Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

cookie1977

gaius c wrote: »

Sorry to hear that Cookie. Hope it works out for you.

Ah cheers. No we're not in that bad a way. Certainly life choices have changed due to circumstances but I don't intend on loosing my home or going in to debt. Hence why we went with a pre arrears arrangement. A few more years and we'll be out of the worst as long as the government don't pile on more pressure.

Villa05

Hope everything works out for you Cookie

Ray Palmer

gaius c wrote: »

Fuel prices have dropped actually.

Really?

http://icampaigned.com/blog/price-of-petrol-and-diesel-in-ireland-1991-to-2012/

Obviously trending down:rolleyes:

gaius c wrote: »

"You can quote this flawed study by a national media publication and I will shoot it down with the superior weight of my anecdotes".

Incredibly witty. As I was talking about totally different things how relevant is that?

Do you actually agree with the sentiment that nobody was priced out of the market? That everybody got a mortgage and bought a property during the boom?

cookie1977

A lot where priced out of the market in the boom. I remember a lot of first time buyers that I knew used to rush in with offers of 317.5K on property which was the cut off point for them before they paid stamp duty which usually pushed them out of the market.

Ray Palmer

cookie1977 wrote: »

A lot where priced out of the market in the boom. I remember a lot of first time buyers that I knew used to rush in with offers of 317.5K on property which was the cut off point for them before they paid stamp duty which usually pushed them out of the market.

So it stands to reason that those people are potential FTBs now. There is obviously pent up demand and the uncertainty in the market was holding them back. Fear of rising house prices will make some of these jump in now.

It also stands to reason that these people would consider rising prices a bad thing but it doesn't mean they won't buy. The poll results have even less meaning when you consider that.

Villa05

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Well where is your analysis showing everybody who wanted a home got a mortgage and bought a house. I know more people waiting to buy then I know who bought. So according to you every body in their late 30s early 40s bought houses? That has no credibility. Considering all the way up in the boom people were complain house ownership was a right and they couldn't afford to get mortgages just screams how what you are saying is not true.

I have heard some silly things on the boom but this is high on the list of ridiculous comments. Strangely lots of people kept renting rather than buying a house and commuting to Dublin.

Never said everybody,
Do these figures indicate that there is pent up demand from FTB's as you state or do you think FTB's have been priced out of the market


FTB mortgage Drawdowns 2005 to 2013 (2013 figures are for the first 6 months)
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FTB 37879 37064 30469 19946 12684 10619 6300 8648 2528
Sales 20884 18252 25091 10976


Mortgage figures (Download to excel) http://www.ibf.ie/gns/publications/research/researchmortgagemarket.aspx

2005/2006: 62.3% of FTB mortgages were taken out by couples
http://www.esri.ie/pdf/OPEA049_First%20time%20Buyers.pdf
2005 figures involved 61,477 people
2006 figures involved 60,154 people

2013 figures on mortgage drawdowns and Sales indicate that more than 50% of purchases are cash, Estate agent anecdotes put Dublin cash sales much higher

Ray Palmer

Villa05 wrote: »

Never said everybody,
Do these figures indicate that there is pent up demand from FTB's as you state or do you think FTB's have been priced out of the market

Sorry you said very few people were priced out of the market. I take that to be less than 5%.
Why in any rational sense would those figures indicate anything on pent up demand one way or the other?
If you want a figure go find what the increase on renters is for pent up demand. You would also have to consider inward emigration.

I am not seeing a rational use of information. You might as well put up rain charts to make the same point.

johnnyskeleton

cookie1977 wrote: »

This is pretty shocking:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/most-mortgages-90-days-in-arrears-not-restructured-1.1579977

This is very poor on the banks part. If they're unwilling to deal with restructuring how in gods name does anyone here think they will deal with repossessions.

There needs to be significant pressure applied to the banks to look at restructuring first where possible before we see repossessions. And in light of the fact that the banks seem to be favouring loan extensions and interest only periods maybe some of them could start thinking more imaginatively about real solutions (and I dont mean debt write offs only) to deal with the problems. I live in hope.

Restructuring means things like extending the term of the mortgage, giving interest only periods, giving mortgage breaks, capitalising existing arrears, reduced repayments and, in some cases, partial write offs.

None of these things benefit the bank in monetary terms, but they are a way in which the mortgage can be returned to being a performing loan.

I suspect the problem here is that people know that the banks aren't really interested in repossessions on a large scale, and so when the bank tells them that they can restructure people are mostly saying "write off X% or I won't pay" and there is a deadlock.

The banks won't repossess and the borrowers won't pay. Both are hoping the other will blink first.

cookie1977

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Restructuring means things like extending the term of the mortgage, giving interest only periods, giving mortgage breaks, capitalising existing arrears, reduced repayments and, in some cases, partial write offs.

None of these things benefit the bank in monetary terms, but they are a way in which the mortgage can be returned to being a performing loan.

I suspect the problem here is that people know that the banks aren't really interested in repossessions on a large scale, and so when the bank tells them that they can restructure people are mostly saying "write off X% or I won't pay" and there is a deadlock.

The banks won't repossess and the borrowers won't pay. Both are hoping the other will blink first.

Those things can benefit the bank substantially in monetary terms. Especially if someone goes from cant pay to paying. And if the terms are extended and the client continues to pay then the bank will earn more interest then before.

"Most" people want to pay their debts and get on with their lives. Yes there are those holding out for better terms but holding out for most is not some party time relaxed atmosphere. It's a stressful time for most people particularly if they have a family.

Villa05

Mr Hall has found himself a nice little earner won't do much harm to his political ambitions either after he dumped Fianna Fail when the sh** hit the fan.

HOMEOWNERS who can't pay their AIB mortgages will have access to a new negotiation service led by consumer champion David Hall.............

In less positive news for mortgage holders, it has emerged that the Government has plans to fast-track the repossession of buy-to-lets and other investment properties.

According to the 'Sunday Business Post', the new model will be based on the Commercial Court.

The fast-track process should help to calm concerns voiced by the troika, which has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the slow pace of repossessions in Ireland.

lima

Villa05 wrote: »

In less positive news for mortgage holders, it has emerged that the Government has plans to fast-track the repossession of buy-to-lets and other investment properties.

how is this less positive? is this from the Independent? This is good news surely

Villa05

lima wrote: »

how is this less positive? is this from the Independent? This is good news surely

Yip, what an utter rag, sorry for not posting a link

The_Conductor

lima wrote: »

how is this less positive? is this from the Independent? This is good news surely

I concur.
Not sure why this is being reported as a bad thing?

cookie1977

Indeed. The low hanging fruit should be picked off. Problem is that most of the low hanging fruit (apts) is not what the majority want to buy in the market now.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

Indeed. The low hanging fruit should be picked off. Problem is that most of the low hanging fruit (apts) is not what the majority want to buy in the market now.

That is true, personally I am though a minority looking for an city centre apartment. It's currently a very confusing time as one one hand restricted stock is causing prices to rise but on the other there is a potential for BTL repos to make a dent in the price.

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

That is true, personally I am though a minority looking for an city centre apartment. It's currently a very confusing time as one one hand restricted stock is causing prices to rise but on the other there is a potential for BTL repos to make a dent in the price.

I really dont think repossessions will make much of a dent in prices of apts or houses in Dublin. I suspect any repossessions will not be quickly released back on the market priced to sell. Banks are just like us and they can see prices rising so they will also want to maximise their return on a repossession.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

I really dont think repossessions will make much of a dent in prices of apts or houses in Dublin. I suspect any repossessions will not be quickly released back on the market priced to sell. Banks are just like us and they can see prices rising so they will also want to maximise their return on a repossession.

Based on how slow the whole arrears thing is going I would agree. I'm not even angry about it any more, it's a waste of energy & I just need somewhere to live.

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

That is true, personally I am though a minority looking for an city centre apartment. It's currently a very confusing time as one one hand restricted stock is causing prices to rise but on the other there is a potential for BTL repos to make a dent in the price.

Repossession s are already taking place just look at daft or if you are in the market for a property its obvious what ones are repos. There won't be a big block dumped all together partly because this might lower prices in an area also because the banks don't have one start date from commencement of possession order to actually selling the property for all properties.

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

That is true, personally I am though a minority looking for an city centre apartment. It's currently a very confusing time as one one hand restricted stock is causing prices to rise but on the other there is a potential for BTL repos to make a dent in the price.

Repossession s are already taking place just look at daft or if you are in the market for a property its obvious what ones are repos. There won't be a big block dumped all together partly because this might lower prices in an area also because the banks don't have one start date from commencement of possession order to actually selling the property for all properties.

Woodville56

handlemaster wrote: »

Repossession s are already taking place just look at daft or if you are in the market for a property its obvious what ones are repos. There won't be a big block dumped all together partly because this might lower prices in an area also because the banks don't have one start date from commencement of possession order to actually selling the property for all properties.

Hi handlemaster, also in the househunting game here - what are the signs of repos on the market - fairly new to this scene so what should I be looking for ??

cookie1977

handlemaster wrote: »

Repossession s are already taking place just look at daft or if you are in the market for a property its obvious what ones are repos. There won't be a big block dumped all together partly because this might lower prices in an area also because the banks don't have one start date from commencement of possession order to actually selling the property for all properties.

can i ask how it's obvious which houses are for sale that have been repossessed? And are these properties in the dublin/leinster area?

The_Conductor

cookie1977 wrote: »

can i ask how it's obvious which houses are for sale that have been repossessed? And are these properties in the dublin/leinster area?

If you go to any of the viewings- you'll know........

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

can i ask how it's obvious which houses are for sale that have been repossessed? And are these properties in the dublin/leinster area?

Someone mentioned before that they are the ones with everything ripped out of them, anything worth value e.g white goods, light fittings etc.

handlemaster

Woodville56 wrote: »

Hi handlemaster, also in the househunting game here - what are the signs of repos on the market - fairly new to this scene so what should I be looking for ??

If you go to viewing s as the conductor just said it will be said to you. Even from the presentation of the property just look at the pics. Not maintained or obvious signs of no presentation effort is zero. The price s are usually a little lower. But with that the sale of contract is very tight the receiver leaves all issues with the buyer.

Woodville56

handlemaster wrote: »

If you go to viewing s as the conductor just said it will be said to you. Even from the presentation of the property just look at the pics. Not maintained or obvious signs of no presentation effort is zero. The price s are usually a little lower. But with that the sale of contract is very tight the receiver leaves all issues with the buyer.

Thanks for that handlemaster - reminds me of viewing we recently attended - unfinished houses, sold "as is" .We were told by EA that liquidator would only accept offers at advertised/asking price, despite a sizeable sum needed to be spent to finish off !
We didn't make an offer but are watching .....

gaius c

cookie1977 wrote: »

I really dont think repossessions will make much of a dent in prices of apts or houses in Dublin. I suspect any repossessions will not be quickly released back on the market priced to sell. Banks are just like us and they can see prices rising so they will also want to maximise their return on a repossession.

It's quite simple really. More apartments on the market to rent mean less family homes occupied by four nurses house-sharing and thus more family homes available for actual families.

lima

Some good news predicted by the Independent (quoting an S&P report), saying that repos will take the current heat out of the market:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/seizures-to-take-heat-out-of-housing-bubble-29726450.html

Hopefully news like this will stop panic-buying and will stop the estate agents bumping up prices and taking properties on and off the market

Frank Lee Midere

Bad news for the bulls. We are back in the market after exiting the bailout and the ECB said it won't cover any new recapitalisation. There are new stringent tests next year and nobody thinks that AIB will pass. It will need 10B. We need to go to the market for that and it's quite likely they will balk. The deficit increase would spook them. The other option is to recapitalise by selling collateral. That is repossessions.

gaius c

The_Conductor wrote: »

I concur.
Not sure why this is being reported as a bad thing?

Because "smart & ballsy" Sindo writers have an interest in having debt written off while keeping the asset the debt was secured against?

cookie1977 wrote: »

I really dont think repossessions will make much of a dent in prices of apts or houses in Dublin. I suspect any repossessions will not be quickly released back on the market priced to sell. Banks are just like us and they can see prices rising so they will also want to maximise their return on a repossession.

Banks are just like us alright. They have bills to pay too and if they can't pay them, they need to scramble to get the cash together to pay those bills. The only reason they have been able to "hold onto" non-performing loans/assets is because they've been shielded from actually having to pay their way. That's coming to an end soon .

Villa05

I think people have, forgotten the funding model used by the banks during the bubble.

They borrowed short term and lent long term via mortgages. As the banks short term borrowing come due. The banks will not have the funds to repay as the mortgages are not performing. This is why the imf are worried about the lack of repossesions.