Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

Victor

SeanSouth wrote: »

@ Moxin you remind me a little bit of Comical Ali, the Iraqi pres officer during the american invasion of Iraq in 2003. Basically, he was the king of spin. Many people still talk about him.

Please don't personalise your posts.

Moderator

moxin

moxin wrote: »

By the way the rate of increase in Dublin overall prices has fallen for the 3rd month in a row since the big increase in Sept. Its the same fall for Dublin houses(Apartment increases per month are all over the place)
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexnovember2013/#.Urga4vvLJka

Dub overall increase
Sept - 3.9
Oct - 2.3
Nov -1.3

Dub houses increase
Sept - 4.2
Oct - 2.0
Nov - 1.4

4th month in a row now the rate of increase has fallen.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2013/#.UuD9cvvFK70

Dub overall increase
Sept - 3.9
Oct - 2.3
Nov -1.3
Dec - 0.3

Dub houses increase
Sept - 4.2
Oct - 2.0
Nov - 1.4
Dec - 0.1

gaius c

With the tiny volume of transactions, I don't think the rate of change of less than half the actual number of transactions is really all that helpful.

cookie1977

And you're also looking at rate changes over 30 days. It's too small a period to be making any sort of comment on.

moxin

gaius c wrote: »

With the tiny volume of transactions, I don't think the rate of change of less than half the actual number of transactions is really all that helpful.

They don't tell us the amount of transaction involved, they keep releasing the same statement every month.

The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.

cookie1977 wrote: »

And you're also looking at rate changes over 30 days. It's too small a period to be making any sort of comment on.

Look at the 3 month rate, its falling too. The peak looks to be September.

cookie1977

I don't feel I can comment on the data either way but I would add that December usually sees very low activity anyway in property sales. Year on year data is more indicative of what "might" be happening in the market. If we are at the bottom we'd expect to hover here for a while with minor fluctuations in the market up and down until there's more confidence.

moxin

cookie1977 wrote: »

I don't feel I can comment on the data either way but I would add that December usually sees very low activity anyway in property sales. Year on year data is more indicative of what "might" be happening in the market. If we are at the bottom we'd expect to hover here for a while with minor fluctuations in the market up and down until there's more confidence.

Dec 2012 had a proven surge of MIR sales. PPR says 8830

Dec 2013 "might" have had a surge of LPT exemption sales. The PPR total for that month looks to be up.(source: the Pin http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=53240&start=360) The PPR itself says 9952 so far for Dublin.

gaius c

moxin wrote: »

They don't tell us the amount of transaction involved, they keep releasing the same statement every month.




Look at the 3 month rate, its falling too. The peak looks to be September.

I'm as bearish as they come but I still feel that you're torturing the data to make it confess.

I'll believe that house prices are falling when they actually do fall and for 3 months in a row. There's too much messing with the market at the moment to get a clear picture.

moxin

gaius c wrote: »

I'm as bearish as they come but I still feel that you're torturing the data to make it confess.

I'll believe that house prices are falling when they actually do fall and for 3 months in a row. There's too much messing with the market at the moment to get a clear picture.

Well at this rate, there is a high probability of minus figures for Jan. Unless there is some turnaround by March, will you be happy then?

Raffeal

Or possibly a levelling out, there's only so many property's suitable for foreign investors, the same holds for ingenious investors. The surge could have run it's course and now we'll see this bumping along at the bottom of the market value that we've heard about.

GavMan

Taking out the Market, there was a fall in price nationally also. Which is interesting to not in itself.

Perhaps at the end of the quarter, a 6 month analysis might show us more where we're at

gaius c

moxin wrote: »

Well at this rate, there is a high probability of minus figures for Jan. Unless there is some turnaround by March, will you be happy then?

There's no happy or sad about it.
It's the morkesh roysh.

Villa05

Another 9,000 odd properties to add to the arrears list

Now new figures show arrears among the six firms that operated that sector is far higher than the industry average.

The level of arrears in Ireland is 17% in terms of amounts owed across the industry, but among sub-prime lenders the figure is 56%.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0123/499568-sub-prime-mortgages/

Also, the growing gap between mortgage approvals and actual mortgage lending suggests there is latent demand to absorb greater supply from repossessions and voluntary sales," he added.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0123/499640-recovery-in-property-prices-continued-in-december/

Does this indicate that prices are too high for many mortgage customers

cookie1977

Villa05 wrote: »

Another 9,000 odd properties to add to the arrears list


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0123/499568-sub-prime-mortgages/



http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0123/499640-recovery-in-property-prices-continued-in-december/

Does this indicate that prices are too high for many mortgage customers

News: Subprime mortgage lenders have worst arrears
In other news: Grass is green

Is this news really a shock or surprise to anyone? And it's interesting to see that the same person you're quoting also thinks...

Many mortgage loans, however, may be brought back to performance without resorting to repossession.

Villa05

cookie1977 wrote: »

News: Subprime mortgage lenders have worst arrears
In other news: Grass is green

Is this news really a shock or surprise to anyone? And it's interesting to see that the same person you're quoting also thinks...

Just putting figures on it cookie, Don't knock em when they come out as they are bloody hard to get in this country

The guy quoted as follows

Conall MacCoille, chief economist with Davy, pointed out that the rate of property price inflation was at its highest level since July 2007.

He believes annual house price inflation will likely accelerate to 10% in the coming months as price declines in early 2013 fall out of the annual comparison.

"Voluntary sales and repossessions of Irish properties look set to rise from exceptionally low levels given the extent of non-performing loans," Conall MacCoille said.

"Many mortgage loans, however, may be brought back to performance without resorting to repossession. Also, the growing gap between mortgage approvals and actual mortgage lending suggests there is latent demand to absorb greater supply from repossessions and voluntary sales," he added.

He argues that there is growing number of people with mortgage approval that are not using it, he uses this to indicate that prices will not fall because of this "latent demand"
I would argue that that latent demand cannot afford current prices and repossesions will have to fall from current price level to achieve a sale.

I have no issue with getting mortgages back on track, a tougher stance wall always do this. The long term arrears are still growing and have the potential to intiate a second crash

cookie1977

Not knocking them. They aren't new in that they would have been part of the CB stats. I was just really referring to the fact that the media is reporting this as news.

Re the other stuff. It's just painful to see inactivity on dealing with arrears in any sort of a way.

cookie1977

This is interesting:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0124/500055-insolvency-mortgage/

They don't say what the actual deal was but it covered 600,000 debt across a BTL and a PDH.

moxin

Indo frenzy now with their fantasy(imo) predictions. http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/family-purchasers-playing-big-role-in-this-popular-area-29944911.html and http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/surge-in-capitals-property-prices-set-to-cool-this-year-29945724.html and http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/investors-flooded-the-market-snapping-up-familysized-properties-and-let-them-out-29944923.html

Interestingly they claim the CSO is 4 months behind the market, we know they lag but how do they know its exactly 4 months?

Unlike the recent CSO data which is four months behind the market and excludes cash buyers, the Independent's survey covers current achievable prices.

Apparently they name the best forming postcodes in Dublin(D14) but fail to mention most other areas which are mostly Northside\Westside. Actually they only name Southside postcodes :rolleyes: It furthers my argument that not all areas in Dublin are equal in market performance.

Cash buyers are 70% of the market in Ballyfermot!!

The unprecedented surge came mostly late in the year with a rush of cash buyers (seven out of ten in this area) who had been saving hard for years and waiting for the bottom.

McDook

moxin wrote: »

Indo frenzy now with their fantasy(imo) predictions. http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/family-purchasers-playing-big-role-in-this-popular-area-29944911.html and http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/surge-in-capitals-property-prices-set-to-cool-this-year-29945724.html and http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/investors-flooded-the-market-snapping-up-familysized-properties-and-let-them-out-29944923.html

Interestingly they claim the CSO is 4 months behind the market, we know they lag but how do they know its exactly 4 months?


Apparently they name the best forming postcodes in Dublin(D14) but fail to mention most other areas which are mostly Northside\Westside. Actually they only name Southside postcodes :rolleyes: It furthers my argument that not all areas in Dublin are equal in market performance.

Cash buyers are 70% of the market in Ballyfermot!!

So you rubbish the indo in one breath.
And then claim that their article furthers your argument in the next.

I would recommend people just dont read the indo.
In fact better yet, that they just go out and look around them.

moxin

McDook wrote: »

So you rubbish the indo in one breath.
And then claim that their article furthers your argument in the next.

I would recommend people just dont read the indo.
In fact better yet, that they just go out and look around them.

What do you mean "go out and look around them"?

Err, not all postcodes in Dublin have experienced huge rises as some have claimed here. That's my point which has not changed since Day 1 based on the evidence.(PPR mostly)

McDook

moxin wrote: »

What do you mean "go out and look around them"?

Err, not all postcodes in Dublin have experienced huge rises as some have claimed here. That's my point which has not changed since Day 1 based on the evidence.(PPR mostly)

Id say Darndale probably isnt having much going on with price rises.
Anywhere else in Dublin? Care to name them, so as we can see if they are places that any sane person is even interested in living in.

moxin

McDook wrote: »

Id say Darndale probably isnt having much going on with price rises.
Anywhere else in Dublin? Care to name them, so as we can see if they are places that any sane person is even interested in living in.

How come the bulls on this forum always mention the so called less salubrious areas to further their points?

As a northsider, I've watched the PPR and prices achieved for a number of areas. I have not watched Darndale as that area was not on the radar and I feel you brought up Darndale as a desperate measure.

As said in another thread to another bull, from Leixlip in Kildare thru to Lucan up in a circle to Blanchardstown(inc. Clonee) thru the nicer parts of Finglas onto Glasnevin, then onto Santry heading across to Coolock towards the Eastern coastline incl Malahide Rd\Artane, there has been no major price rises happening in the majority of that geographical area. You can include Swords in that. Most areas in that geographic have seen either declines or stabilisation. And yes sane people do live there.

The total opposite maybe happening in SCD\affluent parts of D4\D6. Get out and have a look around outside the southside(SCD) bubble. My point reinforced, each area in Dublin has its own market, each area has seen declines, stabilisations and rises like our beloved D14. Time you accept that.

The_Conductor

McDook wrote: »

Id say Darndale probably isnt having much going on with price rises.
Anywhere else in Dublin? Care to name them, so as we can see if they are places that any sane person is even interested in living in.

Much of West Dublin- where supply is not in constraint- also isn't seeing the price rises that are being mentioned. Look at the greater Tallaght/Clondalkin/Lucan/Blanchardstown area- there may have been some increases, but if/where there have been, they have been modest at best.

McDook

moxin wrote: »

How come the bulls on this forum always mention the so called less salubrious areas to further their points?

As a northsider, I've watched the PPR and prices achieved for a number of areas. I have not watched Darndale as that area was not on the radar and I feel you brought up Darndale as a desperate measure.

As said in another thread to another bull, from Leixlip in Kildare thru to Lucan up in a circle to Blanchardstown(inc. Clonee) thru the nicer parts of Finglas onto Glasnevin, then onto Santry heading across to Coolock towards the Eastern coastline incl Malahide Rd\Artane, there has been no major price rises happening in the majority of that geographical area. You can include Swords in that. Most areas in that geographic have seen either declines or stabilisation. And yes sane people do live there.

The total opposite maybe happening in SCD\affluent parts of D4\D6. Get out and have a look around outside the southside(SCD) bubble. My point reinforced, each area in Dublin has its own market, each area has seen declines, stabilisations and rises like our beloved D14. Time you accept that.

Im jsut surprised that in the same post you complain about the indo and also say that the indo backs up your assertion.

Then you answer me without addressing the point that you you are happy to use the indo when it suits your position but its a rag when it doesnt. But instead you point out that not all of Dublin has had price rises.

So I gave you Darndale as a place which i am positive is the type of place which hasnt had a price rise, so you may be right about there alright, but can you tell us the places YOU are talking about so we can see if they are actually places people would like to live or avoid anyway.

Then you answer again with a list of areas, but NOTHING to back it up?
Can you post us some proof if that position for the areas you mentioned above. Or are you just going go on and on and wear people out with your continuous claims that only south Dublin is experiencing price rises.

I was actually looking very recently in some of the places you mention above that you have proof of there being no price rises. Id like to see your proof that all of these places are not experiencing significant price rises now.

But Im guessing we are to be treated by more pointless posts from you. Someone accused you of torturing the data to confess in another thread. I thought that summed you up perfectly. Still laughing at that one.

So come on now. Share your "proof" of there being no price rises in the places YOU pointed out.

moxin wrote: »

I've watched the PPR and prices achieved for a number of areas. I have not watched Darndale as that area was not on the radar and I feel you brought up Darndale as a desperate measure.

As said in another thread to another bull, from Leixlip in Kildare thru to Lucan up in a circle to Blanchardstown(inc. Clonee) thru the nicer parts of Finglas onto Glasnevin, then onto Santry heading across to Coolock towards the Eastern coastline incl Malahide Rd\Artane, there has been no major price rises happening in the majority of that geographical area. You can include Swords in that. Most areas in that geographic have seen either declines or stabilisation.

leinsterdude

Can not wait until prices rise at a normal rate, then be able to sell and move as we all should be, it makes sense that a house can be sold ten years after purchasing and it is worth a few quid more.....no boom just normal movement upwards.

Bob24

leinsterdude wrote: »

Can not wait until prices rise at a normal rate, then be able to sell and move as we all should be, it makes sense that a house can be sold ten years after purchasing and it is worth a few quid more.....no boom just normal movement upwards.

It depends on when you bought, but for someone who purchased at the highest of the bubble I am not sure they can expect to recover all their losses after 10 years.

Looking at the US bubble, 5 years down the road it is not looking like prices will be back in another 5 unless there is another bubble: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/us-house-prices

(And with the difficult to repossess and recover their losses for banks here compared to the US, cost of credit for new buyers will be much higher here for a while whereas my understanding is that for the better or the worse the situation has been dealt with more aggressively there)

relax carry on

leinsterdude wrote: »

Can not wait until prices rise at a normal rate, then be able to sell and move as we all should be, it makes sense that a house can be sold ten years after purchasing and it is worth a few quid more.....no boom just normal movement upwards.

So a normal market is where houses just keep rising? No depreciation whatsoever? Factors like oversupply, changes to the economic fortunes of an area, availability of buyers, taxes etc, play no part in determining what price a house will be sold for/worth?

Don't know how to do the spoiler effect but "warning your house may rise and fall in value over the term of your ownership"

Villa05

cookie1977 wrote: »

This is interesting:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0124/500055-insolvency-mortgage/

They don't say what the actual deal was but it covered 600,000 debt across a BTL and a PDH.

My first reaction was: Surely this is not the average person in arrears with debt of well over 1/2 a million euros. The scary thing is, it probably is the average person. It puts the scale of the problem into perspective

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

My first reaction was: Surely this is not the average person in arrears with debt of well over 1/2 a million euros. The scary thing is, it probably is the average person. It puts the scale of the problem into perspective

Well- just how likely is the average person to have 2 buy-to-let properties, secured debt of 600k and unsecured debt of another 180k?

Regardless of how stupid we all were for 14 years- this is not a normal, average, situation.........

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote: »

Well- just how likely is the average person to have 2 buy-to-let properties, secured debt of 600k and unsecured debt of another 180k?

Regardless of how stupid we all were for 14 years- this is not a normal, average, situation.........

Unsecured of 160k mostly written off, allowed to keep the BTL's for now as they are providing an income that is paying for their PDH, I presume. Allowed to pay "what they can afford" on the BTL's mortgages

It is expected that in most PIAs, mortgage debts will be written down, with much of the negative equity written off.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/family-with-600000-debt-first-to-get-writeoff-deal-29949084.html

If Master-card did Insolvency deals....................