Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

handlemaster

jay0109 wrote: »

here's some more middle ireland for you
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/mum-of-four-ordered-to-leave-700000-home-in-loan-row-29537775.html

Not paid a penny on the mortgage of an expensive red brick in D6 since 2010, despite her partner having a job and what appears to be tenants sharing the house.
Seems to have being sending kids to an expensive private school, though not paying the fees as they're chasing her now also.

And the Judge throws her another 6 months in the gaff

foolish on her behalf if she worked with the bank she would still benin her nice house. nkw the kids will have to move etc

Villa05

Defaulting Landlady forcibly evicts tenants and changes the locks because they co-operated with the receivers
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/dalkey-housewife-forcibly-removed-tenants-from-house-high-court-told-1.1511280

and they have the cheek to compare themselves to the plight of tenants during the famine.

Bob24

Villa05 wrote: »

Defaulting Landlady forcibly evicts tenants and changes the locks because they co-operated with the receivers
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/dalkey-housewife-forcibly-removed-tenants-from-house-high-court-told-1.1511280

Madness!

Villa05

Owner??? of stud farm using violence against low paid security guards to retake his stud farm. What a hero!!!?????

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/08/31/taking-it-back/

So low paid workers who have been worst effected by tax increases and cutbacks are assaulted by greedy property speculators. After the assault, they expect the low paid security guard to pay higher taxes so that they can continue enjoy the tax free fruits of the Stud farm.

Property speculators then have the cheek to make comparisons with the famine/Land League and their situation

Villa05

Interesting data from the latest emigration stats

Another striking element is the age profile of the typical emigrant. While the number of people emigrating from the 15-to-24-year-old age group has remained fairly static at around 35,000 over the last three years, the number aged 25 to 44 has increased dramatically, from 31,300 in 2011 to 41,000 last year

Could out of work families be walking away from this economy and their mortgages? If one worked in construction and their is plenty of work abroad and nothing here but large debts.
It seems a very rational decision to start all over in a foreign land.

Bob24

Villa05 wrote: »

Owner??? of stud farm using violence against low paid security guards to retake his stud farm. What a hero!!!?????

Why a guy like this can get any kind of support from the public is beyond me ...

Scortho

Bob24 wrote: »

Why a guy like this can get any kind of support from the public is beyond me ...

Because joe soap thinks that he'll get the same treatment and stop paying his as well.
He fails to realise though that for this to happen his taxes would have to rise significantly higher than what they are now.
I'd like to see the following question asked to the people advocating a write down :"we'll put an extra 0 on the end of your property tax, just to help your next door neighbour keep his house that he can't afford".
Something tells me very few would support this.

Scortho

That stud farm is 550 acres.
It's Kildare as well so it's prime agricultural land so 10000 an acre?

Do people not realise that if you borrow money and use an asset as security, that that asset can be liquidated if you default on the repayments.
Next hell claim that the bank forced him to take the money.

Scortho

jay0109 wrote: »

here's some more middle ireland for you
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/mum-of-four-ordered-to-leave-700000-home-in-loan-row-29537775.html

Not paid a penny on the mortgage of an expensive red brick in D6 since 2010, despite her partner having a job and what appears to be tenants sharing the house.
Seems to have being sending kids to an expensive private school, though not paying the fees as they're chasing her now also.

And the Judge throws her another 6 months in the gaff

She's on sw since 2004! :eek:

So she's saying that she wasn't able to find employment at the height of the boom?

The_Conductor

Scortho wrote: »

She's on sw since 2004! :eek:

So she's saying that she wasn't able to find employment at the height of the boom?

She had young kids- so she had no interest in looking for employment (a major issue in the country is the lack of affordable childcare).

A big issue here- and one which is screaming out at me- this is an investment property- she got a mortgage as an investor and was to use the rent to pay the mortgage. She moved into it herself at some stage- instead of doing this- and her PPR somewhere else- is vacant and getting dilapidated. Aka- she saw the investment property as superior to her PPR- and decided to abandon her part of the equation and move her and her boyfriends into the property.

I like Rathmines, and certainly wouldn't mind living there- but really, this woman took the piss- and can't be trusted as far as you can throw her.

She has somewhere else to live- apparently she never divested herself of house number 1- so she can damn well sod off back where-ever she came from, and fend for herself.

Cuddlesworth

Villa05 wrote: »

Owner??? of stud farm using violence against low paid security guards to retake his stud farm. What a hero!!!?????

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/08/31/taking-it-back/

So low paid workers who have been worst effected by tax increases and cutbacks are assaulted by greedy property speculators. After the assault, they expect the low paid security guard to pay higher taxes so that they can continue enjoy the tax free fruits of the Stud farm.

Property speculators then have the cheek to make comparisons with the famine/Land League and their situation

Occasionally you see what happens afterwards in another news story, its always hilarious. Only one end to that action.

uberalles

Villa05 wrote: »

Owner??? of stud farm using violence against low paid security guards to retake his stud farm. What a hero!!!?????

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/08/31/taking-it-back/

So low paid workers who have been worst effected by tax increases and cutbacks are assaulted by greedy property speculators. After the assault, they expect the low paid security guard to pay higher taxes so that they can continue enjoy the tax free fruits of the Stud farm.

Property speculators then have the cheek to make comparisons with the famine/Land League and their situation

SOS - Save Our Stud farm ! Ah bless.

gaius c

Villa05 wrote: »

Defaulting Landlady forcibly evicts tenants and changes the locks because they co-operated with the receivers
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/dalkey-housewife-forcibly-removed-tenants-from-house-high-court-told-1.1511280

and they have the cheek to compare themselves to the plight of tenants during the famine.

And what's the best bit? Scroll down to the 2nd last paragraph to see who was advising her. Seems that Jerry doesn't mind eviction if it's only tenants.

techdiver

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0904/472071-oireachtas-finance-committee/

Ulster Bank chief executive Jim Brown has said that 35% of the bank's customers who are in arrears are not engaging with the bank or are not making any payments.

Jim Brown, addressing an Oireachtas Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, also said that the bank does not have a policy of writing off mortgage debt.

Mr Brown said that people deliberately deciding not to pay their mortgages is ''not fair'', adding that the correlation between unemployment and arrears in the Republic broke down in 2011 unlike the situation in the North of Ireland.

Scortho

The_Conductor wrote: »

She had young kids- so she had no interest in looking for employment (a major issue in the country is the lack of affordable childcare).

A big issue here- and one which is screaming out at me- this is an investment property- she got a mortgage as an investor and was to use the rent to pay the mortgage. She moved into it herself at some stage- instead of doing this- and her PPR somewhere else- is vacant and getting dilapidated. Aka- she saw the investment property as superior to her PPR- and decided to abandon her part of the equation and move her and her boyfriends into the property.

I like Rathmines, and certainly wouldn't mind living there- but really, this woman took the piss- and can't be trusted as far as you can throw her.

She has somewhere else to live- apparently she never divested herself of house number 1- so she can damn well sod off back where-ever she came from, and fend for herself.

If you're on social welfare, surely you should be actively seeking a job.
It's not called sitting at home allowance minding your children is it?

cookie1977

techdiver wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0904/472071-oireachtas-finance-committee/

While I have absolutely no doubt there are a lot in arrears are not engaging but someone has to ask why this is the case and not simple blame the customer. While previously the law surrounding repossession was too in favour of the person in arrears the new laws have given the banks have excessive powers. He said that 35% are not engaging or not paying anything. Why not give us the breakdown of what each of those stats is rather than lumping them together. Another point I'd raise is that if someone did initially engage but then found any offer of help was too low or inadequate they then might withdraw from engaging especially as the appeals process is long and tedious.

Surely we're not back at the point were we believe everything bank managers have to say?

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

While I have absolutely no doubt there are a lot in arrears are not engaging but someone has to ask why this is the case and not simple blame the customer. While previously the law surrounding repossession was too in favour of the person in arrears the new laws have given the banks have excessive powers. He said that 35% are not engaging or not paying anything. Why not give us the breakdown of what each of those stats is rather than lumping them together. Another point I'd raise is that if someone did initially engage but then found any offer of help was too low or inadequate they then might withdraw from engaging especially as the appeals process is long and tedious.

Surely we're not back at the point were we believe everything bank managers have to say?

I would tend to believe them more that the people who are pretending they don't have enough money to service their mortgages.

Villa05

PTSB

25,000 in arrears of greater than 90 Days
As of end of March 2013 6,650 have had resolution/offers

1,600 Legal action taken (24%)
800** Assisted Voluntary Sale (forced to work with the bank to try to sell the property) (12%)
1500 Short term Solution 22%
2,750 Long term solution 41%

** As of September the assisted voluntary sale figure has increased to 2,000 out of 10,000 mortgages "resolved" (20%)

www.independent.ie/irish-news/number-of-homes-surrendered-doubles-29555784.html

Fairly grim reading considering PTSB were the tracker mortgage Kings, so many would have been protected from rising interest rates that others have to endure

Shane O'Sullivan, chief of the bank's asset management unit, revealed 2,000 customers had given up their homes by the start of September - up from 800 in the first quarter of the year.

"There are cases when no matter what way we look there isn't a solution," Mr O'Sullivan said.
"In these cases, we do arrive at a decision around the assisted voluntary sale.

"We have a legacy book of customers who for many years have been on a revolving moratorium.

"Some have not been able to pay for a great number of years and we have worked with those customers to provide forbearance over those years."

He told the Oireachtas Finance Committee that PTSB officials had surpassed a Central Bank target to offer one-fifth of distressed borrowers a sustainable solution.

Selling up is deemed by the bank to be a long-term solution.

Villa05

Comments from PTSB would suggest that repossesion or assisted sale is much more likely for a residential mortgage than a BTL.

They state that Long term interest only is not a solution for Residential but is a solution for BTL

www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A20432997%3A15036%3A%3A

The_Conductor

They appear to classify it as a 'Longterm Mortgage Solution'.
Someone in there must have been a fan of Kafka.

Villa05

The realisation that there is no magic money tree begins to set in

The regulator’s targets have forced the banks to face up to the mortgage arrears problem, which has festered since 2008. That’s what we all have wanted for some time. The unfortunate but inevitable outcome of this is the reality that thousands of mortgage-holders will have to leave their home, either by way of assisted voluntary sale or repossession.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/tds-and-senators-get-reality-check-on-mortgage-arrears-1.1517799?page=1

Cuddlesworth

Villa05 wrote: »

The realisation that there is no magic money tree begins to set in

Really? I would have said the tone of the article was quite the opposite for everybody but the banks.

TDs and senators argue that this does not have to be the case, that the banks could write off debt and allow people to remain in their family homes by using the capital provided by taxpayers exactly for this purpose.

The_Conductor

The TDs and Senators seem to have this notion that we have handed over sufficient money to the banks and other lenders- to allow them right off debt, and allow people keep houses they can't afford. There is no cognisance of the new liquidity rules that the selfsame TDs and Senators have signed up- and how writing off debt left right and centre would torpedo the balance sheets of the lenders- necessitating another re-capitalisation programme. Richie Boucher of BOI spelt this out in plain and simple terms- and said quite simply, debt write-off is not on BOI's agenda, as it would necessitate BOI going back to its shareholders for more funds (the Irish government own 15% of BOI- its the only major lender to have managed to remain outside of state control- largely because they were more prudent than their peers (though obviously not prudent enough)).

So- if people want debt write-downs, there has to be acceptance of further cuts to public spending including all welfare payments, alongside commensurate increases in taxation for those lucky enough to have jobs.

There is no magic money tree- there is a poor exhausted taxpayer lying bruised and battered on the ground- sick of having given so much of his or her life's blood to a country that doesn't give a damn.

Snakeblood

The_Conductor wrote: »

The TDs and Senators seem to have this notion that we have handed over sufficient money to the banks and other lenders- to allow them right off debt, and allow people keep houses they can't afford. There is no cognisance of the new liquidity rules that the selfsame TDs and Senators have signed up- and how writing off debt left right and centre would torpedo the balance sheets of the lenders- necessitating another re-capitalisation programme. Richie Boucher of BOI spelt this out in plain and simple terms- and said quite simply, debt write-off is not on BOI's agenda, as it would necessitate BOI going back to its shareholders for more funds (the Irish government own 15% of BOI- its the only major lender to have managed to remain outside of state control- largely because they were more prudent than their peers (though obviously not prudent enough)).

So- if people want debt write-downs, there has to be acceptance of further cuts to public spending including all welfare payments, alongside commensurate increases in taxation for those lucky enough to have jobs.

There is no magic money tree- there is a poor exhausted taxpayer lying bruised and battered on the ground- sick of having given so much of his or her life's blood to a country that doesn't give a damn.

They know well there's no magic money tree, but they can't admit it, because as long as they pretend there is, they won't have to come up with something other than shouting about stopping repossessions, and they can't come up with a solution because there isn't one.

The_Conductor

Pointing the stick and shouting- appealing to the lowest common denominator- and getting people's hopes up that there will be a magic bailout for the little people? Sigh....... Why do we put up with this crap.

riclad

Program on rte radio yesterday,
said the banks are hoping for an economic recovery, houses prices will go up,
they have 1000 repossessed houses for sale.
eg if they wait long enough their losses will be reduced .
WHO knows alot of people might go for personal insolvency
and give the keys back to the bank.
say If i have a loan for 200k,

i,m paying interest only,house is worth 100k,
IS there any point in the bank taking the house back ,
it,ll cost them maybe 5k to sell it,
eg they get 95k.
eg if my income goes up in 4 years time ,ill increase my loan payments.

i don,t have a mortgage ,
i,m just asking a question.

The banks seem to treat every borrower differently , as a unique case .

I don,t think the banks want to be trying to sell 20 thousand houses at once,

it might causes prices to fall even further .

Villa05

riclad wrote: »

Program on rte radio yesterday,
said the banks are hoping for an economic recovery, houses prices will go up, they have 1000 repossessed houses for sale.
eg if they wait long enough their losses will be reduced .
WHO knows alot of people might go for personal insolvency
and give the keys back to the bank.

Waiting is a double edged sword
Interest rates are at record lows and only going one way from here.
At least 2 more Austerity Budgets, I predict many more.
New employment is at much reduced wages/hours in the majority of sectors.
Emigration, Unemployment and reduced wages affect First Time buyers cohort more so than anyone else as they at early stage career level.
Mortgage Lending remains at record lows.
Cash Buyers dominating the current market, This cash will run out

World Economy very fragile,
Unrest in the Middle East (Oil prices likely to rise)
Most Western Economies are highly indebted, especially our main trading partners. Little scope for stimulus.

Risk of a further downturn far outweighs any "hopes" of a recovery

The banks have been waiting for the past 5 years to start acting on this crisis. This has caused the situation to get out of control and has pushed some to strategically default.

I had been keeping an eye on a house close to me being sold by the bank, It's been on the market for over 18 months, It only dropped to market clearing price in the last few weeks, will it sell? I doubt it, why would I buy a bank property with all the hassle and costs that entails. I can buy a house with all the services still connected, a smooth sale process and a house in walk in condition from a private seller for the same price.

Villa05

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Really? I would have said the tone of the article was quite the opposite for everybody but the banks.

TDs and senators argue that this does not have to be the case, that the banks could write off debt and allow people to remain in their family homes by using the capital provided by taxpayers exactly for this purpose.

TD's and Senators are only talkers not doers. If you want them to get a medical card for your mother, sure, go ahead, Don't expect them to sort complex problems that many of them created

OMD

Villa05 wrote: »

Waiting is a double edged sword
Interest rates are at record lows and only going one way from here.
At least 2 more Austerity Budgets, I predict many more.
New employment is at much reduced wages/hours in the majority of sectors.
Emigration, Unemployment and reduced wages affect First Time buyers cohort more so than anyone else as they at early stage career level.
Mortgage Lending remains at record lows.
Cash Buyers dominating the current market, This cash will run out

World Economy very fragile,
Unrest in the Middle East (Oil prices likely to rise)
Most Western Economies are highly indebted, especially our main trading partners. Little scope for stimulus.

But employment is rising not falling.
Weekly hours and wages are rising not falling.
Interest rates are at record lows so of course almost certainly the next move is up. However rates will probably stay at this record low level for 2 more years and the rise very slowly. It would be reasonable to bet that interest rates will still be below 3% in 5 years time but no one knows for certain obviously.

Villa05

OMD wrote: »

But employment is rising not falling.
Weekly hours and wages are rising not falling.
Interest rates are at record lows so of course almost certainly the next move is up. However rates will probably stay at this record low level for 2 more years and the rise very slowly. It would be reasonable to bet that interest rates will still be below 3% in 5 years time but no one knows for certain obviously.

It is whats happening at the First time buyer demographic that matters.
The long term unemployed figures are falling a little, it would suggest that any new jobs are going to the experienced older unemployed people.
New Jobs in the public sector are rare, most likely temporary and at lower salary levels. Outside of the exporting companies, the same trend is happening in the private sector. Below Inflation Wage increases and new jobs are going to people who have already been burned by property

Mortgage Interest rates have been rising for the last 3 years, while the ECB rate has been falling. I don't see that changing until the Banks return to significant profitability. The mortgage arrears crisis will probably send 1 or 2 of those banks back into bailout territory, while Ulster Bank will probably wave goodbye.

The State, already paying 20% of its all tax income on the interest on its loans will have to foot yet another bill, meaning tax rises and spending cuts for all and the cycle continues

Unfortunately mortgages are not paid back in 3 or 5 years, the average rate for the duration of the mortgage determines the cost of credit.
There is a property bubble emerging in Germany and you can bet your house that they won't make the same mistakes as us, Expect Rate rises to control demand