Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

stevedublin

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

If I were a betting lady, I'd expect the most bullish of the housing market are in for a short, sharp reality check.

Not until early next year imho. I think there are a few months left in this bull trap.

The Spider

stevedublin wrote: »

Not until early next year imho. I think there are a few months left in this bull trap.

Keep dreaming, this is simple, it's supply and demand, low supply and increased demand = higher prices. Where is the extra supply of good 3-4 bed family homes going to come from? We know about apartments, and families don't want to live in them.

The flip side of this is that because of redundancies etc outside of Dublin, you have a lot of inward migration to Dublin, with people getting jobs etc, that's another increase in the demand for houses. Of course if the economy completely recovers then a lot of people will stay where they are,, but then prices will increase in other areas of the country.

gurramok

Just checked, MyHome seems to have more Dublin property for sale than Daft today.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale

MyHome = 3,565
Daft = 3,163

Is this Daft losing market share of the advertising market for property sales?

strandroad

gurramok wrote: »

Just checked, MyHome seems to have more Dublin property for sale than Daft today.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale

MyHome = 3,565
Daft = 3,163

Is this Daft losing market share of the advertising market for property sales?

Daft always had only a subset of what myhome had in terms of sales, but nearly a monopoly in lettings.

Woodville56

I've heard that Daft get more rural properties for sale than Myhome , yet in our search in the west, we found Myhome had properties not listed on Daft and some properties on both sites with different asking prices ???

who_ru

perhaps the strategy from the outset from Irish banks was to kill credit supply to developers, particularly those in Dublin, which in turn kills new supply of homes to the housing market thereby creating another price spike to their own advantage.

they have also point blank refused to recognise any more losses for fear of going under. So 1000s of people in arrears all over the country get to remain in properties they clearly cannot afford and cannot pay for. But they get to remain in them nonetheless. One wonders why anybody anywhere would continue to pay their mortgage under these circumstances.

but the strange bit is that the banks have also killed credit supply to FTBs. Leaving cash buyers to account for anything up to 40% of all transactions.

The Spider

who_ru wrote: »

perhaps the strategy from the outset from Irish banks was to kill credit supply to developers, particularly those in Dublin, which in turn kills new supply of homes to the housing market thereby creating another price spike to their own advantage.

they have also point blank refused to recognise any more losses for fear of going under. So 1000s of people in arrears all over the country get to remain in properties they clearly cannot afford and cannot pay for. But they get to remain in them nonetheless. One wonders why anybody anywhere would continue to pay their mortgage under these circumstances.

but the strange bit is that the banks have also killed credit supply to FTBs. Leaving cash buyers to account for anything up to 40% of all transactions.

Nah, absolute nonsense, I was a FTB last year over the age of 37 and still got a mortgage on my own, absolutely no problems, what they've stopped doing is giving 100 percent mortgages, and mortgages to anybody who is in casual employment.

Professionals should have no problem whatsoever getting a mortgage, (provided they're debt free and have decent credit history of course).

who_ru

The Spider wrote: »

Nah, absolute nonsense, I was a FTB last year over the age of 37 and still got a mortgage on my own, absolutely no problems, what they've stopped doing is giving 100 percent mortgages, and mortgages to anybody who is in casual employment.

Professionals should have no problem whatsoever getting a mortgage, (provided they're debt free and have decent credit history of course).

The Spider

who_ru wrote: »

Seems sensible to me, and yet house prices continue to rise......

zl1whqvjs75cdy

House prices in some areas continue to rise. Where are all the cash buyers coming from? Surely there aren't that many people with a couple of hundred thousand stuffed into the mattress? How long can these people keep the market afloat? Without credit house prices will never increase substantially as your average joe does not have the cash on hand to buy a house. Or a least that's my take anyway.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Seems sensible to me, and yet house prices continue to rise......

You sound like these guys
http://www.wilsonmoore.ie/residential/brochure/2527464

******PRICE REDUCTION******

**The property market is improving and prices are increasing! Dont miss this opportunityto purchase a surperb home and excellent investment for the future!*

Note the irony in the advert, a price reduction on top and claims of price rises on the next line

cookie1977

gurramok wrote: »

You sound like these guys
http://www.wilsonmoore.ie/residential/brochure/2527464


Note the irony in the advert, a price reduction on top and claims of price rises on the next line

That link (and any versions of it) is dead for me.

The_Conductor

cookie1977 wrote: »

That link (and any versions of it) is dead for me.

Working just fine here. Maybe clean out your internet cache?

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Working just fine here. Maybe clean out your internet cache?

Tried that, didn't work. Weird as downforeveryonenotjustme is reporting it down too:
http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/wilsonmoore.ie

The_Conductor

I've tried a few times- no issues accessing it whatsoever.
I don't know. I'm fiddling around their website now in a different tab- no issues at all.
I'm using Firefox btw

cookie1977

It's weird. I got it working on my vodafone data but it won't connect on my UPC connection.

gurramok

cookie1977 wrote: »

It's weird. I got it working on my vodafone data but it won't connect on my UPC connection.

I'm on UPC and it works fine in both FF and Chrome.

stevedublin

you need to type www.wilsonmoore.ie.
wilsonmoore.ie does not work

Balmed Out

on eircom and not working for me

The_Conductor

UPC- and its not working this morning.......
Lets move on- we're getting hung up over something of only peripheral interest.

cookie1977

Ok, it's good for some and not for others but we'll survive. I think the company is crackers and the fact it cant get its DNS settings correct just proves it's one to avoid

That aside and to get us back on topic there was an interesting article in the donegal democrat this week.
http://www.donegaldemocrat.ie/news/donegal-news/questioning-the-truth-of-strategic-default-1-5398183

A Mabs official has suggested that reports of “strategic defaulters” are intended to get people accustomed to the idea of home repossessions.

“Nobody has produced figures or even a definition of what is a strategic defaulter,” Michael Culloty, national social policy and communications officer at Money Advice and Budgeting Service (Mabs), told the Democrat. “If there isn’t a definition, how can people decide what a defaulter is?

“Is strategic someone suffering from deep depression from what has happened to them when they lost control of their finances and other parts of their life?” Mr. Culloty asked. He said people have come to Mabs with letters from creditors unopened, “because of their mental state they lack the energy to do that”.

Certainly it's from one side of the argument but it does have some merits. It is in the banks interests to create this boogie man of huge proportions to calm people in advance of repossessions. Yes we can always find examples as in that article (and even that example is a nice boogie man in the form of a company director etc...). It reminds me of the "precise number of communists in the defence department" in the 1962 film, The Manchurian Candidate.

This really points towards the real need for official stats or full investigations into the numbers of strategic defaulters and to go after them all. The fact is the bank do not care about strategic or non strategic. They want to go after the property that is in arrears and from which they can garnish the most return. If (and I know this isn't the case) say all the property in arrears from non strategic defaulters offered a healthy return following repossession/sale over the strategic defaulters arrears, the banks would still be spouting the strategic defaulter boogie man numbers while not doing a thing about them. Yes of course their are strategic defaulters but lets get the numbers and get them punished in some way.

roro2

July property price data from CSO today:

Prices +1.2% in the month, same as June, again the largest increase since 2006. Prices +2.8% in the past three months and the annual rate of change is now +2.3%.

Properties in Dublin +3.3% in the month, the biggest monthly increase since the data began in 2005. Prices +5.1% in the past two months alone, the annual rate of increase now at +8.0% in July. Following three months of increases prices for properties outside of Dublin fell by 0.1% in the month and the annual rate of change is -1.5%. Property prices have increased in 9/15 months since May 2012.

cookie1977

Here's some stats from the IBF from 2005-Q2 2013

http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_Statistics/IBF-PwC_Mortgage_Market_Profile_Times_Series_Q2_2013.sflb.ashx

Total mortgages drawn down in 2005: 201,260
Total Mortgages drawn down by Q2 2013: 5,297

2013 as a percentage of 2005 = 2.6%

And people think things might be on the up? It's going to take quite a few more quarters to determine that to be honest.

gurramok

roro2 wrote: »

July property price data from CSO today:

Property prices have increased in 9/15 months since May 2012.

Where did you get this from? http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_jul2013.pdf

Since May 2012(dunno why you picked this date)

Its 6 down, 8 up nationally

Its 7 down, 7 up for all Dublin

Its 7 down, 7 up and 1 static for Dublin houses

Its 6 down, 8 up for Dublin apartments

gurramok

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-lender-to-shake-up-mortgage-market-29511750.html

Despite banks' promises of more mortgage lending, the latest figures show that 550 fewer mortgages were issued in the first six months of this year compared with the same period last year.

But only 5,297 mortgages were issued in the first half of the year – half of what experts said was needed to meet demand.

The average mortgage being taken out is €160,300, down slightly from last year. This compares with first-time buyer loans averaging around €240,000 during the boom.

"The level of lending is still only a fraction of what it should be to support a 'normal' property economy. Realistically, we would like to see greater competition in the market, volumes hitting at least €5bn per annum which is about double the current levels."

What appears to me is that there is a pool of buyers transferring their cash into property either through full cash transactions or part cash\part mortgage transactions and you can safely say the part cash type is quite big judging by the demand for expensive SCD property.

Savings interest rates are quite low at the moment and with rental returns quite good in high demand areas, who can blame them? When savings rates start rising to beat rental returns plus when we run out of cash rich buyers then that bounce will drop!

jay0109

Could be a while before cash buyers run out....people have being sitting back since 2008
And by the time cash buyers run out, the whole market may have gone far enough to survive without them

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

gaius c

jay0109 wrote: »

Could be a while before cash buyers run out....people have being sitting back since 2008
And by the time cash buyers run out, the whole market may have gone far enough to survive without them

2008? People have been waiting a lot longer than that.

Cuddlesworth

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

She isn't paying full mortgage repayments on 6 property's. Lets say max of 40k a year down on roughly 2 to 3 million in repayments but backed against 1 or 1.5 mil worth of property.

They repossess all the property and sell it. They loose circa 50% of the value of the mortgages, 500 to 750 thousand which is written down as a loss with no asset backing. That's a serious drop in earnings, even for a bank. Plus the manpower and work involved in it. But the bank has borrowed money in order to loan out to her. So it is still costing them at a low interest rate to pay back this debt.

Now multiply that by a safe estimate of a thousand people who are well in over their heads. That could head up into a billion. Where is that money going to come from?

The banks not repossessing is simply head in the sand tactics to a huge problem. And it turns out from recent press reports that foreign banks just dropped their loan book and ran, something Irish banks can't do.

roro2

gurramok wrote: »

Where did you get this from? http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_jul2013.pdf

Since May 2012(dunno why you picked this date)

Its 6 down, 8 up nationally

Its 7 down, 7 up for all Dublin

Its 7 down, 7 up and 1 static for Dublin houses

Its 6 down, 8 up for Dublin apartments

May 2012 - the first monthly price increase in 5 years. 9 increases and 6 decreases from this date, a cumulative increase of 1.4%. Pick another subsection or timeframe if you prefer.