Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

handlemaster

First insolvency case gone through today according to rte.is 70% debt right off

stevedublin

handlemaster wrote: »

First insolvency case gone through today according to rte.is 70% depot right off.

said it was unsecured debt, so probably not related to property....

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Below article mentions them, but I don't think there'll be any to have a significant impact.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1125/488950-signs-of-stability-in-the-property-market-ibf/

You don't really read into the stats do you?

As was said on the Pin..

-Average loan is up 0.4% yoy
-prices are up 10-12%

Something is amiss. That is the impact of cash buyers. From the IBF, they need Q4 2013 to match or even beat Q4 2012 to make sure mortgage lending is up yr on yr as its flat so far. Remember Q4 2012 had the surge due to the MIR.

If you're a betting man, do you think there will be €1bn+ in lending in Q4 2013? Its a long shot.

spockety

moxin wrote: »

You don't really read into the stats do you?

As was said on the Pin..

-Average loan is up 0.4% yoy
-prices are up 10-12%

Something is amiss. That is the impact of cash buyers. From the IBF, they need Q4 2013 to match or even beat Q4 2012 to make sure mortgage lending is up yr on yr as its flat so far. Remember Q4 2012 had the surge due to the MIR.

If you're a betting man, do you think there will be €1bn+ in lending in Q4 2013? Its a long shot.

Q4 2013 will have a surge due to the property tax exemption f**k up.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

This is constantly ignored or else the personal insolvancy bill is mentioned, and even though people have to take their own responsibilities, there is a valid argument that people had mortgages pushed on them from banks, who told them there'd be no problem paying it back, the bank knows their earnings, who is Joe Bloggs who works in a factory going to believe when the bank tells them to buy, and the government tells them to buy, they're not all on property sites on the internet and get their information from tv and newspapers.

Following the herd without question, and believing what some higher authority tells you is classic religious behaviour. Not to mention denouncing a few lone heretics who contradict the prevailing group think. The funny thing is even after the crash, the same message from the VI's in the media and the government hasn't really changed at all. They are still waiting for the second coming of the Property Bubble 2.0 to solve all our problems.

However I do think the crash happened in 2007 and lasted for five years, whether you agree or not time will tell.

The key point is: where is all this money to purchase dearer houses going to come from? I just don't see it. Cash buyers are not going to sustain the market indefinitely, the banks are a hairs breath away from going bust again if they don't get the arrears problem under control, and will still have 400k unemployed. Eventually building is going to kick off again in Dublin boosting supply, and the troika are still pressuring the government to kick off a wave of repossessions.

lima

I should probably try and get the biggest mortgage possible now and immediately not pay it back :rolleyes:

Anyone who gets any sort of debt write off need to be punished. They need their house taken from them to pay for some of the money they owe, and they can get into an arrangement to pay the rest. There is absolutely no reason why I should contribute to a stranger living in a house for free, whilst I get nothing for free for being prudent and not getting suckered into the 'boom'

jay0109

rte news tonight mentioned another bankruptcy case i the pipeline, this time with mortgage debt of 670k. House is to be sold for 150k and the difference written off as part of the settlement.
RTE Business correspondent David Murphy, however painted this as not really a great template deal for those in similar enough situations as rents are increasing and so are house prices!!!

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

And for some there is a quasi religious mindset that those who are in "ownership" of property must be kept in that status no matter what.
Even if they can no longer afford that ownership there is a mindset that everyone else should, or rather must, contribute in order that they maintain this semblance of ownership.

Hell on another forum one poster was demaning people's deposits be scarified to keep people in "homes". :mad:

Yes they are undeserving, because get this, they can no longer afford their properties.

To take your sinners and religion analogy a step further.
If anyone is asking for people to pay penance it is this group who requires others to pay for their decisions.

And please stop this sh** about how it is just renters who want cheap property.
You and others continaully lay this at the door of one particular poster around here who freely admits they are looking for value for their money.
Should they pay more to keep johnny or mary down the road in their home ?:rolleyes:

If all those who are to their necks in debt get their little bailouts everyone, both todays mortgage holders who are actually repaying their debts and the mortgage holders of years to come, will pay for it one way or another.
There is no magic money tree and debts do not just dematerialise.
Someone somewhere has to suffer their loss.

Yesterday on the Today FM (I think) radio one of New Beggings slithery characters was on talking about the new bankruptcy process.

When asked about how the taxpayers would have to foot the bill, the guy said that wasn't that big a problem since it was really only AIB and PTSB.
Afteral he admitted Ulster, NIB, KBC debt writeoffs were someone elses problem and someone else would have to cover their losses.

BTW he conveniently forgot to mention the cesspit INBS now owned by IBRC which is also owned by us taxpayers.
And BOI is still linked to us in some way although he tried to play it otherwise.

It is this mindset that pervails where it is alright so long as someone else coughs up.

Well the taxpayers who own and support AIB (including EBS), PSTB, IBRC and also to an extent BOI will end up carrying some of this cost.
And that does not even mention the customers of these institutions carrying the cost.

And I am not going to make an apology for stating I don't want to help pay off any other fookers debts.
Why should I, who acted prudently and railed against the madeness, now want to get punished so a fair amount of chancers and spendthifts get to saunter away after making collosal fookups.

For every poor family who just wanted a home I bet I could find one who overspent based on their salary, wasted wads of cash on keeping up with the jones or acted the maggot running up debts.

And the really sad thing is that the most vocal proponents of debt writeoffs are the ones least deserving of it. :mad:
The ordinary decent people keep their heads down and try their best to get on with it.

Ah I see you not only want repossessions, you also want a pound of flesh. And this is the reason repossessions if they happen will be dragged out for years.

If I can't afford my mortgage, and I'm in negative equity If the bank takes the house andI'm debt free I'm more likely to do it.

I'c however the bank wants the house and keep me and my family in debt forever, well then I'll do everything in my power to make sure it doesn't happen.

A lot of the talk on this thread is people seeking vengeance for some weird perceived slight, from strangers who bought houses, I have news people who bought houses did nothing to you, they just bought a house.

Before you mention the fact ghat you'd paying for it, you're not the taxpayer is and I seriously doubt that your contribution to the exchequer is so big that you're going to be seriously impacted by any of it.

Nope this is people annoyed at not buying a house, or mistiming it whatever, or houses not dropping to a point where they could get in, in their desired area

There's no right and wrong in this, there's smart and stupid, time'll tell who's who.

Cuddlesworth

jay0109 wrote: »

rte news tonight mentioned another bankruptcy case i the pipeline, this time with mortgage debt of 670k. House is to be sold for 150k and the difference written off as part of the settlement.
RTE Business correspondent David Murphy, however painted this as not really a great template deal for those in similar enough situations as rents are increasing and so are house prices!!!

I'm not sure how this in any way helps the banks. If I had a unsustainable mortgage like the above, I jump on the chance of that deal in a instant and stop paying my mortgage immediately. Plenty of people paid stupid money for Mac Mansions in the middle of nowhere, who are looking at paying off 500k for a area where you can get a equivalent house rented for next to nothing.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

Following the herd without question, and believing what some higher authority tells you is classic religious behaviour. Not to mention denouncing a few lone heretics who contradict the prevailing group think. The funny thing is even after the crash, the same message from the VI's in the media and the government hasn't really changed at all. They are still waiting for the second coming of the Property Bubble 2.0 to solve all our problems.


The key point is: where is all this money to purchase dearer houses going to come from? I just don't see it. Cash buyers are not going to sustain the market indefinitely, the banks are a hairs breath away from going bust again if they don't get the arrears problem under control, and will still have 400k unemployed. Eventually building is going to kick off again in Dublin boosting
supply, and the troika are still pressuring the government to kick off a wave of repossessions.

Yes and this was trotted out all the way through the boom, I probably said it myself when I was firmly perched on your side of the fence, and believe me I was perched there from 1995- early 2011.

You've partially answered your own question about the unemployed, building kicking off again in Dublin, where's the money going to come from, honestly don't know, if I did I'd be a very rich man, however if you said to me in 1995 that houses in ranelagh that were being sold for 80'000 were going to be fetching well over 2 million in less than 10 years I would have thought you were nuts.

Buisnesses can't predict more than 3 months in advance, either can I or you guys, all you can do is look at what's happening now, and ask yourself the last this happened how long did it last?

Depending on your age you'll have to decide what to do, if you're in early twenties, you can sit back and see where it goes, even late twenties to early thirties, after that if you're thinking of buying bear in mind that this could go on for 10-12 years, and then even if they crash they may not crash as far as you think.

We're over 50 % below peak, that's huge, not sure how much more people think they can drop and if they did you'd have no supply because people won't sell at such a loss.

gaius c

Charlie Allen, he of the Rodolphus Allen Family Private Trust, has been arrested in Cork.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

Yes and this was trotted out all the way through the boom, I probably said it myself when I was firmly perched on your side of the fence, and believe me I was perched there from 1995- early 2011.

You've partially answered your own question about the unemployed, building kicking off again in Dublin, where's the money going to come from, honestly don't know, if I did I'd be a very rich man, however if you said to me in 1995 that houses in ranelagh that were being sold for 80'000 were going to be fetching well over 2 million in less than 10 years I would have thought you were nuts.

Just some quick points….

The difference between now and during the boom was the availability of cheap credit. That is not available anymore and won’t be for quite some time given the state of our banks (not to mention the wider world economy).

Yes, the building trade will pick up soon. But it is highly unlikely that it will ever return to the scale it was at during the boom where it employed 25% of the adult male work force. There are no critical mass of manual or semi-skilled labouring jobs on tap to re-employ those who lost their jobs in the boom. I can’t see the average man in the street becoming significantly richer during the next 5 years either.

Businesses can't predict more than 3 months in advance, either can I or you guys, all you can do is look at what's happening now, and ask yourself the last this happened how long did it last?

Again, I would have to disagree with this. Successful well-run businesses do this all the time (hint: these are the ones still in business after the boom, and even profiting from in the case of my own employer, a tech company).

I intend on buying myself in the next few years. Probably after the looming wave of BTL repossessions kicks in, and what’s left of the NAMA residential stock is finally released on to the market. I would be happy to pay a fair price to a seller if (and hopefully when) we have a properly functioning housing market, and not some pyramid scheme designed by the government to artificially prop up the market at the expense of wider society.

Finally, you seem to be under the mistaken impression that the exchequer is some sort of magical, bottomless money pit. Just keep in mind what Maggie Thatcher said about socialism: eventually you run out of other peoples money. There is no happy ending here despite what the VI’s and the government are telling you.

We're over 50 % below peak, that's huge, not sure how much more people think they can drop and if they did you'd have no supply because people won't sell at such a loss.

I agree there will probably always be a shortage in places like SCD, but that only effects a tiny slice of the over all market.

Most home owners are not interested in selling either way. The BTL crowd can continue to do well enough from renting their properties if they so choose. In the meantime, if building kicks off again, people can buy new houses for much less than what they would have paid during the boom.

lima

I guess my first world problem of not being able to get a cheap house is nothing compared to the pain, anguish and complete sense of failure all those who fail to pay their debts will feel for the rest of their lives. Oh well..

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

We're over 50 % below peak, that's huge, not sure how much more people think they can drop and if they did you'd have no supply because people won't sell at such a loss.

Property prices can't possibly fall further because they've already fallen "by a lot"?








Sounds convincing.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Ah I see you not only want repossessions, you also want a pound of flesh. And this is the reason repossessions if they happen will be dragged out for years.

I want people to take bloody responsibility for their actions, not go off looking for someone else to fooking blame and dump the sh** on.

The Spider wrote: »

If I can't afford my mortgage, and I'm in negative equity If the bank takes the house andI'm debt free I'm more likely to do it.

Except what you and others seem to want is that you get your debts written off and you get no repossession.

The Spider wrote: »

I'c however the bank wants the house and keep me and my family in debt forever, well then I'll do everything in my power to make sure it doesn't happen.

A lot of the talk on this thread is people seeking vengeance for some weird perceived slight, from strangers who bought houses, I have news people who bought houses did nothing to you, they just bought a house.

Speaking for myself I do want some fookers to take responsibility and yes even be made suffer the mess they created for themselves often through a combination of greed, arrogance and ignorance.
There is a fair chunk of people out there looking for their debts written off when they acted in a completly reckless fashion.
I know of people who took out massive loans, often to become developers, and who then rolled in fancy new car loans, boat loans, holiday trips, etc into their mortgage debts.
Do I want to see these people get a bailout or debt writeoff ?
Do I fook because it probably the likes of my family and I who will invariably pay for it.

Do I begrudge some poor family who due to unforeseen cicumstances like sickness, marital split, unemployment, etc are now stuck in massive debt and thus need to get some if not a lot of their debts written off ?
No I don't begrduge these people.
But that still doesn't mean I want them living in their house for free whilst I pay for mine.

The funny thing is the ones most deserving are often the least vocal.
Or perhaps you haven't noticed how these debt writeoff campaigns have been hijacked by people like ex fianna fail developers ?

The Spider wrote: »

Before you mention the fact ghat you'd paying for it, you're not the taxpayer is and I seriously doubt that your contribution to the exchequer is so big that you're going to be seriously impacted by any of it.

Ah yes the usual bullsh** trotted out by those who don't want public spending cuts or want to spend even more public money than we have.

Ever heard the term "all the pennies and pounds/euro add up" ?
Nah you probably haven't. :rolleyes:

BTW sunshine I am a taxpayer and live in this country.
If public expenditure is affected then so am I in some respect.

gaius c wrote: »

Charlie Allen, he of the Rodolphus Allen Family Private Trust, has been arrested in Cork.

Fair dues to the Examiner who appear to have kept an eye for this guy as he tried to evade a high court bench warrant.

If only some of other daily newspapers (probably not fair description of them)
would keep such an eye for dodgy types involved in property operations.

gaius c

One in four people entering insolvency negotiations with creditors have voluntary surrendered their homes, a firm working in the sector said this morning.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Except what you and others seem to want is that you get your debts written off and you get no repossession.

Don't think I said that, I don't have a problem with it as long as the debt, disappears when the house is repossessed, and that's what seems to be happening, so that should keep everyone happy.

The_Conductor

gaius c wrote: »

One in four people entering insolvency negotiations with creditors have voluntary surrendered their homes, a firm working in the sector said this morning.

Aka- 5 of the 20 so far in the system.
The numbers are so low as to be meaningless- however they do indicate that in a significant number of cases, people are volunteering to hand back the keys, and having their offer accepted.

cookie1977

The_Conductor wrote: »

Aka- 5 of the 20 so far in the system.
The numbers are so low as to be meaningless- however they do indicate that in a significant number of cases, people are volunteering to hand back the keys, and having their offer accepted.

Without though an insight into the level of debt those doing these deals have it's difficult to say where this is all going. Are the banks cooperating or are they still being selective. And without over stating the point this data quotes is from a PIP. Not really an independent source in my mind. Hope CB can produce some official stats on this.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Don't think I said that, I don't have a problem with it as long as the debt, disappears when the house is repossessed, and that's what seems to be happening, so that should keep everyone happy.

So you are completely happy with paying for some stranger to live in their big home with 2 x cars? That's just odd.

It astonishes me this warped empathy for people who consciously overborrowed and who decided 4 years ago not to pay their debts back, while at the same time there is such hostility towards renters and people who weren't even here when the boom thing was going on.

they deserve to be punished and should feel like fools for the rest of their lives. It makes utterly no sense that we should feel sorry for the very people who caused the crisis by feeling they were entitled to live in a huge house.

Also, anyone who pulls the suicide card should just go off and jump off a bridge, it will show their stupidity.

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

So you are completely happy with paying for some stranger to live in their big home with 2 x cars? That's just odd.

It astonishes me this warped empathy for people who consciously overborrowed and who decided 4 years ago not to pay their debts back, while at the same time there is such hostility towards renters and people who weren't even here when the boom thing was going on.

they deserve to be punished and should feel like fools for the rest of their lives. It makes utterly no sense that we should feel sorry for the very people who caused the crisis by feeling they were entitled to live in a huge house.

Also, anyone who pulls the suicide card should just go off and jump off a bridge, it will show their stupidity.

Your ability to equate all those in arrears as being equal can only be matched by your astonishing knowledge and understanding of the entire situation. If you're posting purely for effect then hats off to you. But if these are your true feelings then the country is better off without you.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

Your ability to equate all those in arrears as being equal can only be matched by your astonishing knowledge and understanding of the entire situation. If you're posting purely for effect then hats off to you. But if these are your true feelings then the country is better off without you.

In fairness there are certainly many that this place is better off without, namely the people not paying their debts and living in houses for free, as well as the vested interest lobbyists etc.

cookie1977

lima wrote: »

In fairness there are certainly many that this place is better off without, namely the people not paying their debts and living in houses for free, as well as the vested interest lobbyists etc.

In fairness you dont know what that word means as you yourself are one of those vested interests that you speak about.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

In fairness you dont know what that word means as you yourself are one of those vested interests that you speak about.

I just want fairness. I shouldn't have to pay higher taxes and a premium to buy a house because some stranger is not paying their mortgage for 4 years.

I really thought I was doing something good by taking a job here in Ireland that would otherwise have been moved somewhere else.

Instead I have to deal with high taxes & property prices being artificially high because of these strangers 1. taking stupid loans out and 2. Refusing to pay them

Every repossession case I hear about makes me happy because it's one more step to this place becoming more normal

cookie1977

You dont sound like you want fairness. You sound like you want your pound of flesh. As I've said you equate all non payers as all being the same which is far from the truth. You want them to have to pay back all the debt over their lives no matter what. Even after house repossession and sale you still want them to pay back the rest of the debt. I pity you to be honest.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

You dont sound like you want fairness. You sound like you want your pound of flesh. As I've said you equate all non payers as all being the same which is far from the truth. You want them to have to pay back all the debt over their lives no matter what. Even after house repossession and sale you still want them to pay back the rest of the debt. I pity you to be honest.

Well it could be worse, I have no debts.

cookie1977

Debt isn't a bad word. It shows maturity, something you clearly lack.

gaius c

cookie1977 wrote: »

Debt isn't a bad word. It shows maturity, something you clearly lack.

You're not a proper "grown up" until you take on a big mortgage?

The_Conductor

Less slinging about of insults, innuendo and bravado please.

lima

cookie1977 wrote: »

Debt isn't a bad word. It shows maturity, something you clearly lack.

Debt is living beyond your means.

Surely thinking ahead, planning and having the smarts not to get caught up in debt by keeping up with next door shows a lot more maturity.

e.g:
I'm off now to cycle home to my rented apartment as I don't need a 4br house and a new car, even though I can afford both (well not in SCD anyway!).