Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

lucernarian

Deank wrote: »

Are they streamers building off the S/E coast? :eek:

Not even remotely. They are just plain old fashioned troughs embedded around the circulation of an Atlantic LP, pretty conventional stuff.

Streamers are a very specific thing, the conditions around this part of the world won't allow for streamers until later into Sunday after the front has fizzled out.

Deank

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Situation subject to revision if ECM shows a different evolution ...

Fronts are now starting to edge back south and snow area in east Ulster should slowly expand both west and south to cover parts of north Leinster and inland Connacht (and all of Ulster) overnight through Saturday morning. I expect the snow line to be about Drogheda to Longford by 0900h.

Through the day Saturday this frontal zone is likely to stall somewhat mid-day near Dublin then pick up southward momentum by late afternoon and evening. This may lead to heavy accumulations of snow where the front stalls which could be Meath and Westmeath. Also heavy accumulations possible in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow as the air retreating will be losing warmth itself before the front pushes in.

The situation beyond that is somewhat less clear and accumulations in Dublin, inland central Leinster, and south Leinster through Munster, all of these on Saturday night and Sunday, could be patchy in the 2-5 cm range where it happens.

I am also rather concerned (don't want to say optimistic as that may be the wrong term by now) about blizzard potential Sunday-Monday because of the slower evolution on most model runs at 12z which tends to keep better dynamics for streamers in place. Would not be surprised if we encounter a hit or miss blizzard situation in Leinster depending on how the streamers set up.

Also, continued potential for heavy accumulations in Ulster until about mid-week and if all that is not enough, signs of a snowfall event mid-week from an undercutting low.

On the bright side, day 16 of the GFS looks amazingly close to normal.

Please, please, please, let winter go out with one mighty blizzard

John.Icy

Deank wrote: »

Are they streamers building off the S/E coast? :eek:

Look similar don't they! Been sitting under it here in S.Kildare for the last while, I'm sure you are too Dean unless you're more tucked away in the NE of the country near Naas??

Very cool to watch it building in the South, but people should watched through it on radar as it's almost textbook streamer appearance; fixed body, narrow strip, same axis etc. Looks like the Source is trying to creep ever so slightly east, so I might fall out of it soon enough though if the main body of it begins to shift west to east a little.

edit; tbc says no streamers, looks nice anyway!

Deank

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Not even remotely. They are just plain old fashioned troughs embedded around the circulation of an Atlantic LP, pretty conventional stuff.

Streamers are a very specific thing, the conditions around this part of the world won't allow for streamers until later into Sunday after the front has fizzled out.

Thanks for the clarification TBC

Deank

John.Icy wrote: »

Yes indeed! Been sitting under it here in S.Kildare for the last while, I'm sure you are too Dean unless you're more tucked away in the NE of the country near Naas??

Very cool to watch them build in the South, but people should watched through it on radar as it's almost textbook streamer; fixed body, narrow strip, same axis etc. Looks like the Source is trying to creep ever so slightly east, so I might fall out of it soon enough though if the main body of it begins to shift west to east a little.

Yup John am in N/E Kildare between Naas and Newbridge, it's not rained heavily here for the last couple of hours, looks like that could change.

ThisRegard

DominoDub wrote: »

WTF ..are People Crazy ..or do they think they know better than all the Warnings issued not to go up :mad:

They should be all made pay for the Wicklow Mountain Rescue!

It's a constant problem but I think the main issue today was that people were using it to avoid the closed N11 and problems around Enniskerry as earlier reports said it was not too bad but it has worsened since.

Deank

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

I wouldnt mind one mighty blizzard as long as we get back to the norm after that

Agreed, need to see some sustained sunshine after the mucky winter we've had. It would be nice to go out with a bang though.:D

John.Icy

Deank wrote: »

Yup John am in N/E Kildare between Naas and Newbridge, it's not rained heavily here for the last couple of hours, looks like that could change.

You've been very lucky in that rain shadow so far! Hopefully when this all clears and the Easterly sets up you can get a go!

Deank

ThisRegard wrote: »

It's a constant problem but I think the main issue today was that people were using it to avoid the closed N11 and problems around Enniskerry as earlier reports said it was not too bad but it has worsened since.

I got caught on the N11 going to a meeting in Bray just as the warnings were issued , got to the Cheerywood turn off about 8.15ish, moved 300 feet between then and near 10am, I (and others) had to drive the wrong way up the slip road to get back onto the M50 northbound, it was chaos.

Deank

John.Icy wrote: »

You've been very lucky in that rain shadow so far! Hopefully when this all clears and the Easterly sets up you can get a go!

Here's hoping John....

lucernarian

M.T. Cranium wrote:

Through the day Saturday this frontal zone is likely to stall somewhat mid-day near Dublin then pick up southward momentum by late afternoon and evening. This may lead to heavy accumulations of snow where the front stalls which could be Meath and Westmeath. Also heavy accumulations possible in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow as the air retreating will be losing warmth itself before the front pushes in.

Norway's HIRLAM, the NAE and the GFS have all planted the front to slowly undergo frontolysis in a line from Donegal to Manchester. There's no southward momentum envisaged, and the progressive setup we've seen today doesn't suggest that there will be such a dramatic change in the front's momentum before it fizzles out. Also the 850 hPa wind directions will favour more northerly locations for convective potential later on Sunday and then Monday. E.g. the east coast north of Drogheda and more than 10 km to maybe 40 km inland especially.

In saying that, the dewpoints are pretty much ideal for much of Leinster and Ulster from tomorrow night onwards. Plenty of moisture for streamers to crop up and a slacker wind flow especially. Upper temperatures may not be sensational but the somewhat slacker wind flow will help without allowing too much modification.

RiskItAllRick

Surfs up

lucernarian

Deank wrote: »

Thanks for the clarification TBC

No bother, the satellite feed here shows it best. Notice the complete lack of shower clouds forming to the immediate west of the massive occluded front stretching from Ireland towards Normandy currently.
http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

It does have a similar behaviour to a convergence zone as the two airmasses are nearly stationary right now.

force eleven

Rain shadow effect visible on M4 from Maynooth to well beyond the toll plaza at Enfield. Road is dry between these points, then it starts again before Kinnegad .

admiralofthefleet

avoca river in arklow is very high

ninebeanrows

ECM looks great with some good snow showers likely the east next week! I think at last we may get a covering in some unlucky eastern spots in the next 7 days

Such a cold winter to have so little snow here!

tricky D

Howth Harbour a while ago

Lucreto

Naas is not too bad today. A few showers this morning but nothing major. It is like any other windy day.

pad199207

Lucreto wrote: »

Naas is not too bad today. A few showers this morning but nothing major. It is like any other windy day.

Yeah, rang the father in Grand Canal Docks today and he couldn't believe the difference in the weather

Deank

Lucreto wrote: »

Naas is not too bad today. A few showers this morning but nothing major. It is like any other windy day.

Front edge of the next band swinging in here now, if only the dew points were a little lower we'd be in snow heaven.

BTW the annonmeter is showing N/E winds

admiralofthefleet

siobhan ryan just issued a warning for 'yellow snow'

the dirty cow

MayoForSam

Siobhan just mentioned a 'yellow snow' warning on the forecast - eeeeugh, gross

Macy0161

ThisRegard wrote: »

It's a constant problem but I think the main issue today was that people were using it to avoid the closed N11 and problems around Enniskerry as earlier reports said it was not too bad but it has worsened since.

I get as peeved as anyone at people who go up 'for a look at the snow', but in fairness, AA roadwatch and the likes had dropped the advice to avoid the gaps today, presumably because they felt Wicklow had enough coverage with all the problems in the Bray/ Enniskerry. However, it was those problems that made people chance it. And also reports suggests conditions significantly worsened up there as the temps dropped.

DOCARCH

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

the dirty cow

Light rain/drizzle's back. 3.7c atm.

Deank

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

siobhan ryan just issued a warning for 'yellow snow'

the dirty durty cow

FYP

Deank

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

No bother, the satellite feed here shows it best. Notice the complete lack of shower clouds forming to the immediate west of the massive occluded front stretching from Ireland towards Normandy currently.
http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

It does have a similar behaviour to a convergence zone as the two airmasses are nearly stationary right now.

Thanks TBC, very informative.

Chris_5339762

59mm in Dublin 16 in the last 24hours. Probably underreporting slightly due to my weather station being on my apartment balcony partially shielded by the block itself.

DOCARCH

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

59mm in Dublin 16 in the last 24hours. Probably underreporting slightly due to my weather station being on my apartment balcony partially shielded by the block itself.

Not bad! 62.6mm here since 1pm yesterday (fairly sheltered back garden).

compsys

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM looks great with some good snow showers likely the east next week! I think at last we may get a covering in some unlucky eastern spots in the next 7 days

Such a cold winter to have so little snow here!

Yeah, I'm in Dublin and for such a cold winter the lack of snow has been painful. Don't get me wrong, I've seen a few snow showers but if you were to just look at the monthly temps and weather statistics you'd have thought it would have been an epic winter snow wise.

If it were a mild winter I wouldn't have minded the lack of snow so much. But in Dublin there's been so many near misses it's been so hard to watch!

pad199207

Mate texted me that the power is gone in his Belfast Hotel!