The Golf Tips Thread

zimmermania

bassy wrote: »

come on ZIMMER whats your masters prediction?

Looking at the practice days on SKY the course will be softer than usual and scoring will be better and it is probable that more players have an opportunity to win.

The ability to hit the ball very high may not count for as much this year and McIlroy and Rahm should not enjoy an advantage over others that they have when greens are firm.

It does not make it any easier (to pick a winner) that conditions may make this seem like an "ordinary" tournament at least for the first 3 days before the pressure of being in with a chance of winning kicks in.

I will not be surprised if DeChambeau dominates with his length but he is too short a price to win outright and i have backed him to be first round leader at 16s PP.

i have backed Finau who finds it hard to win but does not seem to be a choker and his day will come.He looks sure to be in the top 10 and will give us a run (i hope).

Schauffele rather than Cantalay may be best of the young guns and he also gets the burden of my tenner ew.

The real mccoy 91

Taking the tried and trusted approach with 2 former winners as my main bets

Watson 28/1
Spieth 66/1

Finau 28/1my best of the rest and a couple of flyers on cam smith 70/1 and si woo Kim 125/1

First round leader rightly or wrongly I'm ruling out anyone on a 10th tee start as playing amen corner off the bat has to be a negative I would think?

Koepka 22/1
Z johnson 80/1
Snedeker 80/1
Im 60/1

zimmermania

Morrison J wrote: »

If backing Bryson I think the move is to wait a couple of holes and bet on him live.

Starts early in the morning on the 10th. Going to be cold and straight into amen corner. Drop a shot and you'll be getting better than 8/1 on him immediately.

Ah yes but this guy will be well warmed up and if he comes through the first few holes on the back nine unscathed his price will shorten and punters will probably not get anything like 10 places,its a case of pros and cons.

Trouser Snake

An, Fitzpatrick and Wolff small e/w

TW to miss the cut

Rahm on the nose.

GL all.

Luap

Tommy Fleetwood that is all folks.

Gavin "shels"

Had an ew dabble on Cameron Champ 66/1

Morrison J

zimmermania wrote: »

Ah yes but this guy will be well warmed up and if he comes through the first few holes on the back nine unscathed his price will shorten and punters will probably not get anything like 10 places,its a case of pros and cons.

You'd hardly back him ew at 7/1 though would you? It's an outright win or nothing at that price. It's a risk I'd definitely be willing to take if I was a Bryson backer personally.

langer91

Bryson currently 10/1 - at what price are people hopping on?

Morrison J

langer91 wrote: »

Bryson currently 10/1 - at what price are people hopping on?

I'm not a Bryson backer but I'd hop on the 20s available now if I was. Nearly 3 times his price this morning. Can get those two shots back on one par 5.

langer91

Morrison J wrote: »

I'm not a Bryson backer but I'd hop on the 20s available now if I was. Nearly 3 times his price this morning. Can get those two shots back on one par 5.

Just took him at 18’s e/w 8 places

zimmermania

Morrison J wrote: »

You'd hardly back him ew at 7/1 though would you? It's an outright win or nothing at that price. It's a risk I'd definitely be willing to take if I was a Bryson backer personally.

I backed him at 16s to be 1st round leader,7/1 to win was a crazy price.

As i posted earlier conditions have turned this into an "ordinary" tournament i.e one that is very open, at least for the first 3 days and that is bad for punters because more players can win it.

It will be as exciting as ever and a large number of players (inc DeChambeau) are in contention but it might be better now to wait until the last round before having another bet.

But anyone who backs big priced players may get a run for their money.

Degag

I have an interesting one with Finau. Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1. The difference being that i would only get 6 places as opposed to the 10 places pre-tournament. Any opinions on how to go? If he binked it it would be worth about 200 quid more by cashing out and re-investing.

okidoki987

Degag wrote: »

I have an interesting one with Finau. Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1. The difference being that i would only get 6 places as opposed to the 10 places pre-tournament. Any opinions on how to go? If he binked it it would be worth about 200 quid more by cashing out and re-investing.

I've read that 3 times and I still can't figure what you mean?

I am going to guess this is what you have.
You have backed him e/w 10 places at 28/1 pre tournament.
You have been offered a cash out of €23 which means a €3 profit as you have staked €20 already.
You can now back him at 40/1 for €11.50 but 6 places.
Not sure what "binked" is and not sure how you are getting "it would be worth about 200 quid more..?

Potential Underachiever

okidoki987 wrote: »

I've read that 3 times and I still can't figure what you mean?

I am going to guess this is what you have.
You have backed him e/w 10 places at 28/1 pre tournament.
You have been offered a cash out of €23 which means a €3 profit as you have staked €20 already.
You can now back him at 40/1 for €11.50 but 6 places.
Not sure what "binked" is and not sure how you are getting "it would be worth about 200 quid more..?

Binked means win.

200 quid more as he was talking about backing him at 40/1 instead of 28/1 after he cashed out.

charlesanto

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

Binked means win.

200 quid more as he was talking about backing him at 40/1 instead of 28/1 after he cashed out.

But the numbers quoted are highly improbable, there is zero chance that a player has drifted from 28/1 to 40/1 and any book is offering a profitable cash out.

Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1.

akelly02

okidoki987 wrote: »

I've read that 3 times and I still can't figure what you mean?

I am going to guess this is what you have.
You have backed him e/w 10 places at 28/1 pre tournament.
You have been offered a cash out of €23 which means a €3 profit as you have staked €20 already.
You can now back him at 40/1 for €11.50 but 6 places.
Not sure what "binked" is and not sure how you are getting "it would be worth about 200 quid more..?

Keep your bet ,man

okidoki987

charlesanto wrote: »

But the numbers quoted are highly improbable, there is zero chance that a player has drifted from 28/1 to 40/1 and any book is offering a profitable cash out.

That's what I was thinking.

Binked means win.

Tx.
You learn something new everyday .

mailburner

charlesanto wrote: »

But the numbers quoted are highly improbable, there is zero chance that a player has drifted from 28/1 to 40/1 and any book is offering a profitable cash out.

My first thought also and having backed him each way I was being offered around 83% of my full stake at a few hours ago (when -3)

okidoki987

When the delayed 2nd round gets finished tomorrow, the leaderboard is going to be very congested at the top leading to 2 days of some superb golf me thinks.

Degag

charlesanto wrote: »

But the numbers quoted are highly improbable, there is zero chance that a player has drifted from 28/1 to 40/1 and any book is offering a profitable cash out.

Well, that's what i would have thought. However in the end i got €24.89 back on Finau from a €20 bet made on him at 28/1.

I then placed this (€12.44 e/w) on him at 40/1.

It's probably a moot point now anyway as he needs a decent run of birdies to get back into things.

bassy

is pp paying for joint 10th finish??.

charlesanto

bassy wrote: »

is pp paying for joint 10th finish??.

Suppose it finishes as it stands now with six players tied 10th
and you have one of those players at 120/1
your return on a fiver E/W is ...
120 / 5 / 6 = 4/1
.... returning €25

munster87

Think Larrazabal will go well. 40/1 8 places with Paddypower. Loves Leopard Creek, won here last year and in better form this year coming into it.

zimmermania

Pat Perez 100 to1 Mayakoba golf classic.
S Jaimeson 22 to 1 South African open.

abarkie

E/w Doubles

Mayakoba Golf Classic - Brooks Koepka@12/1 & Chez Reavie@50/1

South African Open - Dylan Frittelli@9/1 & Scott Jamieson@22/1

zimmermania

At least we have golf back to take our minds off all the other stuff we are having to deal with.

It wont be easy to figure who is tuned up for the first event of 2021 in a small but select field on a course that suits big hitters.

For my money i have chosen Patrick Reid who has a brilliant record here and is rarely out of the money,he has been playing well on both sides of the atlantic and may be sharper than many taking part.

Instead of backing Reid ew this week i put a tenner win at 14/1 and 20 to finish in the top 10 at evens with PP who only go 1/5th 6 places.

Reid looks a safe bet to finish in the top 10 on a track that suits him,not short off the tee but not up there with the longest hitters, his good iron play and unreal short game will always make him a danger at Kapalua.

NATLOR

zimmermania wrote: »

At least we have golf back to take our minds off all the other stuff we are having to deal with.

It wont be easy to figure who is tuned up for the first event of 2021 in a small but select field on a course that suits big hitters.

For my money i have chosen Patrick Reid who has a brilliant record here and is rarely out of the money,he has been playing well on both sides of the atlantic and may be sharper than many taking part.

Instead of backing Reid ew this week i put a tenner win at 14/1 and 20 to finish in the top 10 at evens with PP who only go 1/5th 6 places.

Reid looks a safe bet to finish in the top 10 on a track that suits him,not short off the tee but not up there with the longest hitters, his good iron play and unreal short game will always make him a danger at Kapalua.

You can get 16s on Reed with PP, win only enhanced prices

okidoki987

NATLOR wrote: »

You can get 16s on Reed with PP, win only enhanced prices

or back him at 18.0 (17/1) on Betfair Exchange, works out at 16.66/1 if on a 2% commission rate.

zimmermania

NATLOR wrote: »

You can get 16s on Reed with PP, win only enhanced prices

Good advice,i have taken the 16/1 with PP and we must always seek out the best value because that is often the only difference between winning and losing.

There is always better value prices betting win only and we can still back place only 10 or even 20 places if we wish.

zimmermania

I backed Lanto Griffin at 40/1 PP (enhanced win only) who was 7th in this last year and finished well last week for 13th in Kapalua,i also backed him at 2/1 to finish in the top 20 for a bigger stake.