Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

The Spider

Zamboni wrote: »

So there are lots of apartments in Sandyford and Dundrum. But there are also thousands of family homes in SCD.
What would lead you to believe that 99.9% of the BTLs in SCD are apartments?

I don't believe there is any publicly available breakdown of distressed BTLs mortgages by property type.

Observation, and the desirability of the area to families, I don't believe there is a large amount of houses that are BTL's but again speculation, it could turn out that 70% of 3 bed semis in SCD are BTL's I'd doubt it, but then again if that turned out to be the case, I'd also have to check if the world was round, and not flat.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Observation, and the desirability of the area to families, I don't believe there is a large amount of houses that are BTL's but again speculation, it could turn out that 70% of 3 bed semis in SCD are BTL's I'd doubt it, but then again if that turned out to be the case, I'd also have to check if the world was round, and not flat.

The PRTB register would be a good start as to how many actual legit "family home" rentals are out there in a particular area. Of course it wouldn't count the empties or the tax evasive landlords.

gaius c

moxin wrote: »

The PRTB register would be a good start as to how many actual legit "family home" rentals are out there in a particular area. Of course it wouldn't count the empties or the tax evasive landlords.

How many family homes are being rented as houseshares though?
Free up some apartments and single folk might rent those instead of clogging up houses that could be used as family homes.

cookie1977

gaius c wrote: »

How many family homes are being rented as houseshares though?
Free up some apartments and single folk might rent those instead of clogging up houses that could be used as family homes.

That's pure speculation! (Sorry couldn't resist)

gaius c

cookie1977 wrote: »

That's pure speculation! (Sorry couldn't resist)

*Post reported for being mean*

Not sure what age profile you are but if you were renting as a singleton from mid 90's to early 00's, you were almost certainly renting in a houseshare rather than an apartment. That's why Irish houses have more than one rubbish bathrooms rather than one good one. They were designed for house sharing rather than use by one family.

jmayo

cookie1977 wrote: »

It really shows the stupidity of the banks. We have mortgages out there that are can pay wont pay and limited money in the the banking system and what do they do? They go after mortgages that they themselves acknowledge are not in arrears and quote are "slightly pre paid!".

The daily cost of the high court can be from 10-20K. It really does beggar belief how most of these banks operate.

And it is only now you have come to that realisation ? :eek:

gaius c wrote: »

How many family homes are being rented as houseshares though?
Free up some apartments and single folk might rent those instead of clogging up houses that could be used as family homes.

Speaking from experience there were a fair few houseshares in the likes of Blackrock, Booterstown, Stillorgan, Leopardstown.

Now I am not sure if all of those were suddenly sold as family homes post 2002 and the only thing renters had were apartments in places like Dundrum, Sandyford, or Blackrock.
I doubt it.
Thing here is, how many existing landlords expanded and used their existing stock as leverage.
These could be some of the ones in trouble.

cookie1977

jmayo wrote: »

And it is only now you have come to that realisation ? :eek:

Quite the contrary. I've always thought (throughout this thread) the banks have not done enough to solve their own crisis.

lima

Looking forward to a nice cheap apt soon, noticed quite a few appearing online lately, roll on repo year 2014

ezra_pound

Daft houses for letting Dublin south city and south county c. 350
Total letting same areas c. 850

Very rough and disregards house share etc. And fact that houses less likely to be on market as long as other types. But indicates figure c. 40% of btls are houses.

I assume that the real figure is at least 50%

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

Looking forward to a nice cheap apt soon, noticed quite a few appearing online lately, roll on repo year 2014

Enjoy the wait

Zamboni

handlemaster wrote: »

Enjoy the wait

Do you think private BOI investors will allow unsustainable BTL mortgaged properties not to be reposessed and sold in a rising market?

Villa05

Just wanted to go over some of Mcdooks posts

McDook wrote: »

Ireland has some of the harshest bankruptcy laws in the world. So its not surprising to me that people are trying to bite back instead of going bankrupt.

When you go bankrupt you should be stripped of what you have at the moment of bankruptcy and have a short period of reflection and then the counter goes back to zero. But here the counter goes to minus hundreds of thousands. Thats never going to work as far as i can see..

Seen as Ireland has gone full circle on bankruptcy. Apparently now you can keep the house, the 2 cars and continue sending the children to private schools in some cases (Morduant or whatever his face is) Mcdooks post is irrelevant to future trends and more reflective of the past and would be unusual for someone who is currently working in this area to refer to past processes to predict future outcomes

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bankruptcy-offers-some-people-a-break-their-debts-end-overnight-29798830.html

What happens when people see that this insolvency/bankruptcy process could put them in a more rosy position than they are currently scraping to meet payments on the mortgage(s)

McDook wrote: »

Myself and my wife work in two different fields that deal with repossessions.

While McDook seems privy to strategic decisions been taken by banks, his first post on boards would indicate that business is very quiet

McDook wrote: »

I bought a Huwaii B683 router from three as part of a 12 month contract for mobile BB.

That 12 month contract is now up and I want to sell that router so that I can buy a decent one.

The only problem is that it is locked to using a three sim.

How do I get this router unlocked so that I can sell it on to get money for a new router?

http://www.boards.ie/ttfthread/2057089286/1#post87649926


McDook, Sorry if this post is too personal.

mr_seer

Interesting that bank's targets are shifting from "offers of solutions" to "resolutions". Seeing as 55% of offers of solutions are currently voluntary sale or repossession, I expect that we will see a lot of legal proceedings entering the court system just before March 2014. It will take months for these cases to get through the legal system, then more months that the judge will allow for the mortgagee to leave the property and then still more time for the Sheriff to evict the mortgagee when they don't leave voluntarily. The bank will then sit on the property for at least a few more months. During all of this time, property prices will continue to inflate and people on forums will be saying "sure prices are still 10% lower than they were in 2007" and talking about "the recovery". The usual economists like R Lyons from Daft will say "it can't be a bubble because there is no freely available liquidity". Within about two years, the double dip will hit hard.

McDook

Villa05 wrote: »

Just wanted to go over some of Mcdooks posts


Seen as Ireland has gone full circle on bankruptcy. Apparently now you can keep the house, the 2 cars and continue sending the children to private schools in some cases (Morduant or whatever his face is) Mcdooks post is irrelevant to future trends and more reflective of the past and would be unusual for someone who is currently working in this area to refer to past processes to predict future outcomes

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bankruptcy-offers-some-people-a-break-their-debts-end-overnight-29798830.html

What happens when people see that this insolvency/bankruptcy process could put them in a more rosy position than they are currently scraping to meet payments on the mortgage(s)



While McDook seems privy to strategic decisions been taken by banks, his first post on boards would indicate that business is very quiet



http://www.boards.ie/ttfthread/2057089286/1#post87649926


McDook, Sorry if this post is too personal.

Sorry, couldnt resist coming back to ask what is the point of this post. Some sort of personal attack?

I think you'll find that my posts are fairly accurate. Yours seem to all speculation reading back through them.

And what has me trying the get a router unlocked got to do with anything?
So what if I want to get a new router and what else would I do with the old one but sell it. I even have a workmate who has dibs on it, but an unlocked one is no good to him.

And if you think that the new bankruptcy changes are going to put any significant number of people in a more rosy position, you obviously havent looked into it. You really are grasping at straws if you are posting an indo article as proof of ANYTHING.

I think this is a personal attack and you seem to do a lot of that having just looked at posts by you in this and other threads. It looks to me that you have been wanting this glut of repos to happen for years now and its not happening and you are getting a little upset and would rather play the man than the ball.
Why bother?
As the bulls were trying to talk up the market in 2006 and discovered that you cant talk up the market, it should now be becoming clear that you cant talk down the market either.

McDook

cookie1977 wrote: »

It really shows the stupidity of the banks. We have mortgages out there that are can pay wont pay and limited money in the the banking system and what do they do? They go after mortgages that they themselves acknowledge are not in arrears and quote are "slightly pre paid!".

The daily cost of the high court can be from 10-20K. It really does beggar belief how most of these banks operate.

While im here answering Villa05s little dig.

Expect to see that costs decision reversed.
If it is shown that the bank could have aborted the case at any time after discovering that there were no longer arrears, before running up the costs. Im sure that will be easy.

This was clearly a test case for that scenario. The bank lost, dont expect them to try bringing a case like this again.



As a last word in this thread.
How long has this thread been going on now? Whats happened with repos and property prices?
Does anyone seriously want to call rising property prices at this stage a bubble?
Good night and good luck.

gaius c

lima wrote: »

Looking forward to a nice cheap apt soon, noticed quite a few appearing online lately, roll on repo year 2014

Victor

Villa05 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/ttfthread/2057089286/1#post87649926


McDook, Sorry if this post is too personal.

Please don't drag other topic into this one.

gaius c wrote: »

On topic please.

Moderator

handlemaster

Zamboni wrote: »

Do you think private BOI investors will allow unsustainable BTL mortgaged properties not to be reposessed and sold in a rising market?

If a mortgage is not been paid repossession and sell by the banks is best option. I woundnt hold out much hope of a cheap property not in Dublin anyhow you've missed the boat there.

Zamboni

handlemaster wrote: »

If a mortgage is not been paid repossession and sell by the banks is best option. I woundnt hold out much hope of a cheap property not in Dublin anyhow you've missed the boat there.

Your two sentences contradict each other.

PS: I'm not waiting on any boat.

handlemaster

Zamboni wrote: »

Your two sentences contradict each other.

PS: I'm not waiting on any boat.

I presume you think because a property is been sold by the bank its going to be cheap which is not necessarily the case. Your still waiting as you said in your post for a cheap property so enjoy the wait..

jmayo

cookie1977 wrote: »

Quite the contrary. I've always thought (throughout this thread) the banks have not done enough to solve their own crisis.

The problem is to solve their crisis they need money and lots of it.
And the banks have shag all money and are on the brink of collapse.
The Irish banks are owned by the state and beholden to the government and politicans.

If the banks chose to write off debt then they need to find the money from somewhere.
That somewhere invariably is the taxpayer and by extension either the troika or EU/ECB. They are not going to just hand over yet more money to the Irish to shore up our banks from yet more losses.
that is why the next tranche of recapitalisation will most probably be something akin to Cyprus.

If the banks chose to follow normal operating procedures and start process of repossessing properties where people have not been paying their mortgages for well over a year, then they encur the wrath of the politicans who do not want to see the historical unpopular scene of evictions.

Also added to the mix is the fact that repossessing property in this state is a long drawn out process and the banks (both Irish and foreign) don't want to have to release lots of repossessed property onto the market to drive prices down.

Something has to give and the Troika were forever telling the government and the banks to start sorting out the mess.
There has been a lot of can kicking going on.

Zamboni

handlemaster wrote: »

I presume you think because a property is been sold by the bank its going to be cheap which is not necessarily the case. Your still waiting as you said in your post for a cheap property so enjoy the wait..

You are not reading properly at all are you?
Lima is waiting for a cheap property.

Tea drinker

moxin wrote: »

The PRTB register would be a good start as to how many actual legit "family home" rentals are out there in a particular area. Of course it wouldn't count the empties or the tax evasive landlords.

Given that some rentals were bought on tracker mortgages... it would be a hard enough to tie down stats on this

moxin

Tea drinker wrote: »

Given that some rentals were bought on tracker mortgages... it would be a hard enough to tie down stats on this

We know that. I was simply pointing out a source for how many family homes are rented in SCD. After that its guesswork on how many might be in arrears.

murphaph

Zamboni wrote: »

Do you think private BOI investors will allow unsustainable BTL mortgaged properties not to be reposessed and sold in a rising market?

If the market is rising lima still won't get his CHEAP apartment, which is what he said he expected in 2014.

Daith

murphaph wrote: »

If the market is rising lima still won't get his CHEAP apartment, which is what he said he expected in 2014.

I think the argument that alot of rising prices is due to supply constraint. With more BTL coming onto market it may mean cheaper prices.

I don't think it will be a flood though, more a trickle.

murphaph

Daith wrote: »

I don't think it will be a flood though, more a trickle.

That's what I think as well. The courts system isn't even set up to handle masses of cases. That alone puts a huge bottleneck in the way of swift repos.

handlemaster

Zamboni wrote: »

You are not reading properly at all are you?
Lima is waiting for a cheap property.

And he finished the statement off with roll" repo year 2014".

lima

handlemaster wrote: »

And he finished the statement off with roll" repo year 2014".

I'm waiting but am content in waiting or possibly never buying as property is extremely overpriced as it is. I have a possibility to emigrate to a high quality of life country do to personal circumstances so I may consider this if things don't change.

I also want to more repossessions as opposed to debt write-offs as I personally am against write-offs as I believe people should be held responsible for their own actions of walking into banks and asking for huge loans in this country.

Tea drinker

lima wrote: »

I'm waiting but am content in waiting or possibly never buying as property is extremely overpriced as it is. I have a possibility to emigrate to a high quality of life country do to personal circumstances so I may consider this if things don't change.

I also want to more repossessions as opposed to debt write-offs as I personally am against write-offs as I believe people should be held responsible for their own actions of walking into banks and asking for huge loans in this country.

Things aren't going to change, planning your life around the Irish property is a bad strategy. Ask me how I know.