Bird Flu Is Back....H7N9

Thrill

I've been following this from the start, when China announced the first three cases. Then four more were announced. Now the number is up to 43. 11 have died and scientists are worried.

For one thing H7N9 shows no symptoms in birds, so it can spread undetected. Its been detected in chickens, pigeons and quail.

It infects people easier than similar viruses.

H7N9 has a mammalian mutation meaning it is one step closer to human-to-human infection.

Of the first three victims, only two worked with or had contact with birds.

vaccines for other H7 viruses are having very little effect.

A vaccine may take months to create.

If anyone is thinking of going to China, you may want to hold off for a bit. So far it hasnt spread outside China but Asian countries are making preparations in case it does. Hopefully it remains contained.

The H7N9 strain, which is a new virus formed as a result of two others merging their genetic material, has features of viruses that are known to jump easily from birds to mammals, and a mutation that may help it attach to cells in the respiratory tract, said Ron Fouchier, a professor of molecular virology at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands, in a telephone interview yesterday.


“That’s certainly not good news,” said Fouchier, who reviewed a gene sequencing of H7N9 published by Chinese health authorities. “This virus really doesn’t look like a bird virus anymore; it looks like a mammalian virus.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/new-bird-flu-seen-having-some-markers-of-airborne-killer.html

seven_eleven

Kind of want to play Pandemic 2 now.

brummytom

Great stuff, there hasn't been a potentially devastating disease for us to be terrified about for a few months now. Will this be like the last bird flu, where we can call in sick to work with a cold 'just to be on the safe side'?

Kylo Ren

Everyone to Madagascar!

Jester252

Keno 92 wrote: »

Everyone to Madagascar!

Its too late the borders are closed.

B.A._Baracus

I'll be honest I watched the movie Contagion and yeah stuff like this gets my full attention now :pac:

Ranicand

I smell something foul here.

pragmatic1

Ranicand wrote: »

I smell something foul here.

Yeah same here. I'd like to keep abreast of the situation.

uch

Quack Quack

Ranicand

pragmatic1 wrote: »

Yeah same here. I'd like to keep abreast of the situation.

Lets keep going on a wing and a prayer.

Praetorian Saighdiuir

Iv been saying it for years. If we dont bring in legislation to make it illegal for naked birds to be swanning aroud we are fupped!

Of course they are going to get the flu if they are in the nip in all that weather we are having.

The Dagda

Ah i remember when flu's had vowels. Then you knew you were sick! The good ole days...

Gatling

Oh for fecks sake
Only over swine flu 12 days in isolation because of it,

Ranicand

Gatling wrote: »

Oh for fecks sake
Only over swine flu 12 days in isolation because of it,

That's what you get for making a pig of yourself.:D

Jhcx

Zombies? Or are we safe?

Turtwig

Keno 92 wrote: »

Everyone to Madagascar!

Damn borders are already closed to me.:(

Thrill

I didn't think much of this at first as I thought they had a cure for bird flu already. Seems this one is a bit tougher to get rid of.

As long as they keep it confined to China until a cure is developed then there should be no worries, unless you're living there.

A colonel in the Chinese army has accused the U.S. of causing it, saying its biological warfare.

Ranicand

Thrill wrote: »

As long as they keep it confined to China until a cure is developed then there should be no worries, unless you're living there.

Yes because the Chinese have imposed a no fly zone near their borders for infected birds.:p

kraggy

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I'll be honest I watched the movie Contagion and yeah stuff like this gets my full attention now :pac:

Contagion got my full attention too. For being a pile of bollocks.

B.A._Baracus

kraggy wrote: »

Contagion got my full attention too. For being a pile of bollocks.

That makes no sense :pac:

Turtwig

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Aw naw! That's crazy talk fool! :pac:
*Bites a snickers*

FYP:pac:

Thrill

Ranicand wrote: »

Yes because the Chinese have imposed a no fly zone near their borders for infected birds.:p

The host is still unknown. China are now checking pigs in an attempt to track the host down.

Around 16,000 pigs and 1000 ducks were found floating dead in rivers not long before this outbreak. The cause of their deaths is unknown.

Another case of H7N9 has now turned up. This time in Beijing, its first case. A 7 year old girl.

OneArt

Jhcx wrote: »

Zombies? Or are we safe?

It's bird flu. So flying zombies. That shoot infected birds out of their mouths.

Doctor Jimbob

Thrill wrote: »

I've been following this from the start, when China announced the first three cases. Then four more were announced. Now the number is up to 43. 11 have died and scientists are worried.

For one thing H7N9 shows no symptoms in birds, so it can spread undetected. Its been detected in chickens, pigeons and quail.

It infects people easier than similar viruses.

H7N9 has a mammalian mutation meaning it is one step closer to human-to-human infection.

Of the first three victims, only two worked with or had contact with birds.

vaccines for other H7 viruses are having very little effect.

A vaccine may take months to create.

If anyone is thinking of going to China, you may want to hold off for a bit. So far it hasnt spread outside China but Asian countries are making preparations in case it does. Hopefully it remains contained.





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/new-bird-flu-seen-having-some-markers-of-airborne-killer.html

Lol.

The Backwards Man

How many people die in work related accidents in China every day?

Alter-Ego

Worrying scientists is not cool! Something must be done.

Thrill

There are now 61 cases of H7N9, up from the 43 infections in the OP.The death toll has increased to 13.

Chinese scientists say the H7N9 virus can mutate 8 times faster than normal, faster than any virus except HIV. Russia has imposed some travel restrictions on its border with China and has advised its citizens against travel to the region.

The most worrying development in regards to containing this virus is that a new case has been found in Beijing, a boy aged 4, who has tested positive for H7N9 and is asymptomatic. He is showing no symptoms of the virus. Incidentally, this boy lives across the road from the 7 year old girl who caught it earlier and he was only tested because his parents sell poultry.

Beijing med-experts concluded: the boy is an H7N9 virus carrier. In order to ensure the boy's well being, the health authority has sent him to Ditan Hospital for further observation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/symptom-free-bird-flu-case-suggests-wider-h7n9-spread.html

Symptom-Free Bird Flu Case Suggests Wider H7N9 Spread


Bird flu was found in a 4-year-old Beijing boy who has no symptoms of the infection, health authorities said, suggesting more people may be catching the H7N9 influenza virus than reported.

“With asymptomatic cases around, I think everything changes,” said Ian Mackay, an associate professor of clinical virology at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, in a telephone interview today. “There has been a spike in pneumonia cases that have drawn the health officials’ attention, but the virus may have been going around as a normal cold.”

Map of current spread

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=16277&d=1365975973

Source: flutrackers.com

Celly Smunt

Madagascar

Pherekydes

The Backwards Man wrote: »

How many people die in work related accidents in China every day?

Will work-related accidents spread here?

Thrill

The number of H7N9 cases increased to 77, including 16 deaths.


H7N9 evolving but has not fully mutated, may not necessarily become transmissible among humans, but it does have a mutated gene that makes such a possibility greater.
Health authorities in China say they do not know exactly how the virus is spreading, but it is believed to be crossing from birds to humans.
International experts are preparing to head to China to probe the outbreak.
Pigs ruled out as source/host.
4 year old "carrier" still showing no symptoms.
H7N9 detected in wild pigeons.
Samples of the virus is being sent to labs around the world.

Seoul toughens quarantine of passengers from China.
China’s poultry sector records losses of €1.2 billion in the week after the virus began infecting humans. China tells population to continue eating chicken. Population refusing.

China appears to have done a great job of containing the virus thus far. Heres hoping it continues.


Map of spread up to April 15 (64 cases)

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=16278&d=1366085446

Source of map: flutrackers.com


http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=researchers-agree-puzzling-new-bird-flu-should-be-taken-seriously


Oh, nearly forgot. Madagascar.



.

Pretty annoying living in Hanoi and teaching so many kids every week. Really hoping this thing doesn't get out of hand.

schnitzelEater

More scaremongering about something that will have no effect on us.

Baneblade

schnitzelEater wrote: »

More scaremongering about something that will have no effect on us.

so far, all it takes is one person on a plane

I love that the OP's name is a type of bird food.

That is all.

beans

schnitzelEater wrote: »

More scaremongering about something that will have no effect on us.

<tinfoilhat>
It'll have an effect on the stockpiles of short-dated Tamiflu sitting in the Roche storehouses!
</tinfoilhat>

VinLieger

Arent we well overdue for a pandemic anyway? At least thats what all the sciencey folk were saying during the swine flu hype

IvyTheTerrible

Has it actually started spreading from human to human yet, or is it just bird to human so far? Not toooo much to be worried about til it goes human to human.

Phill Ewinn

Eating chicken nuggets. Like a boss.

spank_inferno

lets all buy shares in Roche Pharma

Thrill

Current infections 88. Death toll 17

This fascinating virus continues to puzzle scientists. China and the WHO say it is transmitted by poultry but the numbers are not adding up according to many studying it.

Of the 47,801 samples collected from more than 1,000 poultry markets, habitats, farms and slaughterhouses across the country, 39 samples have tested positive for the virus, the Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement.

Only 39 birds tested positive (one of those was a wild pigeon)
88 humans have tested positive.

More than double the amount of humans have H7N9 than poultry?

There's either something wrong with their testing and sampling or another species is spreading it. The source/host has still not been found.

Then there's this

40% Of Chinese Sick With H7N9 Bird Flu Had No Contact With Poultry



As for Human-to-Human infection, this from the U.S. CDC.

There is still no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, which would certainly propel us into pandemic territory.

There are, however, suspected cases of limited human-to-human spread that investigators are looking into but this is not wholly unexpected and limited human-to-human transmission does not automatically mean a pandemic is nigh.

Also from the WHO

We are not near a H7N9 pandemic yet but we need to understand better how the virus works in order to control the outbreak.

Containment still looks really good.

Map of spread, zoom out for a better view. (the pink markers are H1N1 infections)

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=200073663810992252651.0004d96b6096833780da3&ie=UTF8&t=m&ll=33.100745,117.883301&spn=6.440409,10.678711&z=6&source=embed

NuckingFacker

Good. I have pallets of "Bird flu" kits sitting in storage from the last "outbreak". About as much use as all them "snow-shoe-grippers" everyone tried selling. 11 died? Gis a bell when it's 11,000,000.

35,000 Americans died last year in car crashes. Funnily enough, no-ones panicking about getting a "car-crash" vaccine. More scare-mongering. Next they'll be saying someone posted ricin to Enda Kenny, you know, that ricin stuff, the undetectable, pretty much invisible poison.

shruikan2553

oh yay, yet another flu for people to over react about. When it starts killing lots of people without pre existing medical problems in a country with good health care I'll start to actually think of it as a possible threat.

Thrill

Its funny the way people think that a virus only becomes important once it starts killing people by the hundreds or thousands.

The most important time is when it first appears, when as few people as possible have it. Keeping infections and the death toll down, containing the virus, finding the best treatment until a vaccine is found, finding the source or host.

This is the most vital time-period when a virus appears. Right now. If the Chinese get this right and keep it contained and prevent infections then that would be the big story of H7N9, though it wont make many headlines.

IvyTheTerrible

Thrill wrote: »

Its funny the way people think that a virus only becomes important once it starts killing people by the hundreds or thousands.

The most important time is when it first appears, when as few people as possible have it. Keeping infections and the death toll down, containing the virus, finding the best treatment until a vaccine is found, finding the source or host.

This is the most vital time-period when a virus appears. Right now. If the Chinese get this right and keep it contained and prevent infections then that would be the big story of H7N9, though it wont make many headlines.

Ironically, if that does happen, most people will be just saying "Ah it was just hype over nothing" </shrug>

Mr Benevolent

Baneblade wrote: »

so far, all it takes is one person on a plane

No it doesn't, it's not transmittable between humans yet. Incidentally, it's a nasty stain of flu, 5-7 days incubation, then 24 hours between full health and severe pneumonia. Dangerous stuff, as mortality from H7N9 is 19.7% right now. That will probably drop dramatically, but still, not good. Mortality from flu is usually around 2%.

Wibbs

Thrill wrote: »

Its funny the way people think that a virus only becomes important once it starts killing people by the hundreds or thousands.

The most important time is when it first appears, when as few people as possible have it. Keeping infections and the death toll down, containing the virus, finding the best treatment until a vaccine is found, finding the source or host.

This is the most vital time-period when a virus appears. Right now. If the Chinese get this right and keep it contained and prevent infections then that would be the big story of H7N9, though it wont make many headlines.

+1. We may be flippant about it, but if a bad flu kicks off we'd be in real trouble. The pandemic of 1918 killed between 50 and 100 million of the world's population. That's the tally of the whole of World War Two on all sides. Growing up I heard stories of the time from elderly relatives of people dying in high numbers here in Ireland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RouroRPHDzI

Yes we have better medical knowledge these days, but even with all of that we could be very quickly overwhelmed if a strain like the 1918 one kicked off. Add in increasing antibiotic resistance regarding secondary infections and we'd be in a right mess. The other thing about many of these strains is they tend to be more deadly to the young and healthy. Their own immune systems kill them. Older people and young kids because their immune systems aren't so strong have more chance of survival. I recall reading of an Inuit settlement in Canada IIRC, which was very isolated and very badly hit through the 1918 pandemic and when people got to the settlement they afterwards, they found mostly old people and kids left. Scary stuff.

There are viruses and other disease agents out there that could mutate and cause incredible damage. We forget that in Europe for the guts of 500 years up to the 18th century there were rolling "plagues" that killed millions. Not just the plague/Black death either. Judging by the records there were all sorts of odd diseases with varying symptoms they lumped under the plague title. One was the sweating disease in Tudor times that did in thousands. In one way Europe and Europeans are "lucky". We've had these rolling plagues and each one of us are descendants of those who survived them, which seems to have given us some immunity, compared to other populations. EG HIV. HIV has hit Europe and those of European descent a lot less hard than in Asia and particularly Africa and some of this seems to be down to local protective mutations in Europeans. Indeed there are Europeans who are essentially immune to HIV, while others need much more exposure to get it. Another example was the colonisation of the new world. European diseases killed many millions of the native Americans. Diseases that to Europeans were just accepted and rarely caused death, measles, chicken pox etc, even the common cold.

Thrill

H7N9 has spread to Taiwan. A man has tested positive and is in critical condition. Three health care workers who were in contact with him are now suffering respiratory illness (a H7N9 symptom), despite wearing protective gear.

I'm hoping the three health care workers are just suffering from normal flu, otherwise it means this H7N9 virus is definitely Human-to-Human. All others that were in contact with him are being closely monitored (138 people). 4 have passed the 7-day incubation period without showing symptoms.

This man claims he had no contact with birds or poultry while in Suzhou, China.

The number of cases of H7N9 infections is 108. 22 have died and there have been 12 recoveries.

H7N9 appears to be mostly hitting the older age group (average age 61) compared to previous versions of bird flu, where the average age was people in their mid-to-late 20s.

There's a media clamp down in China for the past couple of weeks but only since last week has China decreed that media info has to be cleared by the state before publication.
Dozens of bloggers have been arrested to prevent "scare stories".

Over the past few days many countries,including the U.S. and the U.K., have told their hospitals to be on the alert for the virus.

Japans measures seem to be the strictest I've seen so far.


There's still no clue as to the source but the WHO claims birds the most likely. How its spreading is also a puzzle as a lot of people have had no contact with poultry.

WHO: H7N9 virus 'one of the most lethal so far'

Hong Kong (CNN) -- As the death toll from China's bird flu outbreak rose to 22 with news of another victim in eastern Zhejiang Province, the World Health Organization warned the H7N9 virus was one of the most lethal that doctors and medical investigators had faced in recent years.

"This is definitely one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we have seen so far."

Fukuda, meanwhile, said WHO officials "are at the beginning of our understanding of this virus."
"(The situation remains) complex, difficult and it is evolving," he said.


So far there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, the authorities say.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/24/world/asia/china-birdflu/index.html?eref=edition&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


Containment not looking so good now. Hardly surprising though, given how hard H7N9 is to detect.


Stats/map
http://www.bloomberg.com/image/i5t7sM8pnuoI.png

Madagascar.

Awesomeness

I an living in Dalian in North East China. Interestingly a number of my chinese friends think the number of infected people has been much higher than what the government is stating - Not the first time thats happened.

On another note I have a colleague heading to Ireland next week so hopefully he does not become infected. Look out for him - hes the chinese lad

smash

Why does this stuff always happen in Asia first?

Yakult

smash wrote: »

Why does this stuff always happen in Asia first?

Probably to do with high population and proximity to dirty animals. Could be wrong, but just guessing!

OpenYourEyes

Yakult wrote: »

Probably to do with high population and proximity to dirty animals. Could be wrong, but just guessing!

Supposedly they farm poultry and geese in huge numbers in not-very-hygenic conditions, so loads of the farms and lakes they use are ideal breeding grounds for bacteria and perfect conditions for viruses to spread and mutate.