Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

cookie1977

gaius c wrote: »

Transcript (complements of Alderman on p.ie)


The PIP guy has registered to respond in person there. Whatever you might think of his views, that's a rather brave move to make.

^^^^^
That is truly insane. It was the same on live line yesterday. A guy wanted to sue the banks for giving him too much money.

http://podcast.rasset.ie/podcasts/audio/2013/0909/20130909_rteradio1-liveline-bankshomeo_c20434628_20435181_232_.mp3

How about taking some modicum of personal responsibility

Potatoeman

cookie1977 wrote: »

^^^^^
That is truly insane. It was the same on live line yesterday. A guy wanted to sue the banks for giving him too much money.

http://podcast.rasset.ie/podcasts/audio/2013/0909/20130909_rteradio1-liveline-bankshomeo_c20434628_20435181_232_.mp3

How about taking some modicum of personal responsibility

He admits to lying on his loan application which was fine when he was going to make money but as soon as the asset is worth less he wants to blame them.

The_Conductor

Another Irish attribute (not unique- something we learnt from our US cousins)- we refuse to acknowledge or accept responsibility for our own actions. Someone else is always to blame.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Another Irish attribute (not unique- something we learnt from our US cousins)- we refuse to acknowledge or accept responsibility for our own actions. Someone else is always to blame.

To be honest I'd actually say it's not an Irish trait per say. I think in general the majority of us want to pack back all debts we owe. I dont think he typifies the common Irish person.

Potatoeman

cookie1977 wrote: »

To be honest I'd actually say it's not an Irish trait per say. I think in general the majority of us want to pack back all debts we owe. I dont think he typifies the common Irish person.

The worse thing about people like this is that they admit they lied on their application but still blame the bank. By signing the contract they agreed to the terms.

cookie1977

Potatoeman wrote: »

The worse thing about people like this is that they admit they lied on their application but still blame the bank. By signing the contract they agreed to the terms.

But even in the conversation on the podcast he does realise how ridiculous his claim is. He's just hoping people will agree with him which the radio host refuses to.

uberalles

Im not certain about the exact stats but Ihear ....

A functioning market has approx 3% of stock for sale.
Dublin has approx 1% as we speak

I was diving near clonskeagh today and there were "sale agreed" signs everywhere.

When can we have a real normal recession?
Is supply ever going to be normal supply here or will repros be drip fed to keep prices high ?

Despair from a FTB. Is there any point waiting for another few months here?
Im thinking of emigrating at this stage as I refuse to pay top dollar for the kips on offer.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Duckjob

Potatoeman wrote: »

He admits to lying on his loan application which was fine when he was going to make money but as soon as the asset is worth less he wants to blame them.

Sickening. I'm fed up to the back teeth with these guys bleating on about the banks "giving" them too much money. Time for people to GROW THE F___ UP and accept that they got themselves into a ridiculous situation.

Fair play to the host - he wasn't having any of it. If it was Joe I'm sure he'd have the guys back - "it was all the banks fault" etc etc.

Potatoeman

Duckjob wrote: »

Sickening. I'm fed up to the back teeth with these guys bleating on about the banks "giving" them too much money. Time for people to GROW THE F___ UP and accept that they got themselves into a ridiculous situation.

Fair play to the host - he wasn't having any of it. If it was Joe I'm sure he'd have the guys back - "it was all the banks fault" etc etc.

Some people refuse to admit that they were dealing with a sales person and as they sign the contract they are responsible for any profit or loss. Its like going into a car dealership and buying a porsche you cant afford and blaming the salesperson. I dont think he would be sharing any profits made either.

Duckjob

Potatoeman wrote: »

Some people refuse to admit that they were dealing with a sales person and as they sign the contract they are responsible for any profit or loss. Its like going into a car dealership and buying a porsche you cant afford and blaming the salesperson. I dont think he would be sharing any profits made either.

Indeed. We certainly didnt hear any enqueries from these guys on how they could share out their good fortunes from their land grabbing with everyone else during the boom years. PRIVATISE MY PROFITS and SOCIALISE MY LOSSES. They can feck right off.

I should declare a position here. I spent time through the boom years trying to buy a family home - going to view the property and being in a room full of people like this bozo, and losing out everytime because we refused to bid more than WE knew WE could comfortably afford to pay back.

In my ideal world, not only should these guys be on the hook for all their debts, but those that fraudulently got credit should be forced to contribute to a fund to help out people in genuine hardship - i.e. the people that had to pay well over the odds for a modest family home and are now struggling because of the actions of this clown and others like him.

dazberry

uberalles wrote: »

Im not certain about the exact stats but Ihear ....

A functioning market has approx 3% of stock for sale.
Dublin has approx 1% as we speak

I was diving near clonskeagh today and there were "sale agreed" signs everywhere.

When can we have a real normal recession?
Is supply ever going to be normal supply here or will repros be drip fed to keep prices high ?

Using what we paid as a benchmark in early 2012, and as best I can compare like with like, I was noticing houses in the locality selling within days and for above the asking price, and at a 20% premium to what we paid. I figured it was mainly supply driven as so little stock has been available.

But the interesting thing is that given such limited supply over the last year, 5 properties have now all come up for sale, 4 asking premium prices (the other in very poor condition) in the last week or so. As near as I can compare, the asking prices are now around 41% of what we paid, and while it's not comparable to compare asking and selling prices, never the less it'll be interesting to see how these pan out.

D.

The Spider

uberalles wrote: »

Im not certain about the exact stats but Ihear ....

A functioning market has approx 3% of stock for sale.
Dublin has approx 1% as we speak

I was diving near clonskeagh today and there were "sale agreed" signs everywhere.

When can we have a real normal recession?
Is supply ever going to be normal supply here or will repros be drip fed to keep prices high ?

Despair from a FTB. Is there any point waiting for another few months here?
Im thinking of emigrating at this stage as I refuse to pay top dollar for the kips on offer.

Last year you may have got soemthing, I was looking last year and in Dublin, there was an estate agent who was practically begging us to buy a large 4 bedroom house in Cabinteely, he said they'd take 335 for it, it was up on sale for 370. We decided to buy outside and commute as I've said.

However if you're looking for anything sub 350 in SCD you wont have a hope, I don't think they ever went below that even at the height of the bust, it's a very desirable area, last year you would have picked up a house in churchtown for about 345.

I decided to take a look in Cabinteely and came across this.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-vale-view-avenue-the-park-cabinteely-dublin-18/2191048

Now to me that seems like decent value these days for the location, last year I would have laughed at it.

I suppose you'll have to take a look at what you want and if there are areas you can substitute with what you think your ideal area is.

I reckon anywhere from Stillorgan in, is on the rise and will be for the forseeable, five years at least just looking at supply versus demand, and even then it's too far away to predict anything else, if you feel you can take your chances and wait, b y all means do, but I'd be looking at alternatives.

cookie1977

Interesting data here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2415912/Property-values-Europe-record-annual-growth-2010.html?ITO=1490

Of the PIIGS/Bailout countries we're the only one showing property price increases over the year.

uberalles

Speaking to a friend this morn .....

There are two news banks entering the Irish market very soon.
They have no bad debts and will be lending and perhaps at better rates than AIB and BOI giving them a kick up the arse.

They will loan to people that AIB and BOI are scared to, e.g. some couples with good jobs that currently should be approved but are not.

The effect will be people can trade up freeing up houses like we need.

The positive for us - it will free up some smaller houses – 3 bed semis.
The negative - it will result in more buyers over all.

This weighed against a few repros slowly hitting the market I think It looks like a steady rise.

The net effect will be slow pressure upwardly (not a surge) on prices in keep with inflation + a % perhaps.

Potatoeman

uberalles wrote: »

Speaking to a friend this morn .....

There are two news banks entering the Irish market very soon.
They have no bad debts and will be lending and perhaps at better rates than AIB and BOI giving them a kick up the arse.

They will loan to people that AIB and BOI are scared to, e.g. some couples with good jobs that currently should be approved but are not.

The effect will be people can trade up freeing up houses like we need.

The positive for us - it will free up some smaller houses – 3 bed semis.
The negative - it will result in more buyers over all.

This weighed against a few repros slowly hitting the market I think It looks like a steady rise.

The net effect will be slow pressure upwardly (not a surge) on prices in keep with inflation + a % perhaps.

What banks and how does she know?

The Spider

uberalles wrote: »

Speaking to a friend this morn .....

There are two news banks entering the Irish market very soon.
They have no bad debts and will be lending and perhaps at better rates than AIB and BOI giving them a kick up the arse.

They will loan to people that AIB and BOI are scared to, e.g. some couples with good jobs that currently should be approved but are not.

The effect will be people can trade up freeing up houses like we need.

The positive for us - it will free up some smaller houses – 3 bed semis.
The negative - it will result in more buyers over all.

This weighed against a few repros slowly hitting the market I think It looks like a steady rise.

The net effect will be slow pressure upwardly (not a surge) on prices in keep with inflation + a % perhaps.

This will continue to push prices up, again it's down to supply and demand, there's a finite amount of houses within the M50 and there's more than enough people in decent jobs to be able to pay for them, again demand beats supply.

The reason that people are saying prices can't rise is because banks aren't lending (they are as I've said previously I had zero problems) and that it's all cash buyers. Now if you're saying two banks are coming in that don't have the debt burden of AIB and BOI, and are going to lend, then that means more people chasing the limited pool of houses, and I say houses because that's what people want as opposed to apartments.

When all the houses are out of reach that's when people will buy apartments again, people tend to forget that the reason they were built in the first place was because there's limited development land, the only reason people are now looking at houses is because the bubble burst. Bottom was last year I've said it before.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

The_Conductor

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Pepper Home Loans (from Australia) are probably the other one- they've bought GE's Irish loan book. They're more a subprime lender than anything else.

uberalles

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Is http://www.kbc.ie/ the other?

stevedublin

uberalles wrote: »

Is http://www.kbc.ie/ the other?

They were already in Ireland during the boom, are you sure you are not making things up?

cookie1977

stevedublin wrote: »

They were already in Ireland during the boom, are you sure you are not making things up?

The KBC current account is a new move by KBC in the irish market:

http://www.kbc.ie/personal/currentaccount

No fees too

uberalles

stevedublin wrote: »

They were already in Ireland during the boom, are you sure you are not making things up?

I said 2 banks are entering the mortgage market. Perhaps I was half right!
Investec is for sure and I heard that a second may do by Dec. Perhaps they are wrong I dont know for sure about the second.


Investec:
It will be the first new lender to enter the market since the financial collapse in 2008.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-lender-to-shake-up-mortgage-market-29511750.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/investec-s-punt-on-mortgage-market-sends-good-signal-1.1500174

cookie1977

Actually Investec have been operating in Ireland for some time as the odorous Start Mortgages company. They know quite a bit about sub prime lending

stevedublin

cookie1977 wrote: »

Actually Investec have been operating in Ireland for some time as the odorous Start Mortgages company.

From the first article you linked, Investec are particularly experienced at coming in to Ireland just as the market is topping out.

Potatoeman

The Spider wrote: »

This will continue to push prices up, again it's down to supply and demand, there's a finite amount of houses within the M50 and there's more than enough people in decent jobs to be able to pay for them, again demand beats supply.

The reason that people are saying prices can't rise is because banks aren't lending (they are as I've said previously I had zero problems) and that it's all cash buyers. Now if you're saying two banks are coming in that don't have the debt burden of AIB and BOI, and are going to lend, then that means more people chasing the limited pool of houses, and I say houses because that's what people want as opposed to apartments.

When all the houses are out of reach that's when people will buy apartments again, people tend to forget that the reason they were built in the first place was because there's limited development land, the only reason people are now looking at houses is because the bubble burst. Bottom was last year I've said it before.

People should at least be more cautious. During the bubble years people bought property they could not afford to live in or barely afford to live in. With interest rates at historic lows and earning fluctuations not to mention child costs and tax increases, high house prices provide little wiggle room.

The Spider

Potatoeman wrote: »

People should at least be more cautious. During the bubble years people bought property they could not afford to live in or barely afford to live in. With interest rates at historic lows and earning fluctuations not to mention child costs and tax increases, high house prices provide little wiggle room.

All well and good, and people will be more cautious, but more likely they'll stretch to get what they can, as house prices are going up, I think if someone is going to buy now, they should be looking at substitution areas before and assessing the types of properties they can get there before they inevitably start rising too, and they find themselves getting a worse house in an area that wasn't their first choice, better to get the best house in an area that isn't your first choice.

Tigerandahalf

One would have to be very cautious about buying. Even those in permanent public jobs are likey to see their pay come under threat again. Creche fees are a big consideration as is the expense of travelling to work. I can't see how house prices can increase over next few years when we are still face upto 5 years of further austerity budgets. Water rates and property taxes have still to take effect. Prices will fall further.

Idbatterim

Isnt budget 2015 to be the last of the austerity budgets?

The Spider

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

One would have to be very cautious about buying. Even those in permanent public jobs are likey to see their pay come under threat again. Creche fees are a big consideration as is the expense of travelling to work. I can't see how house prices can increase over next few years when we are still face upto 5 years of further austerity budgets. Water rates and property taxes have still to take effect. Prices will fall further.

Nope, they fell as far as they're going to, they dropped over 55 percent from the peak, will they go back to that? Who knows maybe but wages will be comig up behind them.

http://www.irishtimes.com/dublin-buy-to-let-market-showing-signs-of-value-1.1515994

Investors a re back, other banks are coming in, two people in Dublin at a mid level professional job will easily be earning 100k plus between both, most have savings, this and lack of supply is whats going to drive the gains.