Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

whitebriar

Looking at the models tonight,it strikes me as inevitable,even though specifics are not possible at the moment,that all of the east of the country will see lying snow eventually in the next 10 days and likely a lot of the rest of the country too.
We seem to be staring down the barrel of a gun similar to the November December 2010 spell.
There looks to be no way out in my opinion.
It would want to be a total fluke considering the depth of cold available and the likely length of it,to avoid features appearing at times to bring snowfall events.

That's my gut assessment as of now folks,let's see what happens.

Reiketsu

Had a light snow shower here and it's lying

ZX7R

See met eirann have this up on there web page:

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Wicklow and Meath

Light snowfall/snow showers.
Issued:
23 March 2013 06:00
Valid:
23 March 2013 21:00 to 24 March 2013 22:00

acassells80

Travelled from Kells back to blackrock and no snow along the route

Wine Goddess

Any chance someone could post some charts please?

Would love to see tomorrow morning's UKMO for example!

Tks in advance

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Any chance someone could post some charts please?

Would love to see tomorrow morning's UKMO for example!

Tks in advance

Tomorrow at 7am, UKMO

Weathering

My phone is currently showing snow and on thursday when it snowed for two hours it showed a clear night. O technology......

mahoney_j

Any of u weather gods see any mild weather on the horizon,Unlike most of u snowlovers(im a farmer) im sick of the cold and want some warm southerly or south west breezes to come up.Nothing against snow though i love it in austria for a week in jan and thats it!!

howlinwolf

whitebriar wrote: »

Looking at the models tonight,it strikes me as inevitable,even though specifics are not possible at the moment,that all of the east of the country will see lying snow eventually in the next 10 days and likely a lot of the rest of the country too.
We seem to be staring down the barrel of a gun similar to the November December 2010 spell.
There looks to be no way out in my opinion.
It would want to be a total fluke considering the depth of cold available and the likely length of it,to avoid features appearing at times to bring snowfall events.

That's my gut assessment as of now folks,let's see what happens.

cheers for that briar, im not previ to the models at the moment,are you baseing this on the model outlook or is it just your gut feeling....either way i hope your right.......we deserve some, everyone else has got some now its our turn;)

Weathering

mahoney_j wrote: »

Any of u weather gods see any mild weather on the horizon,Unlike most of u snowlovers(im a farmer) im sick of the cold and want some warm southerly or south west breezes to come up.Nothing against snow though i love it in austria for a week in jan and thats it!!

Tune in to the farming forecast tomorrow. Tip...Have tissues at the ready

Rougies

Weathering wrote: »

Tune in to the farming forecast tomorrow. Tip...Have tissues at the ready

The snow bunnies will have the tissues at the ready too

mickmackey1

A white Easter?? never heard that before...:eek:

ZX7R

mahoney_j wrote: »

Any of u weather gods see any mild weather on the horizon,Unlike most of u snowlovers(im a farmer) im sick of the cold and want some warm southerly or south west breezes to come up.Nothing against snow though i love it in austria for a week in jan and thats it!!

Probably towards the second week in April you should see a return to average temperatures for the time of year

Deank

mickmackey1 wrote: »

A white Easter?? never heard that before...:eek:

Jaysus I've seen a few, you must have been in nappies....:P

Weathering

mickmackey1 wrote: »

A white Easter?? never heard that before...:eek:

You have a higher chance of seeing a white easter than a white xmas. Strange but true

Rougies

mickmackey1 wrote: »

A white Easter?? never heard that before...:eek:

Somebody mentioned here before that there are more white Easters on record than white Christmas in Ireland.

DOCARCH

Rougies wrote: »

Somebody mentioned here before that there are more white Easters on record than white Christmas in Ireland.

Yip. Statistics do not lie!

lucernarian

ZX7R wrote: »

See met eirann have this up on there web page:

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Wicklow and Meath

Light snowfall/snow showers.
Issued:
23 March 2013 06:00
Valid:
23 March 2013 21:00 to 24 March 2013 22:00

That was issued this morning. They've left out Louth which I would fancy as the place which would get the brunt of showers. The radar's showing nothing but decaying showers throughout the Irish Sea but perhaps they expect some feature to produce something later on tonight...

whitebriar wrote:

Looking at the models tonight,it strikes me as inevitable,even though specifics are not possible at the moment,that all of the east of the country will see lying snow eventually in the next 10 days and likely a lot of the rest of the country too.
We seem to be staring down the barrel of a gun similar to the November December 2010 spell.
There looks to be no way out in my opinion.
It would want to be a total fluke considering the depth of cold available and the likely length of it,to avoid features appearing at times to bring snowfall events.

I wonder... The likes of Tuesday looks rather reasonable, in that the wind speed is much slacker at upper levels and wind shear looks to be ideally set up to generate consistent shower formation. But November 2010 brought us a very unstable atmosphere where lightning was not just a possibilty but actually expected. We're not going to see thundersnow out of those synoptics. But lying snow shouldn't be too hard to manage (above 5cm widely would be unlikely in my mind as daytime temperatures will still reach about 3 degrees in these conditions, with resultant melting).

compsys

Weathering wrote: »

You have a higher chance of seeing a white easter than a white xmas. Strange but true

Yes, average temps in Ireland around mid to late March (when Easter usually falls) are 9 or 10 degrees. At Xmas they're 8 or 9. So basically no difference really.

Duggys Housemate

compsys wrote: »

Yes, average temps in Ireland around mid to late March (when Easter usually falls) are 9 or 10 degrees. At Xmas they're 8 or 9. So basically no difference really.

Easter can fall from late march to mid to late April. Never mid march.

Rougies

compsys wrote: »

Yes, average temps in Ireland around mid to late March (when Easter usually falls) are 9 or 10 degrees. At Xmas they're 8 or 9. So basically no difference really.

I think the main reason for the higher chance of a white Easter is the lag effect of the cooling of the atmosphere over the course of the winter. So basically there is more cold air to tap into at Easter than there is at Christmas.

I could be completely wrong though

sunbabe08

is cork going to see any snow from this or the snow shield permanently up? it's not like i'm looking for major chaos like over in england, just a couple of cm.

mickmackey1

Rougies wrote: »

Somebody mentioned here before that there are more white Easters on record than white Christmas in Ireland.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=77894062&postcount=49

Rougies

mickmackey1 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=77894062&postcount=49

Interesting. I think what we could say to simplify it all is that snow is very rare in Ireland, and even more rare at Xmas and Easter, but it can happen, has happened, and will happen again eventually!

Courtesy Flush

Is there any particular way to predict how intense the Streamer activity might be from the Irish Sea , or is a watch and see kind of thing ?

whitebriar

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I wonder... The likes of Tuesday looks rather reasonable, in that the wind speed is much slacker at upper levels and wind shear looks to be ideally set up to generate consistent shower formation. But November 2010 brought us a very unstable atmosphere where lightning was not just a possibilty but actually expected. We're not going to see thundersnow out of those synoptics. But lying snow shouldn't be too hard to manage (above 5cm widely would be unlikely in my mind as daytime temperatures will still reach about 3 degrees in these conditions, with resultant melting).

I honestly think,the 3 degree's thing matters little if this cold persists.My awful hunch is something's going to turn up somewhere in the timeframe we're looking at having this cold feed.
We are looking at more surface cold advection in the coming week from GB too.
It's highly taxing to know what to make of it or what could come of it.
Just as it didn't surprise me to see snow ploughs in central Belfast in the past 36hrs,it wouldn't surprise me to see them in central Dublin at this rate before this spell caves.
We're getting colder,not warmer,uppers may fluctuate but I'd never underestimate what could turn up at short notice with this sustained cold feed especially when lying snow in nearby GB,which will not be going anywhere too soon will be aiding the surface cold requirements for snow.

snowstorm445

sunbabe08 wrote: »

is cork going to see any snow from this or the snow shield permanently up? it's not like i'm looking for major chaos like over in england, just a couple of cm.

Maybe into Monday and Tuesday as cold uppers reach us, but amounts will be small. The GFS was showing a decent system moving up from the south around Friday giving snow to many areas of Munster but it has moved it further North and it looks like it will fall as rain on the south coast. It's a long way off though.

lucernarian

whitebriar wrote: »

I honestly think,the 3 degree's thing matters little if this cold persists.My awful hunch is something's going to turn up somewhere in the timeframe we're looking at having this cold feed.
We are looking at more surface cold advection in the coming week from GB too.
It's highly taxing to know what to make of it or what could come of it.
Just as it didn't surprise me to see snow ploughs in central Belfast in the past 36hrs,it wouldn't surprise me to see them in central Dublin at this rate before this spell caves.
We're getting colder,not warmer,uppers may fluctuate but I'd never underestimate what could turn up at short notice with this sustained cold feed especially when lying snow in nearby GB,which will not be going anywhere too soon will be aiding the surface cold requirements for snow.

I've rarely seen snow settle at 3 degrees celsius. Snow overnight or in evenings could easily happen though. We don't have the depth of cold air if we can't even come close to an ice day this week. Have the models got that wrong? I doubt it. The cold spell a couple of weeks ago shows the pitfalls of relying too much on upper air temperatures to predict snow. Also, the global models take lying snow into account, IIRC.

acassells80

Clouds looking heavy but radar says no chance so far

whitebriar

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I've rarely seen snow settle at 3 degrees celsius. Snow overnight or in evenings could easily happen though. That's the whole point, it's not particularly "cold" if we can't even come close to an ice day this week. Have the models got that wrong? I doubt it. The cold spell a couple of weeks ago shows the pitfalls of relying too much on upper air temperatures to predict snow. Also, the global models take lying snow into account, IIRC.

You are missing my point l think.
This is not an event description or forecast even,it's a could.

For the record,I've seen lying snow survive 3 an 4 c many times in the 80's and substantially so twice as a kid in late march in the late 70's.True it depends on how much snow you have.My speculative gut thoughts here is assuming that,we would have to be verY flukey to avoid some more significant snowy feature appearing at short notice,given the window of time we are being subjected to this feed is so long.

Obviously that snow less fluke could happen too.
Let's see.
It's fascinating nonetheless from a weather nut like me's point of view because it is So rare to have such a length of window for nature to fool around with her cold in.
It is not fascinating for farmers.It's quite worrying and understandably so.

Regarding the models,they are but one guide,intuition and experience comes in here,just like it did the other night with the Belfast office of the Ukmo and they were substantially right.