Drop in support for FF , poll shows

raymon

A new redc poll shows a 2% drop in FF support.

SF down 2% too


http://m.rte.ie/news/touch/2013/0323/378076-poll/

Dob74

raymon wrote: »

A new redc poll shows a 2% drop in FF support.

SF down 2% too


http://m.rte.ie/news/touch/2013/0323/378076-poll/

Gov got a nice bump from the St. Patrick's day party.
The next few months will be a blood bath for them, the property tax and water charges.
Independents are looking strong, Could make it a FF/FG coalition if the numbers are right after next GE.
Sinn Fien doing poorly considering the open goal in front of them. However since there support is concentrated like labour will still increase their number of seats.

hallo dare

yoyo week after week. polls are obviously going to be different if different people are asked every week.no consistency in those polls.

raymon

I am now suspicious of the Sunday Independent polls.

As the Independent becomes more and more like a Fianna Fail newsletter , I suspect that there could be shennanigans afoot with their polls showing Fianna Fail favourably.

nesf

raymon wrote: »

I am now suspicious of the Sunday Independent polls.

As the Independent becomes more and more like a Fianna Fail newsletter , I suspect that there could be shennanigans afoot with their polls showing Fianna Fail favourably.

It forever amuses me that when a poll disagrees with someone it's been rigged, when it confirms their opinion it's obviously fair and balanced. There are a lot of undecided voters out there at the moment, there naturally will be a lot of variance between polls.

nesf

Dob74 wrote: »

Sinn Fien doing poorly considering the open goal in front of them. However since there support is concentrated like labour will still increase their number of seats.

I disagree, I think they'll struggle to get far beyond 20% for a fair long while purely because too many people in this country dismiss them as an option even before SF open their mouths. This will most likely change over time, maybe in 10 years they'll be pushing 30%+ and pretty much forcing their way into coalitions by sheer size but that's not going to happen any time soon.

michael999999

Polls can change weekly, fianna fail are still the most corrupt party in Europe!

hfallada

nesf wrote: »

I disagree, I think they'll struggle to get far beyond 20% for a fair long while purely because too many people in this country dismiss them as an option even before SF open their mouths. This will most likely change over time, maybe in 10 years they'll be pushing 30%+ and pretty much forcing their way into coalitions by sheer size but that's not going to happen any time soon.

I cant imagine Dublin middle class families who pride themselves on being liberal and modern voting for a party which has such an emphasis on the working class(aka taxing anyone with a decent wage extremely heavily). In the area where I live no one would dare say in public they would support SF. They lack knowledge on running businesses and I cant see they selling Ireland as a place for multinationals to locate to

nesf

hfallada wrote: »

I cant imagine Dublin middle class families who pride themselves on being liberal and modern voting for a party which has such an emphasis on the working class(aka taxing anyone with a decent wage extremely heavily). In the area where I live no one would dare say in public they would support SF. They lack knowledge on running businesses and I cant see they selling Ireland as a place for multinationals to locate to

Further, SF have nearly no presence in most small rural constituencies (with a couple of exceptions). It's going to take them an extremely long time to break into these areas, I mean neither Labour nor the Greens have done it, these are FF/FG battlegrounds and everyone else is a non-runner at the moment.

I really think SF are doing well at the moment. I mean with their policy base and strong urban bias they are limited in ways that FG and FF just aren't.

raymon

nesf wrote: »

It forever amuses me that when a poll disagrees with someone it's been rigged, when it confirms their opinion it's obviously fair and balanced. There are a lot of undecided voters out there at the moment, there naturally will be a lot of variance between polls.

I see your point . My dislike of FF dishonesty is obvious .
But the numbers are extraordinary.

In their MB poll , FF were 4 points ahead of FG , in the red c poll FG is 4 points ahead. That's a 8% discrepancy within a week. Looks suspicious.

In any case my opinion is that Sunday Independent is becoming like an Poblacht is to SF , just the journalistic wing of FF with a peppering of real news stories.

nesf

raymon wrote: »

I see your point . My dislike of FF dishonesty is obvious .
But the numbers are extraordinary.

In their MB poll , FF were 4 points ahead of FG , in the red c poll FG is 4 points ahead. That's a 8% discrepancy within a week. Looks suspicious.

In any case my opinion is that Sunday Independent is becoming like an Poblacht is to SF , just the journalistic wing of FF with a peppering of real news stories.

There's a 30% undecided number in that SI poll. That'll skew things.

Manach

To paraphrase Jon Stewart of the Daily Show, there is only one meaning accurate poll - that of the election day.

Loafing Oaf

hfallada wrote: »

I cant imagine Dublin middle class families who pride themselves on being liberal and modern voting for a party which has such an emphasis on the working class

Ah but what if they were led by someone from such a DMC family, and a woman to boot? Now if only they could find such a leader...

raymon

nesf wrote: »

There's a 30% undecided number in that SI poll. That'll skew things.

Nesf , just as an example ,it is clear that FF support has dropped from the latest poll , but because Sunday Independent is Fianna Fail's weekly newsletter it counters these facts with a makey uppey headline based on their skewed results from a week and a half earlier

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/50-coalition-tds-could-fall-as-ff-popularity-soars-29150281.html

Brussels Sprout

raymon wrote: »

Nesf , just as an example ,it is clear that FF support has dropped from the latest poll , but because Sunday Independent is Fianna Fail's weekly newsletter it counters these facts with a makey uppey headline based on their skewed results from a week and a half earlier

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/50-coalition-tds-could-fall-as-ff-popularity-soars-29150281.html

They did the same 2 or 3 weeks ago when the latest poll showed that FF support had dropped slightly from the previous poll. The indo's headline was something along the lines of "Government parties support nose-dives since election 2 years ago". They weren't happy with the poll results so they just shifted the reference point to make it look better. I was really impressed with that piece of spin. It showed true commitment to their cause.

raymon

So is the FF Sunday Independent selecting only polls and polling methods that show FF favourably .

This morning's FF "soaring" in the polls headline looks very suspicious to me given that the actual facts show FF dropping

Do all Independent journalists have the single goal of wanting to get FF back in favour with the people? Every other story is attacking FG , SF , Lab or Ind.

nesf

raymon wrote: »

Nesf , just as an example ,it is clear that FF support has dropped from the latest poll , but because Sunday Independent is Fianna Fail's weekly newsletter it counters these facts with a makey uppey headline based on their skewed results from a week and a half earlier

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/50-coalition-tds-could-fall-as-ff-popularity-soars-29150281.html

It's not clear. Seriously, is this your first time following polls? Neither poll says much, they are just one data point, a trend over four or five polls, better yet a trend across several different polls over time, will clearly show us support is going one way or the other for a party. One poll is interesting but doesn't tell us much.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

They did the same 2 or 3 weeks ago when the latest poll showed that FF support had dropped slightly from the previous poll. The indo's headline was something along the lines of "Government parties support nose-dives since election 2 years ago". They weren't happy with the poll results so they just shifted the reference point to make it look better. I was really impressed with that piece of spin. It showed true commitment to their cause.

That the SI spin things is not something I doubt. They don't conduct the research for their polls though, they just try to spin the numbers afterwards.