Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

downwiththatsor

howlinwolf wrote: »

do we know how high the risk of flooding is for different parts of the country....what mm prec are we looking at over the next 48hrs

This is precipitation totals, use next button on bottom left hand side.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsopuktotprecip.php

NAE 48hr here, looks like East, South East to get the highest totals

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Red Pepper

Weathercheck wrote: »

More ridiculous charts tonight. ECM is just incredible. Deep cold embedded over Ireland.

Can you send me a link to view these ECMs?

Harry Deerpark

Red Pepper wrote: »

Can you send me a link to view these ECMs?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

dopolahpec

Having a wee look at the netweather.tv forums there across the water. Beginning to get fractious with the usual IMBY stuff about where the snowline will be. North of England looks in line for ridiculous amounts of snow but I can't see it all accumulating. I believe in many places it will melt as fast as it sticks, it is going to be proper messy, disappointing a lot of people who are picturing something a lot cleaner than what will actually transpire. Mud, slush, wind, landslides, floods....snow melt everywhere. Narnia? I think not.

3ndahalfof6

dopolahpec wrote: »

Having a wee look at the netweather.tv forums there across the water. Beginning to get fractious with the usual IMBY stuff about where the snowline will be. North of England looks in line for ridiculous amounts of snow but I can't see it all accumulating. I believe in many places it will melt as fast as it sticks, it is going to be proper messy, disappointing a lot of people who are picturing something a lot cleaner than what will actually transpire. Mud, slush, wind, landslides, floods....snow melt everywhere. Narnia? I think not.

This reads well, the only thing that will change it is low temps and that is possible.

Red Pepper

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

Merci!

ninebeanrows

Southern and Eastern areas set for serious amounts of prectation with flooding likely in places, a brutal period of weather in driving easterly winds/gales.

Potential for severe snowfall over parts of NI with blizzards.

Rock Lesnar

:eek: i hope we dont get them rain totals in the above chart.

pad199207

in SE winds like forecast, rainfall totals on those maps can be halved or more in places like Carlow and Kildare Counties! South Dublin County usually gets drowned in these situations !

JanuarySnowstor

I find the gfs ppn charts to be very accurate and they are not showing anything too excessive. In fact the rain band seems to move North quite quickly
I think the NAE has lost the plot this season

Weathering

Quote from Net weather forum Posted 15 minutes ago
The latest 18z NAE has resorted back similar to the 0z Run, it has got rid of all the northerly progress seen in the 6z and 12z.

'Forecaster's nightmare'

patneve2

the cold spell is still on brief but heavy hail shower here

Rock Lesnar

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I find the gfs ppn charts to be very accurate and they are not showing anything too excessive. In fact the rain band seems to move North quite quickly
I think the NAE has lost the plot this season

I hope your right.

JanuarySnowstor

18z bringing back in the colder air a tad faster on Sunday
Could be a good run coming up!

Gonzo

for some reason i get the feeling that the charts is overplaying the snowrisk for Northern Ireland and perhaps some central and south-eastern parts of the Uk, I think mainly the mountains, north of england and most of Scotland will get lying snow. Should be a crazy amount of snow in wicklow mountains as well.

howlinwolf

i feel once this somewhat milder air pushes in tomorrow we..as in ireland wont see the freezing cold establish itself over us again,cold maybe but not the freezing cold,the uk on the other hand could be in the freezer.

compsys

DOCARCH wrote: »

One thing to bear in mind is that, statistically*, we get more white Easters than white Christmases, so cold and snow at this time of the year is not something phenomenal.

* I don't think I made that up, but that's what I have been led to believe in the past! :P

Yes, this is absolutely true.

When talking about whether it will snow many people get obsessed with 'seasons' and months and think certain weather situations can only happen during certain months.

It's always good to stick with the facts and statistics though.

The average temperature around Xmas is 8 degrees (in Dublin at least). The average temperature come mid-March (when Easter often falls) is 10 degrees. Hardly much of a difference. So whether you call March winter, spring, or whatever other name you want to give it, snow is certainly feasible during the month.

However, the Irish sea is slightly colder in March than it is in December so you could argue that this balances out the slightly higher temperatures in March and makes snow during the month just as likely, if not more likely, than December.

ninebeanrows

howlinwolf wrote: »

i feel once this somewhat milder air pushes in tomorrow we..as in ireland wont see the freezing cold establish itself over us again,cold maybe but not the freezing cold,the uk on the other hand could be in the freezer.

Have you cared to look at the charts or are you just posting something you made up in your head with no data to back it up?

JanuarySnowstor

Well a very cold 18z run for next week, though also quite dry
Worth mentioning too that even with -10uppers we still get temps of 4-5C countrywide
So whilst the uppers are exceptional for late March the actual weather experienced for ordinary joe soap may not be exceptional other than a cold day

JanuarySnowstor

Heights are starting to wane to our North from Wednesday on
It's a trend that the ECM has also, so while next week looks very cold throughout signs of a pattern change in time for easter

BLIZZARD7

Moderate hail/rain here at the moment. (D14)



Dan

Weathering

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Heights are starting to wane to our North from Wednesday on
It's a trend that the ECM has also, so while next week looks very cold throughout signs of a pattern change in time for easter

7days away yet. FI in my opinion when we can't even nail the Northern extent of this low in T24-36 hours

howlinwolf

Weathercheck wrote: »

Have you cared to look at the charts or are you just posting something you made up in your head with no data to back it up?

i have checked the charts and as i said i think it will be cold but not freezing cold as in hovering around 0c ... certainly some cold nights but between 4 and 6/7c during the day......maybe im wrong but i dont find 4 to 7 incredibly cold?

Iancar29

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvCI-gNK_y4

tylercollins

Northern Ireland Weather just posted this on their facebook page..

Just to Alert you all. That it is highly likely we will be upgrading our Warning tomorrow to AMBER and perhaps RED for some areas, as we could be in for a major snow event. Latest weather forecasting models indicate high amounts of snow possible for Northern Ireland. You are advised to keep frequently updated with weather forecasts and warnings. We will issue an update tomorrow morning.

pauldry

IMO I think the extreme NE of NI and mountains will only get snow

Sleet for N Leinster and Ulster for a time

Temperatures 8 or 9 Munster

5 Leinster

6 or 7 Connacht

4 to 6 Ulster

except 2 to 3 NE Ulster

Wet and windy for most and then slightly colder next week

Nothing too serious considering the thunderstorms we will get in Summer

ninebeanrows

tylercollins wrote: »

Northern Ireland Weather just posted this on their facebook page..

Exciting times for some

tylercollins

Weathercheck wrote: »

Exciting times for some

It will be haha!!

Pangea

Looking at the 200 users online at the moment, that tells me the forecast right away!
Ah I see Met uks forecast warning 3 consecutive days of snow warnings for NI. :eek:
Their warnings are fun to look at if nothing else.

Mint Sauce

Met office currently showing a yellow wanrning for NI for thurs/fri/sat. Yellow banner covers all the boarder areas as well, including the whole of donegal, north sligo, leitrim, and cavan.