The Golf Tips Thread

sb78

fangee wrote: »

Anybody know who the racing post have tipped up ?

sorry just saw this now...

Racing Post went for:
Rose 2.5 pts ew
F Molinari 1.5 pts ew
Casey 1 pt ew
Horsey 1 pt ew
Manassero 1 pt ew
A Hansen 0.5 pt ew

Steve Palmer hasn't tipped a winner for a while by my calculations, but still their coverage of the touraments are pretty good.

I have backed Horsey, Paul Lawrie and Shane Lowry myself. I think they are all in form, and suited to Wentworth.
Horsey got to a playoff in a minor event last week, so he's in form. Lawrie has a decent record here. You could get anything from Shane Lowry but he finished 4th here 2 years ago

Hoki

BMW

Ernie Els - 45/1
Matteo Manassero - 55/1
Simon Khan - 200/1

Crowne

Chris Kirk - 40/1
Zach Johnson - 15/1
Martin Laird - 33/1

bobwilliams

redzerdrog wrote: »

cant be having David Lynn here this week, he has been home in England for the past two weeks and judging by his twitter he had been drunk pretty much since getting home until this week. He has a poor record here and when asked on twitter about his chances this week he said they werent great. 66/1 is poor value for him here imo

I don't post for you to disect my bets,fwiw I can't have Hoffman this week,one of ur picks.
Also,you said the wind would not suit Rory,nonsense.
I think you get too caught up on stats,past course form etc,a really hot putter is what gets you into contention more often than not.

fangee

sb78 wrote: »

sorry just saw this now...

Racing Post went for:
Rose 2.5 pts ew
F Molinari 1.5 pts ew
Casey 1 pt ew
Horsey 1 pt ew
Manassero 1 pt ew
A Hansen 0.5 pt ew

Steve Palmer hasn't tipped a winner for a while by my calculations, but still their coverage of the touraments are pretty good.

I have backed Horsey, Paul Lawrie and Shane Lowry myself. I think they are all in form, and suited to Wentworth.
Horsey got to a playoff in a minor event last week, so he's in form. Lawrie has a decent record here. You could get anything from Shane Lowry but he finished 4th here 2 years ago

Nice one. Thanks.

I should of said PGA Tour as I rarely back in Europe although the quality is high enough this weekend.

Sometimes I can't get a bet on til the Wednesday night or even the Thursday so I only ask because I want to avoid his selections because they shorten so much.

Thanks again and do you happen to know who he tipped up on PGA ?

sb78

fangee wrote: »

Nice one. Thanks.

I should of said PGA Tour as I rarely back in Europe although the quality is high enough this weekend.

Sometimes I can't get a bet on til the Wednesday night or even the Thursday so I only ask because I want to avoid his selections because they shorten so much.

Thanks again and do you happen to know who he tipped up on PGA ?

sure, no problem

for crowne PLaza, RP picks are below:
Kevin Streelman 2pts ew
Tim Clark 1pt ew
Ben Crane 1pt ew
John Huh 1pt ew
Brian Davis 0.5pt ew

that's true about his selections shortening. Even if they stand out, they are never going to be value after Steve Palmer mentions them in the RP.
I'd love to see his P/L for the year so far....

sb78

he also mentioned Zach Johnson for a saver bet, given his great course average at this course.
But he is no value at 15/1, and is not in great form

fangee

sb78 wrote: »

sure, no problem

for crowne PLaza, RP picks are below:
Kevin Streelman 2pts ew
Tim Clark 1pt ew
Ben Crane 1pt ew
John Huh 1pt ew
Brian Davis 0.5pt ew

that's true about his selections shortening. Even if they stand out, they are never going to be value after Steve Palmer mentions them in the RP.
I'd love to see his P/L for the year so far....

So he has mentioned 3 of the 4 I put up....

Glad I got my bets on on Tuesday.

A few years ago he was killing me because I would (lazily) leave it 'til the Wednesday or Thursday to strike my bet only to find out he had tipped up who I wanted to back and they would be savagely shorter than I expected.

So I now try to make sure I am on before the Wednesday.

On the basis of the odds I got and the odds they are now I could lay off for very small profit but that won't be happening.

Thanks again for posting up his selections.

redzerdrog

bobwilliams wrote: »

I don't post for you to disect my bets,fwiw I can't have Hoffman this week,one of ur picks.
Also,you said the wind would not suit Rory,nonsense.
I think you get too caught up on stats,past course form etc,a really hot putter is what gets you into contention more often than not.

ha dont be so touchy my post had nothing got to do with your selections so don't flatter yourself.

It was a general observation about Lynn as a big fan of his and someone I have followed closely this year and backed a lot. I was giving reasoning as to why I didn't fancy him this week. Because of recent form he is now a quarter of the price he was over recent events. He has been on the beer for a week solid, said himself he doesnt fancy his chances and has a poor record around wentworth.

just on Rory, he is one of the best it the world and of course he can win any event he plays in. I was giving my reasons for not picking him as you cant pick pick the whole field. There are marginal reasons for selecting/not selecting plenty of the field. And my reasoning behind not picking Mcilroy is his sometimes dislike for the bad conditions which I think is a valid enough reason.

Here is some quotes from Rory himself after the 2011 brittish open

"I'm not a fan of golf tournaments where the outcome is predicted so much by the weather. It's not my sort of golf."

McIlroy nodded at the suggestion that if he's going to contend at golf's oldest Major Championship, he's going to deal with the weather.

"It's either that or just wait for a year when the weather is nice," he responded.

"My game is suited basically for every golf course and most conditions but I don't enjoy playing in these conditions, really.

"I'd rather play when it's 80 degrees and sunny and there's not much wind," McIlroy went on.

"I can play in the wind but it's a case of just being comfortable doing that."

redzerdrog

sb78 wrote: »

that's true about his selections shortening. Even if they stand out, they are never going to be value after Steve Palmer mentions them in the RP.
I'd love to see his P/L for the year so far....

Is there a p&l for the year available for his selections? Do they ever publish it?

I don't follow his tips at all but I like the Racing Post coverage of the tournament

premierstone

bobwilliams wrote: »

I don't post for you to disect my bets,fwiw I can't have Hoffman this week,one of ur picks.
Also,you said the wind would not suit Rory,nonsense.
I think you get too caught up on stats,past course form etc,a really hot putter is what gets you into contention more often than not.

If you dont want opinions on them then dont post them on a public forum!

Course form is huge in Golf aswell and if you are ignoring it then you are giving up a serious edge.

bobwilliams

premierstone wrote: »

If you dont want opinions on them then dont post them on a public forum!

Course form is huge in Golf aswell and if you are ignoring it then you are giving up a serious edge.

don't remember saying i would ignore it,can you quote pls?

redzerdrog

bobwilliams wrote: »

I think you get too caught up on stats,past course form etc,a really hot putter is what gets you into contention more often than not.

Is this not a contradiction in itself? How do you know who's putter is hot without looking at the putting stats?

bobwilliams

redzerdrog wrote: »

Is this not a contradiction in itself? How do you know who's putter is hot without looking at the putting stats?

No,it's a not a contradiction at all,you just don't get it.
As i already stated i never said 'ignore' stats.People get too caught up in them that's all.
You don't know and more importantly neither does the player before they tee it up if they're going to have a great week on the greens.

Aside from the top handfull like Stricker etc who put great nearly every week there is very little to seperate the others on the greens,i have a mate caddying on the euro tour and he agrees.They are all super putters it's just a matter of who clicks on a certain week with the flat stick.

sb78

redzerdrog wrote: »

Is there a p&l for the year available for his selections? Do they ever publish it?

I don't follow his tips at all but I like the Racing Post coverage of the tournament

not too sure, but if he does pick out a winner you can gaurantee that its splashed all over the racing post the following week...of course, you never hear about all the losers...
I remember reading somewhere on the internet that he had a great year a couple of years ago, think that was 2011. But for 2012, he had a bad year, and same this year.

Then again, I suppose we all have those bad runs. Betting on golf, you can have long losing streaks and turn it around with one big BOOOM

premierstone

bobwilliams wrote: »

No,it's a not a contradiction at all,you just don't get it.
As i already stated i never said 'ignore' stats.People get too caught up in them that's all.
You don't know and more importantly neither does the player before they tee it up if they're going to have a great week on the greens.

Aside from the top handfull like Stricker etc who put great nearly every week there is very little to seperate the others on the greens,i have a mate caddying on the euro tour and he agrees.They are all super putters it's just a matter of who clicks on a certain week with the flat stick.

So what you are saying is that a good week on the greens is what will decide most tournaments, which of course is true, but you also accept that deciding who will have a good week is pot luck and can't be predicted.

Therefore the only tangible factors we have to work on are current form, course form and season stats, unless we are clairvoyant of course.

FWIW course form and predicting who will have a good week on the greens are very much linked - why do you think the same golfers perform well at Augusta every year??

fangee

I think Luke Donald might miss the cut.

callaway92

Hoki wrote: »

BMW

Ernie Els - 45/1
Matteo Manassero - 55/1
Simon Khan - 200/1

Nice picks, going well so far.

How in god's name did you end up with Simon Khan? 0 form going into this. I know he's a previous winner but for a guy with a year + of nothing it was an inspired choice.

Best of luck with it!

bobwilliams

premierstone wrote: »

So what you are saying is that a good week on the greens is what will decide most tournaments, which of course is true, but you also accept that deciding who will have a good week is pot luck and can't be predicted.

Therefore the only tangible factors we have to work on are current form, course form and season stats, unless we are clairvoyant of course.

FWIW course form and predicting who will have a good week on the greens are very much linked - why do you think the same golfers perform well at Augusta every year??

you make a good point re Augusta but don't forget it's a smaller entry list and a very unique set of greens.
i was simply saying to reddog that some people can get a bit caught up in stats.
I didn't say don't use them,i didn't say i don't use them.
I was making the point that after each comp i look at the topten or so and go backwards looking at stats like the one's you mention and what i've found is that more often than not picking that player out would have had to beeen with a pin.

bobwilliams

just backed Leishman @28/1 in running,before the leaders dropped their shots(think the lead was 11 under at one stage) he went to 33/1,he's only 4 off the lead,the way he's playing of late he should be close come Sunday.

Hoki

callaway92 wrote: »

Nice picks, going well so far.

How in god's name did you end up with Simon Khan? 0 form going into this. I know he's a previous winner but for a guy with a year + of nothing it was an inspired choice.

Best of luck with it!

You're dead right, he has been in dreadful form for a long time but course form is a hugely important when it comes to making your final picks for a tournament & Khan definitely has that at Wentworth. This is his 10th time playing here and out of the 9 times he has already played here he has 5 top 25's including winning it in 2010 and finishing 2nd in 2006. For that reason alone i just couldn't not back him at 200/1, great value imo

fangee

Hoki wrote: »

BMW

Ernie Els - 45/1
Matteo Manassero - 55/1
Simon Khan - 200/1

Crowne

Chris Kirk - 40/1
Zach Johnson - 15/1
Martin Laird - 33/1

Go on ya lad ya.

Hope you have Khan EW.

Enjoy the playoff and don't have a heart attack. Smoke a dirty big reefer to try and chill out.

All the best !

Nuri Sahin

Hopefully you have him E/W Hoki.

Not looking good for Khan after his second shot found the water on the 4th playoff hole. Mannasero with a chance for eagle and to wrap this up.

redzerdrog

I know who didnt have him each way! Me!!!
And my fone went dead during the playoff so couldnt even cash out, i am raging at the min!!!

Nuri Sahin

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

HP Byron Nelson:

2) Boo Weekley @ 55/1

Sad panda is sad.

Hoki

I most definitely had Khan each way, not to shabby getting paid at 50/1 for a second place finish! By far and away my biggest golfing wins this weekend, all 3 of my picks at Wentworth placed. Once Warren butchered his tee shot in the playoff i was onto a sure thing, would obviously have preferred Khan to win but il take the consolation of Mannasero beating him, happy out

redzerdrog

Anyone taking the 9/4 on Tiger?

personally think it is a bit too short considering the quality of the field

Dolph Starbeam

redzerdrog wrote: »

Anyone taking the 9/4 on Tiger?

personally think it is a bit too short considering the quality of the field

Serious chance but too short. Only bet for me this week is Matt Kuchar each way, he has to finish an event out soon and he has a good record here.

redzerdrog

YayaBanana wrote: »

Serious chance but too short. Only bet for me this week is Matt Kuchar each way, he has to finish an event out soon and he has a good record here.

I am looking at him in the betting without woods market myself.

Nuri Sahin

redzerdrog wrote: »

Anyone taking the 9/4 on Tiger?

personally think it is a bit too short considering the quality of the field

If he was double those odds I'd jump on it.

Think you're spot on with the betting w/o TW market for this week.

bradlente

Never backing Tiger at that price.He could run away with it but I could never back a golf bet so short.For me it's the big price's that make it interesting.

I like Luke Donald and Jim Furyk's chance's.Two player's in decent form with tonne's of course history.Ernie El's @80s could have a little bit of action too.

Wood's,Kuch and Rose should all be near the top come Sunday but I don't think I can bring myself to take any of their price's.Maybe a little bit of Rose@29.