Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

who_ru

jmayo wrote: »

With these programs I always get the feeling the RTE interviewer is trying to push the panelists to talk up the market and AFAIK it was the RTE guy who started the mention of bubbles etc. :mad:
Does anyone agreed with this last point ?

Yes.

RTE is the broadcast equivalent of the Sunday Independent when it comes to property.

how i'd love to see a rerun of 'i'm an adult get me out of here', roping people into hopeless levels of debt, it would be educational to see it again.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Optics pure optics.
Both Noonan and Kenny have in the past said there can be no blanket anythings since one size can't fit all.
Also they have siad that they know some are involved in what looks like strategic default.



You hope the more times you and others utter it the more chances it will come true.
Well as others have said have you checked out the stability of the banks recently ?
And as always I will once again ask you where is all this money for debt forgiveness going to come from ?
I do hope your magic money tree is not ash because they are also under
threat in this country.

BTW how is the missus' apartment going ?

?

Good actually, thanks for asking pulling in a good ol' profit every month, just noticed this thread has been going for over 9 months and still not a reossession, whats the bets for another 9 and still none, in fact house prices are still going up.

Still it's nice to dream about that cheap house.....

Villa05

cson wrote: »

What you're potentially seeing is capital from the Tiger years coming to the surface again. Not everyone lost their shirt; you'd have had a few people (think country farmer) who sold big and didn't attempt to become a developer from it.

Obviously now they think the time is right to invest in a region 'on the up' so to speak and SoCoDu and Dublin in general are starting to soak up that cash. This is why the anecdote about the 60 year old cash buyers rings true in the previous page. Yield is hitting ~10% in some parts of Dublin now, and folks appear to be wising up to that. As with everything though; I would say if you're attempting to hop on the train right now, you're too late; you've missed it.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif

We're probably somewhere in the awareness phase now for SoCoDu.

What you describe is a classic Bull trap, certainly not awareness phase
Low volumes, cash from the bubble,

The quote from Brendan Burgeess from AAM comes to mind with his fill your boots comment about Irish Bank shares when they were at €5.00 per share in early 2008 on RTE News

Villa05

cookie1977 wrote: »

I quite like living in my 'socodu' house in Ireland.

I have a finite life span on this planet before I potter off to the "choir invisible" and worrying about it all the time (past, future) is a waste of it. Here and now things are going fine and if the s*it hits the fan again I'm sure I'll cope somehow.

I have to say your posts sway between anger at the whole current situation and delight at how you're not worried at all. Which is the real feeling you have?

Glad to hear your over your difficulties from a few weeks back.

Just some friendly advise; You should seriously consider reducing your exposure to property and offload that BTL while there are buyers out there. The under 35's and future generations will not be able to afford current prices.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Owner??? of stud farm using violence against low paid security guards to retake his stud farm. What a hero!!!?????

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/08/31/taking-it-back/

So low paid workers who have been worst effected by tax increases and cutbacks are assaulted by greedy property speculators. After the assault, they expect the low paid security guard to pay higher taxes so that they can continue enjoy the tax free fruits of the Stud farm.

Property speculators then have the cheek to make comparisons with the famine/Land League and their situation

No Sympathy

A stud farm owner whose arrest for contempt of court orders was directed after his lands were the scene of angry anti-repossession protests has voluntarily appeared before the High Court to apologise

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/farm-owner-sorry-for-repossession-protest-1.1603002

Villa05

A small dose of reality from the Media

For Jeremy O’Friel, managing director of Belmont Investments – a New York-based hedge fund – there are still too many “what ifs” in the equation.
“What if the banks need more money? What if tapering [a cooling of the Fed bond-buying programme] starts and interest rates rise as the global economy recovers? What if Greece falls over?”
O’Friel bases his analysis on debt sustainability metrics that suggest Ireland – with a public sector debt of 125 per cent of GDP and rising – will need more than a modest growth rate just to cover the interest payments.
“So even with the following – European support, IMF support, record low global rates due to Quantitative Easing (QE), political stability – even with all of that, we are only just below the bubble.
“Yes, there is a possibility of growth, but just feed the numbers into the parameters and you will see that we need something extraordinary, to improve the tax take to a point where the situation starts to look safe again.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/not-everyone-is-buying-the-irish-bailout-success-story-1.1602963

Villa05

The Spider wrote: »

Good actually, thanks for asking pulling in a good ol' profit every month, just noticed this thread has been going for over 9 months and still not a reossession, whats the bets for another 9 and still none, in fact house prices are still going up.

Still it's nice to dream about that cheap house.....

Your posts are as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. The banks have more repossessed houses in June 2013 as compared March 2013

Voluntary surrender is far higher with one bank alone reporting 2,000 cases

THE number of Permanent TSB customers in mortgage arrears who have surrendered their homes has more than doubled in the last six months.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ptsb-2000-in-mortgage-trouble-have-given-up-homes-this-year-29556033.html

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Good actually, thanks for asking pulling in a good ol' profit every month, just noticed this thread has been going for over 9 months and still not a reossession, whats the bets for another 9 and still none, in fact house prices are still going up.

Still it's nice to dream about that cheap house.....

In fairness you live outside Dublin so your PPR is probably falling in value, as well as your wife's apt

The Spider

lima wrote: »

In fairness you live outside Dublin so your PPR is probably falling in value, as well as your wife's apt

Ha nope I bought last year, house was on sale in the boom for 950, I got it for 200. Houses of a smaller size in estates are now going for 250-350 depending on the house.

On and my mortgage is about 600 a month, put down a hefty deposit, not quite a cash buyer, but enough to pay off over a third up front.

Said it before, I watched and waited, last year was the time to buy, anyway don't think I'll be selling the house has everything I'd want and I honestly don't know you'd scale up from this size, around 300 square metres on nearly two acres.

handlemaster

The Spider wrote: »

Ha nope I bought last year, house was on sale in the boom for 950, I got it for 200. Houses of a smaller size in estates are now going for 250-350 depending on the house.

On and my mortgage is about 600 a month, put down a hefty deposit, not quite a cash buyer, but enough to pay off over a third up front.

Said it before, I watched and waited, last year was the time to buy, anyway don't think I'll be selling the house has everything I'd want and I honestly don't know you'd scale up from this size, around 300 square metres on nearly two acres.

No self adulation here

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Ha nope I bought last year, house was on sale in the boom for 950, I got it for 200. Houses of a smaller size in estates are now going for 250-350 depending on the house.

On and my mortgage is about 600 a month, put down a hefty deposit, not quite a cash buyer, but enough to pay off over a third up front.

Said it before, I watched and waited, last year was the time to buy, anyway don't think I'll be selling the house has everything I'd want and I honestly don't know you'd scale up from this size, around 300 square metres on nearly two acres.

Good for you, assuming a bit of exaggeration there though You certainly can get a lot of floorspace outside the capital, each to their own though. I wouldn't be very confident about prices rising forever though, particularly on the outskirts.

You can speculate about prices going higher and I can speculate about repossessions happening at a faster rate to the point where I would be comfortable buying the kind of home I want (city centre apartment). Time will tell I suppose.

cookie1977

Villa05 wrote: »

Glad to hear you're over your difficulties from a few weeks back.

Just some friendly advice; You should seriously consider reducing your exposure to property and offload that BTL while there are buyers out there. The under 35's and future generations will not be able to afford current prices.

I dont believe I said I was in difficulty. I said I was doing things to ensure I wouldn't get in to difficulties. I think I've done ok on my own to date so I'm sure I'll continue to manage.

The Spider

lima wrote: »

Good for you, assuming a bit of exaggeration there though You certainly can get a lot of floorspace outside the capital, each to their own though. I wouldn't be very confident about prices rising forever though, particularly on the outskirts.

You can speculate about prices going higher and I can speculate about repossessions happening at a faster rate to the point where I would be comfortable buying the kind of home I want (city centre apartment). Time will tell I suppose.

Not exaggerating, still work inDublin drive up in the morning and home in the evening, all very doable, worse driving from northside to south side.

That said there's no way I'd do it if I was single, you'd need to be out and about.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Not exaggerating, still work inDublin drive up in the morning and home in the evening, all very doable, worse driving from northside to south side.

That said there's no way I'd do it if I was single, you'd need to be out and about.

True

I'm actually competing mostly with cash buyers for any apts in Dublin centre, I'm probably a minority looking to buy a place to live in. I still reckon if repossessions are done right then there will be more apts for sale and the cash buyers will dwindle at some point.

lima

Villa05 wrote: »

Glad to hear your over your difficulties from a few weeks back.

Just some friendly advise; You should seriously consider reducing your exposure to property and offload that BTL while there are buyers out there. The under 35's and future generations will not be able to afford current prices.

Some of us can afford the current prices but feel they are far too expensive for their low quality.

murphaph

lima wrote: »

Some of us can afford the current prices but feel they are far too expensive for their low quality.

But if the quality is a problem for you that is not going to be remedied without fresh building to better (and enforced) standards? Is that what you're waiting for? If not, are you waiting to pay less for sh!t quality or what? I personally wouldn't be happy living somewhere I felt was rubbish, even if cheap.

The_Conductor

murphaph wrote: »

But if the quality is a problem for you that is not going to be remedied without fresh building to better (and enforced) standards? Is that what you're waiting for? If not, are you waiting to pay less for sh!t quality or what? I personally wouldn't be happy living somewhere I felt was rubbish, even if cheap.

A lot of the sites that have reopened in the commuter belt (Clonee etc) will be forced comply to the 2008 standards- and there is demand in these areas- and they will sell.

A lot of the abondoned sites in less remote areas- do have a future- and are being looked at again with a view to completing them.

Between developing pre-existing sites, and demolishing obvious lemons- we hope to have consigned most of the ghost estates to history by 2018-2019......

handlemaster

The_Conductor wrote: »

A lot of the sites that have reopened in the commuter belt (Clonee etc) will be forced comply to the 2008 standards- and there is demand in these areas- and they will sell.

A lot of the abondoned sites in less remote areas- do have a future- and are being looked at again with a view to completing them.

Between developing pre-existing sites, and demolishing obvious lemons- we hope to have consigned most of the ghost estates to history by 2018-2019......

What sites have opened in clonee ?

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

What sites have opened in clonee ?

They've restarted work on the large estate just off main street as you head towards Lucan/Leixlip (think its the R194, please correct me if I'm wrong). The council have also recently done the footpaths and access for the development. I think the first 2 phases were completed and sold before the bust- and then the site more or less mothballed, up to 2-3 months ago. I drive by it at least once a week, its nice to see them progressing on it again. I have no idea how many units are in there.

Cuddlesworth

The_Conductor wrote: »

They've restarted work on the large estate just off main street as you head towards Lucan/Leixlip (think its the R194, please correct me if I'm wrong). The council have also recently done the footpaths and access for the development. I think the first 2 phases were completed and sold before the bust- and then the site more or less mothballed, up to 2-3 months ago. I drive by it at least once a week, its nice to see them progressing on it again. I have no idea how many units are in there.

You mean this one in Ongar?

I'm not sure if they are actually doing much or if there are many houses in there, but there is obviously road infrastructure based around a couple hundred more houses down that road and the link road to the trainstation.

mr_seer

I see the "Expert Group" set up by the government have recommended no changes to the process of repossessions. The Troika aren't even gone yet and already political expediency is getting in the way of sorting the banks out

Villa05

mr_seer wrote: »

I see the "Expert Group" set up by the government have recommended no changes to the process of repossessions. The Troika aren't even gone yet and already political expediency is getting in the way of sorting the banks out

Expert group. Do nothing.
Ireland new slogan
I dont the troika will accept this.

gaius c

Villa05 wrote: »

Expert group. Do nothing.
Ireland new slogan
I dont the troika will accept this.

The Troika won't be in a position to dispute anything as we have "exited" the bailout but the ECB might have quite a lot to say about it.

handlemaster

Lots of people paying nothing for their houses. That's by choice everyone can afford something. I'd say the government hopes this can be swept under the carpet for another few years

The Spider

I don't know if anyone's heard the radio ad at the moment about 1 in 5 children being in danger of losing their home?

I think the tagline is a home is too much to lose.

Now ads like that on the radio, and anyone thinks there's going to be masses of repossessions?

Below article mentions them, but I don't think there'll be any to have a significant impact.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1125/488950-signs-of-stability-in-the-property-market-ibf/

jmayo

Villa05 wrote: »

Your posts are as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. The banks have more repossessed houses in June 2013 as compared March 2013

Voluntary surrender is far higher with one bank alone reporting 2,000 cases

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ptsb-2000-in-mortgage-trouble-have-given-up-homes-this-year-29556033.html

I know it is anecdotal, but I do know of a couple of people who are trying to hand back the property to the bank.
Of course going on what some around here claim, I am half expecting the bank to pay them to stay in their property less they have to offically repossess it. :rolleyes:

The Spider wrote: »

Not exaggerating, still work inDublin drive up in the morning and home in the evening, all very doable, worse driving from northside to south side.

That said there's no way I'd do it if I was single, you'd need to be out and about.

Ahh so it is you that causes all the tailbacks in the Glen of the Downs.

gaius c wrote: »

The Troika won't be in a position to dispute anything as we have "exited" the bailout but the ECB might have quite a lot to say about it.

They haven't really gone away and wont until we repay them most of the loot we got from them to stay afloat.
Listening to the cr** the government came out with you would swear we were back in the black again.

The Spider wrote: »

I don't know if anyone's heard the radio ad at the moment about 1 in 5 children being in danger of losing their home?

I think the tagline is a home is too much to lose.

Now ads like that on the radio, and anyone thinks there's going to be masses of repossessions?

Below article mentions them, but I don't think there'll be any to have a significant impact.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1125/488950-signs-of-stability-in-the-property-market-ibf/

Perhaps you should tell that to RBS, Danske, KBC and their shareholders.
BTW once again can you please tell us where the money is going to come from to fund all of these no repossessions ?

You really are trying very hard I will give you that.

Can I ask if are you affiliated to either New Beggings or the Irish Mortgage Holders Who wont Repay Association ?
Must now slap myself on wrist for asking if someone is involved in vested interest group.


PS how many of those 1 in 5 kids facing losing their homes are in rented accommodation ?
Ah shure wait what am I saying.
Who gives a fook if they are in rented homes, since they don't matter.
The only ones that matter are those parents who "own" (I should really say possess but often can't afford) their own homes.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

I know it is anecdotal, but I do know of a couple of people who are trying to hand back the property to the bank.
Of course going on what some around here claim, I am half expecting the bank to pay them to stay in their property less they have to offically repossess it. :rolleyes:



Ahh so it is you that causes all the tailbacks in the Glen of the Downs.



They haven't really gone away and wont until we repay them most of the loot we got from them to stay afloat.
Listening to the cr** the government came out with you would swear we were back in the black again.



Perhaps you should tell that to RBS, Danske, KBC and their shareholders.
BTW once again can you please tell us where the money is going to come from to fund all of these no repossessions ?

You really are trying very hard I will give you that.

Can I ask if are you affiliated to either New Beggings or the Irish Mortgage Holders Who wont Repay Association ?
Must now slap myself on wrist for asking if someone is involved in vested interest group.


PS how many of those 1 in 5 kids facing losing their homes are in rented accommodation ?
Ah shure wait what am I saying.
Who gives a fook if they are in rented homes, since they don't matter.
The only ones that matter are those parents who "own" (I should really say possess but often can't afford) their own homes.

No Affiliation with any group, for some people around here the property crash has become like a religion. The great messiah that will arrive and save those in rented accommodation, by taking the houses from the undeserving and allowing the renters to acquire them cheaply, and turfing the unbelievers out on the streets. There's even a big group of sinners known as V.I's who's sole purpose is to thwart the great messiah and bring their anti-crash god back to life who is known as bubble 2.

Problem is the messiah's come and gone......

Calina

I think a couple of points have been forgotten when we start talking about religion and the cost of the property crash.

So firstly, the property crash was foreseeable and avoidable and the fact that neither happened has a lot to do with will. People will not see what they do not want to see. However, once property prices went up as high as they did, the crash was pretty much inevitable. Arguing that people see the crash as a religion is trying to argue that the tide doesn't come on the west coast of Ireland twice a day.

So save me the whole "some people see the property crash as saving the great rented mass" nonsense and start dealing with reality.

People in this country could not afford their property prices 8 years ago when they were buying. It's not NOW that they couldn't afford them, it's 8 years ago.If they hadn't bought them then, perhaps the property crash might have been a) less because price growth was less and b) less catastrophic.

The key issues I had with the property bubble was it was back in the days when it wasn't a crash are as follows:

1) the residential construction had siphoned a lot of our employees into a single industry to the detriment of the long term economic health of the country.
2) It couldn't last
3) when it crashed, there would be a shocking drop in the amount of tax receipts exactly at a time when there would be a shocking increase in the number of people claiming unemployment.
4) that unemployment would impact, disproportionately, men.
5) that unemployment might have a shocking impact on households where the man was the sole earner, often the case if a woman has stopped earning to look after kids.
6) the socio economic impact of a crash could not be predicted to be anything other than catastrophic.

Right now, I am seeing 2 trends

1) some people want to pretend everything was okay and it's only stupid people talking down the market and wanting cheap houses almost as a religion is the problem

2) high property prices are alright.

So for the tl;dr version of events:

disproportionately high property prices tend not to be sustainable. So if you get the high property prices on the way up, unless you get a metric tonne load of inflation, you're going to have to face a hill down.

spend as little as you can reasonably spend on your house; there is no glory and no sense in over playing. Stop assuming that you are the value of your house because when all is said and done, it's only a house. You build homes with your heart, not with your bricks.

In the grand scheme of things, a lot of our economy depended on consumer spending. If you are spending loads of money either on rent or on servicing a mortgage, that's money you're not spending in the shops. Your money spent in a shop is better for the economy than your money spent on mortgage interest.

Again, we are better off in general, in society, with low accommodation costs. Whether we do it via rent or purchase is almost immaterial. In the meantime, I see no evidence to suggest that this country has yet grown up about property.

The Spider

Calina wrote: »

I think a couple of points have been forgotten when we start talking about religion and the cost of the property crash.

So firstly, the property crash was foreseeable and avoidable and the fact that neither happened has a lot to do with will. People will not see what they do not want to see. However, once property prices went up as high as they did, the crash was pretty much inevitable. Arguing that people see the crash as a religion is trying to argue that the tide doesn't come on the west coast of Ireland twice a day.

So save me the whole "some people see the property crash as saving the great rented mass" nonsense and start dealing with reality.

People in this country could not afford their property prices 8 years ago when they were buying. It's not NOW that they couldn't afford them, it's 8 years ago.If they hadn't bought them then, perhaps the property crash might have been a) less because price growth was less and b) less catastrophic.

The key issues I had with the property bubble was it was back in the days when it wasn't a crash are as follows:

1) the residential construction had siphoned a lot of our employees into a single industry to the detriment of the long term economic health of the country.
2) It couldn't last
3) when it crashed, there would be a shocking drop in the amount of tax receipts exactly at a time when there would be a shocking increase in the number of people claiming unemployment.
4) that unemployment would impact, disproportionately, men.
5) that unemployment might have a shocking impact on households where the man was the sole earner, often the case if a woman has stopped earning to look after kids.
6) the socio economic impact of a crash could not be predicted to be anything other than catastrophic.

Right now, I am seeing 2 trends

1) some people want to pretend everything was okay and it's only stupid people talking down the market and wanting cheap houses almost as a religion is the problem

2) high property prices are alright.

So for the tl;dr version of events:

disproportionately high property prices tend not to be sustainable. So if you get the high property prices on the way up, unless you get a metric tonne load of inflation, you're going to have to face a hill down.

spend as little as you can reasonably spend on your house; there is no glory and no sense in over playing. Stop assuming that you are the value of your house because when all is said and done, it's only a house. You build homes with your heart, not with your bricks.

In the grand scheme of things, a lot of our economy depended on consumer spending. If you are spending loads of money either on rent or on servicing a mortgage, that's money you're not spending in the shops. Your money spent in a shop is better for the economy than your money spent on mortgage interest.

Again, we are better off in general, in society, with low accommodation costs. Whether we do it via rent or purchase is almost immaterial. In the meantime, I see no evidence to suggest that this country has yet grown up about property.

Religion was me being facetious, however I do agree with a lot of your points, in regard to too many people working in construction etc. It left a deficit of available people to work in industries such as IT.

Low accommodation costs are better for society, but the market doesn't remain static, prices are going up or down, the question is at what speed should they be doing it.

And the point I keep trying to make is that, I'm not against people handing back their keys, repossessions even, however the debt needs to die with relinquishing the asset, otherwise you have a generation of people who are in debt, lets face it for the rest of their lives who then have to pay rent and service what remains of a mortgage on an asset they no longer have.

This is constantly ignored or else the personal insolvancy bill is mentioned, and even though people have to take their own responsibilities, there is a valid argument that people had mortgages pushed on them from banks, who told them there'd be no problem paying it back, the bank knows their earnings, who is Joe Bloggs who works in a factory going to believe when the bank tells them to buy, and the government tells them to buy, they're not all on property sites on the internet and get their information from tv and newspapers.

However I do think the crash happened in 2007 and lasted for five years, whether you agree or not time will tell.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

No Affiliation with any group, for some people around here the property crash has become like a religion. The great messiah that will arrive and save those in rented accommodation, by taking the houses from the undeserving and allowing the renters to acquire them cheaply, and turfing the unbelievers out on the streets. There's even a big group of sinners known as V.I's who's sole purpose is to thwart the great messiah and bring their anti-crash god back to life who is known as bubble 2.

Problem is the messiah's come and gone......

And for some there is a quasi religious mindset that those who are in "ownership" of property must be kept in that status no matter what.
Even if they can no longer afford that ownership there is a mindset that everyone else should, or rather must, contribute in order that they maintain this semblance of ownership.

Hell on another forum one poster was demaning people's deposits be scarified to keep people in "homes". :mad:

Yes they are undeserving, because get this, they can no longer afford their properties.

To take your sinners and religion analogy a step further.
If anyone is asking for people to pay penance it is this group who requires others to pay for their decisions.

And please stop this sh** about how it is just renters who want cheap property.
You and others continaully lay this at the door of one particular poster around here who freely admits they are looking for value for their money.
Should they pay more to keep johnny or mary down the road in their home ?:rolleyes:

If all those who are to their necks in debt get their little bailouts everyone, both todays mortgage holders who are actually repaying their debts and the mortgage holders of years to come, will pay for it one way or another.
There is no magic money tree and debts do not just dematerialise.
Someone somewhere has to suffer their loss.

Yesterday on the Today FM (I think) radio one of New Beggings slithery characters was on talking about the new bankruptcy process.

When asked about how the taxpayers would have to foot the bill, the guy said that wasn't that big a problem since it was really only AIB and PTSB.
Afteral he admitted Ulster, NIB, KBC debt writeoffs were someone elses problem and someone else would have to cover their losses.

BTW he conveniently forgot to mention the cesspit INBS now owned by IBRC which is also owned by us taxpayers.
And BOI is still linked to us in some way although he tried to play it otherwise.

It is this mindset that pervails where it is alright so long as someone else coughs up.

Well the taxpayers who own and support AIB (including EBS), PSTB, IBRC and also to an extent BOI will end up carrying some of this cost.
And that does not even mention the customers of these institutions carrying the cost.

And I am not going to make an apology for stating I don't want to help pay off any other fookers debts.
Why should I, who acted prudently and railed against the madeness, now want to get punished so a fair amount of chancers and spendthifts get to saunter away after making collosal fookups.

For every poor family who just wanted a home I bet I could find one who overspent based on their salary, wasted wads of cash on keeping up with the jones or acted the maggot running up debts.

And the really sad thing is that the most vocal proponents of debt writeoffs are the ones least deserving of it. :mad:
The ordinary decent people keep their heads down and try their best to get on with it.