Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

The_Conductor

It'll be a hell of a lot easier to slip in all manner of policies etc under the radar, once Germany's election in September is over. Germany is going to have to take leadership on this- whether they like it or not. They have gotten away with keeping their heads down for the most part- so far, but those cards have been played to death.

The only key policy that has helped matters has been the ECB statement that it would buy unlimited amounts of debt from peripheral Eurozone members, if required to maintain stability in the markets. They haven't had to be held to this- so far, however, increasingly its looking more like a case of when, not if......

The German Constitutional Court has ruled this action allowable- rather surprisingly, given their very narrow interpretations of other EU legislation.

gaius c

StillWaters wrote: »

Yes, we know for sure. But I'm a Keynsian.

Possibly a debate for another place but surely what the money gets spent on has some relevance?

If it's all getting chucked into a bottomless pit signposted "DEBT", it's a lot less useful than money in the "real" economy. Ask the Japanese, ZIRP didn't do them much good.

jay0109

Snakeblood wrote: »

No, the poor people are the people who don't have jobs and are scraping by or drowning. I'm earning a little bit over the average industrial wage, am married, and my wife works (and earns less than the average industrial wage), I also have a child, I pay childcare of a grand a week, so I'm in exactly the demographic you are referencing. I'm dreading having another kid. Also, lest this not be weird enough, my mother's a Community welfare officer, and regularly regales me with tales of people who really are up **** creek without a paddle. I feel sorry for me paying high tax, high rent, high childcare, high everything, but I feel sorrier for people whose lives have pretty much crashed around them.

Are you not totally contradicting yourself there.....Your dreading having another kid, having only had 1 thus far. Surely that shows hoe hard it is for a family earning average wages.
I know some people who use the CWO....they're not shy of laughing at what they get over and above the weekly handouts from time to time whilst drinking down the local.

Yes, there are some serious hard cases in poverty out there. But IMO, a large majority of those living off SW are doing allright in this country

Snakeblood

jay0109 wrote: »

Are you not totally contradicting yourself there.....Your dreading having another kid, having only had 1 thus far. Surely that shows hoe hard it is for a family earning average wages.
I know some people who use the CWO....they're not shy of laughing at what they get over and above the weekly handouts from time to time whilst drinking down the local.

Yes, there are some serious hard cases in poverty out there. But IMO, a large majority of those living off SW are doing allright in this country

Actually, that's a decent enough point. I was speaking generally, (but including money in the general speaking) about having more kids being a source of dread. Having 2 kids would be a much larger cost, but I'd still be able to afford it and save money/go on a holiday. It just wouldn't be as good.

The_Conductor

Snakeblood wrote: »

Actually, that's a decent enough point. I was speaking generally, (but including money in the general speaking) about having more kids being a source of dread. Having 2 kids would be a much larger cost, but I'd still be able to afford it and save money/go on a holiday. It just wouldn't be as good.

You're lucky. Most working people with 2 children- 100% definitely cannot afford to go away on holidays- or save money etc.

We've two- one of us works to pay the creche- the other the mortgage and the utility bills- somehow we muddle through smaller bills such as groceries- but periodic bills (car insurance/tax, doctors appointments, dentist, annual management charge (we live in a townhouse)- literally anything at all out of the ordinary)- throw us.

I don't regret the kiddies for a moment- but we are broke.

We both work in reasonable jobs on reasonable salaries- we have had a few pay cuts- and increases in taxes and other costs (our creche fees go up every year- we had hoped the pre-school year would make life a little easier from September- but its pretty much eaten up between the 2 of them, with this years increase in fees).

Having one child is expensive. Having 2- is a different proposition altogether- we don't really need holidays- as most of our annual leave is taken up with when they are sick and excluded from creche- or this week, when we're doing toilet training.

I do get jealous of those who have the luxury of staying at home and minding their own children- or those who have family support- we don't.

Cuddlesworth

gaius c wrote: »

Trouble is...do we know for sure that the relationship: QE up => unemployment% down?

Seems to be an overly simplistic analysis if you ask me.

Government policies are dictated by simplistic statistics.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

You're lucky. Most working people with 2 children- 100% definitely cannot afford to go away on holidays- or save money etc.

We've two- one of us works to pay the creche- the other the mortgage and the utility bills- somehow we muddle through smaller bills such as groceries- but periodic bills (car insurance/tax, doctors appointments, dentist, annual management charge (we live in a townhouse)- literally anything at all out of the ordinary)- throw us.

I don't regret the kiddies for a moment- but we are broke.

We both work in reasonable jobs on reasonable salaries- we have had a few pay cuts- and increases in taxes and other costs (our creche fees go up every year- we had hoped the pre-school year would make life a little easier from September- but its pretty much eaten up between the 2 of them, with this years increase in fees).

Having one child is expensive. Having 2- is a different proposition altogether- we don't really need holidays- as most of our annual leave is taken up with when they are sick and excluded from creche- or this week, when we're doing toilet training.

I do get jealous of those who have the luxury of staying at home and minding their own children- or those who have family support- we don't.

Pretty much sounds like my situation too. Hang on in there it gets better

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

cookie1977

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

It may be short lived according to some experts, considering the US economy is a lot stronger then the UK's at present:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-08/citigroup-sees-pound-rally-since-guidance-details-as-short-lived.html

For info for others:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cable.asp

uberalles

Snakeblood wrote: »

No, the poor people are the people who don't have jobs and are scraping by or drowning. I'm earning a little bit over the average industrial wage, am married, and my wife works (and earns less than the average industrial wage), I also have a child, I pay childcare of a grand a week, so I'm in exactly the demographic you are referencing. I'm dreading having another kid. Also, lest this not be weird enough, my mother's a Community welfare officer, and regularly regales me with tales of people who really are up **** creek without a paddle. I feel sorry for me paying high tax, high rent, high childcare, high everything, but I feel sorrier for people whose lives have pretty much crashed around them.

There are a sizable number of multi generational families who have never worked, never paid any taxes, and have large families. When they have more kids the parents can then can apply for a bigger house. No work expenses and they can be around all the times to raise kids.

I was speaking to a person who was doing stats for the CSO and she said that there are such familys getting 1000s PM. They are the "you breed them, we will feed them" brigade. Its darwinism on its head where the least successful couples have the most off spring. We have no maximum cap per household here, we really need one like the UK.

Compare Ireland to other countries where de social is on a sliding scale of about a year, (like Poland and lots of others) not a cradle to grave system we have here.

Its disgusting that a working couple are near the bread line if they go over one kid. The working middle classes are being milked, the new (exhausted) poor.

beeno67

uberalles wrote: »

There are a sizable number of multi generational families who have never worked, never paid any taxes, and have large families. .

How many? Source for your figures and links if possible.

cookie1977

uberalles wrote: »

I was speaking to a person who was doing stats for the CSO and she said that there are such familys getting 1000s PM. They are the "you breed them, we will feed them" brigade. Its darwinism on its head where the least successful couples have the most off spring. We have no maximum cap per household here, we really need one like the UK.

You know a lot of people and hear a lot of things:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85681127&postcount=581

I was talking to someone from Bank circles and they told me to hold off purchasing at the moment due to lots of repros on the way.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85668138&postcount=576

If you group all the LL together that are under water and average out all their properties, Its 5.
I know of one person who has 25!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85633683&postcount=564

1 in 4 UB mortgages are paying 0 Ive heard.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85523880&postcount=558

Ive heard a 2 bed apt had its rent increased by 200 euro PM in Sandyford recently. 200 PM !

uberalles

cookie1977 wrote: »

You know a lot of people and hear a lot of things:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85681127&postcount=581


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85668138&postcount=576


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85633683&postcount=564


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85523880&postcount=558

Im stating what Ive heard and some times my opinion. It doesnt mean Its wrong if I cant prove it.

cookie1977

I didn't say you were wrong I was just noting how much you hear. But clearly you've never heard of the saying; believe half of what you see and none of what you hear

beeno67

uberalles wrote: »

Im stating what Ive heard and some times my opinion. It doesnt mean Its wrong if I cant prove it.

Just back up your comment with some form of proof. Simples.

Lets start with what you mean by a sizeable number. Is that thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands?

uberalles

cookie1977 wrote: »

I didn't say you were wrong I was just noting how much you hear. But clearly you've never heard of the saying; believe half of what you see and none of what you hear

The CSO woman was speaking from her own experience.

Its true I speak to a lot of people.

cookie1977

uberalles wrote: »

There are a sizable number of multi generational families who have never worked, never paid any taxes, and have large families. When they have more kids the parents can then can apply for a bigger house. No work expenses and they can be around all the times to raise kids.

I was speaking to a person who was doing stats for the CSO and she said that there are such familys getting 1000s PM. They are the "you breed them, we will feed them" brigade. Its darwinism on its head where the least successful couples have the most off spring. We have no maximum cap per household here, we really need one like the UK.

Compare Ireland to other countries where de social is on a sliding scale of about a year, (like Poland and lots of others) not a cradle to grave system we have here.

Its disgusting that a working couple are near the bread line if they go over one kid. The working middle classes are being milked, the new (exhausted) poor.

Social welfare is on a sliding scale here too.
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/unemployed_people/jobseekers_benefit.html

The duration of Jobseeker's Benefit reduced by 3 months from 3 April 2013. For people with 260 or more PRSI contributions paid, it reduc from 12 months to 9 months. For people with fewer than 260 PRSI contributions paid, it reduced from 9 months to 6 months.

After that you have to apply for Job seekers allowance which is means tested:
http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/unemployed_people/jobseekers_allowance.html


Poland also has a "cradle to the grave" (your words) model (page 89 onwards).
http://www.zus.pl/pliki/ulotki/Ubezpieczenia%20spoleczne%20informacje%20fakty%20wer%20angielska.pdf
There is no mention of limits once you've met the qualifying criteria. Do you have a reference for your statement or did you hear that too?

strandroad

cookie1977 wrote: »

Poland also has a "cradle to the grave" (your words) model (page 89 onwards).
http://www.zus.pl/pliki/ulotki/Ubezpieczenia%20spoleczne%20informacje%20fakty%20wer%20angielska.pdf
There is no mention of limits once you've met the qualifying criteria. Do you have a reference for your statement or did you hear that too?

I believe it depends on the region but typically unemployment benefit is only offered for 6 months (12 months for persons over 50yo with more than 20 years of employment, or persons resident in high unemployment rate areas). After that what you get is some forms of direct provision (basic bills paid, food parcels etc) or small emergency payments.

cookie1977

Essentially there is cradle to the grave support for means tested qualifiers just like ireland:
http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/29736037.PDF

4. Social assistance
4.1 Conditions for receipt
To have insufficient means to live on (i.e., to satisfy the means test). They must not possess
agricultural land in excess of 2 ha.

5. Housing benefits
5.1 Conditions for receipt
Housing benefit is paid by local authorities to the low income household, to unemployed
families and to families on social assistance.

6. Family benefits
6.1 Conditions for receipt
The claimant must have a dependent child aged under 16, or under 20 if still in education.
A dependent wife aged over 50 or husband aged 65 also qualifies.

7. Child-care benefits
7.1 Conditions for receipt
To have at least one child needing care (that is, not yet schoolgoing age); a dependent wife
over 50; to be a pensioner over 65.

strandroad

Unemployment benefits are €150-240 per month while they last, other benefits are in proportion. Try to make a career out of it. Thy won't let you starve (but you may get rickets), that's all. There is no extra assistance for any person whose benefits run out, beyond basic food and shelter, often shared facilities. It's facetious to even try comparing it to the Irish system.

uberalles

mhge wrote: »

I believe it depends on the region but typically unemployment benefit is only offered for 6 months (12 months for persons over 50yo with more than 20 years of employment, or persons resident in high unemployment rate areas). After that what you get is some forms of direct provision (basic bills paid, food parcels etc) or small emergency payments.

+1

Ive spoked to Czech natives who say Ireland is a lot more favorable as well.
If you refuse two job offers you loose your Medical card as well as all your payments. Again the unemployment financial slide is way more rapid than Ireland.

On the flip side the Czechs have govt run subsidized creches so working couples can easily have more than one kid. This contrasts with the accidental China Ireland has become for so many hard working couples who really yearn for maybe just two kids but cant afford the creche fees.

cookie1977

mhge wrote: »

Unemployment benefits are €150-240 per month while they last, other benefits are in proportion. Try to make a career out of it. Thy won't let you starve (but you may get rickets), that's all. There is no extra assistance for any person whose benefits run out, beyond basic food and shelter, often shared facilities. It's facetious to even try comparing it to the Irish system.

Facetious? I'm not comparing it but it's wrong to say that unlike Ireland there is no life long support system in Poland. Happy to debate the merits of our system but let's not make things up just to suit our points. We could talk about the cost of living here V Poland if you like since you brought up numbers but that would be irrelevant.

cookie1977

Oh on that last line I was being facetious.

strandroad

cookie1977 wrote: »

Facetious? I'm not comparing it but it's wrong to say that unlike Ireland there is no life long support system in Poland. Happy to debate the merits of our system but let's not make things up just to suit our points.

The point was that it's feasible for multigenerational non-working families to exist comfortably under the Irish system, while sliding scales in other countries prevent that.

cookie1977 wrote: »

We could talk about the cost of living here V Poland if you like since you brought up numbers but that would be irrelevant.

You'd be surprised how similar these costs are now, apart from property and services perhaps...

cookie1977

mhge wrote: »

The point was that it's feasible for multigenerational non-working families to exist comfortably under the Irish system, while sliding scales in other countries prevent that.

These families are few and far between and by no means make up a large majority on welfare in Ireland. Yes our system might be too generous but I see that this occurred during the boom were we raised social welfare payments to very high levels thus essentially raising costs too. Once the recession came along and people lost their jobs and ended up on social welfare it was too late to dramatically reduce welfare payments as we'd punish these people. Now it's talking time between cutting the payments and waiting for costs to fall.

If you have such a high earnings at the bottom of the country then costs will rise to meet that but when you try to adjust these payments significantly then costs don't adjust as quickly.

Essentially what I'm saying is we shouldn't have raised social welfare payments by so much during the boom and now we've got to adjust them slowly back (or certainly not raise them again) until they're back at a level that supports the unemployed but does not trap them.

El_Dangeroso

This thread has gone annoyingly off-topic.

cookie1977

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

This thread has gone annoyingly off-topic.

We're awaiting the glut

cookie1977

Sound familiar?
Buy-to-let fuels house price boom

http://gu.com/p/3hqkm

Britain's buy-to-let mortgage market has surged to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crash, prompting fears that a prolonged period of cheap money is setting off an unsustainable housing boom.

More than one in 10 mortgages are now being handed to a would-be landlord while first-time buyers are still struggling to get on the housing ladder.

jmayo

uberalles wrote: »

There are a sizable number of multi generational families who have never worked, never paid any taxes, and have large families. When they have more kids the parents can then can apply for a bigger house. No work expenses and they can be around all the times to raise kids.

I was speaking to a person who was doing stats for the CSO and she said that there are such familys getting 1000s PM. They are the "you breed them, we will feed them" brigade. Its darwinism on its head where the least successful couples have the most off spring. We have no maximum cap per household here, we really need one like the UK.

Compare Ireland to other countries where de social is on a sliding scale of about a year, (like Poland and lots of others) not a cradle to grave system we have here.

Its disgusting that a working couple are near the bread line if they go over one kid. The working middle classes are being milked, the new (exhausted) poor.

beeno67 wrote: »

How many? Source for your figures and links if possible.

Even if it is only a 1000, that is a 1000 too many whereas on the other hand there are a multiple 1000s of families who are working and being crucified with childcare costs and are not receiving handouts for this, that and the other.

And if you want to see these mulit generational spongers then visit certain notorious neighbourhoods in the likes of Dublin, Limerick, Galway or for that matter little enclaves in every town throughout the country, where it is patently obvious that there is an ingrained culture of this type of behaviour.

I once shared for a while with a young girl from a pretty notorious neighbourhood in Limerick.
One night she mentioned how in her area she was one of the few of her age group who was actually working and childless.
Most of here neighbours and old school friends were as she put it "pushing buggies" and getting unmarried single mother allowances.
Ok that is anecdotal and I didn't ask here for precise figures and breakdowns, but I bet if you went back today you would find most of the girls are exactly the same.

All I see in the last few posts is how some posters are basically targetting the messanger because they don't appear to like the message.
One can try and argue that uberalles is exaggerating the situation, but there is no damm way one can argue it aint happening and indeed has been happening for decades at this stage.

cookie1977

jmayo wrote: »

All I see in the last few posts is how some posters are basically targetting the messanger because they don't appear to like the message.
One can try and argue that uberalles is exaggerating the situation, but there is no damm way one can argue it aint happening and indeed has been happening for decades at this stage.

Where were you before? Look back over this entire thread. There has been plenty of times where your above statement could be said by people who disagree with you. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. If you're going to speak about controversial things that you've "heard" then you're going to have to expect that you'll be asked to provide some sort of proof. Otherwise it may just as easily be you making things up just to make your point.