Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

Boom__Boom

jmayo wrote: »

Are you sure it is the same guy?
There is more than one michael mcgreal in Mayo you know.

Although then again he did stand for ff, the property party. :rolleyes:

I did think about this but the fact that "both" are Michael Joe/Joesph McGreal would lead me to think it's the same individual.especially when the age profile, location and "philosophies" of what the government should do, match up so closely.

Basically I just think that's it's extremely unlikely to be two different individuals.

Anyway back to the main topic - has anyone heard of any sort of other evidence that would back up the Mayo news story?

I would like to think that it can't be that it's just Mayo has been targeted for repossessions so I would expect that there is an equivalent increase in repossession actions countrywide as a result of the Dunne judgement being set aside.

I would imagine that local papers could possibly be a potential source for similar stories, but I wouldn't be all that shocked if some of the local papers didn't cover the story.

jay0109

Michael Noonan said today that it's the Govt's primary objective in relation to the mortgage crisis is to keep people in their homes.
So an official F-u to the prudent and the 1st time buyers of the future

The Spider

And what have I said? there'd be no large scale repossessions, and I guarantee you debt forgiveness is on the cards, makes sense really, people can't be expected to carry that kind of debt for the rest of their lives, only way to a sustained recovery.

Thargor

They've noticed the total apathy of anyone under 35 now and have just decided to burn them to keep the gravy train rolling as long as they can, they're not even trying to hide it anymore, Im out of here when I finish up getting a good 5 years of experience in this job that will get me work anywhere I like.

GavMan

The Spider wrote: »

And what have I said? there'd be no large scale repossessions, and I guarantee you debt forgiveness is on the cards, makes sense really, people can't be expected to carry that kind of debt for the rest of their lives, only way to a sustained recovery.

It's all well and good Noonan saying that but it's an entirely different thing funding that write off. Given our banks liquidity may not be as sure footed as one would like now there is no blanket guarantee.

As we know, this administration is fond of saying lots of things...

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

And what have I said? there'd be no large scale repossessions, and I guarantee you debt forgiveness is on the cards, makes sense really, people can't be expected to carry that kind of debt for the rest of their lives, only way to a sustained recovery.

You still think so? We haven't applied for a precautionary line of credit- and debt forgiveness would entail yet another bank recapitalisation- of at least 30 billion- money we don't have, and can't afford.

We now have over 600 repossession cases in Mayo, alone- one single county. Extrapolate this across the country- and then you see a truer picture.

Noonan can claim that its the government's objective to keep people in their homes- until the cows come home. His words are not being reflected on the grounds- at long last we have a large number of repossessions hitting our court systems.

Noonan imagines his objective of keeping people in their homes will magically happen via the personal insolvency legislation. Think again.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

You still think so? We haven't applied for a precautionary line of credit- and debt forgiveness would entail yet another bank recapitalisation- of at least 30 billion- money we don't have, and can't afford.

We now have over 600 repossession cases in Mayo, alone- one single county. Extrapolate this across the country- and then you see a truer picture.

Noonan can claim that its the government's objective to keep people in their homes- until the cows come home. His words are not being reflected on the grounds- at long last we have a large number of repossessions hitting our court systems.

Noonan imagines his objective of keeping people in their homes will magically happen via the personal insolvency legislation. Think again.

Where did you see 600 repossessions in mayo and over what time period was that? Are they all completed or still only applications?

jay0109

cookie1977 wrote: »

Where did you see 600 repossessions in mayo and over what time period was that? Are they all completed or still only applications?

I only saw mention of 56 repossessions in Mayo working their way through the courts in that recent story

http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18926:banks-move-on-homeowners&catid=23:news&Itemid=46

An unprecedented 56 cases – the majority of which were in the early stages of litigation involving Civil Bills for repossession – were processed by Mr Fintan Murphy, the County Registrar. This time last year there were only about two such cases before the same court.

The_Conductor

cookie1977 wrote: »

Where did you see 600 repossessions in mayo and over what time period was that? Are they all completed or still only applications?

Since the 27th of July- and 52 (from the once a month sitting of the Country Registrar's Court) alone relate to last week. 19 of the applications were struck out in the Circuit Court for varying reasons- the rest are all early stage- this is post the passing of the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform Bill (early June- think it was only enacted towards the end of July).

If you go on http://www.courts.ie you can search by county all cases in all the various court diaries.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Since the 27th of July- and 52 (from the once a month sitting of the Country Registrar's Court) alone relate to last week. 19 of the applications were struck out in the Circuit Court for varying reasons- the rest are all early stage- this is post the passing of the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform Bill (early June- think it was only enacted towards the end of July).

If you go on http://www.courts.ie you can search by county all cases in all the various court diaries.

Do you thing in court cases lawyers say "it says so on google. Look here's the address http://google.ie , search yourself if you don't believe me".

lima

The Spider wrote: »

And what have I said? there'd be no large scale repossessions, and I guarantee you debt forgiveness is on the cards, makes sense really, people can't be expected to carry that kind of debt for the rest of their lives, only way to a sustained recovery.

Keep dreaming all the way out there

jay0109

Primetime tonight is having a look at the recent rise in Dublin house prices....expect a lot of talk and no real insight

lima

jay0109 wrote: »

Primetime tonight is having a look at the recent rise in Dublin house prices....expect a lot of talk and no real insight

They are just talking about what everyone mentioned here about 6 months ago

In fairness they are being realistic and are not really talking up a boom (surprisingly)

I went to see a place last week and it was full of old people in their 60's telling the EA they were cash buyers and ready to buy. The place was a kip that needed loads of work. Chuckled to myself and left after 5min. No way was it worth the price.

jay0109

jay0109 wrote: »

Primetime tonight is having a look at the recent rise in Dublin house prices....expect a lot of talk and no real insight

Basically Curran and Power said we's have to have 4 to 5 years of 12% price rises before it could be called a bubble and then we'd have to start worrying!!!!!Totally ignoring the piece in the clip earlier where a 2 teacher couple said everything was completely unaffordable for them in less than grandiose areas such as Kilmacud.

Anyways, by my reckoning we're 2 years into that '4,5 year' time span they mentioned.

Power echoed Lyons of Daft that it can't be a bubble without credit, and there's no credit at present.
And they kept talking about these big price rises only being in affluent areas of SCD....I'd hardly call Knocklyon, Rathfarnham and parts of Harolds X affluent, but the rises there are in the 10-15% per annum range the past couple of years.

Villa05

I wonder will dublin people have to send their children to some other county where teachers can afford to live. it would be the perfect preparation for them, when they graduate they will have to fuc# off out of the country to get a job. Crazy country.

Calina

This comment about bubbles requiring credit...I don't agree with it. The collateral damage is different (people lose money they had rather than money they didn't have) but the impact on the market is the same. It is not behaving rationally.

A key issue I have is that property is still seen as an asset rather than a utility. This is regrettable.

Villa05

Calina wrote: »

The collateral damage is different (people lose money they had rather than money they didn't have) but the impact on the market is the same.

Im, sure joe duffy or some other will air their plight on the national airwaves and their losses will be made good by the taxpayer.

The Spider

Calina wrote: »

This comment about bubbles requiring credit...I don't agree with it. The collateral damage is different (people lose money they had rather than money they didn't have) but the impact on the market is the same. It is not behaving rationally.

A key issue I have is that property is still seen as an asset rather than a utility. This is regrettable.

If you rent it's a utility, if you own by definition it's an asset, just as anything you own is an asset, be it a painting on the wall, a watch or a bottle of wine, all assets, because you own them.

If you pay for a service, like electricity, gas or rent, then it's a utility.

Hope that clears that up!

cson

What you're potentially seeing is capital from the Tiger years coming to the surface again. Not everyone lost their shirt; you'd have had a few people (think country farmer) who sold big and didn't attempt to become a developer from it.

Obviously now they think the time is right to invest in a region 'on the up' so to speak and SoCoDu and Dublin in general are starting to soak up that cash. This is why the anecdote about the 60 year old cash buyers rings true in the previous page. Yield is hitting ~10% in some parts of Dublin now, and folks appear to be wising up to that. As with everything though; I would say if you're attempting to hop on the train right now, you're too late; you've missed it.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

We're probably somewhere in the awareness phase now for SoCoDu.

cson

Villa05 wrote: »

I wonder will dublin people have to send their children to some other county where teachers can afford to live. it would be the perfect preparation for them, when they graduate they will have to fuc# off out of the country to get a job. Crazy country.

Confusing wants with needs.

You need a roof over your head, you want it in South Dublin.

As the Rolling Stones said; you can't always get what you want.

It's not a nuclear scenario tbh.

El_Dangeroso

cson wrote: »

What you're potentially seeing is capital from the Tiger years coming to the surface again. Not everyone lost their shirt; you'd have had a few people (think country farmer) who sold big and didn't attempt to become a developer from it.

Obviously now they think the time is right to invest in a region 'on the up' so to speak and SoCoDu and Dublin in general are starting to soak up that cash. This is why the anecdote about the 60 year old cash buyers rings true in the previous page. Yield is hitting ~10% in some parts of Dublin now, and folks appear to be wising up to that. As with everything though; I would say if you're attempting to hop on the train right now, you're too late; you've missed it.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

We're probably somewhere in the awareness phase now for SoCoDu.

I'd say it's more the false 'return to normal'. The reasons for that assessment have been listed ad-nauseum in this thread.

lima

cson wrote: »

What you're potentially seeing is capital from the Tiger years coming to the surface again. Not everyone lost their shirt; you'd have had a few people (think country farmer) who sold big and didn't attempt to become a developer from it.

Obviously now they think the time is right to invest in a region 'on the up' so to speak and SoCoDu and Dublin in general are starting to soak up that cash. This is why the anecdote about the 60 year old cash buyers rings true in the previous page. Yield is hitting ~10% in some parts of Dublin now, and folks appear to be wising up to that. As with everything though; I would say if you're attempting to hop on the train right now, you're too late; you've missed it.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

We're probably somewhere in the awareness phase now for SoCoDu.

but the problem is that there is NOTHING of quality out there. There wasn't even anything of quality in 2012, people in Ireland seem to have an acceptance of low quality accommodation, seriously I've been all over the world and the s*it you get in Ireland is truly terrible for the money quoted for it, even during the very bottom of the property bust last year.

I've been sitting on the fence for 2 years and my deposit is getting bigger and bigger and I would be willing to pay 10-20k more for a decent property but there is nothing out there!! I'm pretty happy renting in an affluent part of Dublin 6 as I get to enjoy a good quality of life, and I honestly don't really think its worth committing to a 35 year loan just to say I own a house in some crappy suburb of north/south/east/west Dublin with loads of traffic and crap expensive public transport!!

Some people need to think that when they get their utopian 'socodu' house that all will be well.. actually they are locked in to Irish society FOREVER (ok 35 years) and if the sh*t hits the fan again they will end up being like all those people who are struggling to meet their payments and who end up worrying about money for the rest of their lives. Stinger!


..and I am saying the above based on the current lack of repossessions of houses where people have decided to not pay for 3-4 years and who are protected by this govt as they chose to have babies or they are cute-hoor BTL owners. Not to mention banks messing up by giving people trackers, meaning they are unable to sell their houses for the fear of losing their sweet deal.

cookie1977

I quite like living in my 'socodu' house in Ireland.

I have a finite life span on this planet before I potter off to the "choir invisible" and worrying about it all the time (past, future) is a waste of it. Here and now things are going fine and if the s*it hits the fan again I'm sure I'll cope somehow.

I have to say your posts sway between anger at the whole current situation and delight at how you're not worried at all. Which is the real feeling you have?

moxin

jay0109 wrote: »

Basically Curran and Power said we's have to have 4 to 5 years of 12% price rises before it could be called a bubble and then we'd have to start worrying!!!!!Totally ignoring the piece in the clip earlier where a 2 teacher couple said everything was completely unaffordable for them in less than grandiose areas such as Kilmacud.

Anyways, by my reckoning we're 2 years into that '4,5 year' time span they mentioned.

Power echoed Lyons of Daft that it can't be a bubble without credit, and there's no credit at present.
And they kept talking about these big price rises only being in affluent areas of SCD....I'd hardly call Knocklyon, Rathfarnham and parts of Harolds X affluent, but the rises there are in the 10-15% per annum range the past couple of years.

So these rises are only in "affluent" areas only. What did they say about what happens when the cash runs out?(over 50% of sales are cash only, mortgage lending is flat.)

Nobody anywhere in the media or here have stated what will happen when the cash runs out!

gaius c

jay0109 wrote: »

Basically Curran and Power said we's have to have 4 to 5 years of 12% price rises before it could be called a bubble and then we'd have to start worrying!!!!!Totally ignoring the piece in the clip earlier where a 2 teacher couple said everything was completely unaffordable for them in less than grandiose areas such as Kilmacud.

Anyways, by my reckoning we're 2 years into that '4,5 year' time span they mentioned.

Power echoed Lyons of Daft that it can't be a bubble without credit, and there's no credit at present.
And they kept talking about these big price rises only being in affluent areas of SCD....I'd hardly call Knocklyon, Rathfarnham and parts of Harolds X affluent, but the rises there are in the 10-15% per annum range the past couple of years.

Ronan has been taken to task for that on the pin and it really is nonsensical. Of course you can have a bubble without credit. Right now it's a cash bubble driven by the older folks who still have savings. How long can people who already have houses continue to buy up second, third, fourth houses while younger people struggle to buy their first because that is a classic sign of a bubble?

techdiver

jay0109 wrote: »

Power echoed Lyons of Daft that it can't be a bubble without credit, and there's no credit at present.

Horses**t!

You might as well take advise from a crazy old woman reading tea leaves as that shower of snake oil salesmen.

These are members of the same cohort who got it all so right during the bubble years after all..... Oh wait...

jay0109

moxin wrote: »

So these rises are only in "affluent" areas only. What did they say about what happens when the cash runs out?(over 50% of sales are cash only, mortgage lending is flat.)

Nobody anywhere in the media or here have stated what will happen when the cash runs out!

When will the cash run out though...it's been flowing for a couple of years now.

And someone else said it's old folk with cash now that are buying up the properties. From my experience of attending viewings, it's couples/families in their 30's who are spending the cash

cookie1977

jay0109 wrote: »

When will the cash run out though...it's been flowing for a couple of years now.

And someone else said it's old folk with cash now that are buying up the properties. From my experience of attending viewings, it's couples/families in their 30's who are spending the cash

I'd tend to agree. Anecdoctally I've seen lots of young couples pushing prams visit property in my area of D6W and the ones that have sold have been bought by young people. Although I do acknowledge that it is mainly cash buyers active in the market.

El_Dangeroso

jay0109 wrote: »

When will the cash run out though...it's been flowing for a couple of years now.

And someone else said it's old folk with cash now that are buying up the properties. From my experience of attending viewings, it's couples/families in their 30's who are spending the cash

I think the cash will be always there, it's not the amount of cash that's causing the cash buying to be so high relatively, it's the very small amount of stock on the market.

jmayo

jay0109 wrote: »

Michael Noonan said today that it's the Govt's primary objective in relation to the mortgage crisis is to keep people in their homes.
So an official F-u to the prudent and the 1st time buyers of the future

Optics pure optics.
Both Noonan and Kenny have in the past said there can be no blanket anythings since one size can't fit all.
Also they have siad that they know some are involved in what looks like strategic default.

The Spider wrote: »

And what have I said? there'd be no large scale repossessions, and I guarantee you debt forgiveness is on the cards, makes sense really, people can't be expected to carry that kind of debt for the rest of their lives, only way to a sustained recovery.

You hope the more times you and others utter it the more chances it will come true.
Well as others have said have you checked out the stability of the banks recently ?
And as always I will once again ask you where is all this money for debt forgiveness going to come from ?
I do hope your magic money tree is not ash because they are also under threat in this country.

BTW how is the missus' apartment going ?

moxin wrote: »

So these rises are only in "affluent" areas only. What did they say about what happens when the cash runs out?(over 50% of sales are cash only, mortgage lending is flat.)

Nobody anywhere in the media or here have stated what will happen when the cash runs out!

To be fair I think both Curran and Power both mentioned some of the things that is now making the current market, particularly in Dublin, not normal.
They mentioned limited supply, what happens when repossessions add to the market, low borrowing levels.
Also I think Power made point about forcing brown and green development land to be released for development for housing.
He also mentioned NAMA in this regard.
In fact Power was very gungho for regulation of house prices through forcing more land release, more adherence to the multiples people could borrow, etc.

Boy how times have changed.

With these programs I always get the feeling the RTE interviewer is trying to push the panelists to talk up the market and AFAIK it was the RTE guy who started the mention of bubbles etc. :mad:
Does anyone agreed with this last point ?