The Golf Tips Thread

Joe Doe

Would agree with clickerquicklic at 7places, there is some value to be had, based alone on maths, historical data, trending patterns and media reporting as your key variables.
...Without needing 'too much' specific golfing/player insight and knowledge.

Those prices all look the best, but would note that Fowler is (currently) available (at one location) at 45/1 but 6pl however.

qwabercd

I've gone with Stenson, Garcia, Kuchar, Cabrera, Karlsonn and Hoey. Mainly PP but some betfair.

qwabercd

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Reasoning - you are getting 7 places when you should be getting 5
Its a 40% return on Investment pure maths I probably won't even watch a shot till Sunday Evening when I look at the leaderboard , I don't know F-all about Golf just maths these are all great EW bets

You're getting an extra 2 out of 7 places which is an additional 28.5% "ROI", not 40%.

Also, the extra value is on the place part of the bet. An each way bet has two functions - a win bet and a place bet. So only half of the bet is returning additional value. This is before taking into account that a place bet offers quarter the odds and dead heat rules.

Also, Paddypower regularly offers 6 places (has done so for the last few weeks) so although it's being advertised as 2 extra places, in reality it is just one. 5 places in a field of 156 players is a joke and the bookies know it.

Also the above prices can be gotten at higher prices elsewhere in many cases, the extra place lures gamblers in but often it is at a lower price.

It's not just "simple" mathematics.

Good luck with your bets but I find it hard to believe that you have had a ROI greater than 30% on the last 8 majors with that staking strategy.

Joe Doe

This is true, however if like me you don't mind a handy x37.5 'placed multiplier' from a 150/1 shot coming in 7th - to round off a low stake, low risk, high yielding, rolling 4/5 fold e/w accum, then it's all good .
Aim high shoot low etc...

bobwilliams

already posted Furyk @66/1 added him again @60/1
Also couldn't resisit 5/1 on Tiger to miss the cut in my local bookies,11/4 in powers,don't really think he'll miss it but 5/1 was too tempting.

Collie D

Collie D wrote: »

Thomas Bjorn 2pts. e/w @ 66/1
Paul Casey 2 pts. e/w @ 66/1
Jason Dufner 1 pt. e/w @ 100/1

Will add two more before tee-off if I can get the top price

Have added two more as planned

Graeme McDowell 3 pts. e/w @ 28/1, 7 places with Paddy Power
Angel Cabrera 1 pt. @ 83/1 with Betdaq, trying to get matched at 22/1 for 1 pt. for top five finish
Have 4 pts. on work competition

Should my place bet on Cabrera get matched a total outlay of 22 pts. Any player placing = profit (although not a huge one).

Now will try trading. Sometimes like to back first few favourites and lay them off straight away at a point or two lower for free bet.

redzerdrog

All the bull****ting about 7 places being value yet 3 firms were going 8 places am sure any professional gambler would be aware of this

clickerquicklic

redzerdrog wrote: »

All the bull****ting about 7 places being value yet 3 firms were going 8 places am sure any professional gambler would be aware of this

Well aware of Totesport / Betfred / Betfair Sportsbook

Totesport where laying 50 ew max on 100% accounts AFAIK same with Betfred and Betfair where only paying out 25ew max on 7/8 place

clickerquicklic

qwabercd wrote: »

You're getting an extra 2 out of 7 places which is an additional 28.5% "ROI", not 40%.

Also, the extra value is on the place part of the bet. An each way bet has two functions - a win bet and a place bet. So only half of the bet is returning additional value. This is before taking into account that a place bet offers quarter the odds and dead heat rules.

Also, Paddypower regularly offers 6 places (has done so for the last few weeks) so although it's being advertised as 2 extra places, in reality it is just one. 5 places in a field of 156 players is a joke and the bookies know it.

Also the above prices can be gotten at higher prices elsewhere in many cases, the extra place lures gamblers in but often it is at a lower price.

It's not just "simple" mathematics.

Good luck with your bets but I find it hard to believe that you have had a ROI greater than 30% on the last 8 majors with that staking strategy.

5 places is par , 6 places is 20% extra , 7 places is 40% extra. When Paddypower offer 6 places they are giving 20% extra every week but its important to get close to Par value on the win part which is easier with Majors and why I only do majors. I'm getting 40% extra on the place part and i'm probably losing a few quid on the win part because all my win prices could be slightly higher but not much maybe ~5%

The ROI is over 35% anyway over my bets. You sum up the reason most people that gamble lose and probably why 90% people posting on boards lose , you can't spot value even when someone points it out to you.

I'm not taking this thread off topic so will stop posting , nobody seems to want good advice

byronbay2

bobwilliams wrote: »

already posted Furyk @66/1 added him again @60/1
Also couldn't resisit 5/1 on Tiger to miss the cut in my local bookies,11/4 in powers,don't really think he'll miss it but 5/1 was too tempting.

Looking good so far - Tiger 2 over after 3, everyone else making birdies!

redzerdrog

clickerquicklic wrote: »

500ew Scott 16/1
250ew Stenson 16/1
100 ew matsuyma 55/1
200 ew leftie 25/1
200 ew kuchar 40
100 ew day 40
100 ew fowler 40
100 ew speith 45
150 ew Garcia 26
170 ew Woods 23
170 ew kaymar 26
200 ew D johnson 40
130 ew Gmac
60 ew Westwood
60 ew Furyk
500 ew Rose

I'm done be interesting to see how much im on come Sunday

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Well aware of Totesport / Betfred / Betfair Sportsbook

Totesport where laying 50 ew max on 100% accounts AFAIK same with Betfred and Betfair where only paying out 25ew max on 7/8 place

So why not do the above bolded bets across the 3 firms? Surely this would be the type of edge a professional gambler should be looking to exploit?

tomaussie

Kuchar +3 after 7 holes. It's over from a betting point of view for me already.

redzerdrog

Anyone have an in depth look at the weather forecast? From the small bit I have seen it looks like an early/late draw should have an advantage as conditions seem perfect this morning but tomorrow morning they aren't expected to be as calm

clickerquicklic

redzerdrog wrote: »

So why not do the above bolded bets across the 3 firms? Surely this would be the type of edge a professional gambler should be looking to exploit?

Lol you think a professional gambler is going to have a 100% Betfred / Tote or Betfair account :rolleyes:
http://gyazo.com/f5d04532548ae69b5d710647d6522464

for some reason no bookies want to take my stupid mug bets
I have to pay family and friends to do it online or go shops for me

redzerdrog

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Lol you think a professional gambler is going to have a 100% Betfred / Tote or Betfair account :rolleyes:
http://gyazo.com/f5d04532548ae69b5d710647d6522464

for some reason no bookies want to take my stupid mug bets
I have to pay family and friends to do it online or go shops for me

I can only imagine as I am only a small time low stakes punter and I have been having increased difficulties getting on with some accounts recently but I am sure your using bogus accounts for pretty much all your betting so why not avail of the 8 places using a "friends" account?

By the way I actually believe your stakes and have no issue with that with I do think your argument regarding backing so many golfer due to bookies paying 7 places is somewhat flawed as even though bookies are paying 7 places id imagine dead heat comes into play here the majority of times so really if you don't have the winner or one of the 500euro bets don't hit yur pretty screwed.

redzerdrog

When am I gonna learn and start backing McIlroy for First Round Leader I haven't got the exact stats but off the top of my head it must be about 8 times in the past year he has done it (if he holds on today)

skippymac6

byronbay2 wrote: »

Looking good so far - Tiger 2 over after 3, everyone else making birdies!

-3 now you may have talked to soon!

I actually thought he'd struggle as well. Just shows you what talent he has.

SnowDrifts

So annoying when you are backing someone in play and because the odds change quickly, they cancel the bet but still deposit your money! :mad:

Pilsbury Doughboy

You'd be sick if you backed Els and saw the bs he was at on the 1st!

Deco99

Pilsbury Doughboy wrote: »

You'd be sick if you backed Els and saw the bs he was at on the 1st!

Care to elaborate? Didnt see.

Pilsbury Doughboy

Deco99 wrote: »

Care to elaborate? Didnt see.

Yup, he had a bogey putt of no more than 12 inches, he inexplicably contrived to miss that, his stance looked like he was just tapping it in, very lax! To compound the matter, he then back handed the next putt from about 18 inches, that missed as well, triple bogey in the end!

Pilsbury Doughboy

Actually here it is....

Half Rhodesian

my pre tourn pick Rory is off to a flyer (if only tomorrow wasn't a friday) Gmac on the other hand..........

Hope it's going well for everyone

Deco99

Pilsbury Doughboy wrote: »

Actually here it is....

At least ernie had the decency to do it on first hole. Unlike dustin johnson who prefers the back 9 on a sunday

SnowDrifts

Ernie shattered a man's jaw with his drive on the first and apparently was still visibly upset after his round. Think we will let him away with his head not being in it today.

Half Rhodesian

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Ernie shattered a man's jaw with his drive on the first and apparently was still visibly upset after his round. Think we will let him away with his head not being in it today.

only read about this a couple of hours ago. a 60 year old guy, 'blood everywhere' according to els

lol

Pilsbury Doughboy

Pilsbury Doughboy wrote: »

Have Fowler (44) and Spieth (50) win only.

Jaidee 125/1 E.W Top 6, money back if he misses the cut.

Also Have Lowry 125/1 and Harrington 175/1 both E.W Top 6, just to be patriotic.

Took Kaymer at 22/1 , tenner on to get a tenner free bet in play, so will add someone else when it starts.

Good Luck.

5 E.W Ilonen 90/1, top 4.

bobwilliams

Degag wrote: »

I'm not bothered. Put up a few screenshots if you wish. Even if you have bet that kind of money I think it's silly.

I agree 100%,all those bets and not a cent on Rory,i know he's leading but I'm saying it because he's the best iron player in golf and that's what you need to win on this course more than anything.

Way too many bets,efectively backing v himself and the e/w's that he might get up have a very good chance of being split.

Dolph Starbeam

Half Rhodesian wrote: »

only read about this a couple of hours ago. a 60 year old guy, 'blood everywhere' according to els

lol

Lol? Amazing this doesn't happen more often, hopefully the man who was hit recovers soon and hopefully Els doesn't let it affect him too much.

bobwilliams

Half Rhodesian wrote: »

only read about this a couple of hours ago. a 60 year old guy, 'blood everywhere' according to els

lol

would you mind explaining your thinking in putting lol at the end.I think that deserves a ban myself.:mad: