Where's My @@@@@@@ Snow, Moan Thread.

Redsunset

All moaning about waiting and no snow in your back yard in here please.

ravydavygravy

Nice idea!!

Worst. Snowpocalypse. Ever.

leahyl

Where' my snow? :-( I haven't even looked out the window but I know it's not there!

dave1982

reports thats its snowing Youghal and ballycottonon 96fms facebook page

I've nothing in Cobh not even ice

snowstorm445

Ugh.

Very light dusting in sth Wexford.

Its snow but at a disappointing level

Devi

Not a flake here in Newbridge, kildare. Streamers are totally missing us by the look of it.

redsky7

no snow currently in any of the 3 places i am going to be today! and i warned everyone about the snow so now i look like an eejit (again). beginning to think i'll never see legit snow again.
</rant>

fr wishy washy

And everyone else by the sounds of it

Knine

Devi wrote: »

Not a flake here in Newbridge, kildare. Streamers are totally missing us by the look of it.

Ban me if you like but its very heavy in D15

Devi

Knine wrote: »

Ban me if you like but its very heavy in D15

Dam and I used to live in d15, why did move nooo!

dopolahpec

This was always going to disappoint a lot of people if they went by MTs forecast which mentioned 10-15cm at low levels, 15-30 at some levels and 5-10cm (I think) widely. It's only a 24 - 36 hour event. If streamers were setting up for a few days we may see those totals but as it is I doubt anywhere will get 10cm. These streamers are anorexic at the moment. Contrast them to what is barrelling into south east England for instance.

Bejubby

Not even a flake south wexford

ltdslipdiff

Mickger and Trotter will confirm too I'm sure....not a single flake in Waterford !!!!

Spindle

SNOW in Cork!!!!

Ohh wait just dandruff........

Rebelbrowser

dopolahpec wrote: »

This was always going to disappoint a lot of people if they went by MTs forecast which mentioned 10-15cm at low levels, 15-30 at some levels and 5-10cm (I think) widely. It's only a 24 - 36 hour event. If streamers were setting up for a few days we may see those totals but as it is I doubt anywhere will get 10cm. These streamers are anorexic at the moment. Contrast them to what is barrelling into south east England for instance.

Im in SE England at the mo. pretty anaemic here too.

Tabnabs

Lots of graupel and ominous looking clouds over the Dublin mountains, but a small few streaks way up on Kippure is all we get. :mad:

NoodleMc

Woke up to a total whiteout!!!!



Then realised it was just the condensation on the window! ......... sigh.....

Wine Goddess

Light dusting here in Tallaght/Firhouse.

had a brief shower of washing powder about 1015 for 20 mins or so then back to bitterly cold winds.


Sigh. Sooooo disappointed - am hoping for a bit more during today before the wind direction scuppers everything when it moves NNE.

dopolahpec

Tired of what's on offer by now. Wish it would pee off and let us see the spring. Thing is half measures don't cut it and what's being thrown up by the irish sea are definitely half measures. And the shower train is weakening. What would have been phenomenal synoptic in January have proven to be a damp squib in march. Actual -12 uppers flooding across the irish sea. You see the chart and you think 'snowed in for sure'. But it's the other particulars. Sun strong. Sea too cold. Wind too strong. Pressure rising. Isle of Man shadow etc. The closest call was the January non event. I remember it raining for hours on end just the wrong side of marginal. We were literally teetering on the edge of a memorable snow event.

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

Tired of what's on offer by now. Wish it would pee off and let us see the spring. Thing is half measures don't cut it and what's being thrown up by the irish sea are definitely half measures. And the shower train is weakening. What would have been phenomenal synoptic in January have proven to be a damp squib in march. Actual -12 uppers flooding across the irish sea. You see the chart and you think 'snowed in for sure'. But it's the other particulars. Sun strong. Sea too cold. Wind too strong. Pressure rising. Isle of Man shadow etc. The closest call was the January non event. I remember it raining for hours on end just the wrong side of marginal. We were literally teetering on the edge of a memorable snow event.

I've been saying for the past few days that the models just didn't support anything other than a dusting up to a few cm.

It's hard to get a message like that across though when expectations have been raised on here so high.

Thats all I'm going to say on the matter.

amadangomor

maquiladora wrote: »

I've been saying for the past few days that the models just didn't support anything other than a dusting up to a few cm.

It's hard to get a message like that across though when expectations have been raised on here so high.

Thats all I'm going to say on the matter.

Ah sure it's just people having the craic ramping a bit,no harm in wishing for something

lucernarian

amadangomor wrote: »

Ah sure it's just people having the craic ramping a bit,no harm in wishing for something

There is when people are dragging up snow risk charts as if they mean anything, passing it off as some kind of science. Some of the "snow prediction" graphs are little more than gimmicks!

And people make serious decisions on the back of what's talked about here. I think it's great when we can have the craic and post jokes or memes or what have you but that's totally different to people talking out of their ass!

Irish Steve

There is indeed a serious aspect to the whole ramping scenario. To amateur forecasters and people who love snow, then a ramp is a bit of fun, but the met services are not there for the amusement of amateurs, or a bit of fun, there are significant and serious economic factors related to weather, and getting it wrong can be life threatening in a number of areas.

A light aircraft planning a long trip needs to have a high certainty factor to the forecast that it gets, even something as supposedly minor as the wrong wind strength on a long flight can and does mean the difference between arriving safely and being forced to make an emergency landing or worse due to having insufficient fuel for the trip, or equally dangerous, arriving over the destination airport to find that it's closed because of bad weather. A diversion to an alternative airport may not be possible at that stage, depending on how far away it is.

Small boats have the same issue, and even larger boats, like ferries, can be cancelled due to adverse weather, which has knock on consequences for all concerned. Same is true for rail, and road, if the forecast is badly wrong, roads are not gritted, or tracks are not cleared, or equally as bad, they are gritted when they didn't need to be, at significant cost. Utility services like Electricity need to know about potential surge demands, so they can make sure that enough back up is available to meet the demand, electricity can't be stored as such, so if demand goes up, that demand has to be met.

So, while they get stick from well meaning amateurs, organisations like ME are under a massive obligation to only call it as they see it, and that can and does mean that there will be times when they will not call a set of weather parameters until they have a much higher level of confidence about the validity of that call, as expensive decisions may have to be taken as a result. If they call it wrong, that can be equally bad, not forecasting snow is as bad as forecasting too much, in that either scenario can result in expensive consequences.

Snow is one of the most difficult weather items to accurately forecast, as it's dependent on so many variables in a very narrow range of parameters, and if only one of them changes even slightly, the effect can be dramatic. We've seen it locally, the Isle of Man shadow only has to move a few miles because of a slight change in wind direction, and instead of Dublin airport being hammered, it's Howth Head that gets a plastering. That's not much distance in the scale of things, but for Dublin Airport Authority, it's a nightmare, having staff in to clear snow is expensive, and equally, not having them in when they are needed can be equally costly, for the airport and the airlines.

That's why ME don't call it until they can stand over what they call, and even then, it can and does change. When they do get it wrong, it can be expensive, for a lot of people and organisations, and that's the pressure of the job they do.

amadangomor

Irish Steve wrote: »

There is indeed a serious aspect to the whole ramping scenario. To amateur forecasters and people who love snow, then a ramp is a bit of fun, but the met services are not there for the amusement of amateurs, or a bit of fun, there are significant and serious economic factors related to weather, and getting it wrong can be life threatening in a number of areas.

A light aircraft planning a long trip needs to have a high certainty factor to the forecast that it gets, even something as supposedly minor as the wrong wind strength on a long flight can and does mean the difference between arriving safely and being forced to make an emergency landing or worse due to having insufficient fuel for the trip, or equally dangerous, arriving over the destination airport to find that it's closed because of bad weather. A diversion to an alternative airport may not be possible at that stage, depending on how far away it is.

Small boats have the same issue, and even larger boats, like ferries, can be cancelled due to adverse weather, which has knock on consequences for all concerned. Same is true for rail, and road, if the forecast is badly wrong, roads are not gritted, or tracks are not cleared, or equally as bad, they are gritted when they didn't need to be, at significant cost. Utility services like Electricity need to know about potential surge demands, so they can make sure that enough back up is available to meet the demand, electricity can't be stored as such, so if demand goes up, that demand has to be met.

So, while they get stick from well meaning amateurs, organisations like ME are under a massive obligation to only call it as they see it, and that can and does mean that there will be times when they will not call a set of weather parameters until they have a much higher level of confidence about the validity of that call, as expensive decisions may have to be taken as a result. If they call it wrong, that can be equally bad, not forecasting snow is as bad as forecasting too much, in that either scenario can result in expensive consequences.

Snow is one of the most difficult weather items to accurately forecast, as it's dependent on so many variables in a very narrow range of parameters, and if only one of them changes even slightly, the effect can be dramatic. We've seen it locally, the Isle of Man shadow only has to move a few miles because of a slight change in wind direction, and instead of Dublin airport being hammered, it's Howth Head that gets a plastering. That's not much distance in the scale of things, but for Dublin Airport Authority, it's a nightmare, having staff in to clear snow is expensive, and equally, not having them in when they are needed can be equally costly, for the airport and the airlines.

That's why ME don't call it until they can stand over what they call, and even then, it can and does change. When they do get it wrong, it can be expensive, for a lot of people and organisations, and that's the pressure of the job they do.

You are talking about weather forecasting,it is obvious to most what the consequences are for for that being wrong,guess you spelled it out for anyone who doesn't?

I'm talking about people on an internet forum discussing the possiblity of snow and being optimistic about that and some even going so far to post charts that show the potential.Don't know how you connected the two?Would anyone use a ramping thread/post to base serious weather affected decisions,hmm,I doubt it!The internet has been around long enough by now for anyone with an ounce of common sense to know what is to be taken seriously and what is not.

Oneiric 3

amadangomor wrote: »

You are talking about weather forecasting,it is obvious to most what the consequences are for for that being wrong,guess you spelled it out for anyone who doesn't?

I'm talking about people on an internet forum discussing the possiblity of snow and being optimistic about that and some even going so far to post charts that show the potential.

As most did, but in fairness there was a lot of incriminating posts towards the national met service as well on here for not ramping this up which I think Irish Steve is alluding too. No harm at all in posting snow charts and wishcasting etc but it becomes a cause for concern when these are accompanied by negative comments towards professionals who know what they are talking about.

amadangomor

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As most did, but in fairness there was a lot of incriminating posts towards the national met service as well on here for not ramping this up which I think Irish Steve is alluding too. No harm at all in posting snow charts and wishcasting etc but it becomes a cause for concern when these are accompanied by negative comments towards professionals who know what they are talking about.

Fair enough with that aspect of it,don't get why anyone would be critisised like that for doing their job

Irish Steve

Maybe, maybe not, I do know that there were close on 1000 people in here at a very late hour, which is more than a passing interest in what's happening to the weather, and the good thing about the internet is that it's much more real time, a weather forecast is prepared and given at a specific time, whereas the internet can and does react to small but sometime significant changes in what's happening on a nowcast basis.

The older ones here will all remember Michael Fish's Hurricane that wasn't, probably one of the most significant misses in a long time, and unlikely to happen again any time soon.

People certainly make decisions based on information here rather than on other sources, sometimes because the information IS available here, and either not available, or out of date, or hard to get, or even expensive, from other sources, regardless of the accuracy or otherwise of the alternative sources.

The ramping thread got closed a few days ago, so any ramping had to go somewhere, and the prime thread for that this time round seems to have been the thread for "chat" about the risk of precipitation over the period. That may not have been the ideal place for ramping, but hey, in the absence of a dedicated ramp thread, and the absence of any moderator saying don't ramp here, I don't have a problem with it, in as much as I don't have a problem with some of the wilder suggestions about what may or may not be about to happen, which is where the connection comes from.

And yes, there are times when ME, and other professional organisations do get it wrong, it's happened to me on occasions and I've not been able to get to where I was planning because the weather at that place wasn't conducive to safely continuing the trip, and that may have been flying, or driving, I've had both. The difference is that if flying, you can't just slow down and park up in a safe place like you can when driving, so the stakes are a LOT higher.

Some of the "ramping", depending on the source, can be very convincing, and even accurate, that's the joy and pain of it, weather forecasting even now with super computers and all the other technology is still far from being a precise science, we've seen that demonstrated so clearly over the last 24 hours, what might have happened, what actually happened and what will happen in the coming hours are still very uncertain, the only thing we know is the end result at the end of each recording period, which tells the exact tale for history.

Not all the people coming on to boards are going to recognise the difference between the nowcasts, or ME forecasts and the amateur, and there will be times when the amateur forecast may well be more accurate than the ME forecast, or it can be completely off the wall, but knowing which to believe is not always easy. That's why MTC's forecasts come with a "legal" health warning, while he does the best he can based on all available inputs, he can be wrong, as can any other forecaster, and to protect all involved, and to remind people that NO forecaster is perfect, there now has to be a clear warning that the forecast is exactly that, a forecast, not a graven in stone perfect prediction.

That's why so many people are haunting the place right now, to get the flavour, excitement and frustration of what's happening now, and an Internet resource is about the only place that is possible. As long as people recognise that the information here is not guaranteed, then it's OK, but if they take it as infallible, that can become dangerous, either way.

We do NOT need someone being hurt or injured because they went hill walking in inappropriate conditions, or went "exploring" conditions in a 4 x 4, and found out the hard way that the conditions were not what they were expecting.

Underestimation or overstating what may happen, either of them can be dangerous, and people with no experience of weather can be confused by some of the terms and buzz words that are part of met, in the same way as they can be with computing, or almost any other technical area, so there is, like it or not, a requirement on all of us to make sure that we don't, even in jest, put someone at risk.

Sorry if that seems a little harsh, but it is the nature of the world we are living in now.

Blizzard 2010

We just after having a decent snow shower which gave us a dusting soon to melt away