Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

I've been holding out for lower and lower prices alright

I guess there's a realisation that this country will never let the vested interests lose out and that the older, middle class generation have this place sewn up to suit their agenda (i.e curtail their losses and make up for losing money in property, pensions and bank shares). Unless there is some sort of revolution by the younger generation I don't see anything changing. The educated younger generation are getting out of the country in their droves, so I really don't see that happening. Sadly, there is not much to hope for this place, and it is going to remain a stagnant, bickering, corrupt peripheral country for a long long time.

Could it not also be the case that you might have missed your opportunity to buy what you wanted where you wanted and now as a vested interest yourself you want to apportion the blame elsewhere?

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

Could it not also be the case that you might have missed your opportunity to buy what you wanted where you wanted and now as a vested interest yourself you want to apportion the blame elsewhere?

No, because I still do not believe properties are reasonably affordable, or at a level they should be at without vested interests meddling with the situation. The were not good value last year when they were cheaper and they are not good value this year. Maybe next year if repossessions happen as they should, they may reach an affordable price but if you are trying to tell me I have missed the boat then I am happy to miss the boat as I have no interest in purchasing substandard property at a relatively high price (whereas clearly others do). I'll just rent and save, instead of paying interest+principle (+ costs of owning).

Perhaps my personal situation allows me to sit on the fence as I will be emigrating at some point but the hope was to have something here that I could live in for the next few years before moving to a certain (richer) country to start a family. But this sitting on the fence allows me to not get involved in the supposed rush of people with large deposits panic-buying in south dublin.

Do you not see my point of view?

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

No, because I still do not believe properties are reasonably affordable, or at a level they should be at without vested interests meddling with the situation. The were not good value last year when they were cheaper and they are not good value this year. Maybe next year if repossessions happen as they should, they may reach an affordable price but if you are trying to tell me I have missed the boat then I am happy to miss the boat as I have no interest in purchasing substandard property at a relatively high price (whereas clearly others do). I'll just rent and save, instead of paying interest+principle (+ costs of owning).

Perhaps my personal situation allows me to sit on the fence as I will be emigrating at some point but the hope was to have something here that I could live in for the next few years before moving to a certain (richer) country to start a family. But this sitting on the fence allows me to not get involved in the supposed rush of people with large deposits panic-buying in south dublin.

Do you not see my point of view?

That to an extent there needs to be more repossessions? Yes I see your point. That the lack of repossessions has led to you not being able to buy a property? No, that was your decision.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

That to an extent there needs to be more repossessions? Yes I see your point. That the lack of repossessions has led to you not being able to buy a property? No, that was your decision.

Of course I am able to buy a property, but I think they are overvalued because of a restricted housing market, so yes I am deciding to sit on the fence. I am not able to buy a property for the price they should be at without meddling in the system by vested interests.

gaius c

snubbleste wrote: »

Allsops have agreed not to sell repossessed principal private residences and the Mortgage Holders' Organisation wants all auctioneers to agree to same.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/allsop-signs-deal-to-prevent-unnecessary-repossessions-29580169.html

Unreal stuff! Would it happen in any other western country?
Why bother paying a mortgage at all?

Thought Allsops didn't handle repos in the first place?

Also, note that it's only Allsops Space. What about their online auction arm...

jay0109

gaius c wrote: »

Thought Allsops didn't handle repos in the first place?

Also, note that it's only Allsops Space. What about their online auction arm...

Hall is going after 'every auctioneer' in the country to get an agreement per the report in the Indo.
Could be a good time to get an Auctioneers licence and move into this soon-to-be even-more lucrative game:D

Surely this is something the Competition Authority should be looking into if it becomes widespread

Tigerandahalf

Lima
I don't see too many countries around that would be good to emigrate to. Unless you have proper fluency you are limited where you go. Australia is gone crazy expensive plus is very far away if you have to be returning on a yearly basis. Even England are on the same programme as us. There is no pot of gold in these other countries.o
As for houses I can see prices falling further but if you are looking to buy in niche parts of Dublin they are always going to hold their value. Too many are speculating on picking up cheap houses. It may never happen. It makes no sense to the gov or taxpayer to put people out of principal primary residences and then have to cover relocation costs etc.

Villa05

snubbleste wrote: »

Allsops have agreed not to sell repossessed principal private residences and the Mortgage Holders' Organisation wants all auctioneers to agree to same.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/allsop-signs-deal-to-prevent-unnecessary-repossessions-29580169.html

Unreal stuff! Would it happen in any other western country?
Why bother paying a mortgage at all?

I believe Allsop had that policy anyway, so they said on the news after the last auction was cancelled after Fianna Fail idiots disrupted proceedings.

Probably a bit of lip service to avoid these fools disrupting the auctions again

The_Conductor

cookie1977 wrote: »

The problem though is the disconnect we have at present a situation where no one is willing to take responsibility (neither the banks, the government nor the people (those in and out of debt)). Portion must be allocated in so far as responsibility. Every party sees it as not their fault when in fact everyone owns a portion of the blame. Many of these groups (pick one, any one) feel they're unfairly targeted. So what is the answer that allows us all to suffer somewhat equally and get on with our lives?

Suffer equally? How are any of the 3 groups you've mentioned- bearing more of a burden, than young families who bought during the boom, and who are making all sorts of sacrifices to actually pay their debts? People who were responsible with the amounts of money they borrowed, and are making every effort to repay their debts? This category of people- are going to be asked to carry the can to further bail-out the 3 groups of people you've identified.........

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Suffer equally? How are any of the 3 groups you've mentioned- bearing more of a burden, than young families who bought during the boom, and who are making all sorts of sacrifices to actually pay their debts? People who were responsible with the amounts of money they borrowed, and are making every effort to repay their debts? This category of people- are going to be asked to carry the can to further bail-out the 3 groups of people you've identified.........

My point was that something has to give. If we go with non recourse then as you've said we have to accept the outcomes from that (increased rates etc...) If we go with a low repossession rate then we have to accept what comes with that process too. If we decide to go for a high repossession rate then there are severe consequences with that process too. Which ever way you go some one has to suffer.

At present it seems we're going with a low repossession rate and trying to do deals to keep people in their homes. If that is the way we continue then we will (as others have said) see increasing variable rates to off set current and future bank losses but on the other hand we 'may' see a less troubled society. Who knows for certain.

Villa05

Non recourse and interest rates fixed for the duration of the mortgage are the way to go, both will mean higher rates and greater scrutiny on applicants. It will mean a little fall in prices put a far more sustainable future for all parties involved.

Unfortunately too many vested interests prevent this from being talked about, let alone implemented

cookie1977

Villa05 wrote: »

Non recourse and interest rates fixed for the duration of the mortgage are the way to go, both will mean higher rates and greater scrutiny on applicants. It will mean a little fall in prices put a far more sustainable future for all parties involved.

Unfortunately too many vested interests prevent this from being talked about, let alone implemented

Sustainable and stable. No super cut price discounted variable rates or trackers. Just an acceptance of a fairly static (and hopefully manageable) payment throughout the lifetime of the mortgage.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

The problem though is the disconnect we have at present a situation where no one is willing to take responsibility (neither the banks, the government nor the people (those in and out of debt)). Portion must be allocated in so far as responsibility. Every party sees it as not their fault when in fact everyone owns a portion of the blame. Many of these groups (pick one, any one) feel they're unfairly targeted. So what is the answer that allows us all to suffer somewhat equally and get on with our lives?

You mention three groups: the Govt, the people in debt and the people not in debt

There is another group: people who didn't get involved in the boom, the ones who were either too young, or who went abroad and have recently returned to take up one of those highly skilled jobs. As one of those group, we are not responsible for any of this situation, and we have a right to be very angry about seeing people not paying mortgages and staying in their homes for 3-4 years, being protected by lobbying by vested interests who want either votes or some sort of debt relief themselves. And the worst bit is that through taxes we have to pay for them, and if the lobbying of the vested interests gathers even more momentum, we will have to pay even more to a generation who were to greedy or too gullible to see that a bubble was happening.

I know I sound like a bit of a p*ick from your point of view but when I see things like the 'anti eviction task force' asking people to turn up to repossessions and attack the people trying to take back the property, as well as FF developers turning up at Alsop auctions trying to stop the sale of repossessions it really disappointing and angers me.

The_Conductor

I'd add the people who sat down, judged their finances, and made informed decisions based on reasonable assumptions. Many people didn't over-extend themselves- got laughed at by their neighbours with their annual new car and 3 holidays abroad per year- and who now have to subsidise the selfsame people who are refusing to pay their mortgage- as it was all the banks fault. Many people who didn't go away- and who were old enough and wise enough- didn't get caught up in the madness- yet, as compensation for their prudence- now have to bailout the hoard of freeskaters- who seem to be growing by the day.

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

You mention three groups: the Govt, the people in debt and the people not in debt

There is another group: people who didn't get involved in the boom, the ones who were either too young, or who went abroad and have recently returned to take up one of those highly skilled jobs. As one of those group, we are not responsible for any of this situation, and we have a right to be very angry about seeing people not paying mortgages and staying in their homes for 3-4 years, being protected by lobbying by vested interests who want either votes or some sort of debt relief themselves. And the worst bit is that through taxes we have to pay for them, and if the lobbying of the vested interests gathers even more momentum, we will have to pay even more to a generation who were to greedy or too gullible to see that a bubble was happening.

I know I sound like a bit of a p*ick from your point of view but when I see things like the 'anti eviction task force' asking people to turn up to repossessions and attack the people trying to take back the property, as well as FF developers turning up at Alsop auctions trying to stop the sale of repossessions it really disappointing and angers me.

No I agree, I do feel sorry for those who you speak of and you sound perfectly reasonable here too. There has to be a meeting of ways. We HAVE to have repossessions and the banks MUST do more to rescue salvageable mortgages

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd add the people who sat down, judged their finances, and made informed decisions based on reasonable assumptions. Many people didn't over-extend themselves- got laughed at by their neighbours with their annual new car and 3 holidays abroad per year- and who now have to subsidise the selfsame people who are refusing to pay their mortgage- as it was all the banks fault. Many people who didn't go away- and who were old enough and wise enough- didn't get caught up in the madness- yet, as compensation for their prudence- now have to bailout the hoard of freeskaters- who seem to be growing by the day.

Again I'd agree and I'd classify my self as one of those (and there's many of us) that made significant changes to my life (no more kids, no holidays, no extensions the list goes on and on) in order to continue to pay my debts at all costs. Do I feel foolish for doing so? No I dont think so. Morally (and maybe here's where I am mad) I'll feel proud of what I've done during these times and when my debts are paid off I'll know I did it alone (as it should be). But does that mean I do not want to help others through my increased taxes? No again. I do want to help those less fortunate and who may have made poor decisions or had harsh realities foisted upon them.

I dont believe there's a massive amount of people who are living the high life, I'm not saying there isn't some but the majority of people are just trying to get by. I think I said it before but I do feel more confident of the future now then I did say 6-12 months ago.

Villa05

Id like to add the amount of unquestioned exposure David hall receives on what is supposed to be public service broadcaster. There is no voice for the crucified taxpayer in the media. A media that made a fortune out of the property bubble and are doing their utmost to blow a new bubble.
Many in the media were caught by the bubble bursting, they cant be trusted to present an unbiased debate on the topic and are not deserving of public revenue to broadcast there spin

cookie1977

Villa05 wrote: »

Id like to add the amount of unquestioned exposure David hall receives on what is supposed to be public service broadcaster. There is no voice for the crucified taxpayer in the media. A media that made a fortune out of the property bubble and are doing their utmost to blow a new bubble.
Many in the media were caught by the bubble bursting, they cant be trusted to present an unbiased debate on the topic and are not deserving of public revenue to broadcast there spin

There will always be interest groups whose voices outweigh their size. Just look at how everytime there's a cut somewhere. You get massive pressure applied to politicians. Think of the elderly and the medical card. Many of those elderly did not need the medical card with their earnings and health insurance. The free third level education for all when many could afford the costs. There are many more examples but safe to say this is the way of the world. If tax payers came out and protested they too could get some deserved attention but the likelihood of that happening is...

uberalles

cookie1977 wrote: »

There will always be interest groups whose voices outweigh their size. Just look at how everytime there's a cut somewhere. You get massive pressure applied to politicians. Think of the elderly and the medical card. Many of those elderly did not need the medical card with their earnings and health insurance. The free third level education for all when many could afford the costs. There are many more examples but safe to say this is the way of the world. If tax payers came out and protested they too could get some deserved attention but the likelihood of that happening is...

We are too busy working at one or two jobs to have the energy.

I spoke to someone who knows a few people who havnt paid their mortgage for 5 years. 5 Years. WTF ?

1% stock available while in a normal economy it approx 3%.

Socialise my loses but privatise my profits.

Im a FTB and its a nightmare looking at kips that should be 30% less in normal economy.

cookie1977

uberalles wrote: »

We are too busy working at one or two jobs to have the energy.

I spoke to someone who knows a few people who havnt paid their mortgage for 5 years. 5 Years. WTF ?

1% stock available while in a normal economy it approx 3%.

Socialise my loses but privatise my profits.

Im a FTB and its a nightmare looking at kips that should be 30% less in normal economy.

While I appreciate that, there is no other way then to create noise if you want change. Politicians worry about votes and protesters are voters. It's not enough to post on here. That's why political causes such as David Halls do well.

uberalles

cookie1977 wrote: »

While I appreciate that there is no other way then to create noise if you want change. Politicians worry about votes and protesters are voters. It's not enough to post on here. That's why political causes such as David Halls do well.

I wonder what percentage of the population have vested interest (are partially or total underwater) in a bail out of the people and of course BTL investors.

The alt is the next generation(s) pay.

cookie1977

uberalles wrote: »

I wonder what percentage of the population have vested interest (are partially or total underwater) in a bail out of the people and of course BTL investors.

The alt is the next generation(s) pay.

Everyone is a vested interest.

Zamboni

Villa05 wrote: »

Id like to add the amount of unquestioned exposure David hall receives on what is supposed to be public service broadcaster. There is no voice for the crucified taxpayer in the media. A media that made a fortune out of the property bubble and are doing their utmost to blow a new bubble.
Many in the media were caught by the bubble bursting, they cant be trusted to present an unbiased debate on the topic and are not deserving of public revenue to broadcast there spin

I agree with you completely.
Let's do it.
There are lots of us here in this tiny corner of the internet that have similar feelings.
You have a strong ability to articulate and critically, back up the arguments.
I am happy to volunteer services in the area of websites and marketing.
We can stick jmayo on Newstalk to rant and rave against the likes of David Hall
Joking aside, it would take little to set up and make an impact.

Anyone interested in being involved?
I think there is a lot of potential latent support out there - especially people who are paying their mortgages and listening to stories of strategic defaulters.
People like myself and uberalles who now are in the ridiculous position of having to pay over the odds for executor sale dumps AND being charged high interest rates by the banks to cover their losses on last generations trackers.
People who are busting their balls paying taxes and renting, living next door to non mortgage paying jobless individuals who for all intents and purposes should have downgraded, private rented or moved into state housing.

They killed off namewinelake, something else need to arise here...

Villa05

Its election year in germany, send recordings and stories of these clowns to germany media. It would be far more effective. Enda will listen then. Wasting your time with irish media. They have nailed there colours to the mast

The Spider

uberalles wrote: »

We are too busy working at one or two jobs to have the energy.

I spoke to someone who knows a few people who havnt paid their mortgage for 5 years. 5 Years. WTF ?

1% stock available while in a normal economy it approx 3%.

Socialise my loses but privatise my profits.

Im a FTB and its a nightmare looking at kips that should be 30% less in normal economy.

Value outside Dublin, look there. Fact is people who haven't bought are complaining about bills they don't have (mortgage). People who are in debt are complaining about bills they have and can't meet.

The bank guarantee socialised the banks losses, morally it's a difficult argument to have that you're not going to do the same for an individual, like it or not all those individuals are voters, and there's a helluva lot more of them than there are people who haven't bought.

Ultimately you're a vested interest as are the others complaining about rising prices, nobody likes to hear that they missed the bottom, which was last year.

Falling house prices are not in the country's interest, the banks lose, the homeowners lose and some default.

Prices are rising, the government is not going to throw people out on the streets, no government would last a week if they did that.

As a FTB this is about judgement, you're ideal area may have gone beyond affordability, so start looking at other areas, and adjusting your lifestyle to fit, whether that's a commute or whatever.

These rises will be around for years, even if building starts again, if your pinning your hopes on mass repossessions, I think you'll be waiting, that's the reality.

You have to consider can you wait years? do you emigrate? do you look at other areas?

From my viewpoint that's the reality for the forseeable, and you need to look at the situation cold, without emotion and see what's the best option.

Potatoeman

lima wrote: »

No, because I still do not believe properties are reasonably affordable, or at a level they should be at without vested interests meddling with the situation. The were not good value last year when they were cheaper and they are not good value this year. Maybe next year if repossessions happen as they should, they may reach an affordable price but if you are trying to tell me I have missed the boat then I am happy to miss the boat as I have no interest in purchasing substandard property at a relatively high price (whereas clearly others do). I'll just rent and save, instead of paying interest+principle (+ costs of owning).

Perhaps my personal situation allows me to sit on the fence as I will be emigrating at some point but the hope was to have something here that I could live in for the next few years before moving to a certain (richer) country to start a family. But this sitting on the fence allows me to not get involved in the supposed rush of people with large deposits panic-buying in south dublin.

Do you not see my point of view?

Why would you buy if you are planning on leaving the country?

Potatoeman

lima wrote: »

No, because I still do not believe properties are reasonably affordable, or at a level they should be at without vested interests meddling with the situation. The were not good value last year when they were cheaper and they are not good value this year. Maybe next year if repossessions happen as they should, they may reach an affordable price but if you are trying to tell me I have missed the boat then I am happy to miss the boat as I have no interest in purchasing substandard property at a relatively high price (whereas clearly others do). I'll just rent and save, instead of paying interest+principle (+ costs of owning).

Perhaps my personal situation allows me to sit on the fence as I will be emigrating at some point but the hope was to have something here that I could live in for the next few years before moving to a certain (richer) country to start a family. But this sitting on the fence allows me to not get involved in the supposed rush of people with large deposits panic-buying in south dublin.

Do you not see my point of view?

Why would you buy if you are planning on leaving the country?

jmayo

Zamboni wrote: »

I agree with you completely.
Let's do it.
There are lots of us here in this tiny corner of the internet that have similar feelings.
You have a strong ability to articulate and critically, back up the arguments.
I am happy to volunteer services in the area of websites and marketing.
We can stick jmayo on Newstalk to rant and rave against the likes of David Hall

Yeah thanks. :rolleyes:

Zamboni wrote: »

Joking aside, it would take little to set up and make an impact.

Anyone interested in being involved?

I don't know.
After comments like above you have hurt my feeling and you are now on my list.
Granted you are towards the bottom.

Villa05 wrote: »

Its election year in germany, send recordings and stories of these clowns to germany media. It would be far more effective. Enda will listen then. Wasting your time with irish media. They have nailed there colours to the mast

Now that is a nice cunning plan.

Has mr staffords take on mortgage writeoffs for the privledged been forwarded to any German media outlets I wonder ?
I think Allsops agreement to not sell repossessed properties needs to be highlighted abroad.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Value outside Dublin, look there. Fact is people who haven't bought are complaining about bills they don't have (mortgage). People who are in debt are complaining about bills they have and can't meet.

The bank guarantee socialised the banks losses, morally it's a difficult argument to have that you're not going to do the same for an individual, like it or not all those individuals are voters, and there's a helluva lot more of them than there are people who haven't bought.

Ultimately you're a vested interest as are the others complaining about rising prices, nobody likes to hear that they missed the bottom, which was last year.

Falling house prices are not in the country's interest, the banks lose, the homeowners lose and some default.

Prices are rising, the government is not going to throw people out on the streets, no government would last a week if they did that.

As a FTB this is about judgement, you're ideal area may have gone beyond affordability, so start looking at other areas, and adjusting your lifestyle to fit, whether that's a commute or whatever.

These rises will be around for years, even if building starts again, if your pinning your hopes on mass repossessions, I think you'll be waiting, that's the reality.

You have to consider can you wait years? do you emigrate? do you look at other areas?

From my viewpoint that's the reality for the forseeable, and you need to look at the situation cold, without emotion and see what's the best option.

The more you talk like this the more you are wasting your time as your words wont make it true, despite making yourself feel better by listening to your own words

lima

Zamboni wrote: »

I agree with you completely.
Let's do it.
There are lots of us here in this tiny corner of the internet that have similar feelings.
You have a strong ability to articulate and critically, back up the arguments.
I am happy to volunteer services in the area of websites and marketing.
We can stick jmayo on Newstalk to rant and rave against the likes of David Hall
Joking aside, it would take little to set up and make an impact.

Anyone interested in being involved?
I think there is a lot of potential latent support out there - especially people who are paying their mortgages and listening to stories of strategic defaulters.
People like myself and uberalles who now are in the ridiculous position of having to pay over the odds for executor sale dumps AND being charged high interest rates by the banks to cover their losses on last generations trackers.
People who are busting their balls paying taxes and renting, living next door to non mortgage paying jobless individuals who for all intents and purposes should have downgraded, private rented or moved into state housing.

They killed off namewinelake, something else need to arise here...

Im in, bring it!

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

Its election year in germany, send recordings and stories of these clowns to germany media. It would be far more effective. Enda will listen then. Wasting your time with irish media. They have nailed there colours to the mast

Thats called cutting off your nose to spite your face.........
Soooo- the German media goes on a mad anti-Ireland binge.
What then?