Property prices down Dublin & Nationwide in February 2013

AnyNama112

Interesting to see the news media spinning these figures as price rises, but then they have a vested interest in driving up property prices (for advertising revenue, and often for personal reasons too).

Summary:
Dublin House prices are 54.6% lower than at their highest level in April 2007 (fell by 1.0% in the month of February 2013 but were 2.5% higher compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Apartments are now 58.8% lower than their peak in February 2007 (rose by 5.8% in the month of February 2013 and were 7.8% higher compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Residential property prices are 55.9% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 0.3% in the month of February 2013 but were 3.0% higher than a year ago)

Residential properties in the Rest of Ireland are 48.5% lower than highest level in September 2007 (fell by 2.1% in February 2013 and were 6.1% lower compared to a year earlier)

Overall, the national index is 50.7% lower than its highest level in September 2007 (fell by 1.5% in February 2013 and were 2.6% lower compared to a year earlier)

D3PO

explain to me how that is spin ?

All figures are related to the same month the previous year as there are different monthly trends that impact property. It is the same with employment where month by month figures dont tend to show a real picture of things due to seasonal impacts.

Anybody with a clue would have anticipated Febs figures to be down on Jans given Jans would include an impact from people missing TRS deadlines and falling into Jan.

So it makes more sense to compare Feb 12 with Feb 13. Its not spin its logical analisis.

washman3

D3PO wrote: »

explain to me how that is spin ?
Its not spin its logical analisis.

It is spin.! plain and simple and nothing else. its a deliberate attempt by obvious vested interests to talk up the property market. actually its the same spin that was the biggest single factor in bankrupting this country.

GetWithIt

D3PO wrote: »

explain to me how that is spin ?

All figures are related to the same month the previous year as there are different monthly trends that impact property. It is the same with employment where month by month figures dont tend to show a real picture of things due to seasonal impacts.

Anybody with a clue would have anticipated Febs figures to be down on Jans given Jans would include an impact from people missing TRS deadlines and falling into Jan.

So it makes more sense to compare Feb 12 with Feb 13. Its not spin its logical analisis.

I'm pretty sure I've never seen a year on year unemployment statistic.

The OP doesn't really explain how it is spin, and I'm not saying it is either, but if you simply look at the figures versus the headlines they don't really tally.

NamaWineLake has a handy table in his commentary.

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/03/26/largest-decline-in-residential-property-prices-for-a-year-february-2013-cso-indices-published/



Ignoring apartments - the CSO note that these numbers are pretty much meaningless due to the low volumes - all month on month figures are down.

All year on year figures are down apart from Dublin houses at +2.5% (ignoring Dublin All at +3.0% as that is simply the aggregation of Dublin houses + the already ignored apartments)

The only positive figures monthly or yearly are Dublin houses year on year.

Headline?

"Dublin property prices rise in February"
http://www.fxcentre.com/news.asp?3048448

"Dublin property prices up 3% over last year"
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/dublin-property-prices-up-3-over-last-year-1.1339173

I believe various radio reports were even starker.

D3PO

GetWithIt wrote: »

I'm pretty sure I've never seen a year on year unemployment statistic.

.

unemployment figures are generally listed as "seasonally adjusted" for the same reason the property should be treated that way.

im not saying prices are on the rise but saying its spin to compare YoY is ludacris.

Its a common method of comparrison on many things. Just listen to any analysists call when a publically listed company is presenting their quarterly results. They will always reference the same quarter of the previoius year as a method of comparrison as well as comparing it to the previous quarter.

Likewise the house price data is being presented in the same way. Its a common methodology to present financial data like this.

Anynama141

D3PO wrote: »

unemployment figures are generally listed as "seasonally adjusted" for the same reason the property should be treated that way.

im not saying prices are on the rise but saying its spin to compare YoY is ludacris.

It's not ludicrous. It's spin because prices from Jan to Feb are DOWN. If they said they were comparing year-on-year, they would STILL be wrong because the CSO rebases the index every January, so you are no longer comparing like with like. Plenty of info on the CSO website if you are truly interested, but clearly the media in general in this country are not as they will look for any positive spin they can find at all - even if it means ignoring the actual current trend (month by month) or comparing apples and oranges (by trying to compare YoY with rebased indices).

D3PO wrote: »

Its a common method of comparrison on many things. Just listen to any analysists call when a publically listed company is presenting their quarterly results. They will always reference the same quarter of the previoius year as a method of comparrison as well as comparing it to the previous quarter.

Likewise the house price data is being presented in the same way. Its a common methodology to present financial data like this.

I hope you understand now why YoY comparisons of CSO property price data are at best questionable at at worst totally misleading.

Watch out for the spin from vested interests, folks - it played a huge role in causing the 'must buy!' property panic first time around. Don't get fooled again.

D3PO

Anynama141 wrote: »

It's not ludicrous. It's spin because prices from Jan to Feb are DOWN. If they said they were comparing year-on-year, they would STILL be wrong because the CSO rebases the index every January, so you are no longer comparing like with like. Plenty of info on the CSO website if you are truly interested, but clearly the media in general in this country are not as they will look for any positive spin they can find at all - even if it means ignoring the actual current trend (month by month) or comparing apples and oranges (by trying to compare YoY with rebased indices).

I hope you understand now why YoY comparisons of CSO property price data are at best questionable at at worst totally misleading.

Watch out for the spin from vested interests, folks - it played a huge role in causing the 'must buy!' property panic first time around. Don't get fooled again.

It is ludacris because even using your arguments it is a pointless measurement. House sale volumes are so low that the variance month to month right now has little statistical value in terms of pointing where exactly the market is at.

again i will say im not saying things are rising but trying to call a genuine report on house prices spin has no credence.

Anynama141

D3PO wrote: »

It is ludacris because even using your arguments it is a pointless measurement. House sale volumes are so low that the variance month to month right now has little statistical value in terms of pointing where exactly the market is at.

So you agree with me that the media claiming property prices are rising (in the face of data that suggests falls, if anything) is spin one way or another?

MMAGirl

very interesting stats on apartments in general there.
i knew yields were excellent on 1 bed apts in dublin, but thats strong price increases.
i suppose it was from a low base though.

D3PO

Anynama141 wrote: »

So you agree with me that the media claiming property prices are rising (in the face of data that suggests falls, if anything) is spin one way or another?

show me where in the article you psoted that they have said house prices are rising ? Your reading what you want into it to fit your argument. What your saying doesnt actually exist in the article.

gaius c

D3PO wrote: »

explain to me how that is spin ?

From the CSO themselves:

Weights
Weights are calculated at the beginning of each year based on the value of transactions during the
previous year as given by the mortgage drawdown data. The index is an annual chain-linked
Laspeyres-type index. It is calculated by updating the previous month’s weights by the estimated
monthly changes in their average prices.

In other words, you should never compare CSO values across calendar years, as they reset the weightings every Jan. So making comparisons with last Feb is misleading, as is a Dec/Jan comparison. This is lost on the journalists, of course.

Tombo2001

Anyone looking at buying a house in Dublin can tell you prices have jumped considerably in the past 12 months.

gaius c

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Anyone looking at buying a house in Dublin can tell you prices have jumped considerably in the past 12 months.

Debateable.

Tombo2001

gaius c wrote: »

Debateable.

Not sure what point you are trying to make, but there is absolutely no debate about it.

I take it you are not actively trying to buy a house.

gaius c

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Not sure what point you are trying to make, but there is absolutely no debate about it.

The graph (based on PPR data) is rather "noisy" but the general trend is still down, not up.

D3PO

gaius c wrote: »

The graph (based on PPR data) is rather "noisy" but the general trend is still down, not up.

funny the graph you published shows Jan 12 - Jan 13 Dublin prices slightly up. (no feb point on graph so latest yearly comparrison that can be made)

So you just contradicted your own argument :D:D

Being noisy is to be expected with so little volume of sales actually happening.

lima

The fact that there is limited stock due to people living in houses for free and not paying their mortgages for up to two years is causing a severe restriction on the market. This is the one and only reason why we are seeing any type of ppoperty increase.

Once repossessions rightly happen then we will see these freeloaders get booted out and the banks will put more stock on the market. Then prices will go down again to their worthy value.

gurramok

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Anyone looking at buying a house in Dublin can tell you prices have jumped considerably in the past 12 months.

Where?

The other thread had another poster posting claims about D15 which were proved wrong with asking prices falling and lower prices evident on the PPR during the year.

So where is this price jump? A single street, a whole suburb or many suburbs?

Anynama141

D3PO wrote: »

show me where in the article you psoted that they have said house prices are rising ? Your reading what you want into it to fit your argument. What your saying doesnt actually exist in the article.

What article? I didn't post any article at all. I merely pointed out that the media would be spinnibg this as price rises, and I'm correct. The Irish Daily Mail claims on its front page today that 'Values Soar in Dublin' on the back of a .3% monthly fall and a 2.5% monthly fall in house values. Most media outlets did the same - how is that not spin?

And didn't you just say that the figures can't tell you anything anyway, so ANY claims based on them must be spin?

Don't get fooled again, folks. They are trying to stoke Bubble 2.0...

lima

Check this out for EA's trying to create Bubble 2.0, I honestly have to laugh:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=709243

gurramok

Indo's spin "Property prices in capital rise by 3pc but rural values plummet"
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-in-capital-rise-by-3pc-but-rural-values-plummet-29156774.html

In fact they have risen, fallen, risen, fallen, risen, fallen...ie a rollercoaster ride for the last maybe 9 months.

The CSO do not say what the volumes are, we have to rely on the PPR for that.

D3PO

Anynama141 wrote: »

What article? I didn't post any article at all. ..

Well the text of your opening post had to come from somewhere as i assume is what you were pointing to as a reference to your point ?

If not why bother posting it at all. You could clearly have made reference to the likes of the daily mail front page or whatever as the basis of your argument.

My point was that the text in your opening post doesnt show spin the figures quoted are correct, and providing YoY as well as month to month comparrisons is a fairly standard way of reporting things.

Where as a headline prices soar in Dublin is spin

gaius c

D3PO wrote: »

funny the graph you published shows Jan 12 - Jan 13 Dublin prices slightly up. (no feb point on graph so latest yearly comparrison that can be made)

So you just contradicted your own argument :D:D

Being noisy is to be expected with so little volume of sales actually happening.

Seems to have every Jan actually. Lack of transactions is certainly a problem with trying to get reliable trends. Full data here.



Loads more over at the pin. Will try to update regularly as I found last month that they are still adding entries for 2010!

gaius c

D3PO wrote: »

Well the text of your opening post had to come from somewhere as i assume is what you were pointing to as a reference to your point ?

If not why bother posting it at all. You could clearly have made reference to the likes of the daily mail front page or whatever as the basis of your argument.

My point was that the text in your opening post doesnt show spin the figures quoted are correct, and providing YoY as well as month to month comparrisons is a fairly standard way of reporting things.

Where as a headline prices soar in Dublin is spin

Already explained to you why it's spin-ish but you might have missed it.

GetWithIt

Cough, splutter .....



Yep, no spin here.

lima

GetWithIt wrote: »

Cough, splutter .....



Yep, no spin here.

Unbelievable. May it backfire bad for the vested interests involved.

Anynama141

D3PO wrote: »

Well the text of your opening post had to come from somewhere as i assume is what you were pointing to as a reference to your point ?

It was a bare list of the figures from another site. I needed to show the figures as my post was about the figures.

D3PO wrote: »

If not why bother posting it at all. You could clearly have made reference to the likes of the daily mail front page or whatever as the basis of your argument.

Because a) the Daily Mail in question wasn't published until today and
b) I had to post the figures to talk about the figures.

D3PO wrote: »

My point was that the text in your opening post doesnt show spin the figures quoted are correct, and providing YoY as well as month to month comparrisons is a fairly standard way of reporting things.

Yes, those figures don't 'show any spin' because they are just the figures.

D3PO wrote: »

Where as a headline prices soar in Dublin is spin

It is indeed. So I don't know how you got so confused when I prefaced the bare figures with this comment:

Interesting to see the news media spinning these figures as price rises

HTH.

Anynama141

More propaganda from vested interests in the press and property industry:

THE price of a second hand home has jumped by almost 10% over the last year, an estate agent has claimed.

Increased demand for starter semi-detached homes and strong sales of properties in south Dublin helped push the price of houses up by another 3.3pc in the first three months of the year, it said.

The latest DNG property price gauge maintained demand for houses in the €250,000 to €350,000 price range also added value.

Keith Lowe, chief executive, said any price increase should be put in context against the previous six years of decline.

"House price increases are also not consistently spread throughout the market, reflecting demand preferences but it is encouraging to see three straight quarters of house price increases," he said.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondhand-home-prices-soar-by-10pc-property-price-survey-29167229.html

Duckjob

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondhand-home-prices-soar-by-10pc-property-price-survey-29167229.html[/QUOTE]

THE price of a second hand home has jumped by almost 10% over the last year, an estate agent has claimed.

Increased demand for starter semi-detached homes and strong sales of properties in south Dublin helped push the price of houses up by another 3.3pc in the first three months of the year, it said.

The latest DNG property price gauge maintained demand for houses in the €250,000 to €350,000 price range also added value.

Keith Lowe, chief executive, said any price increase should be put in context against the previous six years of decline.

"House price increases are also not consistently spread throughout the market, reflecting demand preferences but it is encouraging to see three straight quarters of house price increases," he said.

Remember folks, the golden rules of Irish property :

High or rising property prices = Recovery, Hope, Good news, encouraging, silver lining etc.
Low or falling property prices = Bad news, despair, doom & gloom, something must be done, WAH WAH, Government, DO SOMETHING, WAH WAH etc

Anynama141

Duckjob wrote: »

Remember folks, the golden rules of Irish property :

High or rising property prices = Recovery, Good news, encouraging, silver lining etc.
Low or falling property prices = Bad news, doom & gloom, something must be done, WAH WAH, Government, DO SOMETHING, WAH WAH etc

I don't just celebrate increases in property prices - increases in the cost of any basic human need are worth celebrating.

Increasing food prices - hurray!
Increasing oil prices - yipee!
Increasing clothing costs - huzzah!

F*cking morons.

AlanG

Anynama141 wrote: »

More propaganda from vested interests in the press and property industry:



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/secondhand-home-prices-soar-by-10pc-property-price-survey-29167229.html

This really shows the low standards of the independent. Now that the PPR exists anyone who uses reports from estate agents has an agenda. Even the DAFT and MY HOME reports are irrelevant now, especially as they are usually reported as house price changes, not asking price changes.