Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

Tigerandahalf

Not if the budget isn't balanced. There is still a 12 billion deficit and the hse is struggling to get its house in order.
Unless there is real growth and long term sustainable jobs growth prices just can't go up. The wage level won't be the same level either. Graduates are taking on jobs paying 20,000 a year. Won't get much of a mortgage out of that. People may rent and even house share to reduce their rent.

Potatoeman

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

One would have to be very cautious about buying. Even those in permanent public jobs are likey to see their pay come under threat again. Creche fees are a big consideration as is the expense of travelling to work. I can't see how house prices can increase over next few years when we are still face upto 5 years of further austerity budgets. Water rates and property taxes have still to take effect. Prices will fall further.

It depends what you are looking at. Rent in many areas in Dublin is more than a mortgage at the moment and rising. Im looking myself as I could buy an apartment/house for what Im paying now.

The Spider

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Graduates are taking on jobs paying 20,000 a year. Won't get much of a mortgage out of that. People may rent and even house share to reduce their rent.

Ha as does everyone starting out I earned 10 grand a year in 1996, and had to house share for about 10 years, as did about 90 percent of the people I know, and at the time I'd say up to about the age of 30 I didn't know too many people buying houses, but obviously tons of people were.

gaius c

cookie1977 wrote: »

Interesting data here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2415912/Property-values-Europe-record-annual-growth-2010.html?ITO=1490

Of the PIIGS/Bailout countries we're the only one showing property price increases over the year.

Interesting.

A new term for people to become familiar with that would explain it: foreclosure stuffing.
We've taken that example to the extreme obviously.

Villa05

Troika looking for actual resolution in the majority of arrears cases by the end of 2014

The Troika wants banks to conclude agreements with one quarter of borrowers in arrears by the end of March next year, RTÉ News has learned.
Banks have already been set targets to make offers to distressed borrowers by the Central Bank.
However, observers say the goal of finalising arrangements with 25% of distressed borrowers will be very onerous for Irish banks.
This means banks must either modify loans so customers can meet new lower repayments or enter resolution agreements, which means customers will have to sell homes by trading down or in some cases face repossession..................

It is understood the targets for concluding deals will escalate next year to the point where the banks will have to have finalised arrangements with the majority of those in arrears by the end of 2014.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0911/473640-troika/

Troika may well be gone by the end of this year, but anyone expecting the last austerity to be in 2015 will be mistaken. The troika will be influencing budgets untill they have been fully paid back. This will be in an environment where we will be paying up to 30% of all tax income on the interest on our loans. This of course assumes that Ireland's borrowing costs will remain static at the current circa 4%.

Remember 2 years ago, Ireland's market borrowing rate went as high as 14% for new borrowing.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php
Tick Tock :eek::eek:

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

Troika looking for actual resolution in the majority of arrears cases by the end of 2014

25% of cases.
And you're correct- they want the resolutions finalised by 31st March next year.
As for those who are say- lets stick our noses to them- the simple fact is- even if we are outside their programme at that stage- we still have had to organise a precautionary line of credit valid for 24 months (10 billion) which means regardless of what happens we are fully funded until April 2015. In addition to this- we still have to repay the Troika money- so whether we like it or not- they have a say in how we run our affairs (which may actually not be a bad thing............)

cookie1977

Villa05 wrote: »

Troika looking for actual resolution in the majority of arrears cases by the end of 2014


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0911/473640-troika/

Troika may well be gone by the end of this year, but anyone expecting the last austerity to be in 2015 will be mistaken. The troika will be influencing budgets untill they have been fully paid back. This will be in an environment where we will be paying up to 30% of all tax income on the interest on our loans. This of course assumes that Ireland's borrowing costs will remain static at the current circa 4%.

Remember 2 years ago, Ireland's market borrowing rate went as high as 14% for new borrowing.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php
Tick Tock :eek::eek:

We were in a bailout so to be honest the 14% is not a true representation of our borrowing costs (and it was as high as 15.56% then). The last time we were in the markets pre bailout we were being charged 6.3% (unsustainable itself). Our most recent toe dipping yielded 3.82%. 2 years is a long time in the markets.

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

And you're correct- they want the resolutions finalised by 31st March next year.

Which btw is the time around which the major banks will stop being regulated by the CBI and start being regulated by the ECB ... Which probably won't lower down the pressure.

Villa05

cookie1977 wrote: »

2 years is a long time in the markets.

Exactly my point

uberalles

I can see a large queue for the Hollyhead boat and lots of keys left in front doors if we have to pay back on this.


Brussels opens investigation into Ireland’s multinational tax deals
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brussels-opens-investigation-into-ireland-s-multinational-tax-deals-1.1524363

The Spider

Worth a read, some good points as to why you should walk away from as much debt as you can, and in an easy to understand format, with some dodgy language.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/4-common-morals-designed-to-keep-you-poor/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=fanpage&utm_campaign=new+article&wa_ibsrc=fanpage

uberalles

Will keep you in your house BUT ....

See pic attached

gaius c

uberalles wrote: »

Will keep you in your house ....

See attached

Yes, I know it's supposed to be a humourous cartoon but before it gets legs, people really need to have a look at the expenditure guidelines. They are really quite generous.

cookie1977

gaius c wrote: »

Yes, I know it's supposed to be a humorous cartoon but before it gets legs, people really need to have a look at the expenditure guidelines. They are really quite generous.

Remember though the banks do not have to accept PIP's if they're not happy. What will be interesting to see is how many deals are actually done over the next 12 months. Can we actually all look at the "reasonable living expenses guidelines" and not just comment on what the media are posting?
http://www.isi.gov.ie/en/ISI/Pages/Reasonable_living_expenses

I dont see anything completely unreasonable with the monthly breakdowns.

Some examples below.

snubbleste

Allsops have agreed not to sell repossessed principal private residences and the Mortgage Holders' Organisation wants all auctioneers to agree to same.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/allsop-signs-deal-to-prevent-unnecessary-repossessions-29580169.html

Unreal stuff! Would it happen in any other western country?
Why bother paying a mortgage at all?

The_Conductor

Oooohhhh- mob rule?

The_Conductor

This has been allowed go on for far too long- and develop into this complete and utter lawlessness. Why should anyone pay their mortgage- or indeed any other loan, if there are no repercussions whatsoever (so it would seem) if they fail to honor their debts. These are not the actions of a lawful country or a lawful people- this is mob rule of the first order. That these shysters have succeeded in running Allsop from the scene- will simply embolden them further- I can actually picture angry villagers chasing people with pitchforks and scyths- we are gone back to the dark ages here.........

snubbleste

The_Conductor wrote: »

Oooohhhh- mob rule?

Sounds like it.
If it turns out to be the case, you'd be an idiot a) for renting or b) paying a mortgage. Is there any lobby group out there counteracting the IMHO/New Beginnings/'Family home' brigade?

Bob24

snubbleste wrote: »

you'd be an idiot a) for renting or b) paying a mortgage

Very saddening but it looks like this is the direction this agreement is pointing towards ...

The message will be: honest people, either join the "distressed borrower" party, or get a double hit by both paying your mortgage/rent and getting taxed to pay for other people's mortgages.

I don't think it is financially sustainable though, so I don't think such a policy can be kept in place indefinitely. But it is very dangerous indeed to push more people into the magic money tree dream ... the awakening will be even harder and cause even more trouble for everyone in this country (distressed or not).

cookie1977

Do people think we'd be better moving towards a non recourse mortgage system then?

The_Conductor

cookie1977 wrote: »

Do people think we'd be better moving towards a non recourse mortgage system then?

Yes- but you have to accept that there would be far higher interest rates to pay- the cost associated with non-recourse mortgages would be far higher- as they are riskier for the lender.

Duckjob

If lenders can't call in the security on failed mortgages, then mortgage interest rates as we know them will disappear and we'll all be paying credit card type rates on our mortage debt, which ironically will put a large proportion of people who are currently managing to pay their loan into difficulty.

It's developments like these that make me think we'll sink eventually. You cant blame the policitians for this one. There's too much me-feinery here, not enough people with a concept of paying their dues, too many people will take a free ride if they can get it, and to hell with who else has to pay for it.

OMD

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yes- but you have to accept that there would be far higher interest rates to pay- the cost associated with non-recourse mortgages would be far higher- as they are riskier for the lender.

So many people forget this point when saying we should have non recourse mortgages in this country.

lima

OMD wrote: »

So many people forget this point when saying we should have non recourse mortgages in this country.

Banks take out insurance policies to cover the even that you default and your property is worth less than the loan given, this will surely add to the cost of the mortgage for the borrower

This 'mob rule' is terrible news :mad:

I am looking for a home to buy, but how can I trust this country if the vested interests keep making it harder and harder for the generation of people who work here who were never involved in the boom to commit to buying somewhere to keep them warm and dry?

This country has lost the plot!!!

El_Dangeroso

Rather than deciding every mortgage is non-recourse overnight, could it be mandated that all new mortgages should be non-recourse. Interest rates would go up on these products for sure, so as a result banks would lend less and prices would drop.

Eventually we would have a situation where the negative equity crisis could not happen again.

OMD

lima wrote: »

Banks take out insurance policies to cover the even that you default and your property is worth less than the loan given, this will surely add to the cost of the mortgage for the borrower

This 'mob rule' is terrible news :mad:

I am looking for a home to buy, but how can I trust this country if the vested interests keep making it harder and harder for the generation of people who work here who were never involved in the boom to commit to buying somewhere to keep them warm and dry?

This country has lost the plot!!!

Well they are not making it harder and harder to buy, just not as easy as it was during the boom. It is still easier and cheaper (not talking about house prices) to buy than it was 20 years ago

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yes- but you have to accept that there would be far higher interest rates to pay- the cost associated with non-recourse mortgages would be far higher- as they are riskier for the lender.

The problem though is the disconnect we have at present a situation where no one is willing to take responsibility (neither the banks, the government nor the people (those in and out of debt)). Portion must be allocated in so far as responsibility. Every party sees it as not their fault when in fact everyone owns a portion of the blame. Many of these groups (pick one, any one) feel they're unfairly targeted. So what is the answer that allows us all to suffer somewhat equally and get on with our lives?

lima

OMD wrote: »

Well they are not making it harder and harder to buy, just not as easy as it was during the boom. It is still easier and cheaper (not talking about house prices) to buy than it was 20 years ago

My starting point for buying a home was about two years ago, that's when I started looking, so that's my personal reference point, and since then it has become harder to buy a home since the market is severely restricted due to lack of Repossessions, to such an extent that prices are actually starting to rise.

It's not really about prices to me anymore, I know some area's can't go any lower, it's just lack of stock, despite houses and apartments all over Dublin (the area I'm look in) being empty

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

It's not really about prices to me anymore, I know some area's can't go any lower, it's just lack of stock, despite houses and apartments all over Dublin (the area I'm look in) being empty

You've changed your tune. You've been clamoring for lower prices throughout most of this thread. Why didn't you buy before it got to this situation?

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

You've changed your tune. You've been clamoring for lower prices throughout most of this thread. Why didn't you buy before it got to this situation?

I've been holding out for lower and lower prices alright

I guess there's a realisation that this country will never let the vested interests lose out and that the older, middle class generation have this place sewn up to suit their agenda (i.e curtail their losses and make up for losing money in property, pensions and bank shares). Unless there is some sort of revolution by the younger generation I don't see anything changing. The educated younger generation are getting out of the country in their droves, so I really don't see that happening. Sadly, there is not much to hope for this place, and it is going to remain a stagnant, bickering, corrupt peripheral country for a long long time.