pp) (=x5.75)
S Lowry Top 20 @ 3/1, [x]
B Snedeker Top 20 @ 2/1 [x]
J B Holmes Top 30 @ 9/5. but as an Outright BP-SP@81 (Pl RTN 20.25/2pp) = (=x10.125)

100ea line would have rtn'd (net) profit of 1,187.5 (via best prices e/w markets pre-tournament) just for two placing.
100ea line for this top20/40 would have rtn'd (net) profit (x6.5 times less) at just 180.

danganabu

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

You fellas did alright on the top 20, again it's not a bad market, just doesn't have bear any interest for me personally, unless as a line selection on multiple.

But here's a good question, would others such as danga.. not have preferred to have backed two (of four) of his rare suggestions that managed a very good R4 to place, as outrights (not top20/40).
Doing so would have been 'x6.5 better' if backed using that method. And even tried further multiplication with one of the safer short favourites from over in the Omega as a double.

e.g.
C Howell Top 20 @ 2/1, but as an Outright BP-SP@46 (Pl RTN 11.5/2pp) (=x5.75)
S Lowry Top 20 @ 3/1, [x]
B Snedeker Top 20 @ 2/1 [x]
J B Holmes Top 30 @ 9/5. but as an Outright BP-SP@81 (Pl RTN 20.25/2pp) = (=x10.125)

100ea line would have rtn'd (net) profit of 1,187.5 (via best prices e/w markets pre-tournament) just for two placing.
100ea line for this top20/40 would have rtn'd (net) profit (x6.5 times less) at just 180.

Simple answer is variance, a sample size of 4 bets is fine but over the course of a season I'm far more confident, and my records prove, that the greater ROI is gotten from these markets, there are far more ricks in these markets as well as they are relatively new.

zimmermania

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

You fellas did alright on the top 20, again it's not a bad market, just doesn't have bear any interest for me personally, unless as a line selection on multiple.

But here's a good question, would others such as danga.. not have preferred to have backed two (of four) of his rare suggestions that managed a very good R4 to place, as outrights (not top20/40).
Doing so would have been 'x6.5 better' if backed using that method. And even tried further multiplication with one of the safer short favourites from over in the Omega as a double.

e.g.
C Howell Top 20 @ 2/1, but as an Outright BP-SP@46 (Pl RTN 11.5/2pp) (=x5.75)
S Lowry Top 20 @ 3/1, [x]
B Snedeker Top 20 @ 2/1 [x]
J B Holmes Top 30 @ 9/5. but as an Outright BP-SP@81 (Pl RTN 20.25/2pp) = (=x10.125)

100ea line would have rtn'd (net) profit of 1,187.5 (via best prices e/w markets pre-tournament) just for two placing.
100ea line for this top20/40 would have rtn'd (net) profit (x6.5 times less) at just 180.

We dont want to be getting too excited about any methods of punting,we all have our own ideas.

I fancied having a go at the top 20,top,30 or 40 markets 2 weeks ago and desipte a bit of luck in getting my 5 selections correct i do not for a moment believe it is anything more than a bit of luck.

However,the method of arriving at the the selections is what interests me and i will be taking the same approach in the coming weeks in the hope that the method produces some consistency and returns a modest but regular return.

redzerdrog

danganabu wrote: »

Simple answer is variance, a sample size of 4 bets is fine but over the course of a season I'm far more confident, and my records prove, that the greater ROI is gotten from these markets, there are far more ricks in these markets as well as they are relatively new.

I would have assumed the variance is less with this system however the ROI would also been far less

Its interesting and something I have been thinking about but feel the thought process is different than when backing outright. Take the recent bet on Charles Howell iii he proved to be a good bet at 2/1 however someone backing outright would be mad to pick him outright as you are pretty much giving up the win part of the stake thus making the place part less value.

As said it is an interesting way and I might try it out if I hit a particular bad patch throughout the season

mickmackmcgoo

redzerdrog wrote:

Its interesting and something I have been thinking about but feel the thought process is different than when backing outright. Take the recent bet on Charles Howell iii he proved to be a good bet at 2/1 however someone backing outright would be mad to pick him outright as you are pretty much giving up the win part of the stake thus making the place part less value.

I made a few bob off Cabrera Bello top 20 at the weekend at 11/8 . Great record on that course so he was an easy pic for me . The problem is if you pick one or 2 each week for top 20 or 30 and have a good run then it's difficult to get a good stake on as online bookmakers will close you down. They will take your 20 quid on a 50 to 1 to win outright in a tournament but try get 400 on a 6/4 to be in the top 40 !

redzerdrog

Waste Management
Rickie Fowler 2pt win @14/1
Emiliano Grillo 1pt e/w @110/1

Maybank
Richie Ramsey 1pt e/w @66/1
David Horsey 1pt e/w @80/1
Panuphol Pittayarat 0.5pt e/w 300/1

Multiples
0.25pt e/w doubles Pittayarat into fowler/Grillo
0.25pt e/w doubles Grillo into ramsey/horsey
0.5pt win doubles Fowler into ramsey/horsey

Total outlay :12pts

mickmackmcgoo

Malaysian open -Andrew Dodt top 20 at 5/1
Waste Management-James Hahn top 40 at 15/8

zimmermania

Chris Paisley has not played the course in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia and that would normally mean that i would not back him in any of the markets. However,he is playing so well i will make an exception and back him to be in the top 20 at 15/8.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Chris Paisley has not played the course in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia and that would normally mean that i would not back him in any of the markets. However,he is playing so well i will make an exception and back him to be in the top 20 at 15/8.

Backed D Lipsky at 2/1 top 20 in Malaysia has a bit of form there.

Bigger bets in top 40 market in the Phoenix Open.
Zak Johnson 5/6
P Mickelson 10/11
B H An 6/5.

4068ac1elhodqr

Win only: Fowler@15, and might add Stenson@8.5 in the other Malaysia event (to other AvB events) as win only accas.

The majority are generally e/w arrays, usually cross-checked for the optimal best vendor prices.
Also usually merged with mixed extra place/price enhancements or risk eliminations (double chances) of one sort or another.
This may also evolve, into R2 starts and onwards, and the usual daily enhancements appear.

One small double I really like is a 60,000/1 R1L double, with a couple of overpriced lads avg 250/1 ea.
Sorry had to leave them blank in case any of you lurkers are cursed, feel free to guess though!.
Powers prices for R1L are dismal, about 50% less than some others.

Would like to see a top10 (R1 only) market, but unlikely to be available anywhere as double across the two events (just for 1st round).

Rough sample group, as always accas are low stakes, offering high yield opportunities:

abarkie

Back again with e/w doubles:

Maybank Championship 2018 - Bernd Wiesberger 16/1 & Dylan Frittelli 18/1

Waste Management Open 2018 - Phil Mickelson 45/1 & Matt Kuchar 40/1

Good luck everyone

4068ac1elhodqr

abarkie wrote: »

...Waste Management Open 2018 ...Matt Kuchar 40/1

Have this @51, (as one of the safer or less ambitious than others at 250-300/1) but only for the 'R1Leader' market.
Just noticed Spoils have this category as 6pl, unusual as just 5 everywhere else. Think he opened on a 64 last time.

4068ac1elhodqr

zimmermania wrote: »

Chris Paisley has not played the course in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia and that would normally mean that i would not back him in any of the markets. However,he is playing so well i will make an exception and back him to be in the top 20 at 15/8.

A good pick indeed so far, current R1L (-7) in Malaysia.

Didn't back Paisley (my triple-digit R1L only managed -3, J5/T26). It's jammed at the top so unlikely to see place (even with 5/6pl), unless it's some sort of dead heat watered down amount.

Any regrets on not going for Outright? Opening price for CP was @34 6pl, with perhaps some refund offers about if 2nd/3rd. The avg. now is just @7.5, and 4pl.

zimmermania

Sincere Howling Reformer wrote: »

A good pick indeed so far, current R1L (-7) in Malaysia.

Didn't back Paisley (my triple-digit R1L only managed -3, J5/T26). It's jammed at the top so unlikely to see place (even with 5/6pl), unless it's some sort of dead heat watered down amount.

Any regrets on not going for Outright? Opening price for CP was @34 6pl, with perhaps some refund offers about if 2nd/3rd. The avg. now is just @7.5, and 4pl.

No regrets,as i posted about 3 weeks ago i was going to give this type of bet a try.

If i am any way successful in my selection methods it offers the chance to win lesser amounts more often and gradually increase stakes.I would love to be picking winners (got an ew double up last year posted here) but it is very difficult and i do not like taking short prices.

60% winning bets would show a very good profit and that is the minimum i would be seeking to achieve.

redzerdrog

Anyone else not able to see the last couple of posts?

Seems to happen me a lot when it gets the end of a page

Edit: Can see them now so it must be when starting a new page I can't view the first 2 posts until the 3rd post is posted. Weird