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The Golf Tips Thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭HankSchrader


    Are PP paying 8 places in shops or is it just an online offer?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    7 in b&m shops

    2pts Spieth @ 10/1
    1pt e/w Oosthuizen @ 50/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,561 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    SO'Meara top senior

    WTF, he was -1, joint second a minute ago?:mad: I was lining up a smug post about how I should have backed him outright...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    WTF, he was -1, joint second a minute ago?:mad: I was lining up a smug post about how I should have backed him outright...

    +5 for his last three holes :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,561 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    danganabu wrote: »
    +5 for his last three holes :eek:

    Must be having a 'senior moment'.:rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 616 ✭✭✭iluvfatfrogs


    Was a serious amount of lover for Chappell & Barnrat (incl myself) but both having horrendous afternoons


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Was a serious amount of lover for Chappell & Barnrat (incl myself) but both having horrendous afternoons

    Totall topsy turvy so far, JDay is having one of the worst starts of all +4 on 8th. Chappell could be an early right off +6.

    On the other hand wilcards Fred/Langer/Kodaira/Singh all on par with decent chance of placing the 1stR (8pl).

    Henrick & Reed could do well -2 on 8th, but only 3pl now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,704 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    I kept it simple for the Masters,Chappell- first round leader 8 places,Chappel winner outright 8 places-Chappell to finish in the top 40 and Chappell to make the cut.

    I may back someone tomorrow but will probably hold fire until after round 1.

    As Chappell looks goosed i put a score on Speith at 10s to maintain a financial interest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,561 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Small bets on Chappel top 5, O'Meara top senior

    Keeping each other company five and four places from the bottom of the leaderboard respectively.:rolleyes: Can I install something on my bet365 account to stop me betting on golf?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    diomed wrote: »
    US Masters outright

    Marc Leishman .... 67.50 ... €20.00 ... €1,330.00
    Patrick Cantlay ...152.57 ... €26.92 ... €4,080.28
    Zach Johnson ... 230.00 ... €10.00 ... €2,290.00
    Kyle Stanley ...... 510.00 ... €20.00 ...€10,180.00
    Patton Kizzire ... 450.00 ... €83.00 ... €37,267.00
    Haotong Li ....... 406.93 ... €200.13 ... €81,238.77

    Total €360.05
    Update
    Bet
    Haotong Li ... 479.93 ... €395.47 ... €189,403.93

    Lay
    Haotong Li ... 230.00 ... €386.00 ... €88,394.00

    In plain language I bet on Li at 479/1, sold the bet at 230/1, and have a free bet of €395 at 249/1
    I also cashed out on Marc Leishman and Zach Johnson, but have I think a 100% loss on the others.
    Still losing overall, but could take a profit of €1,600 on Li Haoting if I want.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    diomed wrote: »
    Update
    Bet
    Haotong Li ... 479.93 ... €395.47 ... €189,403.93

    Lay
    Haotong Li ... 230.00 ... €386.00 ... €88,394.00

    In plain language I bet on Li at 479/1, sold the bet at 230/1, and have a free bet of €395 at 249/1
    I also cashed out on Marc Leishman and Zach Johnson, but have I think a 100% loss on the others.
    Still losing overall, but could take a profit of €1,600 on Li Haoting if I want.

    42/1 now - someone who laid the original bet having a cold sweat!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    abarkie wrote: »
    42/1 now - someone who laid the original bet having a cold sweat!
    My highest was €80 at 550


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    abarkie wrote: »
    42/1 now - someone who laid the original bet having a cold sweat!

    Was going to say he has a chance at R1L but bogey a minute or two ago. Still nice early O/R cash-out, for above poster.

    YRL7Dfz.png

    Think have Kodaira as line selection in R1L 8pl 200/1 but will likely get watered down in heat, if anything it all. Singh and Fred too triple digits also, but Fred much to do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,669 ✭✭✭sheroman01


    I stuck a fiver on the below:

    Jordan Spieth To Birdie All 4 Par 5s in Same Round @ 9/1

    He eagled the second - Wonder will this still come in? (If he birdies the others too)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Li Haotong second shot on par 5 15th to 6 feet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Li Haotong leads the US Masters by a shot on -4.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    That's R1 over, not sure how 8pl is going to work out.
    Speith is down to round about evens to win @2.5 or so.

    m8hy67U.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,750 ✭✭✭redzerdrog


    5/7ths of the full place money for all those tied 4th


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    redzerdrog wrote: »
    5/7ths of the full place money for all those tied 4th

    Probably in this instance, not a great advantage having PP's 8pl compared to Hills or Lads 5pl for 1RL.

    Depending on the stack at end of R4, Sky's 10pl may not be advantageous but still good to have in-case of single sequential results.

    2.38 is currently being offered to back Spieth, probably not the best time nor value to do this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Probably in this instance, not a great advantage having PP's 8pl compared to Hills or Lads 5pl for 1RL.

    Depending on the stack at end of R4, Sky's 10pl may not be advantageous but still good to have in-case of single sequential results.

    2.38 is currently being offered to back Spieth, probably not the best time nor value to do this.

    It is a huge advantage having 8pl, if it was only 5pl you would only be getting 2/7ths as opposed to 5/7ths

    More places is always an advantage unless it falls on exactly the lower line with a greater number tied on the higher line.

    Spieth is freely available at far greater than 2.38, he is 2/1 in most books and a shade above 11/5 on Betfair


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    danganabu wrote: »
    It is a huge advantage having 8pl, if it was only 5pl you would only be getting 2/7ths as opposed to 5/7ths

    More places is always an advantage unless it falls on exactly the lower line with a greater number tied on the higher line.

    Spieth is freely available at far greater than 2.38, he is 2/1 in most books and a shade above 11/5 on Betfair

    Perhaps, the lower place books were all 1/4 not 1/5.

    Will always opt for the extra places option myself, just incase there is a rare case of a sequential descending final leaderboard.

    @3/3.2 current best price, but was around 2.5 last night. Have the opening price @10/10pl on about 20% of the arrays, couldn't imagine backing now or anytime going forward at less than 5.0 with reduced places.

    Sky still not offering a cash-out on 6650/1 (less with Rule4's), not to worry have various lines of place wildcards also, Kodaira was one of the biggest numerals, early days but still in with a hope of place.

    pzLNXfd.png

    Have also switched tack to the GNational away from x2 favs. After consulting the two Oracles, one forecasts Speith, but and the other (as you horse folks mentioned in another thread) is for an 'older horse' (well 11yr) to win the GN. So Buywise/Milansbar and a few others may go on the next set of accas.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Sky still not offering a cash-out on 6650/1 (less with Rule4's), not to worry have various lines of place wildcards also, Kodaira was one of the biggest numerals, early days but still in with a hope of place.

    How much is the R4 on the last selection?

    With the non-runner and forgetting about the R4 its settled as a 4 fold @ 950/1 hope you have a nice chunk on - I wouldnt be cashing out to be honest, Mcilroy looks the only realistic danger to Spieth in that kind of form, and that's with Mcilroy finding form with the putter.

    And of course it would take an absolute miracle for the e/w part not to come in.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    danganabu wrote: »
    How much is the R4 on the last selection?

    With the non-runner and forgetting about the R4 its settled as a 4 fold @ 950/1 hope you have a nice chunk on - I wouldnt be cashing out to be honest, Mcilroy looks the only realistic danger to Spieth in that kind of form, and that's with Mcilroy finding form with the putter.

    And of course it would take an absolute miracle for the e/w part not to come in.

    Just 10%/10c/10p Rule 4 on both, cash-outs non forthcoming from Sky, but always open to them if reasonable, as nothing is a certainty. Garcia went pond drinking/splashdown on the 15th and thus did an slightly unexpected '13 shots' on it which likely ruined his day.

    Always only do modest stakes on high-yield, that way never get stung.

    Only had a quick scan of the GN card, but perhaps less than x4 11yr's with a hope of contention (none fav so far). Always worth taking these predictions with a dose of salt of course.

    zLazqKe.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Spieth opens on a double-bogey, is yet to see a birdie and currently +4 (for R2) on 10th.

    On the plus side is back out to 8/1. With the weather to be very poor tomorrow, expect more of the unexpected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,561 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    With the weather to be very poor tomorrow, expect more of the unexpected.

    All very familiar names at the top of the leaderboard going into day 3 though. Is this usually the way at the masters I wonder.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    All very familiar names at the top of the leaderboard going into day 3 though. Is this usually the way at the masters I wonder.

    For sure, esp R4, Saturday sees a storm coming in so possible rain delays, wind increase and the dreaded risk of fork lightening upon metal sticks.

    Still a bit of 5pl, and perhaps just x14 in any real contention. About x4 of them at lower double-digits that could fair well.

    I'm looking at the odds chart from T-10days and it's a very close match to end of R2, not so much R1. Will post diagram in a bit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    No real big surprises from those at -2 or better, expect those strings to tighten further (pending weather chaos):

    ik1HVzl.png

    Just two slightly possible value wildcards (5pl or W/O markets) to add to the May's medium-term acca.
    The trickier question is which outsider will land 4th and place in Eurovision.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Today's chart at end of R3, into final round, shows similar correlation to the bet trend stack from back in mid-march.
    Several slightly over performing and others under, but all in all, a fairly tight match-up.

    For anyone who didn't get the 10pl, the only attraction now is W/O markets.
    And the consistent positive trajectory of i) Rahm ii) Watson.
    Both within possible place territory (W/O top trio) cut-off at -6.

    ylPzp3x.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    What is the bet trend stack please?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    abarkie wrote: »
    What is the bet trend stack please?

    Mean average bookie (x27) odds (in sequence), taken 10days pre-tournament.

    1. Rory @9
    2. JT @11
    3. DJ @11
    4. Tiger @12 (was never really sold on this, hype)
    5. Spieth @14

    Reed was @47.5 which is an exception, still, not over yet.


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