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Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’
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Potatoeman wrote: »Why would you buy if you are planning on leaving the country?
Personal reasons0 -
At what stage does a family home become your family home?
When you have paid for 1 year followed by 4/5 years of paying 0 and we the taxpayers (some renting like myself) pay for a write down? Or pay for it via the increased price of the current stock available while they sit pretty?
Its not your family home if you are not paying for it for 4-5 years+ .
End of.
Listen to himself here .... "we are mortgage holders ourselves"
How many mortgages does he have, Id put money is multiple BTLs.
http://www.rte.ie/news/player/2013/0916/20438188-allsop-auctioneers-agree-not-to-sell-repossessed-homes/
Allsop auctioneers agree not to sell repossessed homes
Pat Davitt, CEO of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers, discusses the position of the institute on auctions of repossessed family homes0 -
The Spider wrote: »Value outside Dublin, look there. Fact is people who haven't bought are complaining about bills they don't have (mortgage). People who are in debt are complaining about bills they have and can't meet.
The bank guarantee socialised the banks losses, morally it's a difficult argument to have that you're not going to do the same for an individual, like it or not all those individuals are voters, and there's a helluva lot more of them than there are people who haven't bought.
Ultimately you're a vested interest as are the others complaining about rising prices, nobody likes to hear that they missed the bottom, which was last year.
Falling house prices are not in the country's interest, the banks lose, the homeowners lose and some default.
Prices are rising, the government is not going to throw people out on the streets, no government would last a week if they did that.
As a FTB this is about judgement, you're ideal area may have gone beyond affordability, so start looking at other areas, and adjusting your lifestyle to fit, whether that's a commute or whatever.
These rises will be around for years, even if building starts again, if your pinning your hopes on mass repossessions, I think you'll be waiting, that's the reality.
You have to consider can you wait years? do you emigrate? do you look at other areas?
From my viewpoint that's the reality for the forseeable, and you need to look at the situation cold, without emotion and see what's the best option.
I dont have time to answer all this post but
Value outside Dublin, look there.
I spoke to an acquaintance who has several BTL and is thrilled with recent rent rises.
I mentioned that things are increasing and we are getting scared. Compared to Meath for example when a 3/4 bed semi is 100K.
Her immediate answer was ... "go live there". Spoken like a true land lady.
It was a jaw dropper, but Im sure she is used to saying it to tenants looking for a rent decreases.
We dont work anywhere near there. There is no point moving there.
If this was a normal market we could afford to get a place near where we work, no problem.
it isnt. We cant.
We cant afford petrol / depreciation etc of living far away from work while others pay 0 on their investments and homes next door to us.
How can this be fair?0 -
No, because I still do not believe properties are reasonably affordable, or at a level they should be at without vested interests meddling with the situation. The were not good value last year when they were cheaper and they are not good value this year. Maybe next year if repossessions happen as they should, they may reach an affordable price but if you are trying to tell me I have missed the boat then I am happy to miss the boat as I have no interest in purchasing substandard property at a relatively high price (whereas clearly others do). I'll just rent and save, instead of paying interest+principle (+ costs of owning).
Perhaps my personal situation allows me to sit on the fence as I will be emigrating at some point but the hope was to have something here that I could live in for the next few years before moving to a certain (richer) country to start a family. But this sitting on the fence allows me to not get involved in the supposed rush of people with large deposits panic-buying in south dublin.
Do you not see my point of view?
Did you see my earlier post re "foreclosure stuffing"?
We're just doing it on a grand scale.0 -
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was talking to my younger brother last night and he is very annoyed that all of the properties he has looked at he can't afford. He is in exactly the situation he was in in 2000 the last time we had that conversation.
Except that this time even the banks are lending him less and less money. His mortgage approval expired and now he is getting approved for 20k less, while the houses he likes are moving higher and higher in price.
He has missed the boat twice now by trying to time the market.
He did get a few years to gloat about how smart he was by not buying a house years ago though (though we both know he just missed the boat and wasn't able to buy). I wonder will he be in that position again. But now he has 3 kids and renting a 2 bed apartment. He,ll soon have to rent 3 bed instead as the kids are growing up, while he hopes for repos to bring prices down again and his loan amount to go up.
The funny thing is he was looking a a lovely house last year and had his bid accepted but then started messing the vendor about looking for money off for all sorts. the vendor drooped him and the house sold 4 months later for a higher price.
Sometimes you can be too clever.0 -
I dont have time to answer all this post but
Value outside Dublin, look there.
I spoke to an acquaintance who has several BTL and is thrilled with recent rent rises.
I mentioned that things are increasing and we are getting scared. Compared to Meath for example when a 3/4 bed semi is 100K.
Her immediate answer was ... "go live there". Spoken like a true land lady.
It was a jaw dropper, but Im sure she is used to saying it to tenants looking for a rent decreases.
We dont work anywhere near there. There is no point moving there.
If this was a normal market we could afford to get a place near where we work, no problem.
it isnt. We cant.
We cant afford petrol / depreciation etc of living far away from work while others pay 0 on their investments and homes next door to us.
How can this be fair?
A. it depends on where you work, if you work in Dublin 4, unless you're earning close to 400 grand a year it's highly unlikely you can buy a house close to work.
It is a normal market, supply and demand are the things that drive the market, if there's lots of supply and less demand, prices will be cheaper, if there's limited supply and lot of demand prices will be more expensive, that's the basics.
Fair has nothing to do with it, life isn't fair some people do nothing and get everything, other people work their asses off and get nothing that's life.
Again, you really need to look at this cold, and without emotion and see what's best for you, irregardless of what may or may not happen.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/rising-house-prices-bolsters-consumer-confidence-but-sentiment-still-cautious-241532.html
The above link connects rising house prices to the economy doing well, you'd better believe that's what everyone wants.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/has-irelands-world-beating-housing-bust-ended/
This link points to housing in recovery, australian link, it's being reported around the world, investors are back, any nama releases, if any will be snapped up by them.
There won't be repo's in any numbers and I predict budget 2014 will be easier than people expect to give the economy and house prices recovery time.0 -
A lot of the posters here seem to be looking to buy in Dublin, in good areas and hoping that repossessions will make that possible. However if houses are going to be repossessed not many of them will be in these areas. It's people in the commuter areas who have lost jobs that are not paying their mortgages.
Even if there were a limited amount of houses in the Dublin area there likely would be heavy demand for them that would keep up the price.
I agree that I can't see politicians standing over people being evicted from primary residences. It won't happen as the taxpayer would end up picking up the tab to relocate people. A lot of people on here just want to get a cheap repossessed house, to hell with what the taxpayer will have to pick up.0 -
The Spider wrote: »It is a normal market, supply and demand are the things that drive the market, if there's lots of supply and less demand, prices will be cheaper, if there's limited supply and lot of demand prices will be more expensive, that's the basics..
The most laughable statement yet! Our property market is dysfunctional. Any claim to the contrary is just delusional.0 -
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The Spider wrote: »Explain how?
Oh, where does one start:- Nama (Drip feeding property onto the market, even when supply is squeezed)
- Lack of repossessions (yes this happens in a normal functioning market)
- Artificial lack of supply caused by 1 & 2 above
- Higher percentage of cash buyers than normal (this well will run dry eventually)
- Government interference in property market in the form of Rent Allowance (i.e. Artificial floor for rents keeping them high)
Can you really, hand on heart claim that Ireland has a normal functioning property market?0 -
Tigerandahalf wrote: »A lot of the posters here seem to be looking to buy in Dublin, in good areas and hoping that repossessions will make that possible. However if houses are going to be repossessed not many of them will be in these areas.
Did you not listen to mr stafford on the radio the other day ?
He actually came out and said, in reposnse to Mary Wilson comment about consultants, etc, that some of his clients would not want to let go of their status homes and trophy houses in South County Dublin.
Anyone that thinks all the people in debt up to their necks are first time buyers, people on basic incomes or ones with the extra rental gaff are failing to spot the elephant in the room.
A lot of our professional classes got very jealous of the muckers below them (i.e. the builders and developers who were once builders) and they decided to get in on the act.
Fact is some of those muckers were a lot smarter than the ex privately educated and university educated professional body accredited types and actually spotted the writing on the wall.Tigerandahalf wrote: »It's people in the commuter areas who have lost jobs that are not paying their mortgages.
Even if there were a limited amount of houses in the Dublin area there likely would be heavy demand for them that would keep up the price.
I agree that I can't see politicians standing over people being evicted from primary residences. It won't happen as the taxpayer would end up picking up the tab to relocate people. A lot of people on here just want to get a cheap repossessed house, to hell with what the taxpayer will have to pick up.
Why shouldn't some people want to pick up a cheaper property ?
To me expecting to walk away from your debts while keeping your asset is much worse.
EDIT: BTW what is the definition of cheap.
Everything is cheap compared to 2005/2006.
But comparing prices to those is useless since they were abnormal in the extreme.The Spider wrote: »Explain how?
Ehh think numbers of transactions.
The current housing market is akin to a pub selling a pint a night.
It aint functioning.
Also why not think about the number of properties that are in default or the number of properties being held off the market by the largest property holder in the country.
Basically we have a market in limbo and no matter how much you squawk about the market on the up, it aint going to make it a normal market with increasing prices.I am not allowed discuss …
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The Spider wrote: »Explain how?
It is true supply and demand is driving prices.
But the fact that a group of people is allowed to keep their assets for a long time without meeting their repayments is artificially limiting supply and increassing prices. This is where things are not working: supply is being restrained.
If a large percentage of customers at Tesco were picking up their grocery but refusing to pay for them - and Tesco was not able to go after them. Price would go up for people who are paying due to supply and demand and the fact that Tesco need to recovre their losses in some way. Would you say it would be a functioning market though?0 -
Tigerandahalf wrote: »A lot of the posters here seem to be looking to buy in Dublin, in good areas and hoping that repossessions will make that possible. However if houses are going to be repossessed not many of them will be in these areas. It's people in the commuter areas who have lost jobs that are not paying their mortgages.
Even if there were a limited amount of houses in the Dublin area there likely would be heavy demand for them that would keep up the price.
I agree that I can't see politicians standing over people being evicted from primary residences. It won't happen as the taxpayer would end up picking up the tab to relocate people. A lot of people on here just want to get a cheap repossessed house, to hell with what the taxpayer will have to pick up.
We don't really know where the repossessions are going to happen.
There is one thing I know though. On my parents street of circa 65 houses in a very wanted area in South Dublin, there is a plasterer across the road with a 600k mortgage that he hasn't touch in two years. There is a window fitter with two houses on the street and around 800k left on both mortgages, which he hasn't payed a cent on in four years. There is a mechanic 10 doors up, been out of work for over a year and hasn't paid a cent towards his 550k mortgage in two. The bricky at the top of the road is gone for over year with his family. Not sure if the bank knows or cares. House is vacant and falling into disrepair.
All have gone on Holidays this year except my father. My father is questioning why he is paying anything and he can't be the only one.
Plenty of people were given unsustainable mortgages in the 500-700k range, that has to be dealt with. The man on the street isn't stupid, the threat of repossession is what makes most people pay up. Remove the threat, remove the payments.0 -
Oh, where does one start:
The point of NAMA is to maximise the return for the taxpayer, everyone here is talking about how their taxes are bailing people out, doen't it make sense for the properties to achieve as much as possible for the taxpayer, you release them all at once the price will be lower.
[*]Lack of repossessions (yes this happens in a normal functioning market)
Politically unpalatable any party that instigates it will be hounded out of office, also better not to dump them all on the market at once, but to do it slowly and maintain price increases.
[*]Artificial lack of supply caused by 1 & 2 above
See points above.
[*]Higher percentage of cash buyers than normal (this well will run dry eventually)
Lot of people waited out the boom and saved, also a lot of people have other investments that they've cashed in, shock horror!
[*]Government interference in property market in the form of Rent Allowance (i.e. Artificial floor for rents keeping them high)
It's been discussed before that rent allowance has nothing to do with high rents, again supply and demand, most landlords want professionals and there's plenty of them (in Dublin) to meet the available places to rent.
None of these happen in a steady functioning property market.
Can you really, hand on heart claim that Ireland has a normal functioning property market?
Also, people won't put their houses up for sale in a market with no returns. I really don't know what's so hard to understand here in relation to repossessions flooding the market, it wont happen, whether they're repossessed or not. Neither the banks or the government are going to depress prices purposely, house prices and economic growth are too closely linked.0 -
The Spider wrote: »A. it depends on where you work, if you work in Dublin 4, unless you're earning close to 400 grand a year it's highly unlikely you can buy a house close to work.
It is a normal market, supply and demand are the things that drive the market, if there's lots of supply and less demand, prices will be cheaper, if there's limited supply and lot of demand prices will be more expensive, that's the basics.
Fair has nothing to do with it, life isn't fair some people do nothing and get everything, other people work their asses off and get nothing that's life.
Again, you really need to look at this cold, and without emotion and see what's best for you, irregardless of what may or may not happen.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/rising-house-prices-bolsters-consumer-confidence-but-sentiment-still-cautious-241532.html
The above link connects rising house prices to the economy doing well, you'd better believe that's what everyone wants.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09/has-irelands-world-beating-housing-bust-ended/
This link points to housing in recovery, australian link, it's being reported around the world, investors are back, any nama releases, if any will be snapped up by them.
There won't be repo's in any numbers and I predict budget 2014 will be easier than people expect to give the economy and house prices recovery time.
I have to wonder who exactly can afford to buy some of these houses. I dont know what pay bracket he falls into or the area hes looking in but its not a good sign when people cant afford to buy houses.0 -
Potatoeman wrote: »I have to wonder who exactly can afford to buy some of these houses. I dont know what pay bracket he falls into or the area hes looking in but its not a good sign when people cant afford to buy houses.
They can afford to buy them, just not in the areas that there's high demand, that's a market at work.0 -
The Spider wrote: »They can afford to buy them, just not in the areas that there's high demand, that's a market at work.
And the upshot is that it'll force more of the lower paid scrotes out of our capital, and relocate them to a substandard quality estate located on a flood plain in somewhere like Cavan or Leitrim
After all, we can't have the great and good of our society, such as the marbles-in-mouth spoken Mr. Stafford losing their standing in the eyes of society....0 -
The Spider wrote: »They can afford to buy them, just not in the areas that there's high demand, that's a market at work.
I'm not sure whether your trying to stir controversy or whether you've so many property plays yourself, that your posts are just an attempt at self reassurance!!!
The market is not at work...can you not see that. Current volumes are about 1/3 of what they should be if the market was working. That lack of supply is what is driving the recent surge in peices.
Can you not see that :rolleyes:0 -
I'm not sure whether your trying to stir controversy or whether you've so many property plays yourself, that your posts are just an attempt at self reassurance!!!
The market is not at work...can you not see that. Current volumes are about 1/3 of what they should be if the market was working. That lack of supply is what is driving the recent surge in peices.
Can you not see that :rolleyes:
Jay, that poster seems all over the place tbh, hes taking about 'the market' working as intended on the one hand, while ruling out other things that are necessary for capitalism to function properly as they're in his words 'politically unpalatable'.
The country is in it's current state due to many decisions not being taken as they were seen to be 'politically unpalatable'. It's all based on the political gombeen vision that stretches no further than the next election, no long term planning whatsover.:mad:0 -
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I'm not sure whether your trying to stir controversy or whether you've so many property plays yourself, that your posts are just an attempt at self reassurance!!!
The market is not at work...can you not see that. Current volumes are about 1/3 of what they should be if the market was working. That lack of supply is what is driving the recent surge in peices.
Can you not see that :rolleyes:
Sigh! I'm not trying to stir controversy, why is it that if you've an opinion that differs from the majority here who are let's face it hoping to buy a cheaper property you get castigated?
Volumes are at 1/3 because people aren't selling, they're waiting for prices to continue to increase, and lack of supply is the market at work, people don't have to sell their houses, unless forced and repos don't suit the people or the banks....yet!
All I say is that there's a lot of emotion around here, people are refusing to look at this cold, and decide the best course of action. Last time prices rose they did so for 15 years, that's what you have to take into account, prices are rising now, will they have risen more by this time next year?
That is the cold hard fact that you have to assess, and then you have to be honest who does higher prices benefit versus who lower prices benefit, which is best for the country, in the immediate future what's going to get the economy going and people spending again.
Now the government, banks, people are all going to try do what's going to get the economy going again, that's what they're aiming for and house prices dropping doesn't sound like part of the plan.
So if that's what plan is, then if you're buying you'd better take all of that into account, and not hope and wish and think that anyone has your interests at heart.0 -
Cuddlesworth wrote: »We don't really know where the repossessions are going to happen.
There is one thing I know though. On my parents street of circa 65 houses in a very wanted area in South Dublin, there is a plasterer across the road with a 600k mortgage that he hasn't touch in two years. There is a window fitter with two houses on the street and around 800k left on both mortgages, which he hasn't payed a cent on in four years. There is a mechanic 10 doors up, been out of work for over a year and hasn't paid a cent towards his 550k mortgage in two. The bricky at the top of the road is gone for over year with his family. Not sure if the bank knows or cares. House is vacant and falling into disrepair.
All have gone on Holidays this year except my father. My father is questioning why he is paying anything and he can't be the only one.
Plenty of people were given unsustainable mortgages in the 500-700k range, that has to be dealt with. The man on the street isn't stupid, the threat of repossession is what makes most people pay up. Remove the threat, remove the payments.
You seem to know an awful lot about your neighbours or are you just guessing?
Even if that is the case those house are presumably valuable and would be in high demand if they came on the market and thus who knows what price they may fetch.
If they were to be repossessed it would be a long drawn out battle and if they are primary residences you could be waiting a while for the owners to vacate.
As for the houses of the professional classes in south Dublin these again are high value properties and again if they are primary residences the banks will have some job shifting those folk from their abodes.
I doubt we will see many repossessions of people from primary residences.0 -
Tigerandahalf wrote: »You seem to know an awful lot about your neighbours or are you just guessing?
Even if that is the case those house are presumably valuable and would be in high demand if they came on the market and thus who knows what price they may fetch.
If they were to be repossessed it would be a long drawn out battle and if they are primary residences you could be waiting a while for the owners to vacate.
As for the houses of the professional classes in south Dublin these again are high value properties and again if they are primary residences the banks will have some job shifting those folk from their abodes.
I doubt we will see many repossessions of people from primary residences.
Each house is currently worth about 400-450(property price register). Repossession would in most cases lead to small losses for the banks, but a huge loss for the mortgage holders, as most climbed the "ladder" to get there and believe they own more of their property's than they actually do.
My father works in the trade and is friendly with the lot, has employed some of them for work at times. Its in his interests to maintain relationships with them. They are quite open about their lack of mortgage payments. They are also very open about their complete inability to pay due to wage or job loses.
I have no idea how the professional classes on the street are coping, since my father would not have the same relationships with them. My last and current area would not be a-typical of the South Dublin discussed here, so I can't relate the same circumstance to my experience.
If you can't address the problem of repossessing a primary residence and you can't keep that a secret from the general populace, then you will keep seeing climbing mortgage arrears throughout the country. Which is exactly what we are seeing, even though our economy is becoming somewhat stable.
If I was a mortgage holder I would be sorely tempted to stop making payments. There are close to 148k mortgages in front of me that the courts have to get through first. I'd pay a nominal amount each month, drag out a sob story and see what happens. My father is considering the same thing, can't say I'd blame him.0 -
The Spider wrote: »...
Volumes are at 1/3 because people aren't selling, they're waiting for prices to continue to increase, and lack of supply is the market at work, people don't have to sell their houses, unless forced and repos don't suit the people or the banks....yet!
There is a limbo situation.
Some people aren't selling because they cannot afford to sell.
Some are so far in negative equity that they won't see the light for decades.
Others are still of the opinion that their property is stuck in 2006 and when they do put it on the market the asking prices are crazy.
I can show you listing on Daft or Myhome that have been there for years.
The are other properties on which no repayments have been made in years.
Even in Ireland in the past these type of properties would have been repossessed.
It is only in the last 6 odd years that repossessions have become so uncommon.
Added to that there aren't really many new builds coming on the market.
I can not understand how you see the supply being choked being the market at work.The Spider wrote: »All I say is that there's a lot of emotion around here, people are refusing to look at this cold, and decide the best course of action. Last time prices rose they did so for 15 years, that's what you have to take into account, prices are rising now, will they have risen more by this time next year?
I presume you are talking about late 80s, or 90s onwards.
We had a functioning growing economy with fully functioning banks who were in competition.
We had our best ever enconomic years in the 90s to very early 2000s and for the next few years we had the cheapest most highly available credit ever.
Comparing the present and immediate future with 20 or 15 odd years ago is a nonsense.The Spider wrote: »That is the cold hard fact that you have to assess, and then you have to be honest who does higher prices benefit versus who lower prices benefit, which is best for the country, in the immediate future what's going to get the economy going and people spending again.
Now the government, banks, people are all going to try do what's going to get the economy going again, that's what they're aiming for and house prices dropping doesn't sound like part of the plan.
Oh FFS.
When will you realise that an economy should not depend on the price of property and it should be the other way around.
Did the economic growth of the 90s come due to rising house prices or was it the other way around ?
Think about it.Tigerandahalf wrote: »You seem to know an awful lot about your neighbours or are you just guessing?
Even if that is the case those house are presumably valuable and would be in high demand if they came on the market and thus who knows what price they may fetch.
If they were to be repossessed it would be a long drawn out battle and if they are primary residences you could be waiting a while for the owners to vacate.
As for the houses of the professional classes in south Dublin these again are high value properties and again if they are primary residences the banks will have some job shifting those folk from their abodes.
I doubt we will see many repossessions of people from primary residences.
So even if the people have not been paying their mortgages for 3 or 4 years you still see them not being repossessed ?
If people get away without paying mortgages for that long then the incentive for others to continue meeting their obligations goes out the window.
Cuddlesworth is right above when they say where is the incentive for their father to continue paying when he sees the guys along the street not paying a penny.
And that would lead to the banks making it almost impossible for people to get mortgages in the future without massive interest rates.I am not allowed discuss …
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Increases in interest rates leads to decreases in property prices...
I know and less mortgages mean decreases in prices.
My point was that if we do not have repossessions for long term non payers, then moral hazard is out the window and banks become very careful about lending to anyone.I am not allowed discuss …
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I know and less mortgages mean decreases in prices.
My point was that if we do not have repossessions for long term non payers, then moral hazard is out the window and banks become very careful about lending to anyone.
So this could be the crooks of the issue...
non payment of mortgages will lead to increased interest rates and more restrictions on lending from the banks...
This will lead to less mortgages and further decreases in property prices..0 -
So this could be the crooks of the issue...
non payment of mortgages will lead to increased interest rates and more restrictions on lending from the banks...
This will lead to less mortgages and further decreases in property prices..
Already happening, its just being masked by the cash rich buyers who believe we have hit bottom. The second prices dip again, they will scatter.0 -
Cuddlesworth wrote: »
If I was a mortgage holder I would be sorely tempted to stop making payments. There are close to 148k mortgages in front of me that the courts have to get through first. I'd pay a nominal amount each month, drag out a sob story and see what happens. My father is considering the same thing, can't say I'd blame him.
Can I ask where you got this number from?0 -
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The Spider wrote: »Explain how?
Constructive posts only. While you argue you point later, this post looks like it is there just to rile people up.
Moderator0
This discussion has been closed.
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