WC 2014 Group C Permutations

Imhof Tank

Ireland, Sweden and Austria all on 8 points currently with the Swedes having played one game less. These 3 teams effectively form a mini group within the group scrapping for 2nd place and a play off berth.

Each of the mini group teams has games against the Faroes whipping boys and runaway group leaders Germany to play. Ireland and Sweden play Kazahstan home and away respectively. Sweden have 3 games against their direct mini group rivals remaining, Ireland and Austria have 2.

So, assuming all 3 contenders (a) beat the Faroes, and (b) draw all games against each other then this may come down to results v Germany and Ireland and Sweden's comparative results v Kazakhstan.

If Germany beat everybody form here on in, and Ireland best Kazakhstan in Dublin, it would then come down to Sweden beating the Kazakhs away which would be far from easy for them - in the same way that Slovakia had such trouble with Armenia in the last campaign.

In a group where we have been so unimpressive to date I dont think our position on the table is that bad at all and we are still well in the hunt for 2nd place.

The_Kew_Tour

We aint going to Brazil.

/

NIMAN

Assuming we beat the Faroe's
We need to
1) Beat Sweden at home
2) Beat Austria away
3) Beat Kazakhstan at home

We aint getting 9pts outta those game. End of.

token101

NIMAN wrote: »

Assuming we beat the Faroe's
We need to
1) Beat Sweden at home
2) Beat Austria away
3) Beat Kazakhstan at home

We aint getting 9pts outta those game. End of.

And even at that, wouldn't we be out anyway if Sweden beat Germany at home?

Imhof Tank

NIMAN wrote: »

Assuming we beat the Faroe's
We need to
1) Beat Sweden at home
2) Beat Austria away
3) Beat Kazakhstan at home

We aint getting 9pts outta those game. End of.

We dont "need" to beat Sweden or Austria.

We need to avoid defeat against them both and hope they draw against each other in Vienna.

Sweden's game in hand is effectively their home game v Austria. If they draw that game we are 1 point off them and need to better their results v Germany (unlikely) or Kaz (totally possible).

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

We dont "need" to beat Sweden or Austria.

We need to avoid defeat against them both and hope they draw against each other in Vienna.

Sweden's game in hand is effectively their home game v Austria. If they draw that game we are 1 point off them and need to better their results v Germany (unlikely) or Kaz (totally possible).

We then rely on others doing us favours. 90% of time its does not.

We need to get 12 points from 15 points now. Cant see that myself.

I know im in pretty crap form as things stand, but even the little optimism inside me has died, and I have seen the reality.

That is that we are out of the group.

Imhof Tank

@ The Kew Tour and Niman and those who thanked your posts - are any of you actually involved as participants in any real life sporting activities by any chance, and if so do come out with statements like "we aint going"; "end of" whenever you encounter a setback in a league situation??

adox

We could have potentially had 6 points from the last two games, certainly 4 and we ended up with two.

We just won't get the points IMO.

Imhof Tank

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

We then rely on others doing us favours. 90% of time its does not.

We need to get 12 points from 15 points now. Cant see that myself.

I know im in pretty crap form as things stand, but even the little optimism inside me has died, and I have seen the reality.

That is that we are out of the group.

Dont know how you come to that conclusion. Werent we done massive unexpected favours by Armenia in the last campaign?

And in the previous campaign by Bulgaria imploding?

RikkFlair

I think we'll be hoping for a bit of a meltdown by either Sweden or Austria (or both) towards the end of this group, similar to how Slovakia folded in the last campaign....as I can see another 2 draws away to Austria and home to Sweden.

Even scraping 2nd place in that scenario might not be enough as the runner up with the lowest points total doesn't even get into the play offs.

Of course we could make it a bit easier for ourselves by beating Sweden at home. Possible? Yes, but from what I've seen against group rivals in competitive home qualifiers over the years, I wouldn't be putting a lot of money on it.

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Dont know how you come to that conclusion. Werent we done massive unexpected favours by Armenia in the last campaign?

And in the previous campaign by Bulgaria imploding?

But why do you think it will happen again?

I cant see that happening. Sweden have super record of knowing how beat teams when they need to. We dont.

I mean Sweden and Austria ain't no Armenia.

Can I say I be only too happy to be eating my words. I hope people come back here and pick out my first post and laugh and mock me for all the world. I wont be upset.

But that ain't going to happen. It has not happened for long time(Ireland having 2 big games in a row) and not happening now.

aramush

Beat the Faroe's at home, go to Austria, get the typical draw then back we come to Dublin and lose to Sweden. Then its off to Germany where we will lose heroically, by that stage the wheel's will have fallen off and a late surge will get us past Kazakstan in Dublin in Traps last game. Likely outcome imo.

bohsboy

aramush wrote: »

Beat the Faroe's at home, go to Austria, get the typical draw then back we come to Dublin and lose to Sweden. Then its off to Germany where we will lose heroically, by that stage the wheel's will have fallen off and a late surge will get us past Kazakstan in Dublin in Traps last game. Likely outcome imo.

Thats it in a nutshell. Cant argue with that.:o

Johnny Utah

aramush wrote: »

Beat the Faroe's at home, go to Austria, get the typical draw then back we come to Dublin and lose to Sweden. Then its off to Germany where we will lose heroically, by that stage the wheel's will have fallen off and a late surge will get us past Kazakstan in Dublin in Traps last game. Likely outcome imo.

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario. Trap took over a fourth seed team and he's going to leave us as a fourth seed team...

Germany to run away with the group, Sweden for the play-off, Austria 3rd and Ireland 4th.

EdenHazard

Johnny Utah wrote: »

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario. Trap took over a fourth seed team and he's going to leave us as a fourth seed team...

Germany to run away with the group, Sweden for the play-off, Austria 3rd and Ireland 4th.

How can we ever repay him for truly allowing Ireland to punch well above its weight :rolleyes: Traps clueless and his defenders are just Sky Sports obsessed, who denigrate the teams players because they don't play for Liverpool, Man United etc. Newflash neither do the Austrians(ok with exception of Alaba) yet they dominated us at HOME! 42 per cent possession, Faroe Islands would prob have similar stats. JOKE!

Mr.Nice Guy

I stuck this in the match thread but it's better suited here:

Working on the generous assumption that we would beat both Sweden and Austria, whilst Sweden would beat Austria both times, if it went along these lines:

Aus 1 Swe 2
Ire 2 Far Is 0

Swe 3 Far Is 1

Germ 3 Aus 1
Ire 2 Swe 1

Kaz 1 Swe 3
Aus 1 Ire 2

Ger 3 Ire 0
Swe 2 Aus 1

Swe 1 Ger 2
Far Is 1 Aus 2
Ire 2 Kaz 1


Total pts:

Sweden: 12/18
Ireland: 12/15
Austria: 3/15

Based on these fantasy predictions I work it out that the three-way battle would end like so:

Swe – 20 pts
Ire – 20 pts
Aus – 11 pts

(Sweden to advance)

I can't see us getting anything in Germany. That point the Swedes got there could prove the difference.

I reckon if Sweden defeat Austria away from home in June then they are favourites to progress, but I wouldn't say that's a foregone conclusion. Remember Germany only won there 2-1, and Sweden struggled away from home against the Faroe Islands.

We basically have to hope Austria can do something against Sweden in June. If they do, it's very much alive as long as we pull out wins against the other two. If Sweden beat Austria away, we'll be up against it.

RikkFlair

This 4th seed thing has been mentioned a few times now. We haven't been a 4th seed team since the pre Charlton days....we've been 3rd seeds for all Traps campaigns.

Johnny Utah

Thanks Trap, now I don't get to wear my mankini on Copacabana beach next summer... this makes me very angry! :mad:

aramush

RikkFlair wrote: »

This 4th seed thing has been mentioned a few times now. We haven't been a 4th seed team since the pre Charlton days....we've been 3rd seeds for all Traps campaigns.

We were fourth seeds for Euro 2008 qualifiers, granted it was before Traps time.

Johnny Utah

RikkFlair wrote: »

This 4th seed thing has been mentioned a few times now. We haven't been a 4th seed team since the pre Charlton days....we've been 3rd seeds for all Traps campaigns.

Sorry, I was thinking of Staunton, but he actually finished 3rd behind Germany & Czech Rep for the 2008 tournament. It was actually 2006 that we finished 4th, behind France, Switzerland and fcuking Israel! :mad:

Looks like we're heading for another 4th place finish with Trap.

MisterAnarchy

RikkFlair wrote: »

This 4th seed thing has been mentioned a few times now. We haven't been a 4th seed team since the pre Charlton days....we've been 3rd seeds for all Traps campaigns.

To be fair we should have been second seeds for this campaign but for Uefa screwing us over and making the draw 5 months earlier than normal whilst qualifying for the European championships was still ongoing.

Looks like we're heading for another 4th place finish with Trap.

As bad as we are I still think we will finish ahead of Austria, whether we finish ahead of Sweden is possible but unlikely.

Johnny Utah

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

To be fair we should have been second seeds for this campaign but for Uefa screwing us over and making the draw 5 months earlier than normal whilst qualifying for the European championships was still ongoing.

How the fcuk did Norway manage to get into Pot 1?

They haven't qualified since France '98?????

dsmythy

aramush wrote: »

Beat the Faroe's at home, go to Austria, get the typical draw then back we come to Dublin and lose to Sweden. Then its off to Germany where we will lose heroically, by that stage the wheel's will have fallen off and a late surge will get us past Kazakstan in Dublin in Traps last game. Likely outcome imo.

When we played Germany at home we were "supposed" to lose 6-1, so said the players afterwards. I'd hate to see the heroics in Germany....

MisterAnarchy

Johnny Utah wrote: »

How the fcuk did Norway manage to get into Pot 1?

They haven't qualified since France '98?????

The July 2011 FIFA Ranking was used to seed the teams.
Fifa are a joke the way they decide on the criteria for seeding ,chopping and changing all the time .

simongurnick

Sweden have a tough run in. Three away games against us, Austria and Kazakhstan and home to zee Germans and Austria. Faroes at home is a gimme. Quite plausible they draw the three away games, lose to Germany, draw with Austria and beat Faroes. (7 points) or even beating kazakhs gives them 9.

We have Faroes and Kazakhs (should be 6 points) lose to Germany but draw with the other two = 8 points OR beat either sweden or austria gives us 10 points

Austria have two games against Sweden, us and Germany, finishing with the Faroes. Assuming they beat faroes they would need another 5 points to match our 8 as above, meaning they will need to beat one of the top teams and draw with the others.

So, beating the two "easier" teams, drawing with both Austria and Sweden and still losing to Germany could see us into 2nd.

Loads of football left to play lads...chin up!

DazMarz

Those two dropped points tonight were huge, and that will come back to haunt as the race for 2nd (Germany have won this group, no question) tightens up. So far, Ireland's results (not performances, results) have been fairly expected:

Beat the Faroes and Kazakhs (regardless of performance, 3 points were gleaned from each game)

Get beaten by Germany (again, performance aside, you'd have expected this)

Draw with Sweden (pretty unexpected result there, and potentially a good one)

Draw with Austria (a pretty 'unknown' game that Ireland should have won, but dropped 2 very precious points)

Five games remain, and in order to have any hope of qualifying at all, a minimum of 10 points is a must. 12 is a dream. 13 or 15 is a pure wet dream (said points total hinging on a draw/win in Cologne).

There is a lot of football left to play, but I think the result that we will all look back on with dismay will be tonight's draw with Austria. Had we held on for another 60 seconds and got the 3 points, it would be much brighter. Now, the uncertainty looms once again.

RikkFlair

aramush wrote: »

We were fourth seeds for Euro 2008 qualifiers, granted it was before Traps time.

I stand corrected. In my defence I've purged those 2 years from my memory :pac:

ArmaniJeanss

simongurnick wrote: »

So, beating the two "easier" teams, drawing with both Austria and Sweden and still losing to Germany could see us into 2nd.

A second place finish which almost certainly wouldn't be good enough to get into the play-offs, judging by what was required last time.

secman

CAN WE APPLY TO PLAY ALL REMAINING 5 GAMES AWAY ? Its not fair, having to play at home. We are set up to play away.........please UEFA please......................

Secman

death1234567

Well we are not out of the group (yet). Sweden and Austria aren't exactly powerhouses of european football. We have chance in the two games versus Austria and Sweden, that's what our chances come down to. I don't think we will qualify but I don't think any team will run away with second place.

stooge

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I stuck this in the match thread but it's better suited here:

Working on the generous assumption that we would beat both Sweden and Austria, whilst Sweden would beat Austria both times, if it went along these lines:



Based on these fantasy predictions I work it out that the three-way battle would end like so:

Swe – 20 pts
Ire – 20 pts
Aus – 11 pts

(Sweden to advance)

I can't see us getting anything in Germany. That point the Swedes got there could prove the difference.

I reckon if Sweden defeat Austria away from home in June then they are favourites to progress, but I wouldn't say that's a foregone conclusion. Remember Germany only won there 2-1, and Sweden struggled away from home against the Faroe Islands.

We basically have to hope Austria can do something against Sweden in June. If they do, it's very much alive as long as we pull out wins against the other two. If Sweden beat Austria away, we'll be up against it.

If we finish level on points with Sweden, having beaten them at home then we would go through as a result of a better record against the Swedes (1 draw and 1 win).

not going to happen though. To go through we need to gain a point in Germany, beat Sweden, Faroes and Khazakstan and then match The Swedes result against Austria away. Thats a huges ask.

If Trap manages to get us through now, then it'll be a big two fingered salute to the begrudgers.

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

@ The Kew Tour and Niman and those who thanked your posts - are any of you actually involved as participants in any real life sporting activities by any chance, and if so do come out with statements like "we aint going"; "end of" whenever you encounter a setback in a league situation??

I used to play Footie and few other sports yes.

I dont know why this makes a difference if you have or have not.

Imhof Tank

stooge wrote: »

If we finish level on points with Sweden, having beaten them at home then we would go through as a result of a better record against the Swedes (1 draw and 1 win).

not going to happen though. To go through we need to gain a point in Germany, beat Sweden, Faroes and Khazakstan and then match The Swedes result against Austria away. Thats a huges ask.

.

First, goal difference is the tie breaker if we finish level on points not head to head results so forget about that for a start.

On your scenario - you appear to be assuming Sweden will beat Germany at home and Kazakstan away - pretty big assumptions IMO. I can see Sweden away to Kazakstan being a key game - our win there could yet be crucial.

Imhof Tank

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I used to play Footie and few other sports yes.

I dont know why this makes a difference if you have or have not.

Its just so defeatist.

OK, feelings were running a bit high last night given the manner of the defeat and the “end of story” posts hit a nerve in a way. I am involved in a league myself running since last September and have been all over the country through the winter scrapping for results and enduring “heartbreak” situations. We have however exceeded all our hopes at the start of the season and still have a slim chance of winning the whole thing with only a couple of legs to go. Don’t get me wrong we are realistic but until its mathematically impossible you have to believe you can succeed. Otherwise why bother turning up?

It’s the very same for this Ireland team. Qualification is still very possible. The squad has to believe this and ignore the experts with keyboards who are essentially saying the remainder of the campaign is a foregone conclusion.

SantryRed

secman wrote: »

CAN WE APPLY TO PLAY ALL REMAINING 5 GAMES AWAY ? Its not fair, having to play at home. We are set up to play away.........please UEFA please......................

Secman

We are set up to play away and draw. Regardless of where we play, we need to win.

Imhof Tank

I’ll tell ya – you can tell the Swedes now, they’ll be watching – we’re still fighting for this play off. And I’ll tell you honestly, I will love it if we beat them – LOVE IT!

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Its just so defeatist.

OK, feelings were running a bit high last night given the manner of the defeat and the “end of story” posts hit a nerve in a way. I am involved in a league myself running since last September and have been all over the country through the winter scrapping for results and enduring “heartbreak” situations. We have however exceeded all our hopes at the start of the season and still have a slim chance of winning the whole thing with only a couple of legs to go. Don’t get me wrong we are realistic but until its mathematically impossible you have to believe you can succeed. Otherwise why bother turning up?

It’s the very same for this Ireland team. Qualification is still very possible. The squad has to believe this and ignore the experts with keyboards who are essentially saying the remainder of the campaign is a foregone conclusion.

Like I said before I will only be too happy for you to come back in October/November and point out how wrong I was.

The problem is we need 6 points against Sweden/Austria. I just cant see that happening.

Imhof Tank

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Like I said before I will only be too happy for you to come back in October/November and point out how wrong I was.

The problem is we need 6 points against Sweden/Austria. I just cant see that happening.

The would be a problem all right ...........if it were true, but we do not need 6 points against Sweden/ Austria.

Yes, we would be relying on favourable results from elsewhere but that is always the way with us and hasnt stopped us reaching the last 2 playoffs without a win home or away against any of our rivals for 2nd place in either 2010 or 2012.

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

The would be a problem all right ...........if it were true, but we do not need 6 points against Sweden/ Austria.

Yes, we would be relying on favourable results from elsewhere but that is always the way with us and hasnt stopped us reaching the last 2 playoffs without a win home or away against any of our rivals for 2nd place in either 2010 or 2012.

Again there is a big difference between now and those 2 groups.

In the the previous 2 qualifiers we required 1 team in each group to fail being Bulgaria and Slovakia.

This time around we need Sweden and Austria to blow up.

Imhof Tank

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Again there is a big difference between now and those 2 groups.

In the the previous 2 qualifiers we required 1 team in each group to fail being Bulgaria and Slovakia.

This time around we need Sweden and Austria to blow up.

I would say we are in a stronger position than Austria as things stand. They have played Kaz twice already and failed to match our result away to them. They have a much tougher run in than us.

The_Kew_Tour

Imhof Tank wrote: »

I would say we are in a stronger position than Austria as things stand. They have played Kaz twice already and failed to match our result away to them. They have a much tougher run in than us.

I hope you're right.

But in the past 10 years we have not put 2 decent back to back performances together (last night was good till last 30) and that is my concern. If we do get 4 points in September I still think we will need to get point in Germany then.

Last night was the chance for us to take hold of the group. Now we have made things very messy.

I think we will get third place, but cant see Austria and Sweden blowing chances to take 3 points in games in injury time.

Last night will come back to haunt us.

I take it that when you say 4 points from September you take us to get beat in Germany? If we were to win the other 2 games which we should that leave us on 19 points. I think that will leave us short personally.

Jarrod

Just so everybody's clear, as things stand 2nd place wouldn't get us into the playoffs. Austria are 2nd in our group and are the second lowest ranked 2nd place team, ahead of only Israel. Our goal difference is considerably worse than Austria's and would have us below Israel. Given that us finishing second would likely come about following numerous draws, there's a good chance 2nd place won't be enough to make the playoffs. FWIW, I don't think we'll finish second. I think it's more than possible but it was also more than possible to win the last two games, the problem was we didn't try to win in Sweden and we tried desperately hard not to draw last night, rather than trying to win.

The_Kew_Tour

Jarrod wrote: »

Just so everybody's clear, as things stand 2nd place wouldn't get us into the playoffs. Austria are 2nd in our group and are the second lowest ranked 2nd place team, ahead of only Israel. Our goal difference is considerably worse than Austria's and would have us below Israel. Given that us finishing second would likely come about following numerous draws, there's a good chance 2nd place won't be enough to make the playoffs. FWIW, I don't think we'll finish second. I think it's more than possible but it was also more than possible to win the last two games, the problem was we didn't try to win in Sweden and we tried desperately hard not to draw last night, rather than trying to win.

That's what people forget.

We got 18 points the last time and were the 8th from 9 teams and got in to Playoff.

That's why Draws at home are killing us.

aramush

RikkFlair wrote: »

I stand corrected. In my defence I've purged those 2 years from my memory :pac:

Haha, you're not the only one!

Imhof Tank

Jarrod wrote: »

Just so everybody's clear, as things stand 2nd place wouldn't get us into the playoffs. Austria are 2nd in our group and are the second lowest ranked 2nd place team, ahead of only Israel. Our goal difference is considerably worse than Austria's and would have us below Israel. Given that us finishing second would likely come about following numerous draws, there's a good chance 2nd place won't be enough to make the playoffs. FWIW, I don't think we'll finish second. I think it's more than possible but it was also more than possible to win the last two games, the problem was we didn't try to win in Sweden and we tried desperately hard not to draw last night, rather than trying to win.

That is mainly because the 2nd place teams in many of the other groups have already played 6 games instead of our and Austria's 5, or Sweden's 4.

Francie Barrett

Imhof Tank wrote: »

We dont "need" to beat Sweden or Austria.

Assuming that we get beaten by Germany again, do you really think we're going to qualify from this group in second place without getting a single win against the first, second and fourth seeded teams?

If Sweden beat Austria, I reckon we're completely fcuked. They'll effectively be 4 points ahead of us (our crappy goal difference).

Imhof Tank

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Assuming that we get beaten by Germany again, do you really think we're going to qualify from this group in second place without getting a single win against the first, second and fourth seeded teams?

If Sweden beat Austria, I reckon we're completely fcuked. They'll effectively be 4 points ahead of us (our crappy goal difference).

Its not impossible. We managed 2nd in the 2010 campaign without a win against Italy, Bulgaria or Montenegro (may not have been seeded 4th but were clearly the 4th best team going into the group, at least).

I can see stalemate between Austria, Sweden and ourselves with all 6 of these games being drawn. Then it comes down to our relative results against Germany and Kaz. Sweden currently have the edge on us after their point against the Germans, but they still have to go to Kaz. We have the edge on Austria I feel as they have already played Kaz twice (and failed to beat them away).

Plenty of football left in this group.

Jarrod

Imhof Tank wrote: »

That is mainly because the 2nd place teams in many of the other groups have already played 6 games instead of our and Austria's 5, or Sweden's 4.

No, it's mainly because we've dropped 7 points already against teams that would count in the ranking of 2nd placed teams (the results against the Faroes won't count). In terms of the '2nd placed teams table' i.e. discounting results against teams currently in 6th place, only Croatia have played 6 games and they have 16 points. Unless we win all our remaining games we won't catch them.

So, onto the teams that have played 5 games. We are 5 points behind both Greece and France, both of whom have played their top team twice, so we're highly unlikely to better their points totals. We're 3 points behind Hungary but have a far inferior goal difference but yes, we could catch them, we'd likely have to beat either Sweden or Austria though.

Now the teams that have played 4 games. England, we'd have to get better results, to the tune of two points, than they do in what I would consider tougher games, yes Montenegro could finish second in that group but we won't catch them either. Israel are currently second, ahead of us on goal difference, I reckon Portugal are more likely to finish second however and with their remaining fixtures would finish well clear of us.

That leaves Iceland. Assuming the bottom placed team in their group doesn't change we'd have to better their results by either a point or by a goal difference of 5.

So our current position among 2nd placed teams (if we were one) isn't a false one at all. I don't think we'll finish 2nd, I'd love us to, but I think it's unlikely. If we do though, it'll be touch and go as to whether we actually make the playoffs.

bohsboy

Big problem I can see is the last series of games. Germany will be well qualified at that stage and may field a second string side in Stockholm againt Sweden. I can see the Swedes picking up at least a point.

gnfnrhead

Anything less than four wins out of five and we'll need a miracle. No point in saying we could finish second if X, Y and Z happen, that wont be good enough in the 2nd placed table. We need four wins.