April 2013 Boards forecast contest

SeaFields

opps forgot again. done.

rameire

Did mine 4 hours ago. Just forgot to say done.
Not much tinternet in the mountains of limerick cork border.

delw

D'oh forgot


Done

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for April 2013 contest
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Forecaster _______ IMT ___ MAX ___ MIN ___ PRC ___ SUN ___ Bel-14
___________________________________________________________

jpmarn __________ 9.1 ___ 21.1 ___ -3.9 ___ 091 ___ 110 ___ 12.9
Joe Public ________ 8.9 ___ 24.9 ___ -4.9 ___ 079 ___ 129 ___ 14.9
homolumo _______ 8.8 ___ 18.1 ___ -3.0 ___ 090 ___ 109 ___ 12.3
nilhg ____________ 8.6 ___ 19.6 ___ -3.0 ___ 104 ___ 110 ___ 15.5
M.T. Cranium _____ 8.4 ___ 24.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 100 ___ 135 ___ 14.5
waterways _______ 8.2 ___ 22.1 ___ -5.1 ___ 082 ___ 131 ___ 10.2
dacogawa ________ 8.2 ___ 21.1 ___ -5.5 ___ 082 ___ 139 ___ 15.5
harps ___________ 8.2 ___ 18.9 ___ -3.2 ___ 080 ___ 080 ___ 11.0
Bsal ____________ 8.2 ___ 15.1 ___ -3.1 ___ 098 ___ 105 ____ 7.5
jd ______________ 8.1 ___ 21.1 ___ -4.5 ___ 090 ___ 102 ___ 14.2
snowstreams _____ 8.1 ___ 20.7 ___ -2.6 ___ 085 ___ 110 ___ 17.6
talkabout ________ 8.0 ___ 21.7 ___ -4.3 ___ 090 ___ 105 ___ 14.1
traecy.1 _________ 8.0 ___ 19.6 ___ -4.1 ___ 100 ___ 090 ___ 11.2
omicron _________ 8.0 ___ 17.0 ___ -3.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 12.5
200motels _______ 7.9 ___ 23.8 ___ -5.9 ___ 075 ___ 105 ___ 13.6
lostinashford _____ 7.9 ___ 16.7 ___ -1.5 ___ 081 ___ 094 ___ 12.3
okla ____________ 7.8 ___ 21.9 ___ -6.7 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 13.6

Con Sensus ______ 7.8 ___ 19.2 ___ -4.0 ___ 089 ___ 105 ___ 12.5

Strasser _________ 7.8 ___ 19.4 ___ -3.8 ___ 090 ___ 095 ___ 13.4
Rebelbrowser _____ 7.8 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.6 ___ 088 ___ 111 ___ 14.9
kindredspirit ______ 7.8 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 082 ___ 118 ___ 10.0
Rickylovesuall _____ 7.5 ___ 20.5 ___ -4.5 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 13.0
Hammer Archer ___ 7.5 ___ 15.2 ___ -4.3 ___ 094 ___ 086 ___ 11.0
Jerry Seinfeld _____ 7.2 ___ 19.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 085 ___ 105 ___ 11.0
Pauldry __________ 7.2 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 080 ___ 102 ___ 19.0
Tae laidir _________ 7.1 ___ 18.9 ___ -1.6 ___ 078 ___ 086 ___ 11.5
delw (-10) ________ 7.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 090 ___ 093 ___ 15.0
Seafields (-5) _____ 7.0 ___ 17.5 ___ -4.5 ___ 050 ___ 125 ___ 12.6
DOCARCH ________ 6.8 ___ 19.3 ___ -4.6 ___ 097 ___ 108 ___ 12.4
mickger844posts ___ 6.8 ___ 17.1 ___ -4.1 ___ 068 ___ 121 ___ 12.1
H2UMrsRobinson ___ 6.7 ___ 17.2 ___ -3.8 ___ 089 ___ 078 ___ 11.1
dexter647 ________ 6.6 ___ 18.7 ___ -5.1 ___ 072 ___ 078 ___ 15.1
Bejubby __________ 6.5 ___ 12.0 ___ -5.0 ___ 080 ___ 080 ___ 8.0
rameire (-5) ______ 6.1 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.5 ___ 085 ___ 107 ____ 8.1
dasa29 ___________6.0 ___ 19.0 ___ -5.0 ___ 085 ___ 110 ___ 16.0

Speak Now

Gurteen -4.5c this morning.

Speak Now

Casement -4.6c

M.T. Cranium

Markree could come in lower, but hasn't posted data yet for the 3rd. I saw them at -5 on hourly reports both nights (3rd and 4th early morning).

(edit ... also -5 there at 0400h Friday)

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Markree could come in lower, but hasn't posted data yet for the 3rd. I saw them at -5 on hourly reports both nights (3rd and 4th early morning).

(edit ... also -5 there at 0400h Friday)

Showing -6 at 0700h.

Joe Public

Mullingar was showing -6C at one stage last night.

Joe Public

The low for Mullingar on the 6th was -6.6C, unlikely this will be beaten during the rest of the month.

Okla is closest with -6.7C with MTC a length behind on 6.0C

But as we all know, the final outcome depends on Met Eireann's monthly report. As long as we don't have to depend on our Lotto with two different numbers on the same ball then all will be above board :-)


.

M.T. Cranium

I think everyone is still in the hunt at this point, with the IMT at (approx) 4.6 C and rainfall barely 50% if that, with only a few stations having received about the normal amount for the first twelve days, and most others still rather dry. There has also been a fair amount of sunshine with quite variable amounts in the long-range forecast period. I have the feeling that we would still get quite a range of forecasts if people could restart today. But it will have to "go some" to get above consensus from here in either the IMT or rainfall. I would also say the MAX is wide open but we're probably looking at a modified version of mercy rule for the MIN with the odd feature of having the highest score perhaps increased by one point (from 18 to 19 that is). I'm not sure yet what will qualify there having missed seeing some of the lowest values aside from Mullingar's -6.6 report. One thing that seems certain, we have not yet seen the MAX.

Speak Now

Bonus looks like 12.7c

Joe Public

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Bonus looks like 12.7c

Should have been Shannon

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is now on 6.4 C and appears headed up further at a slow and somewhat erratic pace.

Precip has reached normal to about 105% for the period and may back off that slightly.

Sunshine in the past week has been about 80% but an earlier surplus means we are now at about 120%. This could fall slightly.

I expect the MAX will be established next week, have not seen anything over 16 C so far, but see potential for 17 or 18 at least.

Jpmarn

Cork Airport reported a high of 17.6c yesterday.

Joe Public

And Roches Point 17.8C - should be higher today

M.T. Cranium

Update on IMT, 6.9 C after 22nd, estimated 7.1 C after today. May peak at this value then fall back slightly to finish near 6.8.

The rainfall has been generally right on the normal pace, some stations are running ahead, some back around 50% but the average looks to be closing in on something like 95 to 100 per cent.

Sunshine has picked up a bit from the previous week but probably not quite enough to sustain the previously reported average due to that very sunny first week, so about 110% now.

I suspect today will provide our MAX and we can pretty much assume the MIN has already been established (at what value in the hands of the MS but you can assume mercy rule scoring for all but perhaps high score).

pauldry

cork got to 17.9c today

Speak Now

Moorepark got 18.7

Tae laidir

Looks like Con has returned to form!

M.T. Cranium

Ouch, it was bound to happen sooner or later that Con Sensus would beat all of us. This could be the month although Con will score about zero for the MIN, so that may help us a bit.

In the U.S. contest that I run similar to this one (only temperature forecasts for six locations) normal was recently leading consensus and 75% of the field, adding even more futility.

I would enter "normal" here but I don't have the stats available for Max, Min or sometimes the bonus questions. Quite often, consensus is basically normal shaped by obvious starting trends that are not really long-range forecasts but model output common to all who care to enter. It's pretty rare I feel that the consensus will wander very far from normal unless there's a massive signal and then sometimes that signal is a false flag, that happened over at Netweather in their CET contest in Jan 2008 when there was an enormous arctic high on the charts around end of Dec 2007 that was supposed to send a very cold easterly to the UK, it never did and the field were blown away with a consensus forecast 2 or 3 deg lower than reality turned out. But that was all because of the opening days turning out much different than the short term forecasts were saying.

I was surprised how many people went above 7.5 this month given the state of play end of March and model runs available for early April. Looks like the concept of a warm second half was valid up to a point, but that point has just been passed and now we're going back down a couple of tenths, but it was a nice run while it lasted.

M.T. Cranium

After a quick look, I think Rickylovesusall has the best chance of beating Con, it will come down to sunshine as points were traded on MIN and bonus about equally, and most of the other things are very close. Our winner is going to come from the group around the correct IMT simply because very few people have anything like the right balance of Max and Min with a good bonus score, so you'd need to start with 24 or 25 points on the IMT to stand much chance of beating the field.

Joe Public

Just like me, Rickylovesusall is no great threat in the overall scheme of things

Rikand

We're only in April - still 8 months to go to win this

M.T. Cranium

What is the overall scheme of things? I've been looking into it, and it seems to be a bad case of food poisoning.

M.T. Cranium

Here are the final stats for April then ...

IMT ... 7.2 C

MAX ... 18.7 (23rd, Moore Park or Fermoy)

MIN ... --7.6 (Mountdillon, lowest April reading since 1988)

PRC ... 110% (Claremorris and Cork accounted for most of the surplus)

SUN ... 109%

Will get around to scoring soon, don't forget to enter May's contest.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for April 2013 contest
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Forecaster _______ IMT ___ MAX ___ MIN ___ PRC ___ SUN ___ Bel-14
___________________________________________________________

Actual values ........ 7.2 ___ 18.7 ___ -7.6 ___ 110 ___ 109 ___ 12.7

DOCARCH _______ 21 ___ 14 ___ 07* __ 11 ___ 10 ___ 10 ____ 73
dexter647 _______ 19 ___ 20 ___ 12* __ 02 ___ 04 ___ 06 ____ 63
dasa29 __________13 ___ 17 ___ 10* __ 07 ___ 10 ___ 04 ____ 61
Jerry Seinfeld ____ 25 ___ 12 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 09 ___ 07 ____ 60
okla ____________ 19 ___ 00 ___ 18* __ 07 ___ 08 ___ 08 ____ 60

Con Sensus ______ 19 ___ 15 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 09 ___ 10 ____ 60

Tae laidir ________ 24 ___ 18 ___ 00 ___ 04 ___ 05 ___ 08 ____ 59
Rickylovesuall ____ 22 ___ 02 ___ 06* __ 08 ___ 08 ___ 10 ____ 56
Rebelbrowser ____ 19 ___ 13 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 10 ___ 06 ____ 55
Strasser ________ 19 ___ 13 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 07 ___ 08 ____ 54
traecy.1 ________ 17 ___ 11 ___ 01* __ 12 ___ 06 ___ 07 ____ 54
mickger844posts _ 21 ___ 04 ___ 01* __ 01 ___ 08 ___ 09 ____ 54
Pauldry _________ 25 ___ 13 ___ 00 ___ 05 ___ 09 ___ 01 ____ 53
M.T. Cranium ____ 13 ___ 00 ___ 16* __ 12 ___ 05 ___ 06 ____ 52
200motels _______ 18 ___ 00 ___ 14* __ 03 ___ 09 ___ 08 ____ 52
kindredspirit _____ 19 ___ 13 ___ 00 ___ 06 ___ 08 ___ 05 ____ 51
homolumo _______ 09 ___ 14 ___ 00 ___ 08 ___ 10 ___ 09 ____ 50
omicron _________ 17 ___ 03 ___ 00 ___ 12 ___ 08 ___ 10 ____ 50
nilhg ___________ 11 ___ 11 ___ 00 ___ 13 ___ 10 ___ 05 ____ 50
Seafields (-5) ____ 23 ___ 08 ___ 06* __ 00 ___ 07 ___ 10 __ 54-5=49
harps ___________ 15 ___ 18 ___ 00 ___ 05 ___ 04 ___ 06 ____ 48
jd ______________ 16 ___ 00 ___ 06* __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 07 ____ 46
Hammer Archer ___ 22 ___ 00 ___ 03* __ 09 ___ 05 ___ 07 ____ 46
waterways _______ 15 ___ 00 ___ 12* __ 06 ___ 06 ___ 06 ____ 45
talkabout ________ 17 ___ 00 ___ 03* __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 07 ____ 44
H2UMrsRobinson __ 20 ___ 05 ___ 00 ___ 08 ___ 04 ___ 07 ____ 44
dacogawa ________ 15 ___ 00 ___ 13* __ 06 ___ 04 ___ 05 ____ 43
rameire (-5) ______ 14 ___ 13 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 10 ___ 03 __ 47-5=42
Bejubby _________ 18 ___ 00 ___ 10* __ 05 ___ 04 ___ 03 ____ 40
lostinashford _____ 18 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 05 ___ 07 ___ 09 ____ 39
Bsal ____________ 15 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 11 ___ 09 ___ 03 ____ 38
snowstreams _____ 16 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 10 ___ 03 ____ 36
jpmarn __________ 06 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 09 ___ 10 ___ 10 ____ 35
Joe Public ________ 08 ___ 00 ___ 08* __ 05 ___ 08 ___ 06 ____ 35
delw (-10) _______ 23 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 08 ___ 07 ___ 06 __ 44-10=34
__________________________

So, in the end, five managed to beat or at least tie Con Sensus, congrats to DOCARCH for leading the way in April.