Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

The Spider

Constantin Gurdgiev forecasting a continuing rise in Dublin, looks like Lima won't be buying for a while.

Summary of the article:

In brief:

Good news is prices are growing broadly in-line with inflation plus modest recovery in values.
Further good news, Dublin prices are converging up toward national levels - something that should have happened ages ago.
More good news: prices outside of Dublin are slowly correcting down, declining 2.6% y/y in August.
I think we can call turnaround in prices to be sustained for Dublin and getting closer to showing sustained upward dynamics for national level prices. Prices for Apartments and prices for properties outside of Dublin are still in declining or flat mode.
Headwinds and risks remain on the side of mortgages crisis resolution and income dynamics.

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Seriously, you're really saying that......


Again just to spell it out to you good folk, people renting are paying for a service, the public will be no more annoyed about the being kicked out for non payment as they would be for someone kicked out of their hotel because their credit card bounced.

Of course people who own property, even if they haven't bothered their ar**es repaying the mortgages on them, are more deserving than anyone else who refuses to repay their dues. :rolleyes:

The Spider wrote: »

The entire country is behind any deal that means they don't have to pay their mortgage, the more people that get write offs the better it is for anyone with a mortgage precedence and all that.

If I said what I really want to say to that I would be banned for ever more.
To quote a famous sportsman "you cannot be serious".

BTW can you point me towards the magic money tree ? :rolleyes:

PS can you tell me how the government can force the likes of Start a privately owned institution to take a hit for the ones who cannot and possibly do not want to repay ?

lima wrote: »

The entire country is NOT behind any deal (which won't come about). What about all the under 35's who go in to a workforce having to pay high taxes to pay for some of these people who are refusing to pay for their mortgages?

Hey I am over 35 and didn't borrow more than i could repay and am all for foreclosures, reposessions, and no debt forgiveness mullarkey without bankruptcy etc.
Stop tarring us all with the same brush.

lima wrote: »

Don't pay rent = out!
Don't pay hotel = out!
Don't pay mortgage = (after all reasonable effort, blah, yawn,) out!

I will fight against these lobbyists, you over 35's and your sense of middle class entitlement is incredible. I will make every effort I can to make sure that repossessions happen and people get removed from the banks (who have the deeds) houses for paying nothing and pocketing money.

Also:
Don't overestimate these rural, unemployed undereducated boyos.
Don't underestimate the lack of empathy from young people who see people living in houses for free whilst they pay rent.

Kick them out on the street, in a council house, whatever, I could't care less for any family that is not mine of my friends.

Again FFS will you stop with your wholesale labelling bull****.
A lot of the ones playing the cute hoor are urbanites from Dublin, Cork, etc and a fair few under 35s are up to their ar**es in debt because they thought getting on the property ladder after leaving college or school was the path to riches.

The Spider wrote: »

Your efforts would be better spent focusing on your career and getting to a place where you can buy a house, instead of creating imaginary enemies.

Come on be honest you really mean his efforts would be better spent busting his ass so that freeloaders can walk away from their debts whilst still maintaining ownership of the asset associated with those debts ?

BTW don't you and your other half have a property in massive negative equity ?

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Constantin Gurdgiev forecasting a continuing rise in Dublin, looks like Lima won't be buying for a while.

Summary of the article:

In brief:

Good news is prices are growing broadly in-line with inflation plus modest recovery in values.
Further good news, Dublin prices are converging up toward national levels - something that should have happened ages ago.
More good news: prices outside of Dublin are slowly correcting down, declining 2.6% y/y in August.
I think we can call turnaround in prices to be sustained for Dublin and getting closer to showing sustained upward dynamics for national level prices. Prices for Apartments and prices for properties outside of Dublin are still in declining or flat mode.
Headwinds and risks remain on the side of mortgages crisis resolution and income dynamics.

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/

Would that be the same constance gurdgiev who is on the board of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation that has david hall out begging for writeoffs for strategic mortgage defaulters ?

Perhaps mr gurdgiev could tell us how much he would like written off his own debts ?

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Would that be the same constance gurdgiev who is on the board of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation that has david hall out begging for writeoffs for strategic mortgage defaulters ?

Perhaps mr gurdgiev could tell us how much he would like written off his own debts ?

And now you see how all the pieces are fitting together?

Writeoffs will happen....eventually.

Any repossessions if they happen in any amount will be on houses in positive equity that aren't meeting their repayments, repos on houses in negative equity will be the last thing that happens....with the remainder debt written off, but that's years away.

lima

D3PO wrote: »

changing your tune. You have always proclaimed you haven't bought as you cant afford to buy in the areas you want to as they are overpriced due to lack of repos ......

but then again don't let the truth get in the way of a good argument.

Huh?

It is high risk because if repossessions kick right now then house prices will go down... I havent bought because houses are overpriced because of lack or repossessions

I've been working crazy hours the last few days so maybe ive mistakenly suggested something, but from what I can see I am not changing my tune, can you explain and I can verify what I mean

lima

The Spider wrote: »

so you're probably better off not buying, and putting your money into something else.

Yes, you are right, I would not pay more than I should for property just because people are not paying their mortgages. It would be unfortunate to be priced out of the market before the natural floor is reached but I'd be happy to rent for the forseeable future as long as I had a reasonable alternative investment strategy.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Ha ha, you really are a funny chap, blow in from the sticks? true but I lived in Dublin for around 17 years, and can say I'm glad to be out of it, either way we still have a property in Dublin so that's good.

Actually there's a lot of people on this thread trying to convince themselves houses are going down instead of up, bananas.

To be honest, you shouldn't buy a house if you're not going to be happy in the area you can afford, I wouldn't and as I've said previously there's only certain areas in Dublin I'd live in. Those areas won't drop in price as everyone wants to live there, lack of supply, and it'll take years for the supply to reach the level of demand, with or without repossessions, so you're probably better off not buying, and putting your money into something else.

Sorry for personal attacks btw but your tone can wind me up

The Spider

lima wrote: »

Sorry for personal attacks btw but your tone can wind me up

No worries, I'm used to it, and my tone can wind people up.

D3PO

lima wrote: »

Yes, because they need to. Most of the houses in my range out there are awful, yet there is stock being withheld by people who haven't services their mortgages in over two years!! I mean come on!!!!

lima wrote: »

I can buy a house if I wanted, but as per above I find it high risk to buy in this crazy market

So really what your saying is you cant buy a house you want that you can afford as they are overpriced due to a lack of repos...

Cant see how Ive misconstrued what you have said but now your blaming it on a crazy market. That to me is a change in your tune.

keith16

cookie1977 wrote: »

A) it's after hours
it's after hours
C) it's after hours

So what? AH is more than capable of very reasoned debate, it's not the cuckoos nest.

lima

D3PO wrote: »

So really what your saying is you cant buy a house you want that you can afford as they are overpriced due to a lack of repos...

Cant see how Ive misconstrued what you have said but now your blaming it on a crazy market. That to me is a change in your tune.

A crazy market being a market where prices are rising due to lack of repossessions and vested interests propping up prices, e.g Nama

zl1whqvjs75cdy

keith16 wrote: »

So what? AH is more than capable of very reasoned debate, it's not the cuckoos nest.

O its very capable, its just a very rare beast.

Frank Lee Midere

The Spider wrote: »

Your efforts would be better spent focusing on your career and getting to a place where you can buy a house, instead of creating imaginary enemies.

Or go ahead and organise your little group I'd actually go along and bring some popcorn to watch a bunch of kids demanding people be thrown out of their homes, you wouldn't last two minutes.

Far better for the pro repossession people would be to organise renters to go on a rental strike and then man the barricades when the landlord tries to kick them out.

Better still if the landlord is a defaulter.

Frank Lee Midere

The Spider wrote: »

And now you see how all the pieces are fitting together?

Writeoffs will happen....eventually.

Any repossessions if they happen in any amount will be on houses in positive equity that aren't meeting their repayments, repos on houses in negative equity will be the last thing that happens....with the remainder debt written off, but that's years away.

You keep saying this but it's nonsense. Every single country in the world where repossessions take place happen when the owners can't pay. Negative equity doesn't matter.

The_Conductor

AIB, BOI and PTSB are going to come under the remit of the ECB from next June- as 3 of the 130 EU banks coming under the direct supervision of the ECB.
I cannot imagine the current approach (aka the ostrich approach) is going to cut any ice- once this happens. We're better off dealing with this in a firm but fair manner- while we can deal with it ourselves- any more mind games on the part of borrowers and/or lenders- will simply mean we'll end up with solutions being dictated to us by the ECB come June.

We deal with it for once and for all- immediately- or we rue the solutions that will be meted out to us.

Potatoeman

The Spider wrote: »

Seriously, you're really saying that......


Again just to spell it out to you good folk, people renting are paying for a service, the public will be no more annoyed about the being kicked out for non payment as they would be for someone kicked out of their hotel because their credit card bounced.

The entire country is behind any deal that means they don't have to pay their mortgage, the more people that get write offs the better it is for anyone with a mortgage precedence and all that.

That would mean increased intetest rates for anyone with an existing mortgage that is paying too. More than half of all property is fully paid off and has no mortgage either.

Boom__Boom

Fast-track process for BTL repossessions on the way by order of the Troika.

Should have already happened but at least there is some progress.

gaius c

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Fast-track process for BTL repossessions on the way by order of the Troika.

Should have already happened but at least there is some progress.

Source?

Boom__Boom

gaius c wrote: »

Source?

Was on SixOne news.

Included in the latest memo of understanding agreed between the government and the Troika.

lima

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Was on SixOne news.

Included in the latest memo of understanding agreed between the government and the Troika.

Super news

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/troika-impose-new-conditons-to-fast-track-property-repossessions-1.1541481

Villa05

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Fast-track process for BTL repossessions on the way by order of the Troika.

Should have already happened but at least there is some progress.

Were it not for the troika, there would be nothing done in this country

The Government is to consider introducing a fast-track court process to speed up repossessions of buy-to-let properties by the end of next month.

The commitment is one of several measures included in the latest memorandum of understanding between the Government and the Troika, covering the period to the end of the year.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0926/476679-troika-government/

jay0109

Villa05 wrote: »

Were it not for the troika, there would be nothing done in this country



http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0926/476679-troika-government/

I'd love to get excited about this but the Govt, NAMA, the various lobby groups from the Law Libraries and Ballygobackwards will create a classic Irish Fudge on this latest dictat and damn all will come of it that will have a real impact on supply:(

Tigerandahalf

How many BTLs would be houses and how many are apartments?
I would imagine a lot would be apartments bought in the boom period. Not many of these may be attractive and perhaps the banks know this and were waiting for the Troika to make the decision so the blame for any over-expected loss can be laid at their door.

gaius c

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

How many BTLs would be houses and how many are apartments?
I would imagine a lot would be apartments bought in the boom period. Not many of these may be attractive and perhaps the banks know this and were waiting for the Troika to make the decision so the blame for any over-expected loss can be laid at their door.

A lot of housing in provincial towns too. Think section 23.

Villa05

jay0109 wrote: »

I'd love to get excited about this but the Govt, NAMA, the various lobby groups from the Law Libraries and Ballygobackwards will create a classic Irish Fudge on this latest dictat and damn all will come of it that will have a real impact on supply:(

Once the threat of repossession is there and it can be done quickly, the whole game changes. It will move people to act. 15,000 letters were sent out to mortgage holders in long term arrears and not in communication with the bank on the issue. This head in the sand approach will end and people and banks will have no choice but to deal with it.

We probably wont see alot of repossessions but a carrot and stick approach to voluntary sales as PTSB is doing is probably the way to resolve this issue. Sell the house and the bank and customer share the shortfall.

The_Conductor

Not all the tax reliefs are expired Section 23s- some reliefs don't expire until 2019/2020 (esp. those in mixed commercial/residential developments). I'm going to hazard a guess- that there will be quite a number of landlords frantically totting up their sums to see if the tax relief is worth paying their arrears off post haste, this morning.......

Wonder what this will do for places like Carrick-on-Shannon........

The Spider

Over on the property pin, it looks like a lot of the long term bears have turned and are now saying a drop is unlikely, I'd tend to agree with these guys, I was of the same opinion as the vast majority of bears up until the end of 2011, there's now an acceptance that the bottom has been hit.

All on the below thread, of course there's a few people pointing towards some of the points brought up here in regard to banks etc. but the overall jist is that it's turned, I put a lot of stock in what these guys say, they kept me from buying at the peak, if they're saying it's done I'd listen.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=60882

jmayo

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

You keep saying this but it's nonsense. Every single country in the world where repossessions take place happen when the owners can't pay. Negative equity doesn't matter.

Ah but this is Ireland where our bubble was not going to bust and where the ones that are going to pay for it are the ones that didn't contribute to it.

Did anyone watch Primetime last night ?
They had piece with George Lee going around the country.
One woman in Sligo said there were signs of recovery because more "For Sale" signs had turned to "Sale Agreed".
FFS when are Irish people going to realise that an economic recovery is not a recovery of house sales and prices.

Then the best was to come when Denis Naughton and Aebhric McGibney (Dublin Cahmber of Commerce) were interviewed by pat kennys fillin David McCullagh.
McCullagh states that "property prices have a long way to go before they recover to peak" as he asks McGibney if he gets nervous about the figures of rising prices in Dublin.
McGibney fair play to him states that the figures are based on low number of transactions and that nobody wants the prices to return to boom day prices and that it is not how an economy shoudl be measured.

It is reassuring that at least someone appearing on RTE has a fooking clue.

As for prices increasing lets see what happens when repossessions finally start occurring, lets see what happens when NAMA finally release some apartments, lets see what happens after the next budget.

Oh and for anyone talking up the demand side, take a look at latest CSO figures which are stating that a big chunk of the ones emigrating are the educated already in work.

howamidifferent

jmayo wrote: »

Oh and for anyone talking up the demand side, take a look at latest CSO figures which are stating that a big chunk of the ones emigrating are the educated already in work.

This! In my opinion the 10% rise in Dublin prices is due to the people who have been waiting since the boom to buy and are now afraid of being priced out again. Cant and wont last.

Tigerandahalf

It didn't say what type of work they were in though. They could have been graduates working in a shop or restaurant as they couldn't find work in their area.
The report did say that twice as many from rural areas emigrated compared to urban but it didn't clarify what they meant by urban - big cities only or towns as well.
I wonder what percentage of houses in mortgage arrears are actually occupied.