Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

jmayo

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

It didn't say what type of work they were in though. They could have been graduates working in a shop or restaurant as they couldn't find work in their area.
The report did say that twice as many from rural areas emigrated compared to urban but it didn't clarify what they meant by urban - big cities only or towns as well.
I wonder what percentage of houses in mortgage arrears are actually occupied.

True it didn't break it down enough to categorically state exactly who were leaving, but it is fair to say a lot of the ones leaving would probably be seen as the next generation of home buyers if not those already in homes for a few years.
People working in shops and restaurants live in houses too and taking them out of the market has an affect.

And even if most are in non greater Dublin area it will have consequences for the Irish property market as a whole.

Thargor

The Spider wrote: »

Over on the property pin, it looks like a lot of the long term bears have turned and are now saying a drop is unlikely, I'd tend to agree with these guys, I was of the same opinion as the vast majority of bears up until the end of 2011, there's now an acceptance that the bottom has been hit.

All on the below thread, of course there's a few people pointing towards some of the points brought up here in regard to banks etc. but the overall jist is that it's turned, I put a lot of stock in what these guys say, they kept me from buying at the peak, if they're saying it's done I'd listen.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=60882

Errr no, thats the kind of spin the Irish Independent would put on that thread, I dont see how anyone could read that and come to the conclusions in your post, you're either lying or trolling.

The Spider

Thargor wrote: »

Errr no, thats the kind of spin the Irish Independent would put on that thread, I dont see how anyone could read that and come to the conclusions in your post, you're either lying or trolling.

Why would I lie and post a link to the thread?

Don't know how far you read into it, but there's a definite acceptance that the upturn is here for a while, the usual people shouting about troika, banks, emigration etc. But the longer term guys there have either bought or are in the process.

This is here for a while. Oh and while I'm here having a different opinion isn't trolling I think the economy is recovering and prices are rising, you don't. Who's right? well every day it's looking more and more like me.

Thargor

"A few people" is about >80% of the people in the thread, and even the 20% who do think the good times are here again are talking about a few select areas of SCD, none of the systemic stuff has been addressed.

Potatoeman

The problem with high house prices is the question of who can afford to live in them. If mortgage payments are under one third of income to be stable what percentage of the popularion can afford these prices?
I will say that rents in Dublin at the moment mean its cheaper to buy than to rent in certain areas.
You can buy an apt right in the city center for 125-150k but the rental floor is 900euro which is below mortgage payments.

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Over on the property pin, it looks like a lot of the long term bears have turned and are now saying a drop is unlikely, I'd tend to agree with these guys, I was of the same opinion as the vast majority of bears up until the end of 2011, there's now an acceptance that the bottom has been hit.

All on the below thread, of course there's a few people pointing towards some of the points brought up here in regard to banks etc. but the overall jist is that it's turned, I put a lot of stock in what these guys say, they kept me from buying at the peak, if they're saying it's done I'd listen.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=60882

Spider. Why don't you register there and post your ideas there? Going by what you say, there'll be limited resistance to your views and you'll be hailed as a forward-thinking prophet.












Yeah, thought not...

Potatoeman

gaius c wrote: »

Spider. Why don't you register there and post your ideas there? Going by what you say, there'll be limited resistance to your views and you'll be hailed as a forward-thinking prophet.












Yeah, thought not...

There wont be a floor as long as NAMA is still around.

Cuddlesworth

Potatoeman wrote: »

There wont be a floor as long as NAMA is still around.

In the long term and we are at long term now, NAMA's ability to influence the market will become limited as their own supply dwindles in comparison to a normal functioning market.

As has been said over and over again, Ireland as a country is now five years into a recession, with more austerity budgets and huge social problems developing around home ownership. I fail to see how rising house prices are going to help that.

Gloomtastic!

NAMA have released 12,000 new, previously unoccupied, apartments on to the rental market but rents have remained relatively stable and increased in major conurbations. Go figure!

ronan45

City housing bubble feared as prices soar by €3,000 a month
Shortage of family homes fuels 10pc hike in Dublin

:eek:


http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/city-housing-bubble-feared-as-prices-soar-by-3000-a-month-29614288.html

Mr O'Leary said: "The market is a bit too hot in Dublin and it will continue like that until a greater supply of property comes on to the market."

Unless more homes are built, the only way there will be more supply is if banks repossess and sell homes and investment properties that are in arrears, he said.

lima

ronan45 wrote: »

City housing bubble feared as prices soar by €3,000 a month
Shortage of family homes fuels 10pc hike in Dublin

:eek:


http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/city-housing-bubble-feared-as-prices-soar-by-3000-a-month-29614288.html

Mr O'Leary said: "The market is a bit too hot in Dublin and it will continue like that until a greater supply of property comes on to the market."

Unless more homes are built, the only way there will be more supply is if banks repossess and sell homes and investment properties that are in arrears, he said.

Can we make it a forum charter thing that irish independent links are banned? :rolleyes:

You should see the other tabloids too, talking about a 'boom' :rolleyes:

gaius c

lima wrote: »

Can we make it a forum charter thing that irish independent links are banned? :rolleyes:

You should see the other tabloids too, talking about a 'boom' :rolleyes:

Just when I was thinking the same thing, this got printed yesterday

Will the Government have to consider the unthinkable and introduce temporary incentives to get family home construction underway and head off a housing crisis? The alternative is to let property inflation hinder the recovery on the East coast because big prices equal big mortgages which in turn equal reduced consumer spending equal fewer jobs and less growth.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/mark-keenan-back-to-rampant-house-price-inflation-29612679.html

For the Sindo, that's pretty much revolutionary thinking.

riclad

heard on radio today,
houses in 1 estate being sold for 60k ,monaghan.
expert Said all buyers will need cash ,or credit union loans,

eg he said no BANK WILL GIVE anyone a mortage under 70k. WTF???
its not worth their while processing loans under 70k?
for a house.
even if you are a doctor etc you wont get a 60k mortgage,

SO EVEN if prices go down under 70k,
only cash buyers will be able to buy them.

i must be old,
i remember when most houses outside dublin were sold under 60k.
i presume people got mortgages on them,
pre 1993. era.
he also said the market is going up in dublin,
eg no of houses for sale is decreasing.

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

Spider. Why don't you register there and post your ideas there? Going by what you say, there'll be limited resistance to your views and you'll be hailed as a forward-thinking prophet.
Yeah, thought not...

Gaius c - consider yourself on an official warning.
If you disagree with what another forum member posts- refute the posts factually, without attacking the poster. Personalising an attack in the manner (above) will not be tolerated. If you want to continue posting in the forum- read the forum charter- and abide by it.

Regards,

The_Conductor

Potatoeman

riclad wrote: »

heard on radio today,
houses in 1 estate being sold for 60k ,monaghan.
expert Said all buyers will need cash ,or credit union loans,

eg he said no BANK WILL GIVE anyone a mortage under 70k. WTF???
its not worth their while processing loans under 70k?
for a house.
even if you are a doctor etc you wont get a 60k mortgage,

SO EVEN if prices go down under 70k,
only cash buyers will be able to buy them.

i must be old,
i remember when most houses outside dublin were sold under 60k.
i presume people got mortgages on them,
pre 1993. era.
he also said the market is going up in dublin,
eg no of houses for sale is decreasing.

Who was saying that? I remember the socalled financial experts on the rte news during the boom.

cookie1977

Gloomtastic! wrote: »

NAMA have released 12,000 new, previously unoccupied, apartments on to the rental market but rents have remained relatively stable and increased in major conurbations. Go figure!

NAMA released this number over the past 3 years. Some of which are located in the UK. These are not newly released properties.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/nama-warns-of-problems-retaining-staff-1.1540074

Mr Mulcahy gave a run through of Nama’s actions over the past three years. He said it had let out 12,000 apartments, which were mostly empty, in order to generate cash flow to support the loans it had assumed from the banks.

The_Conductor

Gloomtastic! wrote: »

NAMA have released 12,000 new, previously unoccupied, apartments on to the rental market but rents have remained relatively stable and increased in major conurbations. Go figure!

Predominantly in London. Most of the property they've released in the greater Dublin area is commercial rather than residential in nature (with a few notable exceptions- notably Bernard McNamara's developments).

Gloomtastic!

The_Conductor wrote: »

Predominantly in London. Most of the property they've released in the greater Dublin area is commercial rather than residential in nature (with a few notable exceptions- notably Bernard McNamara's developments).

But the IT article states that they've sold most of their 5,000 apartments in London 'leaving it to the locals'.

So they're lying!

Villa05

Potatoeman wrote: »

Who was saying that? I remember the socalled financial experts on the rte news during the boom.

Karl deeter, it is not true, you can get a mortgage of less than 70 k, 40k or under probably not

The_Conductor

Gloomtastic! wrote: »

But the IT article states that they've sold most of their 5,000 apartments in London 'leaving it to the locals'.

So they're lying!

Not lying- simply not telling the whole story.
People imagine that NAMA have tens of thousands of properties in the Dublin area they can magically complete and let to generate cashflow and help prospective buyers with. They don't. Also- the vast preponderance of their residential holdings were in the UK- something else that got very little coverage. They had more residential units in Wales than in Ireland, at one point. NAMA is not necessarily an 'Irish' vehicle for 'Irish' property- its a remarkable global organisation with holdings worldwide- but notably in the UK. Ireland and its ghost estates- are pretty much an afterthought.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not lying- simply not telling the whole story.
People imagine that NAMA have tens of thousands of properties in the Dublin area they can magically complete and let to generate cashflow and help prospective buyers with. They don't. Also- the vast preponderance of their residential holdings were in the UK- something else that got very little coverage. They had more residential units in Wales than in Ireland, at one point. NAMA is not necessarily an 'Irish' vehicle for 'Irish' property- its a remarkable global organisation with holdings worldwide- but notably in the UK. Ireland and its ghost estates- are pretty much an afterthought.

That's too much sense for one post

MortgageBroker

Villa05 wrote: »

Karl deeter, it is not true, you can get a mortgage of less than 70 k, 40k or under probably not

the 70k remark is based on a good average, not the minimum (which is currently PTsb). While you 'can' get this from permo, put in an application, on average it's taking a month turn around to AIP we are finding, and this wouldn't work on any quick sale deals like that described, thus the EA isn't accepting mortgages, only credit union loans and cash.

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not lying- simply not telling the whole story.
People imagine that NAMA have tens of thousands of properties in the Dublin area they can magically complete and let to generate cashflow and help prospective buyers with. They don't. Also- the vast preponderance of their residential holdings were in the UK- something else that got very little coverage. They had more residential units in Wales than in Ireland, at one point. NAMA is not necessarily an 'Irish' vehicle for 'Irish' property- its a remarkable global organisation with holdings worldwide- but notably in the UK. Ireland and its ghost estates- are pretty much an afterthought.

It would appear that they have been selling assets that are currently appreciating and hoarding assets that are depreciating

While Nama continues to make operating profits, namely taking in more money than it pays out, further impairment charges keep hampering its financial progress.

By the end of last year, it had made total impairment provisions on its loans of €3.26bn, less than two years after buying them. In effect, this means the agency has overpaid for the assets by €3.2bn..................
This is an appalling mess. Nama has been selling assets en masse in order to bring in chunks of money, which it can then use to pay back the €30bn in bonds it borrowed to buy these assets in the first place. It has already paid back about €7.5bn.

It has brought in around €9.2bn by selling stuff. Around 80 per cent of that has been in Britain, with London accounting for 63 per cent of it. This is because it could find buyers in London, which is a very liquid market

The London commercial property market is now very much on the up and if Nama could have hung on, it probably would have got a much better price. But it needed the money quickly to start paying down debt.

The problem is that London represented low-hanging fruit. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in commercial property in Ireland in the next few years, Nama will already have sold off its best stuff.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/richard-curran-namas-vista-is-deeply-worrying-29618226.html

gaius c

I have a bit of a problem with the "NAMA needs to make a profit" attitude.
The fact is that if NAMA makes a profit, it's doing it by forcing others to buy at over-the-odds prices by staving off the market floor and extracting money from future buyers that they shouldn't have to pay.
That diverts cash from being spent in the real economy and instead diverts it into the black hole labelled "debt".

uberalles

Anyone know if there are any BTL repros being "fast tracked" to market in any qty? And any time soon.

Considering buying at the mo and also considering holding off due to lack off tos see what arrives.

Im not looking for a 3 bed semi for 100K in SCD, but looking for more choice.

ezra_pound

uberalles wrote: »

Anyone know if there are any BTL repros being "fast tracked" to market in any qty? And any time soon.

Considering buying at the mo and also considering holding off due to lack off tos see what arrives.

Im not looking for a 3 bed semi for 100K in SCD, but looking for more choice.

That's a big ask. I can't see btl repos affecting Dublin scd 3 beds that much.

lima

uberalles wrote: »

Anyone know if there are any BTL repros being "fast tracked" to market in any qty? And any time soon.

Considering buying at the mo and also considering holding off due to lack off tos see what arrives.

Im not looking for a 3 bed semi for 100K in SCD, but looking for more choice.

I am keeping an eye out on city centre /D4/D6/D3 apartments, seems to be one or two being added every day but not as much as hoped. I have decided to hang on for 6 months or so before 'seriously' looking again but every now and again a nice property comes up but I reckon the good ones go quick - the only ones for same right now seems to be either bad quality or overpriced.

Then again I got mortgage approval this time last year and prices have gone up 10% so if the artificial strain on stock persists I may have missed the bottom. But I just couldn't buy anything of the low quality for sale right now so I'm just waiting for either (hopefully) repos making a dent or a decent quality property appearing that would represent relative value.

uberalles

ezra_pound wrote: »

That's a big ask. I can't see btl repos affecting Dublin scd 3 beds that much.

What makes you think there are very few repros to come on the market in SCD / and Wicklow while Im asking?

ezra_pound

uberalles wrote: »

What makes you think there are very few repros to come on the market in SCD / and Wicklow while Im asking?

You never mentioned Wicklow.

You said you were looking for a 3 bed semi d n scd for 100 k.

Now if you check daft.ie for 3 bed semis in Dublin under say 175k you'll be hard pressed to get one other than in certain areas of tallaght and vlondalkin on the south side and nowhere in scd.

3 bed semis in scd are exactly the type of home which has the most demand. You'd need a lot of btl repo pressure to halve the price.

Wicklow I don't know about and wasn't mentioned in your previous post.

Ray Palmer

uberalles wrote: »

What makes you think there are very few repros to come on the market in SCD / and Wicklow while Im asking?

I would suspect that being close to the major areas of employment in the country would mean less people in this area would be broke and unable to find employment. If in trouble you could probably sell easily too so not much need for the banks to repossess .

Then again why would you believe this given it was pointed out several times already and you didn't listen then