Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

Cuddlesworth

cookie1977 wrote: »

Are repossessions done in order or does the bank decide who they want to go after depending on the value of the property versus the outstanding debt? You could jump to the queue very quickly depending on circumstances.

You could end up at the top very quickly. Question is, when my father is at two years and 30k people are at four years, will the bank have a easy time explaining to the court that my father should lose his primary residence over the other 30k people? I could sense some difficulties in that.

Villa05

Interesting article from Karl Deeter on the Journal.

While the journal may have a younger demographic, the thumbs up in the comments section would indicate a massive majority support the content of the article, while those that are in trouble are more vocal and want to blame everyone but themselves.

Are we in danger of thinking that the crowd at one side of the fence is greater because they make more noise, when, in fact the people at the other side of the fence are much more numerous but have no voice?
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/column-mortgages-are-contracts-%E2%80%93-its-not-ok-for-them-to-be-dishonoured-1082433-Sep2013/

Is housing policy about affordability and sustainability or is it about maximising a persons stay in a property they can’t afford to pay for?
Alas, we have also have no numbers right?
Wrong. In AIB there are 40,000 arrears accounts, a full 50 per cent have not filled in a Standard Financial Statement (SFS), this is the document you have to submit to get a resolution. They were introduced years ago and are key to avoiding repossession.
The 6,000 ‘repo threats’ they sent out and were admonished for resulted in a 33 per cent re-engagement of those borrowers, and 2,000 started to pay again. In the UK the legal threat results in a 70 per cent re-engagement. And let us not forget, that the letter only went out to those who were both non-engaging and at least 2.5-3 years behind on repayments.........

Class warfare

That’s what this is really all about, after this crash what we seem to want is that nobody loses, so the middle class and well of will stay that way while the poor remain shut out from middle-class welfare systems.
The perfection of it is that we get the lower class to do the fighting for them, convincing them that it is their fight and their future wealth at stake. It’s a master-stroke of class warfare, the best I have ever seen.

Villa05

cookie1977 wrote: »

Are repossessions done in order or does the bank decide who they want to go after depending on the value of the property versus the outstanding debt? You could jump to the queue very quickly depending on circumstances.

The arrears crisis has gone on for long enough for people to pick up on the tricks that drag out the legal issues and elongate the time the defaulter can spend in the house at the minimum cost.
A strategic defaulter would have done their homework on this I would suspect

Potatoeman

cookie1977 wrote: »

Sorry but explain to me why they cant?If every landlord is being hit the same then they will pass it on ifthey see others doing it. You're relying on a majority not but itdoes not mean it will happen. Look how rents are rising in dublindespite nama. Rents are rising due to demand (lack of supply) andcosts such as increased interest rates or landlords coming offinterest only and property tax.

That depends on how many actually have large mortgages. I would say rents are rising in Dublin because of NAMA.

jmayo wrote: »

Because much like the rental of commericalpremises in shopping centres and major streets in our cities andtowns, a point may be reached where people just cannot afford it.

Of course maybe then it becomes much cheaper to buy than rent.

Another option is that people just reckon it is just too dammexpensive to live here and emigrate.



You some have being arguing elsewhere (high mortgage repaymentsand need for pesonal debts to be cut) you can not have a functioningeconomy (consumer spending) where people are spending almost alltheir net income purely on accommodation.

I think its already happening. Where Iwork they seem to be hiring contractors and one of them moved to France last month as he had no stability with contact work and waspaying a higher percent of his wages here on accommodation than hewould there. He was Irish, the other non-Irish contractors don'tintend to stay in Ireland. They are living as cheaply as they cansaving as much as possible so they can move home in a few years orwhen they can't get work.

gaius c

Potatoeman wrote: »

That depends on how many actually have large mortgages. I would say rents are rising in Dublin because of NAMA.



I think its already happening. Where Iwork they seem to be hiring contractors and one of them moved to France last month as he had no stability with contact work and waspaying a higher percent of his wages here on accommodation than hewould there. He was Irish, the other non-Irish contractors don'tintend to stay in Ireland. They are living as cheaply as they cansaving as much as possible so they can move home in a few years orwhen they can't get work.

Big time. Ireland used to be a choice destination for MNC expats (pharma) because tax was low and they got bang for their buck. Now our clients can't get the quality of engineers that they used to get and one of the reasons coming back is "What? Is that all I get for my money?" when it comes to accommodation.

gaius c

cookie1977 wrote: »

Be careful. Burgess is a bit of a fool. with some bizarre unpopular ideas..

I wouldn't necessarily consider the commenter's on Broadsheet the "ordinary folk" either (more akin to after hours folk).

Brendan might have his "issues" and I would be amongst that number but he was taking on the likes of George Mordaunt ("I couldn't possibly live in a 3 bed semi") and Caroline Lennon-Nally ("I can't pay my mortgage because I have to pay hundreds of euro a month on personal grooming") when it was still an unpopular stance to take.

uberalles

In London in the 80s people often lived in squats to avoid rent for a few months at a time. When a letter arrived to say an eviction was in x days they moved out.

Fast forward to present times and an ever growing number of people still want free accommodation, but this time its Ireland and they ignore the eviction threat.

How long can someone expect to pay 0 and get away with it? 5 years? 6 years? 10 years?

Can gets kicked down the road.

Can I have a mortgage please ASAP. An Irish one. Hey lets all do it. Free accommodation again ....... yeeeehar

Waiter .... yet another bottle of your second most expensive campaign.

Hiiiiiiiiiiiiic

You have a bill waiter and you need it settled ? Please pass it to the next table there .... i.e. the next few generations, they will pick up the tab!

Bob24

uberalles wrote: »

How long can someone expect to pay 0 and get away with it? 5 years? 6 years? 10 years?

Can gets kicked down the road.

Can I have a mortgage please ASAP. An Irish one. Hey lets all do it. Free accommodation again ....... yeeeehar

This article is a few months old, but if you haven't already read it yet you might find it quite helpful in answering these questions (if you don't want to read everything, just look at the first 2 graphs - they pretty much sum it up): http://qz.com/50615/welcome-to-ireland-where-house-payments-are-optional-apparently/

4 times more mortgages in arrears than Greece, and 7 time more than Italy or Spain ... Welcome to Ireland!

Villa05

I wish we could get Colm McCarthy to be the voice of reason to tear David Hall apart.

Excellent debate on Gerorge Lee's The business
http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A20437775%3A172%3A14%2D09%2D2013%3A

Colm in reply to Shane Ross

"I'm reluctant to get into a compassion debate with an elected TD from a constituency where people can't put bread on the table such as South Dublin"

Shane Ross who hailed Anglo Irish Bank during the bubble having his ass handed to him on a plate

Zamboni

Ross Maguire from New Beginnings on Newstalk this morning - basically advocating voluntary surrender, sale of house and a split between the lender and the borrower for the debt overhang.
The catch - The borrower only has to to pay what they can afford for a 5 year period and the bank writes of the rest.
I would prefer a straightforward 50/50 split of debt overhang.

Bob24

Zamboni wrote: »

The catch - The borrower only has to to pay what they can afford for a 5 year period and the bank writes of the rest.
I would prefer a straightforward 50/50 split of debt overhang.

Yes if there is no better way to monitor people's assets and cash-flow than for the original mortgage repayments, I can see a lot of people who wouldn't be able afford any repayment on the split but could afford a holiday or a new car ...

Aside from this ... probably not a bad idea.

jay0109

Villa05 wrote: »

I wish we could get Colm McCarthy to be the voice of reason to tear David Hall apart.

Excellent debate on Gerorge Lee's The business
http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A20437775%3A172%3A14%2D09%2D2013%3A

Colm in reply to Shane Ross

"I'm reluctant to get into a compassion debate with an elected TD from a constituency where people can't put bread on the table such as South Dublin"

Shane Ross who hailed Anglo Irish Bank during the bubble having his ass handed to him on a plate

Heard that interview. McCarthy really stuck it up to Ross and the Union lad. Plain and straight talking as usual. He managed to get the word 'banjaxed' into the same sentence twice, for extra impact!:D
Only problem was that George Lee did'nt give it enough time

jay0109

Zamboni wrote: »

Ross Maguire from New Beginnings on Newstalk this morning - basically advocating voluntary surrender, sale of house and a split between the lender and the borrower for the debt overhang.
The catch - The borrower only has to to pay what they can afford for a 5 year period and the bank writes of the rest.
I would prefer a straightforward 50/50 split of debt overhang.

I would agree with your 50-50 split, but right now....given the amount of publicity that Hall etc is drumming up for debt forgiveness, I'd take that 5 year write off period. As Long as the house was surrendered.

Better than the appalling alternative of keeping the gaff and having the debt wrote off or some can-kicking deal put in place for 20 years...and it does give people a 2nd chance to make a go of their lifes

jmayo

cookie1977 wrote: »

Are repossessions done in order or does the bank decide who they want to go after depending on the value of the property versus the outstanding debt? You could jump to the queue very quickly depending on circumstances.

It is not just as bob24 mentioned about location and how sellabe the property.

If the mortgage is with Ulster, KBC, NIB, or whoever now owns the BOSI loanbook there is greater chance of repossession.
It is the Irish owned banks, particularly the ones fully in government hands, who will drag their ar**es.

Zamboni wrote: »

Ross Maguire from New Beginnings on Newstalk this morning - basically advocating voluntary surrender, sale of house and a split between the lender and the borrower for the debt overhang.
The catch - The borrower only has to to pay what they can afford for a 5 year period and the bank writes of the rest.
I would prefer a straightforward 50/50 split of debt overhang.

Just maybe they finally realise there are enough people out there who will not stomach debt writeoffs and continued ownership, or maybe just maybe they have copped on the banks will not and cannot afford to give them a full deal.

Of course ex New Beginings boyo david hall together with vinnie's favourite economist constance gurdgiev over in the Irish mortgages Holders Organisation don't seem to have even formulated that view.

BTW who exactly does the Irish Mortgages Holders Organisation represent ?
Aren't they taking a liberty by claiming they represent all mortgage holders when really all they do is represent a lot of people who want to welch on their debts and make life even harder for the ones who are actually compliant mortgage holders.

gaius c

Villa05 wrote: »

I wish we could get Colm McCarthy to be the voice of reason to tear David Hall apart.

Excellent debate on Gerorge Lee's The business
http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A20437775%3A172%3A14%2D09%2D2013%3A

Colm in reply to Shane Ross

"I'm reluctant to get into a compassion debate with an elected TD from a constituency where people can't put bread on the table such as South Dublin"

Shane Ross who hailed Anglo Irish Bank during the bubble having his ass handed to him on a plate

Karl Deeter had a good go at him on twitter.

Potatoeman

jmayo wrote: »

It is not just as bob24 mentioned about location and how sellabe the property.

If the mortgage is with Ulster, KBC, NIB, or whoever now owns the BOSI loanbook there is greater chance of repossession.
It is the Irish owned banks, particularly the ones fully in government hands, who will drag their ar**es.




Just maybe they finally realise there are enough people out there who will not stomach debt writeoffs and continued ownership, or maybe just maybe they have copped on the banks will not and cannot afford to give them a full deal.

Of course ex New Beginings boyo david hall together with vinnie's favourite economist constance gurdgiev over in the Irish mortgages Holders Organisation don't seem to have even formulated that view.

BTW who exactly does the Irish Mortgages Holders Organisation represent ?
Aren't they taking a liberty by claiming they represent all mortgage holders when really all they do is represent a lot of people who want to welch on their debts and make life even harder for the ones who are actually compliant mortgage holders.

I wonder why no one has chalanged them on this as ot would mean far higher interest rates for those who pay.

There is also the situation where people may be unemployed since the bust and have no hope of repaying anything over 200k. It would make more sense to rent these at a loss and live somewhere smaller rather than running up more debt.

Bob24

Potatoeman wrote: »

I wonder why no one has chalanged them on this as ot would mean far higher interest rates for those who pay.

I think that as mentioned here before, they unfortunately manage to cultivate a public image of an group who is defending the poor people against the bad bankers and politicians - while of course they are just defending their own interest against the bankers, the politicians, and most of the people(ie anyone who doesn't have a mortgage badly in arrears in this country).

Because of that you have to be very brave to challenge them in public (they will say that if you are against them you are against the people and with the bankers - this is obliviously wrong but sadly nowdays calling someone a friend of the bankers works pretty well to destroy their credibility with the public, regardless of it being true or not).

gaius c

By the way, please get the name right. It is New Beggings!

Mustard1972

They will be extremely selective on their repos.

Example
Two people living in the same house next door to each other who borrowed the same amount at the same rate 15 years ago.
Lets say the houses were bought for 500k each. And are worth 250k now.

Person 1 hasnt paid their mortgage in 2 years and now owes say 350k, and is working away earning plenty of money.

Person 2 hasnt paid their mortgage in 1 year, but overpaid for all they were worth when they were working, but fell on hard times and now owes 200k.

Nothing in it for the bank to repo person 1s house but a writedown.
But person 2, even though they have been the better customer will get repod first because the bank can turn around the house and take no hit.

Thats what is in store if there are repos. The worse off you are in neg eq the more likely you are to be left alone.

Villa05

Property market recovery underway in Tullow, Co Carlow. Constituency of our great minister Pill Hogan. No Paddy shenanigans going on here

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=45527

jmayo

Villa05 wrote: »

Property market recovery underway in Tullow, Co Carlow. Constituency of our great minister Pill Hogan. No Paddy shenanigans going on here

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=45527

So Tullow will recover but meanwhile there is an entire finished, albeit I believe now plundered, estate in Carlow unsold and empty ?

Villa05

Interesting that German austerity is tougher than ours. How long will they tolerate diverting cash to prop up more generous welfare schemes in other lands

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/technology/germany-s-working-poor-put-merkel-on-the-defensive-1.1518896?page=1

uberalles

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting that German austerity is tougher than ours. How long will they tolerate diverting cash to prop up more generous welfare schemes in other lands

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/technology/germany-s-working-poor-put-merkel-on-the-defensive-1.1518896?page=1

Its a welfare wonderland here compared to Germany.

The_Conductor

uberalles wrote: »

Its a welfare wonderland here compared to Germany.

Too true.
Our entire system has been out of kilter for a long time.
There is a small, but not insignificant, cadre, who have little incentive to actively seek gainful employment- as they have too much to loose- when you start to enumerate entitlements, the gross salary someone would have to earn to provide a commensurate income- becomes staggering. The lack (or very low level) of a minimum wage in Germany- is a little odd- when you consider Merkel's heritage though.

Bob24

uberalles wrote: »

Its a welfare wonderland here compared to Germany.

I am not sure I would go that far ... Sweden or France, sure, but Ireland?

I would tend to agree there is an issue with how the welfare budget is allocated to different areas here ... but overall Ireland far from being a crazy spender in that department.

I could only find data from 2007, but here is a comparison of a couple of developed countries - what it mostly shows is that Ireland does not have a very generous pension system compared to many European countries - but otherwise there is no huge gap:



I think there problem here is more about using public money to pay for private debt ... being debt of individuals, businesses, or banks.

BOHSBOHS

posting a graph from 6 years ago ?

you will find weve had a wee fall in gdp since then
and some increases in amounts ( rates) and claimants (unemployment/pensioners) since then

so a mere two years later in 2009 that 17% was already up to 26% and climbing

jobseekers allowance/da/opf/fa should taper off to a subsistence level
to make min wage work a viable option.

Bob24

BOHSBOHS wrote: »

posting a graph from 6 years ago ?
you will find weve had a wee fall in gdp since then
and some increases in amounts ( rates) and claimants (unemployment/pensioners) since then
so a mere two years later in 2009 that 17% was already up to 26% and climbing

Partly true, but on the other end it is clear that when the economy goes bad there will be more pressure on the social welfare system.

Taking a time when both economies are doing bad or both are doing good is probably a better way to compare the generosity of 2 systems that when one is bad and the other is good.

Plus I did some more research and found pretty good data on the OECD website (figures from from 1980 to 2013), and it pretty much tells the same story as the 2007 data even though of course Ireland did catch up a bit: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=4549#

Potatoeman

It depends on what they include in the study. If its basic payments excludung rent allowance it would be a different picture.

Bob24

Their website is actually very good to analyse the data. If you use the 'Branch' filter you can look at specific categories of social spending.

If you look at unemployment benefits the data only goes up to 2009 and Ireland is indeed the highest of all countries I had listed with 2.6% of GDP (vs 1.7 for Germany). But then if you factor in the unemployment rate in both countries that year ...

Villa05

It would appear that AIB are offering full debt write-off if the customer in arrears sells the house. Wonder if this is a widespread solution or only applied to customers with little or no income.

Good deal for the borrower, the market and to a lesser extent the taxpayer as legal proceeding costs are avoided, however the taxpayer will bear the shortfall.

It would be interesting to know if PTSB are offering the same in their "voluntary" sale arrangements

At least Hall and his team of PIPS won't get any of there greasy fingers on money in these type of deals which would add costs to the taxpayer, I hope

AIB will let customers walk away debt free if they sell their house, even if the price is less than enough to pay off the home loan......
The option of an "assisted voluntary sale" is one of the most frequently made offers to customers of Permanent TSB.

However, anyone turning down the chance to sell faces repossession.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/how-lenders-have-been-dealing-with-those-in-trouble-29592223.html