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Left Ireland for Australia, left keys in door

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    #272
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    no they wouldn't but it's the second part that can be difficult to do. Again if an independent body assessed MARP arrangements rather than the banks the data would probably be easier to extract and it might give us a clearer picture of those in arrears and why. There's a huge amount of valuable data in the standard financial statement that would help us plan for the future and also remove so much speculation about those in arrears

    My tinfoil hat tells me that the lack of clarity is valued by those who want to kick the can down the road indefinitely.


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    #273
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    by the seaside wrote: »
    My tinfoil hat tells me that the lack of clarity is valued by those who want to kick the can down the road indefinitely.

    sigh...i agree. And kicking that can has got use where? :(


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    #274
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    sigh...i agree. And kicking that can has got use where? :(

    It keeps the can kickers in charge with their heads above water.


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    #275
    The Spider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    D3PO wrote: »
    .

    You messed up now you pay the price sorry. That price is you lose your assets and you pay your debts, or a portion of them based on whatever deal you can do with your creditors. Its not ok to think you can keep your assets by getting a handout coz it wasn't all your mistake :rolleyes:

    Nah if I was them I'd wait for the inevitable writedown, it's gonna happen, so time to pucker up and accept it.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/aib-to-consider-writing-off-debt-29159902.html


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    #276
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    Taking your figures at face value as I dont have any links for them, if 75% were not FTB's then they could also include people renovating too. The stats do not pan out though that the majority of those in arrears are BTL buyers which is what some have suggested.
    First-time buyers increase share of mortgage market to 23.3%
    That was a "record high" so it was lower back in 2006.
    And yes, the 75% would include renovations too but that could well be under "equity release" too.
    If somebody remortgages their PPR to buy a BTL then one loan is a PPR and the other is BTL. There's only one mortgage per property.

    In theory yes but in practice, there's a lot of PPR mortgages that are actually BTL. I should know, I'm one of them.

    I'll dig out the 60% BTL figure later.


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    #277
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    The Spider wrote: »
    Nah if I was them I'd wait for the inevitable writedown, it's gonna happen, so time to pucker up and accept it.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/aib-to-consider-writing-off-debt-29159902.html

    Wishful thinking by the vested interests, we'll see :)


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    #278
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    gaius c wrote: »
    First-time buyers increase share of mortgage market to 23.3%
    That was a "record high" so it was lower back in 2006.
    And yes, the 75% would include renovations too but that could well be under "equity release" too.


    In theory yes but in practice, there's a lot of PPR mortgages that are actually BTL. I should know, I'm one of them.

    I'll dig out the 60% BTL figure later.

    I'm not quite following you on the BTL/PPR thing. Is it that you only have one mortgage on the two properties in that you remortgaged ppr to buy a second property?


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    #279
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    The Spider wrote: »
    Nah if I was them I'd wait for the inevitable writedown, it's gonna happen, so time to pucker up and accept it.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/aib-to-consider-writing-off-debt-29159902.html
    To be honest, as a prospective investor with cash, writedowns would be great for me as property prices would go down further again and be stuck in the toilet for another decade if we see widespread debt sharing. The taxpayer will be screwed to the floor to pay for it, and will have less cash to spend on property (and everything else).


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    #280
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    I'm not quite following you on the BTL/PPR thing. Is it that you only have one mortgage on the two properties in that you remortgaged ppr to buy a second property?
    Properties may be bought as PPRs but end up as BTLs.


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    #281
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    lima wrote: »
    Wishful thinking by the vested interests, we'll see :)

    Unfortunately the truth may be that the bank will either:

    a) Get better value on these mortgages by coming to a deal with those who can't pay on current terms than they would through a repo and firesale

    Or

    b) Appear in the short term to get better value from these mortgages, which will assist them in appearing solvent.

    If a), it's going to be a long old haul. If b), then it may all come to a head when the banking solvency crisis turns into a banking liquidity crisis, which may (I hear anecdotally) be behind fire sales in Spain.


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    #282
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    Anynama141 wrote: »
    Properties may be bought as PPRs but end up as BTLs.

    If you live in the house you own and it's mortgaged it's a PPR. If you dont live in the house and you rent it's a BTL. The local property tax will also confirm this too.


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    #283
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Depends on the person. My own is a former PPR that's now a BTL that I haven't quite got around to talking to the bank about (fully paid-up before anybody casts aspirations). If that was to go into arrears, it would be classed as PPR arrears instead of the BTL that it is.

    Bloke at work has an extensive portfolio that's all under one mortgage at a PPR rate as he just re-mortgaged every time to buy a new BTL. He did this to avail of the cheaper PPR rate and the bank turned a blind eye as they didn't want him going to another bank who would have turned a blind eye themselves.

    I can guarantee you that a significant proportion of PPR arrears have some element of BTL involved.


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    #284
    D3PO
    Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭D3PO


    The Spider wrote: »
    Nah if I was them I'd wait for the inevitable writedown, it's gonna happen, so time to pucker up and accept it.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/aib-to-consider-writing-off-debt-29159902.html

    If you think "mortgage debt write-downs" in this article means keep your house and get a reduced mortgage to pay your more naive than I thought you were.


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    #285
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    If you live in the house you own and it's mortgaged it's a PPR. If you dont live in the house and you rent it's a BTL. The local property tax will also confirm this too.
    People bought houses/apartments as PPRs, then married/moved and bought other properties - also as PPRs - without selling the original properties. This happened frequently during the bubble. Many young(ish) couples ended up with mini property empires of 3 properties. All were bought on PPR mortgages. But two are let out as BTLs, still under the favourable mortgage terms of PPRs. Of course, they haven't necessarily informed their banks (as they are usually required to do) that they are no longer living in the property.

    The property tax is to be paid by the property owner, so I'm not sure where that connects to whether it is owned as a PPR or BTL.


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    #286
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    gaius c wrote: »
    Depends on the person. My own is a former PPR that's now a BTL that I haven't quite got around to talking to the bank about (fully paid-up before anybody casts aspirations). If that was to go into arrears, it would be classed as PPR arrears instead of the BTL that it is.

    Bloke at work has an extensive portfolio that's all under one mortgage at a PPR rate as he just re-mortgaged every time to buy a new BTL. He did this to avail of the cheaper PPR rate and the bank turned a blind eye as they didn't want him going to another bank who would have turned a blind eye themselves.

    I can guarantee you that a significant proportion of PPR arrears have some element of BTL involved.

    It's only a PPR if you reside there. If it went into arrears the bank would quickly know if you resided there.

    Is it significant or small I dont understand? I doubt you're correct on your assumption either way but without indepth analysis of MARP agreements we may never know.


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    #287
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    Anynama141 wrote: »
    People bought houses/apartments as PPRs, then married/moved and bought other properties - also as PPRs - without selling the original properties. This happened frequently during the bubble. Many young(ish) couples ended up with mini property empires of 3 properties. All were bought on PPR mortgages. But two are let out as BTLs, still under the favourable mortgage terms of PPRs. Of course, they haven't necessarily informed their banks (as they are usually required to do) that they are no longer living in the property.

    The property tax is to be paid by the property owner, so I'm not sure where that connects to whether it is owned as a PPR or BTL.

    Again, if you dont reside in the property it's not a PPR. You only can have one PPR. Whether the bank gave BTL or PPR style mortgages out for the CB there is only one PPR, the one you reside in.


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    #288
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    Again, if you dont reside in the property it's not a PPR. You only can have one PPR. Whether the bank gave BTL or PPR style mortgages out for the CB there is only one PPR, the one you reside in.

    And if people 'forgot' to tell the bank, how is that shown in the stats?


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    #289
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    So you mean people with single properties who moved out to rent and are now renting their old PPR? Then yes there will be some of them but I doubt it's a significant number.


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    #290
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    Again, if you dont reside in the property it's not a PPR. You only can have one PPR. Whether the bank gave BTL or PPR style mortgages out for the CB there is only one PPR, the one you reside in.

    Yes, yes, yes, I know that and it's pretty clear that I know that. I'm explaining the point you wanted clarification on.


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    #291
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    So you mean people with single properties who moved out to rent and are now renting their old PPR? Then yes there will be some of them but I doubt it's a significant number.

    I'm not so sure. One of the results of NE has been an inability to sell. People move in with new partners, move cities for work, move to a bigger place as their family expands, and they let their unsalable house. They just forget to tell the bank sometimes.


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    #292
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    by the seaside wrote: »
    I'm not so sure. One of the results of NE has been an inability to sell. People move in with new partners, move cities for work, move to a bigger place as their family expands, and they let their unsalable house. They just forget to tell the bank sometimes.
    They 'forget' because BTL mortgages usually have much higher interest rates.


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    #293
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    by the seaside wrote: »
    I'm not so sure. One of the results of NE has been an inability to sell. People move in with new partners, move cities for work, move to a bigger place as their family expands, and they let their unsalable house. They just forget to tell the bank sometimes.

    If we say that there is a population of people out there with a single property who are in arrears of up to 90 days or more, then there is a sub population of that group who are renting out there PPR while they rent another property then there is another sub group of that group who did not inform their bank that they were doing that.

    In the above instance I would say it is a very small part of the overall PPR arrears.


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    #294
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    Anynama141 wrote: »
    They 'forget' because BTL mortgages usually have much higher interest rates.

    Yes, that can make one forgetful.


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    #295
    The Spider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    D3PO wrote: »
    If you think "mortgage debt write-downs" in this article means keep your house and get a reduced mortgage to pay your more naive than I thought you were.


    Repossessions as a last resort

    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0313/376503-new-measures-on-arrears-to-include-write-downs/

    "Significantly, as part of the new targets for banks, regulators are openly asking lenders to include debt forgiveness if it is appropriate.
    In the Central Bank's definition of a sustainable solution, it includes repayment of "a revised principal sum" - in other words some of the debt being written down if the bank offers a deal to a customer."


    Going to be a lot of it under the table and it'll be drip fed out to the public until it's pallatable.


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    #296
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    If we say that there is a population of people out there with a single property who are in arrears of up to 90 days or more, then there is a sub population of that group who are renting out there PPR while they rent another property then there is another sub group of that group who did not inform their bank that they were doing that.

    In the above instance I would say it is a very small part of the overall PPR arrears.

    Except these factors are not independent. NE is a significant factor both in being in arrears and in letting a PPR mortgaged property.

    Of course, we're speculating so who knows who's right. But it might be more than you think.


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    #297
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    If we say that there is a population of people out there with a single property who are in arrears of up to 90 days or more, then there is a sub population of that group who are renting out there PPR while they rent another property then there is another sub group of that group who did not inform their bank that they were doing that.

    In the above instance I would say it is a very small part of the overall PPR arrears.
    How small is 'very' small? 10% would be 10,000 properties. Doesn't sound unreasonable at all to me. Could easily be twice that, or half.


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    #298
    cookie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    It's just speculation. We don't know. But taking your figure, that to me is not significant.


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    #299
    by the seaside
    Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭by the seaside


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    It's just speculation. We don't know. But taking your figure, that to me is not significant.

    That's no fun at all.

    Perhaps there is an avalanche waiting to happen of under-performing let out without the bank knowing PPR mortgages.


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    #300
    Anynama141
    Closed Accounts Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Anynama141


    cookie1977 wrote: »
    It's just speculation. We don't know. But taking your figure, that to me is not significant.
    There are about 30,000 properties for sale in Ireland. If only 10% of 'PPRs' in arrears turn out to be BTLs, then that's a 33% increase in supply.

    Increase the supply of anything by 33% and it is quite significant.


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    #301
    D3PO
    Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭D3PO


    The Spider wrote: »
    Repossessions as a last resort

    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0313/376503-new-measures-on-arrears-to-include-write-downs/

    "Significantly, as part of the new targets for banks, regulators are openly asking lenders to include debt forgiveness if it is appropriate.
    In the Central Bank's definition of a sustainable solution, it includes repayment of "a revised principal sum" - in other words some of the debt being written down if the bank offers a deal to a customer."


    Going to be a lot of it under the table and it'll be drip fed out to the public until it's pallatable.

    no they are talking about split mortgages et all. They are nto referring to jonny getting a reduction from 200k to 100k on his mortgage so that it becomes sustainable.

    Your so desperate for writedowns that you cant even see past the newspaper spin.


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