The Golf Tips Thread

NATLOR

munster87 wrote:

Looked like Homa had the win in the bag, oh dear

You were robbed there, but can Tony keep it together to finally win?

redzerdrog

Ugh

munster87

NATLOR wrote: »

You were robbed there, but can Tony keep it together to finally win?

Have to feel for Tony some bit

okidoki987

munster87 wrote: »

Have to feel for Tony some bit

Especially those who backed him at 33/1, win only :eek:.
Getting closer to the big payout.

abarkie

okidoki987 wrote: »

Especially those who backed him at 33/1, win only :eek:.
Getting closer to the big payout.

If already on Finau, why not back Homa in the play off or lay Finau on the exchanges?

Guaranteed money / win

okidoki987

abarkie wrote: »

If already on Finau, why not back Homa in the play off or lay Finau on the exchanges?

Guaranteed money / win

True and I would have normally done exactly that but circumstances at that time meant I couldn't hedge it.

Potential Underachiever

I was following the odds on Betfair exchange and Finau went to 1.09 in the playoff straight after Homa's Tee shot on the 10th when it was stuck beside the tree, was a prime time to lay if you wanted but I mean it was a small window.

munster87

Finau was 1/10 on Betfair sportsbook when I looked as Homa was chipping from beside the tree.

Potential Underachiever

I've backed Thomas this week 20/1 for the bounce back win, seems a big price for a player of his quality, the likes of Rory, Schauffele, Cantlay, Hatton at lower or similar price to Thomas, I'd have Thomas as a better player than them all, even Rahm is 12/1 and you'd be splitting hairs between those players too.

munster87

I must have a proper look at the workday but Reed at 30/1 looks a decent price in comparison to others near head of the market

Augme

Dechambuea is another interesting one. He is one of the few top players who has course form as he won an ncaa tournament on the course in 2015. But his recent form is a huge turn off. Same with Thomas.

Potential Underachiever

Augme wrote: »

Dechambuea is another interesting one. He is one of the few top players who has course form as he won an ncaa tournament on the course in 2015. But his recent form is a huge turn off. Same with Thomas.

Form is temporary and all that, when lads are that good they seemingly can just turn it on like a tap, look at koepka recently 3 missed cuts then a win, Berger missed the cut the week before his win, Reed did the same. Thomas only missed one cut last week , his form isn't even that bad 13, 3, 12 the three events before that. Bryson would also interest me tbh..

zimmermania

abarkie wrote: »

Does this work over the full tournament? or is it a longer thing?

Just over the tournament,its a bit complicated but basically get your 6 to qualify and hopefully have a couple in contention,i had 4 going well and two missed the cut by a shot.

LuckyGent88

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Rory 5 e/w @ 12/1
Morikawa 5 e/w @ 33/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 2e/w @ 66/1
Max homa 2 e/w @ 66/1
Molinari 1 e/w @ 100/1

In saying all that; can’t see anybody outside the top 10 in the odds winning this. Big boy tournament on a big classic golf course usually gets the cream at the top

Nice little return to golf betting for me. Can only go downhill from here!!

DJIMI TRARORE

Got a few quid on the fan golf, 2/3 since I started playing, hadn't a clue where the money came from in my account 😊, had dj, Fitz, speith, Hughes,Cantlay, grillo

Augme

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

Form is temporary and all that, when lads are that good they seemingly can just turn it on like a tap, look at koepka recently 3 missed cuts then a win, Berger missed the cut the week before his win, Reed did the same. Thomas only missed one cut last week , his form isn't even that bad 13, 3, 12 the three events before that. Bryson would also interest me tbh..

I guess wit Thomas I'd be more concerned about the impact of his grandad passing than just hid form. It's been a rocky last month for him on the personal side of things. The more he drifts though the more tempting he becomes.

He has drifted out in the masters market which is definitely worth looking at. It's still a good bit away that I'd be far less concerned about his mental side still being impacted.

Potential Underachiever

Augme wrote: »

I guess wit Thomas I'd be more concerned about the impact of his grandad passing than just hid form. It's been a rocky last month for him on the personal side of things. The more he drifts though the more tempting he becomes.

He has drifted out in the masters market which is definitely worth looking at. It's still a good bit away that I'd be far less concerned about his mental side still being impacted.

Yep understandable, but he could be dedicating the victory to his grandad come Sunday

He's actually drifted to 23/1 on the exchange now, so I took a bad price, thems the breaks, honestly didn't think he would drift.

munster87

Workday

Reed 30/1
Cantlay 18/1
Cam Smith 55/1

Peurto Rico

Grillo 16/1
Vegas 35/1
Teater 66/1

All 7 places e/w

okidoki987

Racing Post preview and tips by Ian Wilkerson (don't know his form)

Wilkerson's top tip: Webb Simpson 30-1
It is difficult to say exactly what skills will come to the fore when a course is tackled by elite company for the first time, but the tight fairways and undulating greens at the Florida track point to a tricky test.

And even though it stretches beyond 7,400 yards, this could prove an examination that demands strong course management and the ability to guide the ball around while avoiding danger.

Find the fairways and exhibit some decent iron play and you could be in business, and one player who fits that mould is Webb Simpson.

The former US Open champion has found his best form for years since the PGA Tour underwent a virus sabbatical. He won the RBC Heritage in June - the second tournament after the return to action - and has missed just one cut since.

He is ranked third in driving accuracy, 39th in greens in regulation and has found his touch with the flatstick as well as he is ranked 14th in the strokes-gained putting statistic.

Simpson has the scrambling skills to cope if he does miss the undulating Concession putting surfaces and he has posted six top-ten finishes since his RBC triumph.

He was tied for 42nd last time out at the Phoenix Open but it was not a wasted week as he recovered well from a disappointing opening 73, so he could put in another decent performance in a week when he seems to tick plenty of boxes.

Next best bet: Tyrrell Hatton 20-1
Tyrrell Hatton has firmly established himself among the world's best players and he should relish the opportunity to prove he deserves his rise to fifth in the global rankings.

Having broken his Stateside duck at last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational, he has gone from strength to strength and his three missed cuts in his last 26 outings have all been in Majors.

He has claimed nine top-ten finishes since that win and claimed victories at two of the European Tour's biggest tournaments, the PGA Championship at Wentworth and at the Abu Dhabi Championship last month.

His statistics make excellent reading - he is 48th in driving accuracy, 31st in greens in regulation and 24th in strokes-gained putting - and this represents a good opportunity for the man from High Wycombe to truly announce himself on the world stage.

Other selections
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Joaquin Niemann 45-1
There are a host of players with strong claims this week, but two rising stars of the game can make a big impression.

Viktor Hovland has risen to 14th in the world rankings and deserves respect as he is 11th in GIR and fifth in strokes gained off the tee.

A 76 in the final round went a long way towards his disappointing 31st at the Tournament of Champions, but he has recovered well with some consistent performances.

He was second at the Farmers Insurance Open, sixth at the star-studded Saudi International and fifth at the Genesis Invitational last week and he definitely deserves respect, even in this illustrious company.

Joaquin Niemann can make his mark too, even though a Saturday 78 put paid to his Genesis chances after an encouraging start last week.

He was second at both the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open in Hawaii so has some 2021 form in the book and as a player ranked 20th in greens in regulation, this could prove a test that suits him.

Expect him to be knocking at the door, 18 months after a six-shot success at The Greenbrier.

Other players to note
Bryson DeChambeau
The US Open champion won the 2015 NCAA Championship here six years ago, but he has been seen just five times since capturing his first Major in September and he missed the cut last week.

Dustin Johnson
With nine top-tens and an 11th-placed finish in his last ten outings, it is no surprise to see him at a single-figure price, but he fell away in the final round last week and he may be a bit skinny on an unfamiliar track.

Tony Finau
Finau claimed his third successive second-place finish at the Genesis last week and has not won since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. He's obviously playing well but all these near-misses must be taking their toll.

Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has three WGC triumphs on his CV but he missed the cut by a street last week so it is difficult to be confident.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard has been ultra-consistent and has previous experience of the course having finished 22nd in the college championship six years ago. It would be no surprise if he featured at the top of the leaderboard again.

The Concession course guide
Course The Concession GC, Bradenton, Florida
Prize money $10.5m ($1.82m to winner)
Length 7,474 yards
Par 72
Field 72

Course winners taking part Bryson DeChambeau (2015 NCAA Men's Championship)
When to bet By 4pm Thursday
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Thursday
Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK & Ireland

Last week - Genesis Invitational 1 M Homa (60-1), 2 T Finau (25-1), 3 S Burns (100-1), 4 C Smith (90-1), T5 M Fitzpatrick (70-1), T5 V Hovland (30-1), T5 J Rahm (12-1)

Course overview The Concession Course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin in recognition of Nicklaus's decision to concede a two-foot putt Jacklin had to earn a tie in the 1969 Ryder Cup. Hence the name.

It was opened in 2006, but the only notable tournament it has hosted was the 2015 NCAA Championship for college students, which was won by US Open champion Bryson Dechambeau. It steps up this week after Covid-19 prevented play at the tournament's most recent home in Mexico City.

Many of the holes are inspired by some of the world's most famous courses ranging from Pebble Beach and Bay Hill to Troon and Birkdale.

One feature is the large bunkers and accurate driving will be required to avoid the trees lining most fairways. The Bermuda greens undulate and are likely be fast, which has encouraged comparisons with Augusta National.

There are four par fives, two in each half and some may be tempted to try and drive the 349-yard 12th. Just one of the four par threes is less than 200 yards.

Story of last year Patrick Reed hit three birdies in the final four holes of his Sunday round to hold DeChambeau at bay in Mexico.

Weather forecast A dry and increasingly warm tournament is expected with temperatures on Sunday expected to peak at about 31C.

Type of player suited to the challenge This is an unfamiliar course that should test all elements of the player's game but those who can regularly find the green and then perform well once they are there could enjoy a profitable week.

okidoki987

Dustin Johnson has drifted from 7.0 to 8.6 on Betfair in a day.
Was in the mix last weekend until early in the 4th round but he's getting to a backable price now?

unplayable

keeping it simple this week

bryson @22
reed @34
jt @24

all win only on the exchange

cant see this an outsider winning this week.

zimmermania

Tiger in single car crash and now in surgery his car left the road.

Potential Underachiever

Thomas & Finau Win Only

Niemann, Zalatoris, Palmer E.W Top 7

munster87

munster87 wrote: »

Workday

Reed 30/1
Cantlay 18/1
Cam Smith 55/1

Peurto Rico

Grillo 16/1
Vegas 35/1
Teater 66/1

All 7 places e/w

Cantlay out is disappointing

redzerdrog

4pts win @18/1 Rory for my sins
4pts e/w @ 28/1 Brooks
1pt e/w @150/1 Andy Sullivan

2pt e/w @55/1 Lahiri

LuckyGent88

Bit late for putting these up. Hopefully keep the winning run from last week going.

Going with iron players this week from what Iv read and seen of the course.

Hatton @18/1 5 e/w
Fitzpatrick @33/1 5 e/w
Webb Simpson @33/1 2 e/w

munster87

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Bit late for putting these up. Hopefully keep the winning run from last week going.

Going with iron players this week from what Iv read and seen of the course.

Hatton @18/1 5 e/w
Fitzpatrick @33/1 5 e/w
Webb Simpson @33/1 2 e/w

Going well so far

redzerdrog

Gona add 3pts win DJ @25/1 in running

Two par 5s coming up on that hopefully give him a chance to get something going

redzerdrog

redzerdrog wrote: »

Gona add 3pts win DJ @25/1 in running

Two par 5s coming up on that hopefully give him a chance to get something going

That went well!!!!

markc91

Anyone backing Phil for the senior tour today? 10/3 but won both his previous tournaments at that level