The Golf Tips Thread

ledgebag1 · 06-08-2013 8:41pm

Bill hass 60/1
Zach johnson 50/1

Both backed each way

Nuri Sahin · 06-08-2013 8:52pm

Can't edit original post. Bradley added.

USPGA Championship:

1) Dustin Johnson @ 40/1
2) Henrik Stenson @ 45/1
3) Keegan Bradley @ 50/1
4) Ian Poulter @ 50/1
5) Webb Simpson @ 70/1

Wacker The Attacker · 06-08-2013 9:04pm

I haven't even considered Tiger Woods for a major for at least three years. Is it worth it now?

The_Kew_Tour · 06-08-2013 10:16pm

Could not back Tiger at 4s.

He seems like he is getting back to old self of maybe dominating, but still question marks.

Anyone who got Tiger at 8s is on great bet, but value gone now.

CheltenhamJ · 06-08-2013 10:18pm

Adam Scott all day for me

Nuri Sahin · 06-08-2013 11:26pm

Mickelson has confirmed he's not using his driver this week. If his odd were a bit higher, I'd have backed him for sure. Shame.

Also Stenson now down as low as 22/1. Some drop.

The_Kew_Tour · 06-08-2013 11:53pm

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

Also Stenson now down as low as 22/1. Some drop.

Very low for guy who has not won major. Playing well I know, but still.

Muff Richardson · 07-08-2013 12:37am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Very low for guy who has not won major. Playing well I know, but still.

do you think a player having a major behind them is key to being a decent punt? I don't, no doubt every major winner is a class act but I think there's a sh*tload of luck in winning one and that's why it's so cruel to some of the best players. look at Darren Clarke, I'd be surprised if he won a game of crazy golf in court town let alone another major or even a tour win, he's 350/1 and rightly so.

I'd put everything down to consistency and current form, no doubting his current form and he's been in the top ten for a long time, and always there or thereabouts in tourny's...that's where I'd put my focus on when backing some lad, not what he has or had in the trophy cabinet.

also, and this is pure conjecture and nothing more but stenson seems to have whatever it is they need to carry them over the line on final day, whatever being what your sergios and westwoods lack...all in all, 25/1 is a decent price for stenson and if you got him closer to 40's then that's very good IMO.

by the way, if Darren Clarke wins this I promise never to show my ugly dumbass mugg around here again.

The_Kew_Tour · 07-08-2013 12:46am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

do you think a player having a major behind them is key to being a decent punt? I don't, no doubt every major winner is a class act but I think there's a sh*tload of luck in winning one and that's why it's so cruel to some of the best players. look at Darren Clarke, I'd be surprised if he won a game of crazy golf in court town let alone another major or even a tour win, he's 350/1 and rightly so.

I'd put everything down to consistency and current form, no doubting his current form and he's been in the top ten for a long time, and always there or thereabouts in tourny's...that's where I'd put my focus on when backing some lad, not what he has or had in the trophy cabinet.

also, and this is pure conjecture and nothing more but stenson seems to have whatever it is they need to carry them over the line on final day, whatever being what your sergios and westwoods lack...all in all, 25/1 is a decent price for stenson and if you got him closer to 40's then that's very good IMO.

by the way, if Darren Clarke wins this I promise never to show my ugly dumbass mugg around here again.

Yes one of the reasons I have shy away from Westwood and Garcia many times.

Also I have always backed on basis of value.

Some people seem to miss that. Stenson value is gone.

Muff Richardson · 07-08-2013 1:01am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Yes one of the reasons I have shy away from Westwood and Garcia many times.

Also I have always backed on basis of value.

Some people seem to miss that. Stenson value is gone.

so by that reckoning you'd actually back the likes of Clarke? or vijay at 350/1 too? he's got 3 majors in the bag and a whole bunch of other stuff

Mr.Prodston · 07-08-2013 1:31am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

so by that reckoning you'd actually back the likes of Clarke? or vijay at 350/1 too? he's got 3 majors in the bag and a whole bunch of other stuff

I think he was actually just saying that some players have been in a position to win a major/should have won and didn't. Westwood and Garcia certainly fall into that category. If Mickelson or Rory were in their positions at certain points you'd know that they have the ability and track-record to do so. It doesn't mean they would but they would be favoured over somebody who hadn't done so.

Also if nobody who hasn't won a major can't win a major then Paddy @125/1 looks like a better bet than before :pac:

The_Kew_Tour · 07-08-2013 1:37am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

so by that reckoning you'd actually back the likes of Clarke? or vijay at 350/1 too? he's got 3 majors in the bag and a whole bunch of other stuff

What are you on about?

Did you not read what I said. Its about value as well as other factors of course.

Not sure where you think I reckon Clarke is value.

Muff Richardson · 07-08-2013 2:00am

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

I think he was actually just saying that some players have been in a position to win a major/should have won and didn't. Westwood and Garcia certainly fall into that category. If Mickelson or Rory were in their positions at certain points you'd know that they have the ability and track-record to do so. It doesn't mean they would but they would be favoured over somebody who hadn't done so.

ummm....that's just common sense tho, and is what i said in my first post. we're all agreed on that much I hope, don't back chokers and those that have won in the past have what it takes.

what I was saying is there is actually value in the likes of stenson even at 22/1 and the fact that he hasn't won a major stands for nothing IMO, I'd put every punt down to form and consistency even if the player had won squat to date if his stats were good I'd back him before any
former major winner if the former major winners stats weren't as good.

Muff Richardson · 07-08-2013 2:04am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

What are you on about?

Did you not read what I said. Its about value as well as other factors of course.

Not sure where you think I reckon Clarke is value.

because you said you would back a player on the basis that they were former major winners.

you seem to want, long odds, or value as you call it, great form and a former major winner. that's not how it works unfortunately.

Nuri Sahin · 07-08-2013 2:18am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Very low for guy who has not won major. Playing well I know, but still.

He's been in sensational form and arguably the most deserving of a Major this season out of all the players.

ledgebag1 · 07-08-2013 8:41am

The same could be said about Jason Day and Zach Johnson, little difference in fed ex points. and all have had no wins this year. In saying that Stenson has played a few less events so I wonder is that a factor?

The_Kew_Tour · 07-08-2013 9:13am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

because you said you would back a player on the basis that they were former major winners.

you seem to want, long odds, or value as you call it, great form and a former major winner. that's not how it works unfortunately.

The most important thing in Golf is value. In any sport you bet.

That was case we all be backing Tiger and no one else.

You can't seem to grasp the basics. Of course form is important. Man I worry what your thinking.

Muff Richardson · 07-08-2013 9:24am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

You can't seem to grasp the basics. Of course form is important. Man I worry what your thinking.

really? why? we dont even know each other. no need for that really...but anyway...good luck with your bets.

The_Kew_Tour · 07-08-2013 9:31am

Muff Richardson wrote: »

really? why? we dont even know each other. no need for that really...but anyway...good luck with your bets.

I wasnt the one that brought it up in first place.

We will leave it there.

GL too.

Hope for good weekend for all.

fangee · 07-08-2013 10:43am

Sticking with Dustin for this weekend.

Small stakes only.

Lost me nads this season.

whiteshorts · 07-08-2013 10:56am

Hills, Coral & Bet Victor all gone 9/2 Tiger this morning (all 6 places).

fangee · 07-08-2013 11:08am

Tiger is fantastic value.

First 6 places for a free bet.

Username exists · 07-08-2013 11:08am

Added

Poulter @ 60/1
De Laet @ 175/1

superfurry1 · 07-08-2013 1:30pm

Paddy gonna win this week it has been fore-told in my cup of green tea.:D

Username exists · 07-08-2013 2:49pm

superfurry1 wrote: »

Paddy gonna win this week it has been fore-told in my cup of green tea.:D

By Paddy, you mean Paddy Power

superfurry1 · 07-08-2013 6:52pm

Of course i meant paddy power

cmon podge!

EI2011 · 07-08-2013 7:07pm

went all out for this week

mcilroy ew 33s
b hass ew 60s
webb simpson ew 80s
luke donald ew
j day ew

Sean Quagmire · 07-08-2013 9:23pm

"But honey, I can't lose..."

Ok, after some pain staking research I have settled on the below extensive list of players that I think will come close. Small bets - I am not greedy :pac:

AndonHandon · 07-08-2013 9:33pm

Mahan, Merrick and the defending champion.

Tiger ever hits 10/1+ I strike!

Rjd2 · 08-08-2013 5:27am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

The most important thing in Golf is value. In any sport you bet.

That was case we all be backing Tiger and no one else.

You can't seem to grasp the basics. Of course form is important. Man I worry what your thinking.

Yep this is so correct, you want to win over a long period you need value Stenson if he wins at 22/1 will still bring his backers a nice chunk, but the ones who backed him a few months ago at a bigger price will be the ones who will be really smiling.

Someone tipped me Mayo at 8/1 to win The All Ireland very early this year, and he backed it, that's value, compared to what it is now! Now the price is brutal but everyone is smashing it, its why bookies win overall:o

Another example is when would you have preferred to back Woods? Before he smashed it last week or now?

The Golf Tips Thread

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