Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

Weathering

Why does the thread title state snow possible from saturday when it's clearly possible from tonight onwards in the north?

ninebeanrows

Very strong winds at Dun Laoghaire

Wind Speed: 44.1 kts
Wind Gust: 54.0 kts

JanuarySnowstor

I don't see any snow for Northern Ireland tomorrow going by the gfs
Uppers are way too high!

pad199207

cowana wrote: »

It is amazing that this area in the shadow has not had a drop of rain,
It has been sideways raining,Sleet,snow back to rain most of the day here. Station reading 14mm of rain today so far.

Yeah its quite sureal knowing whats going on around us!

Deank

ZX7R wrote: »

Was out for a walk about 20 minuets ago defiantly sleet in the heaver bursts of perception,could also see it hitting parked cars in the wind.

It seems to have turned to a type of sleet now, nasty evening out there for a walk, you must be some sort of masochist :pac:

admiralofthefleet

pad199207 wrote: »

Pics coming in on Twitter showing flooding in Blackpool Cork

could you post some?

lucernarian

There's low-lying areas in northern Meath but enough populated spots at a bit of altitude and I think there's a couple of posters here from the likes of Oldcastle.

But unless we're very lucky the temperatures in e.g. Dublin Airport will probably reach near 6 degrees at 12pm tomorrow if my reckoning's right. While Dublin probably won't see any heavy snow over this period of weather, if temperatures do start to fall back by lunchtime Friday then it would be a positive sign for more widespread snow of the kind Weathercheck's been talking about in Ulster.

Pangea

Shocking wind here at the moment, actually dangerous to venture out in, went out for a second before quickly heading back in :eek:

acassells80

Weathercheck wrote: »

Very strong winds at Dun Laoghaire

Wind Speed: 44.1 kts
Wind Gust: 54.0 kts

Yes only down the road and the rain is lashing against the windows!

mickger844posts

Wildest night in a long time in Waterford. Constant gusts 70km/h plus and a year high gust of 82km/h recorded at 21.55. As the lads have said a few posts back i have had a few problems with my stations rain gauge today but my back up gauges have given me a total of 40mm since midnight.

lucernarian

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't see any snow for Northern Ireland tomorrow going by the gfs
Uppers are way too high!

Wet snow tonight then lots of sleet then snow by probably 8 or 9pm Friday in higher populated parts of mid-ulster perhaps?

JanuarySnowstor

18z upgrading the cold for next week
Bitterly cold sums it up with -10 uppers and lower at times
Surely must be record territory

whitebriar

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't see any snow for Northern Ireland tomorrow going by the gfs
Uppers are way too high!

The forecasters at the UKMet office disagree with you,who do you think will be right?
They don't like the gfs by the way according to Ian Ferguson, it's not accurate enough.I'd have thought you'd have known that being on NW a lot!

derekon

Looking at the latest ECM, it looks like proper Siberian air will flow down over Ireland from Saturday evening onward and it looks like it will bed in for much of next week.

Would no doubt be epic if we were now in mid January. However, with that very cold weather there does not appear to be much precipitation. So all that cold could go to waste with just the odd snizzle shower? :rolleyes:

D

pad199207

This Rain Shadow over me is really quite something i must say lol, what weather?

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Wet snow tonight then lots of sleet then snow by probably 8 or 9pm Friday in higher populated parts of mid-ulster perhaps?

This is why following GFS can be troublesome in situations like this.

NAE when the 850hPa temperatures are at their HIGHEST in the coming 48hrs.

850hPa temps just need to be 0c or below in these types of set-ups.

whitebriar

Rain total in Arklow now 19 mm
Temp sitting at 4.9

pauldry

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z upgrading the cold for next week
Bitterly cold sums it up with -10 uppers and lower at times
Surely must be record territory

Yes temperatures next week 2 to 5c by day
Minus 4c at night

However April 1922 was as cold and march 1962 was at least as cold as now
1987 was another cold march

So it's a one in 25 year event really

ZX7R

Deank wrote: »

It seems to have turned to a type of sleet now, nasty evening out there for a walk, you must be some sort of masochist :pac:

Just doing a bit of exercise trying to get the weight down:D,I think i would be more of a sadist after the lack of snow this winter:pac:

Speak Now

derekon wrote: »

Would no doubt be epic if we were now in mid January. However, with that very cold weather there does not appear to be much precipitation. So all that cold could go to waste with just the odd snizzle shower? :rolleyes:

D

Like the "dry" easterly we had early last week with 24 hours of frequent snow showers

JanuarySnowstor

whitebriar wrote: »

The forecasters at the UKMet office disagree with you,who do you think will be right?
They don't like the gfs by the way according to Ian Ferguson, it's not accurate enough.I'd have thought you'd have known that being on NW a lot!

Let's wait and see tomorrow night before we start dishing out too many hasty comments
My thoughts are that the North will see almost totally rain tomorrow and tomorrow night

Does look epic next week, from a cold pov

Musicman2000

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Like the "dry" easterly we had early last week with 24 hours of frequent snow showers

And Jerry Waterford should be ready for round 2 next week

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote: »

This is why following GFS can be troublesome in situations like this.

NAE when the 850hPa temperatures are at their HIGHEST in the coming 48hrs.

850hPa temps just need to be 0c or below in these types of set-ups.

I totally agree with you about GFS. I just disagree with your interpretation of the NAE. This is why following 850 hPa temperature charts can be troublesome when predicting snow:D

I would be looking for -2 850 hPa temps, which does make a crucial difference in such marginal situations but it's beside my real point.

We need to use 850-1000 hPa thickness charts. There's been research done on this through the decades. Those forecasts are a better indicator of snowfall or rain.



The 129 dam line has served me best in predicting snow for general low-lying areas more than 10 miles away from windward coasts. In the chart above, no part of Ireland is under the 129 dam contour. I'm altering my own predictions to take into account wind direction and modification more and the higher terrain generally found through west Ulster.

Speak Now

Musicman2000 wrote: »

And Jerry Waterford should be ready for round 2 next week

Bring on those -12 uppers :P

mickger844posts

A year high gust of 84km/h recorded at 22.15 :eek:

aboyro

as mick said really blowing hard here the last few hours, non stop rain most of today:rolleyes:

awaiting cold re-load:D:D

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

The forecasters at the UKMet office disagree with you,who do you think will be right?

Wouldn't be the first time this year they got it wrong!

Supercell

The eastern slopes of the Wicklow mountains must be snow/sleet/rain 'aggeddon!

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I totally agree with you about GFS. I just disagree with your interpretation of the NAE. This is why following 850 hPa temperature charts can be troublesome when predicting snow:D

I would be looking for -2 850 hPa temps, which does make a crucial difference in such marginal situations but it's beside my real point.

We need to use 850-1000 hPa thickness charts. There's been research done on this through the decades. Those forecasts are a better indicator of snowfall or rain.



The 129 dam line has served me best in predicting snow for general low-lying areas more than 10 miles away from windward coasts. In the chart above, no part of Ireland is under the 129 dam contour. I'm altering my own predictions to take into account wind direction and modification more and the higher terrain generally found through west Ulster.

Sorry i disagree, i have studied all the variables and have read about the 850-1000hPa thickness risk %s etc but the situation is completely different in a frontal zone.

The dew-point, 0c 850hPa isotherm are crucial as of course is distance from windward coasts.

solas111

tomcosgrave wrote: »

\Was canvassing for the by-election in Meath today and could barely feel my face afterwards.
I've been active in politics for a decade and I have done a lot of canvassing over that time, but I have never been as a chilled to the bone as I was today.

Ummm, the Gods are telling you something.